ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Died in Apparent Homicide - Moscow #2

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  • #561
JMO, IMO, My Speculation:

- I think: Perp is a male in his early to late 20s
- I think: Perp is an experienced hunter (hence no survivors, familiar with anatomy and how to kill)
- I think: Perp is a local or from nearby region and is not a student
- I think: Perp presents well, is sociable & amenable
- I think: The target of his attack was Kaylee / Maddie: perp was interested in one of them, thought he might "get lucky," and took the rejection extra hard as the other girl personally witnessed it
- I think: This attack was not planned any more than an hour or two before it occurred, the perp likely had the knife handily available (car or nearby domicile) and was not familiar with the home or its residents except knowing one/two of the victims lived there
- I think: Ethan/Xana had the misfortune of coming home at a similar time and not being totally conked out by time of attack, they went to investigate
- I think: The two surviving roommates were both sound asleep and continued to be so until police arrived. Half the campus was probably still snoozing at noon on a Sunday. College students are prepared to sleep through parties right next door if need be.

I will delete this if I am not able to post my total speculations. None of this is facts, just to be clear. But I have a strong feeling on this one.
 
  • #562
Do we know if there were any sexual assaults before the murders? I don’t remember hearing that in the press conference
 
  • #563
I dunno but it is very disturbing, what little we know would seem to indicate a cold, organized killer, not a frenzied person. I haven’t seen any indication or photos of blood on or at front door, walkway, or back sliding door. It sounds
pre meditated to me at this point.
 
  • #564
Unbelievably he used a tree limb in that attack. So he wouldn't have knife wounds obviously, but a survivor said she heard him come in her room but couldn't see him in time to defend herself. Most bedrooms aren't
that large so basically an attacker is at the bedside in a small number of seconds.
 
  • #565
<snipped> From above DailyMail article:

On Wednesday, police revealed both D and B were in the modest Moscow home at the time of the attack but miraculously survived the carnage.

Speaking to DailyMail.com, Idaho State Police spokesman Aaron Snell said the two survivors are helping police with their investigation but would not give further details of how they survived or whether either Dylan or Bethany called 911 later on Sunday morning.

He also told DailyMail.com the pair are not suspects but said every possibility is being looked at by the investigative team which now includes detectives from the Idaho State Police and the FBI as well as the Moscow Police Department.
So, at this time, no one has been cleared ?

I was hoping for an arrest by now. :(
 
  • #566
Press conference

16th November

Chief - My name is Chief James Fry with the Moscow Police Department. Might be reading from my notes today cause I want the information you receive to be extremely accurate. We know you have questions, and so do we, that is why we're here. I'd like to thank everyone for attending this press conference. (Introduces everyone)

The Moscow Police Department would like to extend our condolences to all family members, friends, the University of Idaho and the Moscow community. This is a horrible crime that took the lives of Ethan Chapin, Xana Kernodle, Madison Mogen and Kaylee Goncalves.

This horrible crime has affected all of us, the families, the University of Idaho, our community, our country and our officers. Agencies that are involved in this task force include - The Latah County Sheriff's Office, The Idaho State Police and the Federal Bureau of Investigations. As we continue our investigation, we have learned that Ethan and Xana were at a party on campus and Madison and Kaylee were at a downtown bar. They arrived home sometime after 1:45. If anyone in our community, or across our nation has any information about these times or the victims whereabouts, please call our tip line at 208-883-7180. The facts of the case, that we know right now - We know that these homicides occurred in the early morning hours of Sunday, November 13th. Around noon, Moscow officers received a call of an unconscious person. Officers discovered the bodies of Ethan Chapin, Xana Kernodle, Madison Mogen and Kaylee Goncalves inside the residence on King Rd. The four were stabbed with a knife, but no weapon has been located at this time. There was no sign of forced entry into the residence. Investigators are continuing to collect evidence at the scene. Investigators are working to develop a timeline to relevant events. Autopsies are taking place today on all the victims so we can continue to gather evidence and solve the crime. Investigators are working to follow up on all leads and to identify a person of interest. Based on details at the scene, we believe this was an isolated, targeted attack on our victims. We do not have a suspect at this time and that individual is still out there. We cannot say that there is no threat to the community. And as we have stated, please stay vigilant, report any suspicious activity and be aware of your surroundings at all times.

