Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #113

[gitana1]

I always try to remember confirmation bias when I make a conclusion, although I have still made mistakes. I saw a story about a plane crash, Varig Flight 254, in which confirmation bias played a big role. Basically, the experienced captain got lost, but at the time up in the airplane he had no reason to believe that he was lost. So he followed clues to try to get him back on track which were the wrong clues(because in his mind he thought that he was generally going the right way).

I think that in the case of Abigail Williams and Liberty German confirmation bias is crucial to how the general public as well as the investigators look at the case. Among the general public I am sure there have probably been many sightings of the bridge guy. Some people may think he is young while others believe he is older. The sketch/video interpretation is based in part on that.

As of right now, I tend to think police are under the impression the killer has to be local and from the Delphi area because he knew about the Monon High Bridge trail and how to navigate it. Maybe there is more to it and the police know more than what they say, but I really do think they are basing the killer being local on the idea that the Monon High Bridge is something only locals or someone who has lived in Delphi would know about. And that is it.

Well, we always find out how much info LE has had all along that we never fathomed. They have state police, local sheriffs and FBI all investigating and I'm pretty sure it was the FBI that created a profile of the killer.

I believe the chances of four separate agencies (local police were also involved) and all the personnel in each of those agencies, all operating under confirmation bias that websleuthers are smart enough to recognize (while they aren't) is slim. Add that one of those agencies is the FBI and the chance IMO is zero.

 

[StarryStarryNight]

I always try to remember confirmation bias when I make a conclusion, although I have still made mistakes. I saw a story about a plane crash, Varig Flight 254, in which confirmation bias played a big role. Basically, the experienced captain got lost, but at the time up in the airplane he had no reason to believe that he was lost. So he followed clues to try to get him back on track which were the wrong clues(because in his mind he thought that he was generally going the right way).

I think that in the case of Abigail Williams and Liberty German confirmation bias is crucial to how the general public as well as the investigators look at the case. Among the general public I am sure there have probably been many sightings of the bridge guy. Some people may think he is young while others believe he is older. The sketch/video interpretation is based in part on that.

As of right now, I tend to think police are under the impression the killer has to be local and from the Delphi area because he knew about the Monon High Bridge trail and how to navigate it. Maybe there is more to it and the police know more than what they say, but I really do think they are basing the killer being local on the idea that the Monon High Bridge is something only locals or someone who has lived in Delphi would know about. And that is it.

LE had two years to think only a local would know about the bridge and trails but never mentioned it and in fact cast their net nationwide with billboards, posters and info. I’m sure the crime’s location was always considered in their thinking. Just my thoughts, but I think something new caused them to take their new direction. Now if only they can figure out what to do with that new information.

 

[Boxer]

I always try to remember confirmation bias when I make a conclusion, although I have still made mistakes. I saw a story about a plane crash, Varig Flight 254, in which confirmation bias played a big role. Basically, the experienced captain got lost, but at the time up in the airplane he had no reason to believe that he was lost. So he followed clues to try to get him back on track which were the wrong clues(because in his mind he thought that he was generally going the right way).

I think that in the case of Abigail Williams and Liberty German confirmation bias is crucial to how the general public as well as the investigators look at the case. Among the general public I am sure there have probably been many sightings of the bridge guy. Some people may think he is young while others believe he is older. The sketch/video interpretation is based in part on that.

As of right now, I tend to think police are under the impression the killer has to be local and from the Delphi area because he knew about the Monon High Bridge trail and how to navigate it. Maybe there is more to it and the police know more than what they say, but I really do think they are basing the killer being local on the idea that the Monon High Bridge is something only locals or someone who has lived in Delphi would know about. And that is it.

Agree. Likely to be local, but easily found put the place as an adult and did a little reconnaisance, then he had same basic knowledge as locals.
His accent certainly sounds local.
Police appear to be waiting for a clue or for BG to commit another crime.

