IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #28

[Reverie]

IMO, it all started behind the stores on Lafayette, which backed on to Brovan Blvd.

There, the perp was able to watch all the comings and goings of WC and L at the Collins' home.

As well, the perp was able to observe the activities around the Collins' household on Brovan Blvd., HC, DC and when they were home and regular routine(s) with their children.

Perp was able to watch L and E take their bike rides, maybe followed them on a few occasions to see where they rode.

Watching, fantasizing, planning and then made the move.
K
MOO

Thank you for sharing this! I love reading theories about Lyric and Elizabeth's disappearance. Makes me think outside the box. :seeya:

 

[shoregirl]

No, I do not believe the police have deliberately misled the public about the timeline of the children. What would be the point? LE is trying to get to the truth. I don't think they would lie about the timeline. It's pretty much all they/we have to go on the girls' case. :sigh:

I don't beleive they did either. I do feel that the timeline (particularly in the beginning) was fluid. It could change one way or another based on the information provided. The beginning of the timeline was based on Grandma's information and very little after that was anything concrete. In fact the only two facts were the finding of the bikes and the videotape. BTW I was just banned from that other forum for a "personal attack" and told to "Go back to Websleuths and *****". Are we in high school? A moderator over there has banned me but allows attacks on the family speculating on child molestation and the last straw for me was speculation that they had sold the children. I just want to follow the case..period. In a forum that has some sort of structure. So I guess this was important enough for someone from here to report me? Unbelievable

 

[otto]

Here's a map comparing the Evansdale bike trail to the cyclist's route and the possible routes taken by the children. McCoy came up earlier when discussing possible routes used by the perp after abducting the children. The Evansdale Nature Trail has often been discussed as one of the children's routes - in particular, via the Fareway Grocery Store.

ETA: times

 

[Marilynilpa]

IMO, it all started behind the stores on Lafayette, which backed on to Brovan Blvd.

There, the perp was able to watch all the comings and goings of WC and L at the Collins' home.

As well, the perp was able to observe the activities around the Collins' household on Brovan Blvd., HC, DC and when they were home and regular routine(s) with their children.

Perp was able to watch L and E take their bike rides, maybe followed them on a few occasions to see where they rode.

Watching, fantasizing, planning and then made the move.

MOO

Your theory makes sense to me.

Also, if the perp observed the girls he may also have spoken to them. The girls may have felt they "knew" him, so when they saw him at the lake they weren't suspicious of him. JMO.

 

[otto]

From Tammy, who was there -

When my mother and I, the grandmother who was babysitting, when my mother and I went on our search for them, and this was at about a quarter to 3 -- and keep in mind the last they were seen was at 11:30 a.m., when they told mom they were going on the bike ride. So that is the last time they were for sure seen. And now, it`s going on to -- it`s getting close to being a quarter to 3.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/16/ijvm.01.html[quote/]

Yes, you're right, she did not actually run away. But she packed her bags and headed out the door, also LE were called out when she and her other cousin briefly disappeared a few days earlier.

My point is, LE considered her to have a history of attempts to push boundaries.

LE officially declared the disappearance as an abduction via press conference on 30 July. This change of wording changed the entire focus of the investigation.

Dated 27 July -

FBI agents classified the girls’ disappearance as an abduction last week. This step changes the investigation from a search-and-locate to a criminal probe, said William Moulder, retired Des Moines police chief.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...onfirms-missing-Iowa-girls-timeline?Frontpage

I was merely attempting to defend those who innocently spoke on camera, before this was declared officially a crime. They didn't know that it was a crime at that stage, no one in town did except perhaps LE.

It doesn't really matter what Tammy and Wylma said, the video captures the children at 12:15.

Police were not involved when Lyric and her cousin were late returning from the park.

Hopefully, people in Evansdale were listening to the news about the children's disappearance on July 14, and did not need to wait for an official FBI declaration that they were abducted. On July 14, local police declared their disappearance suspicious and possibly an abduction.

 

[SapphireSteel]

It doesn't really matter what Tammy and Wylma said, the video captures the children at 12:15.