What we do know.. or what we don't know, excuse me - The identity and location of the suspect; the location of the knife or any clothing that was worn by the suspect. Currently, we have 25 plus investigators working this case, as well as assistance from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Idaho State Police. We're reviewing video that has been collected, but we're asking citizens to contact us with any information you may have that will help in this investigation. Once again, we're asking anyone with a tip to call the tip line at 208-883-7180. At this time, I would like to introduce the University of Idaho President, Scott Green.

University President - Thank you Chief Fry. I'm Scott Green, President of the University of Idaho. To us, this crime and the loss of these young lives is just simply beyond comprehension. While our small community is certainly not immune to such things, it's not a situation our close knit campus is used to dealing with. First, my deepest condolences to the families and friends of Ethan, Kaylee, Xana and Madison. Their loss has been devastating and they were bright lights in our community and are deeply missed and remain in our thoughts and our prayers. We've been working with Moscow Police since we were notified on Sunday of the crime. We've helped when asked and continually push for information, whenever possible, knowing that we cannot interfere with the important work and good investigations that are occurring. We just want justice for these victims. Our focus at the University is to support our students and our employees. We are encouraging our students and employees to take care of themselves as we head into Thanksgiving break. I want to take a moment to commend our faculty and staff who have been on the front lines helping our students, whether that is providing counselling to those in need of support, accommodating those who want to travel home, or engaging those who find comfort in staying busy interacting with their peers and our instructors in class. Our employees stepped up when our students needed them. While we have relied heavily on the expertise of Moscow Police, we feel confident that remaining open with flexibility to leave, allows our students to decide what is best for them. The weeks ahead will continue to challenge us as this loss and the circumstances around this crime become known. We will support each other as we grieve and we'll move through this together as a Vandal family. Thank you.

ISP Director - Good afternoon. My name is Kedrick Wills. I serve as a director of the Idaho State Police and as we have this discussion today, I'd like to express my appreciation for your attendance here because it's important, vitally important, that we get the information that we have, out to the public. Crime knows no boundaries and these murders have shaken us to our very core. You heard the University President as well as the Chief of Police talk about this small community and it's a very close tight knit community. And our hearts break for the families that's lost their loved ones, the University of Idaho, the Moscow community, and even within our entire state. Be assured the Idaho State Police is firmly in support of the work that the Moscow Police Department is doing, and we are providing every resource that we can to make sure that this comes to a conclusion with the person or people that is responsible is brought to justice. It's so important that you understand that this takes a team effort. This is teamwork, with the University, with the Moscow City Police Department, the Latah County Sheriff's Dept., the Idaho State Police and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. It takes everybody to be able to do this, and it's a balancing act. It's a balancing act of getting the community the information that they need to have with making sure that we provide a case, that the Latah County Prosecutors office you can go forward with. Governor Little, Idaho's governor, has assured me that the full weight of all the resources, we have within our state, are available to Chief Fry and to his team. Our crime lab is also involved with processing evidence and our law enforcement throughout the region, state and federal agencies, continue to provide resources. From the Idaho State Police's perspective, we provided detectives, here, from this area, as well as detectives from out of the area, State Police Detectives, as well as patrol resources and communication assistance as well, to provide for Chief Fry and his team. Following this briefing our communications director from the Idaho State Police, Aaron Snell, if you'd raise your hand Aaron. He will be the contact for all press media enquiries from here on out. He'll be working closely with Chief Fry and his team and we have additional, like I said, additional patrol and investigation resources brought to bear here as well. We want to do everything we can to make sure that this is done correctly and that the people that are responsible for this are brought to justice.

