IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #8

[otto]

I believe he regularly rides around that lake as part of an exercise routine.

I'm surprised he didn't actually see the wheels spinning.

We had a boy kidnapped here in Australia, Daniel Morcombe. One minute he was standing at the side of a busy highway, LITERALLY 2 minutes later he was gone.

And yes, people saw something. The public wasn't notified of this until much, much later, for whatever reason.

But that's how quickly and quietly it can happen.

The bikes were found between two fences. It wasn't an ideal location for one person to grab two girls, force them to leave their bikes behind and trek down the path to where the double fence ends. If a perp wanted to abduct the girls between two tall fences, there should have been two perps that cornered the girls between the fences and walked them towards the trail/lane through the woods. Was there time for that to happen between 12:15 and 12:27? If we take 5 minutes away for walking down the path, that leaves 12:15 - 12:22; seven minutes to make the ride. That has to be pre-planned ... if that is the case, there should be something on the social media pages, email, or cell phone.

 

[otto]

I had not read that, can you please post a link?

tia.

... "bikes that were arranged differently than how the girl's bikes were found" ... The cyclist has said that at least one of two bikes was lying on the path at 12:27. Police have said that the bikes were found leaning against a fence.

Which one haven't you read?

 

[BelieveinUFO]

What about this scenario:

The kidnappers first placed their cycles at that location knowing the girls were riding in the neighborhood. Then went hurriedly and abducted them and then two guys rode that cycle to that place and then swapped them for their original cycles to come out.

The abductors could have even rode very close to that place (somewhere from intersection of Grand Blvd and Arbutus Ave - secluded place where Cedar Valley Trail also goes).

So did anyone notice others riding that "hot" afternoon? TG could have seen someone riding the trail. The guy who was fishing could have seen someone.

If this was the case then more than 1 abductor - planned effort - possibly targeted kidnapping/abduction or known to the girls very well.

 

[BelieveinUFO]

... "bikes that were arranged differently than how the girl's bikes were found" ... The cyclist has said that at least one of two bikes was lying on the path at 12:27. Police have said that the bikes were found leaning against a fence.

Which one haven't you read?

Those words "arranged differently" is misleading and possibly triggered the confusion.

Different people say it differently and I know that is the way you put it. But that is not mentioned in any articles except that it was stated that the cyclist mentioned that he had to swerve in order to avoid them while going in the trail. Well, that should clear the confusion.

 

[otto]

What if they were abducted just after 12.15, say 12.17? They never got to the park at all, their bikes did? Entirely possible by car with more than one abductor.

If the bikes got there later, then the swerving cyclist didn't see their bikes.

Did the the swerving cyclist see their bikes? There simply isn't enough time for all of that to happen without introducing all sorts of extra people. Even if there are two vehicles, two abductors, one grabs the girls, the other grabs the bikes, one takes the girls to a secluded location, the other takes two girls bikes and a purse halfway down a double fenced area, it's hardly enough time. It would have to be highly organized to anticipate that two vehicles would be needed to kidnap these two children ... they had to realize that they needed an extra vehicle because the girls would be riding bikes, and that they needed to serepticiously ditch the bikes at a secluded area within 7 minutes. It seems unlikely. I'm leaning towards the bikes being put there later than the swerving cyclist's sighting.

 

[nikb]

I believe he regularly rides around that lake as part of an exercise routine.

I'm surprised he didn't actually see the wheels spinning.

We had a boy kidnapped here in Australia, Daniel Morcombe. One minute he was standing at the side of a busy highway, LITERALLY 2 minutes later he was gone.

And yes, people saw something. The public wasn't notified of this until much, much later, for whatever reason.

But that's how quickly and quietly it can happen.

That's just scary.

 

[writer7]

Close, but one correction -- Dan is facing 5 counts that carry 45 years EACH. So he turned down a plea deal that would have guaranteed him 5 years -- and now risks 5x45 (225?) years in jail. I'm sure those would be served concurrently, but still - it makes the chance of parole or early release less likely. So again -- WHY?! Dan had to have known that something was going to happen on 7/13. Someone had to have made threats, or given him some other really good reason.