Police were not involved when Lyric and her cousin were late returning from the park.

Hopefully, people in Evansdale were listening to the news about the children's disappearance on July 14, and did not need to wait for an official FBI declaration that they were abducted. On July 14, local police declared their disappearance suspicious and possibly an abduction.

Do you have a link for that?

TIA.

 

[otto]

Do you have a link for that?

TIA.

The link was posted by Considering in post #1470:

July 14, 2012
"Evansdale police chief Kent Smock says his department is treating the case as “a suspicious disappearance” — meaning abduction is a possibility."

http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

 

[SapphireSteel]

The link was posted by Considering in post #1470:

July 14, 2012
"Evansdale police chief Kent Smock says his department is treating the case as “a suspicious disappearance” — meaning abduction is a possibility."

http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

It is SOP for most police forces to be trained on the FBI's CARP as part of their training. CARP is considered the world standard blueprint of missing children investigations and it is part of LE training curriculums worldwide.

CARP outlines exactly what procedures should be taken, and when. It essentially outlines a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" plan of action.

As far as I can see, LE in this case followed CARP to a T.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/51536616/FBI-Child-Abduction-Response-Plan

It's easy to go "LE would've done X," or "LE would've thought X" but the plain fact is, LE are privy to an entire warehouse of information that we are not, including past histories of various players, rumour, and certain difficult social dynamics within the town.

A lot of what small town LE do daily never results in arrests. They deal with lost cats and "borrowed" chainsaws, family fall outs and traffic violations. They know an awful lot about the locals that has never even hit the courts.

 

[Bootsctr]

I don't beleive they did either. I do feel that the timeline (particularly in the beginning) was fluid. It could change one way or another based on the information provided. The beginning of the timeline was based on Grandma's information and very little after that was anything concrete. In fact the only two facts were the finding of the bikes and the videotape. BTW I was just banned from that other forum for a "personal attack" and told to "Go back to Websleuths and *****". Are we in high school? A moderator over there has banned me but allows attacks on the family speculating on child molestation and the last straw for me was speculation that they had sold the children. I just want to follow the case..period. In a forum that has some sort of structure. So I guess this was important enough for someone from here to report me? Unbelievable

Welcome back! Sorry you were treated so badly. Glad to have you aboard with us here at WebSleuths! :seeya:

 

[otto]

It is SOP for most police forces to be trained on the FBI's CARP as part of their training. CARP is considered the world standard blueprint of missing children investigations and it is part of LE training curriculums worldwide.

CARP outlines exactly what procedures should be taken, and when. It essentially outlines a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" plan of action.

As far as I can see, LE in this case followed CARP to a T.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/51536616/FBI-Child-Abduction-Response-Plan

It's easy to go "LE would've done X," or "LE would've thought X" but the plain fact is, LE are privy to an entire warehouse of information that we are not, including past histories of various players, rumour, and certain difficult social dynamics within the town.

A lot of what small town LE do daily never results in arrests. They deal with lost cats and "borrowed" chainsaws, family fall outs and traffic violations. They know an awful lot about the locals that has never even hit the courts.

I think everyone in Evansdale should have known that the disappearance of the children was suspcious on July 13. What I am bit confused about is why anyone would want to downplay the fact that the disappearance was taken very seriously by police, FBI and search organizations by 8 PM on July 13, 2012.

We know for a fact that the people that participate in this forum knew that the disappearance was suspicious by 9:15 on July 13. By 10 AM on July 14, I knew this was a very serious situation and didn't expect a good outcome, and I don't live in Evansdale.

 

[Bootsctr]

lol I like Snapped.

me too! I like the biographies too which is on same channel as Snapped. Local poster had commented about going to eat at Waterloo the same day the girls disappeared. I guess with Waterloo being the larger city in the area, you have a bigger and better selection of restaurants. I was startled to learn that John Wayne Gacy had managed a restaurant in Waterloo, Iowa. Learn something every day.