Chief - So, at this time I'm going to open it up to some questions that I'm sure you have and we'll do the best we can to answer those for you.

Reporter - You mentioned that there's an indication that it's an isolated, targeted, incident and there is an individual somewhere. Can you give us a reason as to why there's that belief there is a suspect? And can you also give a little more information on the forced entry? There's no sign of forced entry, but did it seem like any of the entries were left unlocked by any means?

Chief - I'll answer the last part there just because it's at the front end of my mind. We're not 100% sure if the door was unlocked. There were no damage to anything and the door was still open when we got there.

In these cases we take the totality of the things that we see and they're very dynamic right? and they're very big and there's a lot of information and we try to take that information and some of what we can't share with you, correct? but we try to take that information, we try to make the best educated decision we can. We review that as a team, with our detectives, along with our prosecutors, along with the University and we try to make that best decision on that. So we, at that time, believed that there was no threat and our goal is to provide safety for this community. That's why we're bringing in the resources were bringing. We want a close to this and we want to do everything we can to let the people in our community know that we care. We want them to feel safe. We want them to be safe and we're going to do everything we can to do that.

Reporter - You asked for videos or anything from the community to help put together that timeline. We obtained a copy of a Twitch video and family members of the Goncalves family were able to identify Maddy and Kaylee in those videos, at a food truck, ordering food. Is the Police Department... are investigators aware of that video and has it helped put together that timeline?

Chief - We are aware of that video and it has helped. It gives us a time and space where we knew where two of our victims were, and that helps us a ton and we'll continue to follow up all leads that we can and continue to gather those.

Reporter - Any indication of a party at the home that night?

Chief - Not that we know of, not at the home. We know that Xana and Ethan were at a different party on campus, but that timeline will still help us if other people know about that.

Reporter - On September 12th, there was a Vandal alert that was sent out about a potential stabbing threat on Paradise Path. Does this have any connection with what we've seen so far?

Chief - Not that we know of it, but we're following up every lead, every piece of information we get, we are following up to ensure that nothing has gone unturned. We want to have the individual identified, who is the suspect of this eventually, so we are literally looking into every aspect of everything.

Reporter - And you guys have said repeatedly that 'there's no threat to the public, but we don't know who the suspect is, we don't know where he's at'. How is there no threat to the public at this point?

Chief - Well, that's kind of an unknown. Like I said, we took the information that we had at the time, but we do need to be aware, the individual is still out there right?. We need to be vigilant. We need to watch out for our neighbours. We're a community policing community. We've said that for years and it's a community that watches out for each other. We need to continue to do that until we can close this off and make an arrest.

Reporter - Why has there been such limited information over the past couple days? I mean, we're almost four days into this - Why's it been so limited?

Chief - That's a difficult... we have a lot of information coming in and, you know, we have tried to push out some information through press releases, but the reality is, I probably should have been standing here a day or so ago, but I'm here now. We're going to continue to be here. We're going to continue to give you the information we can. We care about this community. I care about this community. I've worked here for 27 years. I want this community to be the safest community around.

Reporter - The Mayor has called it a crime of passion. Is there any indication that that's true?

Chief - We're looking into every aspect of this. I'm not going to stipulate whether it's one thing or another. We're going to continue to investigate until we have the facts, because really it's the facts that will drive what the cause of this is. And as we gather evidence we'll get that.

Reporter - Have we looked at any boyfriends or any ex boyfriends, any spouses as a potential suspect?

Chief - I will tell you we are looking at everyone. Every tip we get, every lead we get, there's no-one that we're not going to talk to. There's no-one that we're not going to interview. There's no-one that we're not going to look into and we're going to do our due diligence. We're going to make sure that nothing goes unturned and that we do everything we can, with the assistance with all the resources we have, to get a final answer.

Reporter - So, there were other roommates who lived at that residence. Were the roommates home at the time of the attack?

Chief - There was other people home at that time, but we're not just focusing just on them, were focusing on everybody that may be coming and going from that residence.