(Of course, then I remember that he was taking a nap when this all went down, so maybe I'm wrong.)

IMO

This may fall in a weird place because I'm behind by many pages. Apologies if so!

I think maybe he is addicted to meth, which he can't do in prison. It would be like facing rehab when someone wasn't ready, but worse.

He probably made an idiotic legal decision because he couldn't bear the thought of jail (and no meth!) happening right then, imho.

He just needs more time and he'll kick it and fix up everything else too... those sorts of addict thoughts.

 

[SapphireSteel]

If the bikes got there later, then the swerving cyclist didn't see their bikes.

Did the the swerving cyclist see their bikes? There simply isn't enough time for all of that to happen without introducing all sorts of extra people. Even if there are two vehicles, two abductors, one grabs the girls, the other grabs the bikes, one takes the girls to a secluded location, the other takes two girls bikes and a purse halfway down a double fenced area, it's hardly enough time. It would have to be highly organized to anticipate that two vehicles would be needed to kidnap these two children ... they had to realize that they needed an extra vehicle because the girls would be riding bikes, and that they needed to serepticiously ditch the bikes at a secluded area within 7 minutes. It seems unlikely. I'm leaning towards the bikes being put there later than the swerving cyclist's sighting.

It sure does seem unlikely, but it explains everything. There are lots of hangers on around this story that we don't even know about yet, but LE do.

Even if TG is mistaken in his times (the 12.20 came originally from fb I believe, 12.27 is being bandyed about too, I suspect it's probably somewhere in the middle), it remains a fact that no one else saw those girls at the lake. No one, either earlier, or later.

No one saw an abduction, there have been no BOLOs for individuals or vehicles...nothing.

No one saw anything, and no one heard anything either, which LE have confirmed in this case, so whenever it was done it was done quickly and quietly.

:ufo:

 

[SapphireSteel]

If the bikes got there later, then the swerving cyclist didn't see their bikes.

Did the the swerving cyclist see their bikes? There simply isn't enough time for all of that to happen without introducing all sorts of extra people. Even if there are two vehicles, two abductors, one grabs the girls, the other grabs the bikes, one takes the girls to a secluded location, the other takes two girls bikes and a purse halfway down a double fenced area, it's hardly enough time. It would have to be highly organized to anticipate that two vehicles would be needed to kidnap these two children ... they had to realize that they needed an extra vehicle because the girls would be riding bikes, and that they needed to serepticiously ditch the bikes at a secluded area within 7 minutes. It seems unlikely. I'm leaning towards the bikes being put there later than the swerving cyclist's sighting.

Why are two vehicles needed?

All that is needed is one person who they know and trust, and they will go willingly.

Add in two accomplices who offer to ride their bikes home for them, and off they go, quite happily, to the surprise party.

The accomplices ride the bikes to the park, dump them, leave on foot.

See? One car.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I am trying to fill in some gaps and I have a couple of theories. I also had a very scary thought last night as I looked over some information and lack thereof. I generally take the shortest and most logical route when trying to make sense of things. It is hard in this case with such a lack of information released by LE. I mean the clothing and description of bikes is extremly important when asking people to look for the girls. I just can't wrap my head around why we are not given this bit of info. The description of the bikes are not even on the missing posters. WHY? Yes, they have the bikes, but aren't they asking who might have seen the girls on these bikes? Wouldn't the description of the bikes be vital? Why would the family not add the description of the bikes on the missing posters?

I am way, way behind and this may already have been answered.

If I were in charge of the investigation, I wouldn't allow the release of a description of the bicycles either. If at all possible, I'd keep it secret.

There have already been two unconfirmed sightings of the bicycles at Meyer's Lake. At least one of those sightings almost has to be mistaken: the one by TG is impossible in light of the second videotape with the 12:11 time stamp. The store owner said that the timestamp was off by 8 minutes slow compared to his US Cellular cell phone. Even with a helicopter, it would be impossible to get those bikes into position in 2 minutes for TG to see them!

So keeping the description of the bicycles is absolutely vital to help them sort out whether sightings were of those particular bicycles (and girls) or not.