 

[Cutiekitty]

LE had two years to think only a local would know about the bridge and trails but never mentioned it and in fact cast their net nationwide with billboards, posters and info. I’m sure the crime’s location was always considered in their thinking. Just my thoughts, but I think something new caused them to take their new direction. Now if only they can figure out what to do with that new information.

Bbm- I think it was either something new or something old that became new upon reassessing the evidence they’ve collected. Maybe something SM related.

They said they were on to something early on and I’d bet early on they were looking locally. You always start close them work outward. For example in a domestic situation you’d look at the spouse/partner first then branch out to family, associates, neighborhood, etc.... You would not look at strangers or a serial killer until the evidence led that way. I’m not saying this was a domestic situation just providing an example.

 

[NameUser]

Nobody and I repeat nobody even the most sadistic, sexual deviant predator is attacking 2 people at the same time without knowing who their victims/target are.

I can't remember the name but one killer grabbed 2 girls and killed one locked the other in his car by accident. He then convinced her to open the door and killed her. Both strangers to the killer.

Perhaps Dennis Rader - ill look it up later

Its a little irresponsible to say nobody ever. It is certainly rare but, it definitely has happened before.

 

[Cutiekitty]

Well, we always find out how much info LE has had all along that we never fathomed. They have state police, local sheriffs and FBI all investigating and I'm pretty sure it was the FBI that created a profile of the killer.

I believe the chances of four separate agencies (local police were also involved) and all the personnel in each of those agencies, all operating under confirmation bias that websleuthers are smart enough to recognize (while they aren't) is slim. Add that one of those agencies is the FBI and the chance IMO is zero.

Confirmation bias is basically tunnel vision. All of the agencies experiencing this in unison is highly unlikely. I can see some of the individual agencies or even just high ranking individuals within those agencies experiencing this. If the agency or individual is high enough I can see them developing confirmation bias/tunnel vision which might have a heavy influence on the investigation that alters the course. The only Example that comes to mind is the Olympic Park Bombing/Richard Jewell.

 

[sunshineray]

My understanding is CE walked across the bridge and then back across it, at some point. Not sure about times and what have you. CE was there about an hour, give or take. The main trail which leads to the bridge is on private property, far as I can tell. The lower Girard trail is on public lands, six acres (from public records I've seen).

Not sure where FSG walked to, my understanding is DG encountered him at or near to the fork in the trail, near to the bench and the drop off point.The fork where the main trail keeps going, and the Girard trail splits off and runs down to the creek side.



Yes.



Correct.



Yes, they walked from the north side of the creek to the south side, the bridge runs at an angle relative to the creek at that exact area where it runs, although it's confusing looking at it on maps with the bends in the creek. It's easy to get disoriented, it took me a little bit to get my sea legs with the orientations of their trip/walk, the Libby images, the Libby video, etc. I'm good with maps but it takes some looking at this case, where it happened, over and over and over, again.

Oh and BTW I made a big mistake in a post from last night, in the "Abby photo" uploaded to SC, from Libby's perspective the trail in the background goes straight and then curves to the right.

MOO is BG stayed back a bit to keep an eye on the trail closer to the drop off spot to see if the coast was clear, then started making his way towards the bridge to see how far long the girls were on the bridge. Then he sprung his trap, once they got close to the far (SE end) of the bridge.

JMO

-FD

Thank you so much, I appreciate your help. I guess FSG could have either heard the people under the bridge from on the bridge if he crossed it then recrossed back or from those posts on the north side entrance to the bridge, if he didn't actually go on the bridge.

That north side of the bridge is the side over the creek. The south side is more over land. I'm thinking an older man would probably not be into crossing that even older bridge, so the voices he heard most likely were near the water. Are there roadways on both sides under the bride?

I know GH was debunking someone who was using Libby's picture of Abby saying there was a car on the north side. I've never seen a video "down the hill" on the north side.