Reporter - So, since they were home, was it a hostage situation?

Chief - No, it was not.

Reporter - They didn't call it into police, so were they injured?

Chief - They were not injured, but like I said, we're still following up with everybody that could have been in that area.

Reporter - And how can you say it's a targeted attack if you don't have a suspect?

Chief - Like I said, we take the totality of the situation, we try to make the best.... bit of information that we can with everything that comes in and then we make our decision off of that. So, at this time, I'm not going to expand upon that, but like I've said, we do have a suspect out somewhere and we are looking for that individual, to solve this.

Reporter - I just want to clarify something you said earlier. Over the past couple of days, the information that we've been getting is there is not a threat to the public and earlier I heard you say you can't be sure that there is no threat. I just want to clarify what your stance is on that at this time?

Chief - So, we still believe it's a targeted attack. But the reality is, is there's still a person out there who committed four horrible, horrible crimes. So, I think we got to go back to that there is a threat out there still, possibly. We don't know. We don't believe it's going to be to anybody else, but we all have to be aware of our surroundings and make sure that we're watching out for each other.

Reporter - I know you said when the call came in it was for an unconscious person and also that was a stabbing. It seems, just from an outside perspective looking in, like that would be not the first thing a person calling in would think.

Chief - You're right, but the report that we got was that it was an unconscious individual. It wasn't until our officers arrived on scene, went into do caregiving check on the individual who was unconscious, that we found the scene that we found.

Reporter - Just to follow up on what she asked. So the other two roommates were there at the time of the attack?

Chief - All the information that we have from our investigation is that, yes, they were.

Reporter - But they were unhurt?

Chief - That is correct.

Reporter - So, was there any explanation as to why it took so long then for someone to call 911? You have surviving witnesses to an incident at 3 or 4 in the morning and the 911 call didn't come until noon?

Chief - I don't think I ever said that they were witnesses. I said that they were there. So, you know, we don't know why that call came in at noon and not in the middle of the night, but would we have loved for that to have happened? yes. But that's not how it took place, so, that's why we're investigating everything, still, to try to pull all the pieces together.

Reporter - Were they one of the people.. were they the 911 caller?

Chief - At this point in time, I'm not going to divulge who our 911 caller is, just because I want to keep the integrity of the investigation at this point.

Reporter - Are you able to tell whether the same weapon was used on all four victims?

Chief - You know, that's why we're having the autopsies done. The autopsy will confirm that and hopefully collect some evidence for us, even from those, that's what you do. The autopsies is to try to be thorough and try to gather more. So, we'll leave that, that would probably be something that would come out later.

Reporter - Was there anything missing in the home or were the purses still there? Any robbery attempt, anything like that?

Chief - Nothing that we have identified.

Reporter - I was just wondering, were the two other individuals present at the home when police responded at noon?

Chief - Yes.

Reporter - If you don't mind elaborating a bit more on those two people. Was it two people? What have those people shared about the circumstances of that night, what they saw or didn't see?

Chief - Well, I'm not going to go into what they shared that night. Obviously, that's part of our investigation. That's part of the information that we're trying to build our complete story with. So, as far as that goes, we're not going to go any further into what they... what they know and what they don't know.

Reporter - How many were there?

Chief - We believe 2.

Reporter - Chief, have you looked into the social media accounts of all the different victims? And we understand that one may have had an account linked to her instagram account. Have you looked into those accounts? Have you seen any sort of threats made to any of the individuals?

Chief - So, we are looking at all resources. We've got the likes of the Federal Bureau of Investigation helping us. We got our detectives, our forensic detectives, looking into that. We're trying to pull this whole picture... we're looking at everything that we can look at, social media etc. So, to answer your question, yes, we are.

Reporter - Were the victims all found in one part of the house?

Chief - I'm not going to divulge that either, that's part of our investigation. And at this time, I'm gonna go ahead and close this off, but if you have any questions for the University, we'll open that up at this point in time.