So if I were in charge of the investigation, I would ask, tell, order, beg and plead with the family not to distribute the description of the bicycles for fear of damaging the investigation and making it impossible to bring the girls home.

 

[otto]

Those words "arranged differently" is misleading and possibly triggered the confusion.

Different people say it differently and I know that is the way you put it. But that is not mentioned in any articles except that it was stated that the cyclist mentioned that he had to swerve in order to avoid them while going in the trail. Well, that should clear the confusion.

The swerving cyclists tip has the bikes arranged differently than the police report. That's a fact. The cyclist swerved to avoid a bike on the path. Apparently he saw two bikes, but only swerved to avoid one. Police have reported that the bikes were leaning against the fence. I believe they should have been pointing West because the trail isn't a complete loop and the girls would have entered the park at the North entrance.

 

[Confusion]

Ok, time for a new train of thought for me. Everybody seems to have a vague picture in their heads of what a person who would do this would be like, but there other types of perps. What if (again) there were a couple of teens who had a friend with a truck or van and used it to bring their own bikes to the lake, and that's what TG saw. They could have parked the vehicle, rode the bikes over a bit, dropped them, and hid while waiting there for the girls to get there. It could be someone who lives within a couple blocks of Elizabeth's house, and has been talking with the girls on their bike rides, and they may have told them they were going to be at the lake if they wanted to meet them there to ride for a while and maybe have a picnic or something.

Once the girls got there and got off their bikes, they could have gone around the fence trying to figure out where the boys were (since their bikes were laying there). The boys come out of hiding carrying some food. Once the started eating, they could tell them that they'd found something interesting in the woods just before the girls got there (baby rabbits or something) and offer to show them. Once they got over there, they could get them into the vehicle, go grab their bikes and take off. If there were 3 of them (2 with the bikes and 1 driving), it could also explain the 3 energy drink cans.


Next....:rollercoaster:

 

[GrainneDhu]

Casey's has recently bought many convenience stores in the area. The one nearest my house, on River Forest, was an All-Stop not long ago. The one in Elk Run, I believe was a &Go recently. All the All-Stops in town, along with other gas stations, were recently taken over by Casey's, and undergone changes. I'd bet they have some kind of surveillance, but I'm not sure, and each store might be different. I know the one in Elk Run was recently remodeled (son's pre-school is nearby).

My point is that they had a hiring blitz, and you could apply at ANY location with the understanding that you may not be working at that same location.

I would suspect the FBI is looking for a receipt for something they may have as evidence - perhaps the energy drink cans, or cigarettes, or something else they may have found by the lake - that they will then attempt to tie to video or something. Or perhaps they've found something in a house or car or one of these neighborhood surprise raids, and are trying to see when/where/if it was purchased near the lake.

I know from a student who managed a Casey's near me that stores that were originally built as Casey's have a camera pointed right at the cash register as well as covering all the other areas of the store and around the outside, including the gas pumps.

I don't know how much remodelling Casey's does when they buy up other stores but I think it's likely that they install cameras.

 

[GrainneDhu]

God forbid I am ever investigated for anything. I have all of those items in my home.

This poor family. A ten year old girl is being smeared and her family is being picked apart.

I had better take a break. I'm pretty angry.

I'm with you, Frayed.

The thank you button was just not enough.

 

[otto]

It sure does seem unlikely, but it explains everything. There are lots of hangers on around this story that we don't even know about yet, but LE do.

Even if TG is mistaken in his times (the 12.20 came originally from fb I believe, 12.27 is being bandyed about too, I suspect it's probably somewhere in the middle), it remains a fact that no one else saw those girls at the lake. No one, either earlier, or later.

No one saw an abduction, there have been no BOLOs for individuals or vehicles...nothing.

No one saw anything, and no one heard anything either, which LE have confirmed in this case, so whenever it was done it was done quickly and quietly.

:ufo:

Adding extra characters, as many as four, seems highly unlikely.

The times are either 12:07 and 12:20 or 12:15 and 12:27. It makes little difference.

This was done with as few people as possible and it's highly unlikely that this was sophisticated with two vehicles prepped to rendezvous after one subdued two little girls and the other ditched bikes and a purse between two fences by a lake beyond a forest in record time of 8 minutes.

