This case becomes problematic if any of the evidence like the confession is thrown out. Even with confession, it may be hard to prove murder. Think of it from the perspective of a juror. I think possibly a juror with his demographic profile could say, "Yeah he probably did it, but is there a 1% chance he let her out her or more likely he got her in the car for nefarious purposes and there was an accident or he gave her a drug and she reacted bad, yeah, there's a one percent chance." Indeed, the scenario I pose- he wanted to kidnap a girl for his plaything, he gave her a drug and she reacted bad and she died "accidentally" - someone could think there's a 1% chance of that happening. He would be convicted of other things but not murder. Or a story that she got in the car, he had no nefarious intentions but she thought he did, she panicked, started thrashing around and a "fight" broke out where she hit her head. Some juror could think that could have happened. It's possible that even in that scenario he could be convicted of felony murder - which often has similar penalties to first degree - but you would have to prove a first order felony first. Felony murder may be easier to prove here than first degree.
We don't believe these stories because we know so much about him, but would a juror hearing this from the first time seeing such an intelligent, not bad looking married guy (maybe they will even play up the churchgoing angle) with a crying sympathy family/wife buy that angle? I think there's a chance. Indeed, whether he is able to mount such a defense may very well depend on how supportive his family/friends are at trial. If he does not have alot of supporters, that would be telling whereas if he did - painting a sympathetic picture of the law-abiding, church-going good husband - yeah, that could be compelling to a juror. Especially if they throw out the fetlife stuff or argue that stuff was not him, he could get off on less than murder charges.