Reporter - What is the University doing to make their students feel safe?

University Dean - Thank you for the question. A question of safety is on everyone's mind right now. We have increased campus safety patrols. Our Executive Director of Campus Safety and Security, Jake Nichols, is out in the hallway, actually here, so I'm sure he'd be able to answer some of those questions. We have a campus safety escort where students can call 24 hours a day, seven days a week to arrange for a security escort to be escorted across campus during the day or night, it doesn't matter, at any point in time. We also providing resources to students to help them navigate through this from an emotional standpoint. We've had drop-in counselling that has been utilised, both in our counselling centre, as well as the Student Union building and we're also supporting students, like President Green indicated, that if they want to leave and go home now, they absolutely can. We're going to support them in doing so. Many students have questions about their academics and what not, but this is a very dynamic fluid situation, and we want to make sure were supporting students, and their families, to get through this the way that they need to.

Reporter - Washington State University is about 8 miles that way. What would you suggest that WSU do to make their students feel safe if they're unsafe?

University Dean - Communication and encouraging students to reach out and use resources. That's a fantastic campus. I've talked to their Dean of Students office yesterday and they are mobilising their support resources. All campuses have supports in place. Students just need to make sure they are leaning in and reaching out to it and many times students don't, but we encourage that, absolutely.

Reporter - (Video freezes)

University President - ....class, they gain comfort from interacting and staying busy with their faculty and attending classes, labs. Some are working on their semester projects. So, we've heard from them. At the same time, we want to provide the ability for any student who did not feel comfortable staying around, who did not want... who was unable to process that, that they had that opportunity to go and we've been helping them as well. All these absences are excused. We've asked our faculty to work with those students who chose to go. And so we felt that this was the best way to respond, to give as much flexibility as we could to our students and our faculty to help manage the situation. And frankly, I think they've done a very, very good job.

Reporter - Is the University working with the parents or the families of the victims? Are you in touch with them?

University Dean - Absolutely. You know, one of the hardest jobs I have is talking to parents of students who have died. It's the absolute worst part of my job. And so I've reached out and made contact with all the families. We've offered our support and we're going to stay in constant contact with them. I've communicated with them, almost everyday. We usually give a little space in time before we reach out just for the sheer shock of absorbing the loss of a child and what that looks like, but we're going to stay in support of them moving forward for the weeks and months to come and in whatever capacity they need.

Reporter - We've talked to a few of them and they've expressed some frustration with the lack of communication from investigators and from the officials involved on that side of it. Has the university heard that from them? How are you working with them to help kind of close that communication gap?

University Dean - Sure. I do know that Captain Barrett from the Moscow Police Department is also in constant contact with them. He reaches out to them on a regular basis, from that standpoint. I think it's safe to say everyone, the families most of all, want information and they want justice and I can't do anything but honour what their needs are and what they are. Whenever I hear concern from the family members about what's going on, I'll definitely make sure I communicate that to the Moscow Police Department. They are very busy, the men and women of this department are working really hard on their behalf and on our communities behalf, but if I can be a conduit to share information, we're absolutely going to do that.

Reporter - Has there been any update on the candlelight vigil that is postponed till after the break?

University Dean - There was a candlelight vigil that was originally scheduled tonight, but because of the volume of students who have left, we want to make sure we're creating space where they can participate. We don't want someone driving back during this time to do that. So, we've rescheduled to November 30th. We haven't finalised the time. We will definitely be sharing that out to our students and our community and the larger community. We're just finalising some details, we're going to communicate that with the families as well. It will be on campus. We haven't figured out the location yet because we're going to be monitoring what the weather looks like. We anticipate a large amount of individuals. That being said, we also have two communities that are just providing beautiful support. There's a candlelight vigil in Boise, tonight, in honour of our law students and there's also a candlelight vigil tonight in (??). And I say nothing but thank you for the love and support from those communities that are supporting us, and we've seen that support come across the country and around the world for the University of Idaho and these families. And so, it's a beautiful thing.

