We've spent so much time looking at the cyclist's remarks to the newspaper, but we haven't really looked at Mr Carpenter's comments on video (media). First of all, his timeline is consistent with the police timeline. He said that he saw the girls cycling on his street, Lake Avenue, between 12:00 and 3:00. We know that police have been able to narrow down that timeline to between 12:30 and 1:00, as they released a statement in September letting the public know that there was information that the children were at Elmer/Gilbert/Arbutus (also Lake Avenue) between 12:30-1:00. That is completely consistent with Mr Carpenter's statements.
We also know that Mr Carpenter recognized Elizabeth because he and his wife regularly saw Elizabeth cycling on the street in the evening. He said that Elizabeth regularly cycled to the end of Lake Avenue (to Arbutus) and back. We also have a statement from the great grandmother of a close friend of Elizabeth (who lives near the lake) stating that Elizabeth visited often.
The trip from Brovan to Lake Avenue would have been a normal bike ride for Elizabeth, so there is no reason to assume that anyone lured them to that point. If we accept that Elizabeth and Lyric cycled to Lake Avenue, travelling South to Arbutus, then the only possibility is that they were abducted exactly where their bikes were found, or at the entrance to Maiden Lane and their bikes were staged.
I rather doubt that their bikes were staged, as it is too risky to be seen with two bikes at the same time that two children vanish. That suggests that the children cycled directly to the drainage gate, parked their bikes, went through the gate, and vanished at the water's edge. It's possible that they were forced to walk in the shallow water towards Maiden Lane.
That pretty much brings me to the point of there actually being an incredible coincidence where a predator was at that location where the children were at the same time ... and I bet that this predator had a habit of going there several times before this happened. I suspect that the first contact between the predator and the children could have been at the corner of Lake Avenue and Arbutus.