Ditching the bikes there, even within 3 hours of an abduction, seems risky ... why not wait until dark? That kind of points to the girls being abducted on the spot. What do we know about the social media, email and cell phone trails?

 

[smiley]

I went back and watched Nancy Grace's 1st interview with MC, they had Grandma on the phone. At the end, NG asked MC what her message would be, She said to keep your eyes open, for anything strange, out of the ordinary, All while having a smirk on her face. Then she asked Grandma what her message was, she said Just bring my kids home. I want my grandchildren home" MC didn't ask for child home/safe. Seemed strange to me.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Daniel Morrissey on the stresses of having a missing daughter and niece -

"I'll tell you something about emotions. A lot of people base their decisions off emotions and it doesn't work out too well. They're angry, they make a bad decision, whatever," he said. "So emotions I try to keep control of and keep my head straight. During this time, it's definitely challenging, but I have to keep my mind right."

Why would that be?

Anyone would be forgiven for not having their "mind right" when their daughter is missing. :dunno:

What "decisions" does he have to make?

http://abcnews.go.com/US/cops-suspect-dad-missing-iowa-girls-case-family/story?id=16810959&page=2

 

[otto]

Why are two vehicles needed?

All that is needed is one person who they know and trust, and they will go willingly.

Add in two accomplices who offer to ride their bikes home for them, and off they go, quite happily, to the surprise party.

The accomplices ride the bikes to the park, dump them, leave on foot.

See? One car.

Are you thinking that they went willingly with a perpetrator in the park or they were abducted at another locataion? If they went willingly in the park, why would they leave their bikes behind and walk to the end of a double fenced area? Why would they abandon their bikes?

Regarding these two youthful cyclists ... presumably they are part of this preplanned two vehicle kidnapping? I pointed out that there simply isn't enough time for someone to kidnap the children elsewhere and ditch the bikes at the SE tip of Meyers Lake in 5 - 12 minutes. It was suggested that there could be two vehicles: one for the girls and one to speed the bikes to the lake.

Regardless of the specifics, four people abducting two girls or two people abducting two girls in one vehicle and ditching their bikes a mile away down a lane, through the forest, along the trail, between the two fences and tossing a purse over the fence in less than 12 minutes doesn't seem realistic.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Many CCTV systems used in stores overlay the (point of sale..cash register) information on the video. This way the camera that sees the register can spot if the clerk is ringing up a no-sale when his friend stops in for a case of beer, or forgetting to ring-up sales.... This is more common in a larger national chain vs a local mom-and-pop store that is likely to have something less fancy when it comes to CCTV.

Casey's is a chain in the midwest with 1699 stores.

 

[zoebella]

I still need to catch up completely, but someone mentioned upthread that they didn't think a normal 10 yr old would run away. I jut wanted to add that I know a few people who threatened to run away when they got mad at their parents. And none of these children were from drug-addicted homes, and this was before the internet (computers were starting to be around but not the internet). I babysat a little girl in the mid-eighties when I was 12 and that was her "go-to" response when she was angry at her parents for grounding her, or reprimanding her. Sometimes her mom would offer to pack her lunch...lol It was funny because we all knew she wouldn't do it. One of my older siblings also threatened to run away. This is back in the early 70's. She ran away - to our backyard into the playhouse my dad built for everyone. I was just an infant so I don't remember but the story goes as soon as it started to turn to dusk, she hightailed it back in the house as she was not a fan of the dark.

Anyway sorry for rambling, I just wanted to give my opinion that I do not believe a child has to be in a very negative and harmful environment to threaten to run away. Children often think in terms of black and white and are very controlled by their emotions. When they feel extreme emotions, sometimes they need to react with the same intensity that they are feeling. Threatening to run away is probably the worst thing they could think to do - knowing their parents would not want them to go. I hope this makes sense - it is late and I am getting ready to head to bed. I've been down listening to the scanner for a while and my brain is fried!

No offense meant to anyone - I respect everyone's opinions here. I just wanted to give my thoughts based on my own experiences.