Reporter - President Green, can you talk a little bit about the Vandal alert that involved the knife and how the University handled it and what you found in that case?

University President - Yes. So, basically we were just responding to the information that we had from the Moscow Police Department at that time. We had an incident response team, we gathered Sunday, as we were notified by the Moscow Police Department that there had been a crime committed. At the time, we weren't sure if they were students or not and we wanted to provide help to the Moscow Police Department and we think we were able to do that successfully to help them up, you know, identify those students and contact their relatives. So, beyond that it was just trying to understand what the assessment was of the risk to the campus and we relied on our subject matter experts, as you've heard, they know more than any of us about this and then, based on that, we started making decisions about how to move forward this week.

Reporter - And so, what were those decisions around that initial... or what was the conclusion you had at that point about the level of risk?

University President - Well of course, you know, on the first Vandal alert it was high risk. We had, really, no information and we asked our students to shelter in place until we got the all clear from... well, it wasn't an all clear but, you know, reduced risk, where students could start to move around more freely. We had people sheltering in places like the library and the Pitman Centre and places around campus. We didn't want to keep them there all night, if we didn't have to. So, as soon as Moscow Police Department determined that it was safe for them to begin moving around, but be vigilant, we sent the other vandal alerts.

Reporter - I apologise, I was referring to the earlier Vandal alert, involving the threatening with a knife that happened in September.

University Dean - So, that Vandal alert, we had a group of students walking back to Greek Row from a location off campus. They encountered an individual who is not affiliated with the University. They got into, from my understanding, a verbal altercation and he ended up flashing a knife at them. It was not a stabbing. It was not a stabbing attack. It was a threat, to the best that we know. We sent out a Vandal alert, warning the individuals of our campus community at that time. I don't have the specific date, but it's out there, from that aspect of it and it's my understanding that the individual then later turned himself in to law enforcement and they've addressed what then happens.

Reporter - (Asks if there's any connection to this homicide)

University Dean - That's a question for law Enforcement.

Reporter - Do you know who he is?

University Dean - I know about the incident. I don't know the individual because he's not affiliated with the University. So, my understanding, he turned himself into law enforcement. So, I can't answer the question of whether he's connected with this or not.

Chief - I want to thank you again for coming. That's going to be all the questions we take at this time and we appreciate you coming and spending time with us and we will continue to put out information, as we have time. And we want to reassure the community that the Moscow Police Department and everybody working on this will do everything we can. We love this community. A lot of us went to the University of Idaho and we are Vandal's and we will do everything we can to solve this. Thank you.

Thank You ♥
There's a tone in that, that makes me uneasy but that's moo.
But, the chief comes across as dedicated to his community, and committed to finding the truth - which is reassuring. I liked and found comfort in what he said.

This is horrific
Hope that Kaylee, Maddie, Xana and Ethan's family and friends are receiving any support they need. Such a senseless and horrific crime.
And I'm really bothered about Murphy and whether he is OK (I may have missed whether he's safe, as I've been speed reading a bit) - it's already awful, but the thought of the pupper as well, is just breaking my heart.

Moo
 
  • #567
  • #568
I am doing a bit of research on knife-related crimes. What I am finding is that they are not studied in great detail but a few things about homicide and weapon choice by gender are interesting. I will link and highlight some of what is interesting to me.


  • Of the offenders for whom gender was known, 88.0 percent were male. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 3.)
  • More than 73 percent (73.7) of the homicides for which the FBI received weapons data in 2019 involved the use of firearms. Handguns comprised 62.1 percent of the firearms used in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter incidents in 2019. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 8.)
  • Homicides by knives or cutting instruments were 1,476 of a total of 13,927 homicides counted in this table in 2019.

So what this tells me is the offenders are typically male in most homicides. But how does impact weapon choice? Who is most likely to use a knife I wanted to know. I found a handy interactive link that allowed me to take a look.
selection page: Crosstabulations of Known Murder Offenders

So, what I did is choose the following selectors when looking at homicide reports.