In 1964, the Nunn-Bush Shoe Company transferred Gacy to Springfield, Illinois, initially to work as a salesman,[17] although Gacy was subsequently promoted to manager of his department. In March of that year, he became engaged to Marlynn Myers, co-worker within the department he managed. After a nine-month courtship, the couple married in September 1964. Marlynn Myers' father subsequently purchased three Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurants in Waterloo, Iowa and he and his wife moved to Waterloo in order for him to manage the restaurants, with the understanding that Gacy and his wife would move into Marlynn's parents' home.[23] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne_Gacy

My apologies! I realize this is off topic.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Your theory makes sense to me.

Also, if the perp observed the girls he may also have spoken to them. The girls may have felt they "knew" him, so when they saw him at the lake they weren't suspicious of him. JMO.

This brings me back to when and where they were abducted.

If they went at the lake, as it appears, the perp must've had foresight that they would bike straight into that lane.

How did he know this?

Say he sees them and watches them, maybe even knows them somehow. He would be following them, not waiting for them as appears to be the case.

So how did he get in place in the trap, immediately before the girls rode into it, if he was following them?

 

[RNER]

The link was posted by Considering in post #1470:

July 14, 2012
"Evansdale police chief Kent Smock says his department is treating the case as “a suspicious disappearance” — meaning abduction is a possibility."

http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

There is a big difference between "suspicious" (the belief that something is wrong) and "abduction" (the taking of a person against their will).

IMO...just because a disappearance is suspicious, doesn't automatically imply that it is related to an abduction.

 

[otto]

There is a big difference between "suspicious" (the belief that something is wrong) and "abduction" (the taking of a person against their will).

IMO...just because a disappearance is suspicious, doesn't automatically imply that it is related to an abduction.

The below statement is a direct quote from police, so apparently Evansdale police did believe on July 14 that the disappearance was suspicious and that it was possibly an abduction. Although I would agree that one does not necessarily imply the other, in this case police informed the public that the one did imply the other.

"Evansdale police chief Kent Smock says his department is treating the case as “a suspicious disappearance” — meaning abduction is a possibility."

 

[SapphireSteel]

Again at the risk of being repetitive, CARP demands that LE treat all child disappearances as suspicious in the first instance, particularly if an "at risk" child involved - which Lyric was.

That's the "prepare for the worst" part.

Following CARP is best practice. It doesn't necessarily follow that LE believe the girls were randomly abducted, but they have to prepare for that as SOP.

 

[otto]

Again at the risk of being repetitive, CARP demands that LE treat all child disappearances as suspicious in the first instance, particularly if an "at risk" child involved - which Lyric was.

That's the "prepare for the worst" part.

Following CARP is best practice. It doesn't necessarily follow that LE believe the girls were randomly abducted, but they have to prepare for that as SOP.

Regardless of standard protocols regarding missing children, in this case we know that police informed the public on July 14 that the disappearance of the children was both suspicious and possibly an abduction. They were right.

 

[shoregirl]

Welcome back! Sorry you were treated so badly. Glad to have you aboard with us here at WebSleuths! :seeya:

Thanks. I will put my big girl panties on and stay on topic. I look forward to discussing the case with everyone. I imagine there are alot of my old buddies on here.

 

[foxbluff]

The below statement is a direct quote from police, so apparently Evansdale police did believe on July 14 that the disappearance was suspicious and that it was possibly an abduction. Although I would agree that one does not necessarily imply the other, in this case police informed the public that the one did imply the other.

"Evansdale police chief Kent Smock says his department is treating the case as “a suspicious disappearance” — meaning abduction is a possibility."

BBM - Isn't this a remark by the reporter rather than a portion of Smock's quote? :waitasec:
http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

 

[shoregirl]

:welcomeback:

Thanks!

 

[otto]

BBM - Isn't this a remark by the reporter rather than a portion of Smock's quote? :waitasec:
http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

It's all one sentence.

Everyone that reads this forum could have known by 9 PM on July 13 that the disappearance was suspicious and possibly an abduction, so we can use this fact to demonstrate that everyone in Evansdale probably knew it too.

Why is it important to attempt to demonstrate that the disappearance of eight and ten year old girls was perceived by police as not suspicious, not an abduction and normal? Nothing about police statements and activities supports that.