Selecting:
Year of incident2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Sex of offenderMale, Female
Weapon usedFirearm, Knife, Blunt object, Personal
Age of first victim18 to 24
Race of first victimWhite

Here is the data I found:

Showing by percentages here:

Sex of offender by Weapon used for United States​

Search:
Col %FirearmKnifeBlunt objectPersonalTotal
Female7.2%11.1%8.3%9.7%7.8%
Male92.8%88.9%91.7%90.3%92.2%
Total100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Suggested citation: Puzzanchera, C., Chamberlin, G., and Kang, W. (2021). "Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-2020." Online. Available: Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports
Data source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Supplementary Homicide Reports 1980-2020 [machine-readable data files].

Showing by number count here:

Sex of offender by Weapon used for United States​

Search:
CountFirearmKnifeBlunt objectPersonalTotal
Female324841214433
Male4,1966721301295,127
Total4,5207561421435,560
Suggested citation: Puzzanchera, C., Chamberlin, G., and Kang, W. (2021). "Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-2020." Online. Available: Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports
Data source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Supplementary Homicide Reports 1980-2020 [machine-readable data files].


Showing by weapon choice percentage:

Sex of offender by Weapon used for United States​

Search:
Row %FirearmKnifeBlunt objectPersonalTotal
Male81.8%13.1%2.5%2.5%100.0%
Female74.8%19.3%2.7%3.2%100.0%
Total81.3%13.6%2.5%2.6%100.0%
Suggested citation: Puzzanchera, C., Chamberlin, G., and Kang, W. (2021). "Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-2020." Online. Available: Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports
Data source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Supplementary Homicide Reports 1980-2020 [machine-readable data files].



--------------------
My interpretation of this is that men are most likely to commit homicide and when they do (under the scenario of having a white victim 18-24) they are the offender 92% of the time. But if I look at who is most likely to use a knife WHEN they commit homicide it is female at 19.3% although a female commits homicide at a much lower rate than a male.

Just interesting stats to me. MOO
 
  • #569
So, at this time, no one has been cleared ?

I was hoping for an arrest by now. :(
I don't think LE 'officially' clears anyone until a suspect is arrested.

MOO
 
  • #570
I am doing a bit of research on knife-related crimes. What I am finding is that they are not studied in great detail but a few things about homicide and weapon choice by gender are interesting. I will link and highlight some of what is interesting to me.


  • Of the offenders for whom gender was known, 88.0 percent were male. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 3.)
  • More than 73 percent (73.7) of the homicides for which the FBI received weapons data in 2019 involved the use of firearms. Handguns comprised 62.1 percent of the firearms used in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter incidents in 2019. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 8.)
  • Homicides by knives or cutting instruments were 1,476 of a total of 13,927 homicides counted in this table in 2019.

So what this tells me is the offenders are typically male in most homicides. But how does impact weapon choice? Who is most likely to use a knife I wanted to know. I found a handy interactive link that allowed me to take a look.
selection page: Crosstabulations of Known Murder Offenders

So, what I did is choose the following selectors when looking at homicide reports.

Selecting:
Year of incident2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Sex of offenderMale, Female
Weapon usedFirearm, Knife, Blunt object, Personal
Age of first victim18 to 24
Race of first victimWhite

Here is the data I found:

Showing by percentages here:

Sex of offender by Weapon used for United States​

Search:
Col %FirearmKnifeBlunt objectPersonalTotal
Female7.2%11.1%8.3%9.7%7.8%
Male92.8%88.9%91.7%90.3%92.2%
Total100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Suggested citation: Puzzanchera, C., Chamberlin, G., and Kang, W. (2021). "Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-2020." Online. Available: Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports
Data source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Supplementary Homicide Reports 1980-2020 [machine-readable data files].

Showing by number count here:

Sex of offender by Weapon used for United States​

Search:
CountFirearmKnifeBlunt objectPersonalTotal
Female324841214433
Male4,1966721301295,127
Total4,5207561421435,560
Suggested citation: Puzzanchera, C., Chamberlin, G., and Kang, W. (2021). "Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-2020." Online. Available: Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports
Data source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Supplementary Homicide Reports 1980-2020 [machine-readable data files].


Showing by weapon choice percentage:

Sex of offender by Weapon used for United States​

Search:
Row %FirearmKnifeBlunt objectPersonalTotal
Male81.8%13.1%2.5%2.5%100.0%
Female74.8%19.3%2.7%3.2%100.0%
Total81.3%13.6%2.5%2.6%100.0%
Suggested citation: Puzzanchera, C., Chamberlin, G., and Kang, W. (2021). "Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-2020." Online. Available: Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports
Data source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Supplementary Homicide Reports 1980-2020 [machine-readable data files].



--------------------
My interpretation of this is that men are most likely to commit homicide and when they do (under the scenario of having a white victim 18-24) they are the offender 92% of the time. But if I look at who is most likely to use a knife WHEN they commit homicide it is female at 19.3% although a female commits homicide at a much lower rate than a male.

Just interesting stats to me. MOO
I love statistics so thank you for sharing this!
 
  • #571
  • #572
I have been following this thread basically to keep up with the developments. I don't have a theory as to what happened yet since there is so much missing information. I believe we would know an awful lot more about this crime if we knew what the victims were wearing. Were they wearing the street clothes they wore earlier? Night-time clothing? and so forth. Street clothes would suggest they were still awake for example. Nightwear would suggest they were asleep.

It does bother me that, in the fox pictures posted earlier, the upstairs bedroom was clearly visible from the street. Any passer-by could conceivably see more that the occupant would expect.
 
  • #573
I don't think LE 'officially' clears anyone until a suspect is arrested.

MOO
Yeah, it's rare that they do that. They generally don't even name a suspect, let alone clear anyone publicly.
 
  • #574
Ugh, now their names are out there.
Unfortunately, the names had been making the rounds before. Poor women. This is awful in countless ways.
 
  • #575
They said both women are helping with the investigation and are not considered suspects.
For the record this was not said in the press conference. They didn’t give much on two that were there. Snell did clear them later though.
 
  • #576
Yes he was a guest but the 2 other roommates that were not killed did not have their gender revealed
The other 2 roommates are both females.
 
  • #577
Apologies if this was already posted but I did a search on this thread and didn't see it.

From your link - I don’t think this photo has been shared. I was wondering this when looking at pics. The balcony did wrap around the side of the house but does not appear to have steps.

Link: Revealed: two Idaho students who survived when roommates were murdered
 

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  • #578
Do we know if there were any sexual assaults before the murders? I don’t remember hearing that in the press conference
I don’t believe so, nor burglary, which still leaves motive up in the air. Possibilities in my mind are -

- anger/jealousy/resentment
- sexual
- vengeance

I don’t feel it was a random attack or an opportunistic one. This is shocking like what Ted Bundy did, but that’s not very common. Financial gain isn’t in the picture for me either.

That being said, even if something isn’t common, doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Very interested to see who the perp is when they catch him.
 
  • #579
In the new DM article, a neighbor says that the location of the murders was a party house with lots of people coming in and out. That is probably a nightmare for LE at this point.
 
  • #580
I have been following this thread basically to keep up with the developments. I don't have a theory as to what happened yet since there is so much missing information. I believe we would know an awful lot more about this crime if we knew what the victims were wearing. Were they wearing the street clothes they wore earlier? Night-time clothing? and so forth. Street clothes would suggest they were still awake for example. Nightwear would suggest they were asleep.

It does bother me that, in the fox pictures posted earlier, the upstairs bedroom was clearly visible from the street. Any passer-by could conceivably see more that the occupant would expect.

Not really the street, more from the backyard. Those images taken in the dark were from the back of the house.
 
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