 

[sunshineray]

Bbm- I think it was either something new or something old that became new upon reassessing the evidence they’ve collected. Maybe something SM related.

They said they were on to something early on and I’d bet early on they were looking locally. You always start close them work outward. For example in a domestic situation you’d look at the spouse/partner first then branch out to family, associates, neighborhood, etc.... You would not look at strangers or a serial killer until the evidence led that way. I’m not saying this was a domestic situation just providing an example.

The ISP and FBI probably relied on the local LE early on to where in the community they should look. A cursory profile was done with what the crime scene provided and local LE tried to figure out who to rouse and question, besides of course questioning the obvious family and friends.

I think somebody respected within the Delphi community gave investigators an assurance of something that later turned out to be not the whole truth. They were taken at their word and it was forgotten. Maybe new eyes spotted something to clarify?

 

[Falling Down]

Thank you so much, I appreciate your help. I guess FSG could have either heard the people under the bridge from on the bridge if he crossed it then recrossed back or from those posts on the north side entrance to the bridge, if he didn't actually go on the bridge.

That north side of the bridge is the side over the creek. The south side is more over land. I'm thinking an older man would probably not be into crossing that even older bridge, so the voices he heard most likely were near the water. Are there roadways on both sides under the bride?

Good question. No. The gorge is pretty steep on the north side. The road on the south side is a driveway to a house, it becomes a county road as it curves around, and then straightens out where there's a residential area and some farm land.

I know GH was debunking someone who was using Libby's picture of Abby saying there was a car on the north side. I've never seen a video "down the hill" on the north side.

Car, people, etc. It's private property, no there was not a vehicle there, and nobody saw a vehicle on the trail that day. No people in the picture, either. Just the red metal barrier.

-JMO

-FD

 

[Cutiekitty]

The ISP and FBI probably relied on the local LE early on to where in the community they should look. A cursory profile was done with what the crime scene provided and local LE tried to figure out who to rouse and question, besides of course questioning the obvious family and friends.

I think somebody respected within the Delphi community gave investigators an assurance of something that later turned out to be not the whole truth. They were taken at their word and it was forgotten. Maybe new eyes spotted something to clarify?

Definitely could be. I don’t know what happened, but something did. I think LE knows who it is, but they can’t actually put them at the scene during the time frame necessary. Maybe someone lied about where they were at what time that day, maybe they got the search warrant returns and things came up on SM that weren’t made public, maybe someone flipped....who knows.

 

[gitana1]

Confirmation bias is basically tunnel vision. All of the agencies experiencing this in unison is highly unlikely. I can see some of the individual agencies or even just high ranking individuals within those agencies experiencing this. If the agency or individual is high enough I can see them developing confirmation bias/tunnel vision which might have a heavy influence on the investigation that alters the course. The only Example that comes to mind is the Olympic Park Bombing/Richard Jewell.

Yes. Agreed.

 

[Thelastleg]

Since the April PC I could never figure out how LE knew LG was videoing in selfie mode. Just figured it out tonight when looking at the SC pic and the BG still. It’s obvious. I feel kind of ridiculous right now.

Just wondering how you came to that conclusion. Not challenging you. I also thought it was in selfie mode but got shouted down that it wasn't.

 

[Thelastleg]

I don't know until today, if BG could enter the bridge only near the pols (like Abby/Libby) or could he have entered the railroad track also at another point without being a climbing expert?

I hadn't considered him getting onto the bridge other than at the start of it. Does anyone know how steep it is up to the bridge and is it possible to cli.mb. Obviously after it crosses the creek. That would surely raise alarm bells if someone was scrambling up from the woods.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

O/T

Why do I have to accept cookies 3 -three!- times, when I'm logging in? I'm wondering a few weeks now; today I want to ask finally. (Emoji with frightened eyes)

 

[Cutiekitty]

Just wondering how you came to that conclusion. Not challenging you. I also thought it was in selfie mode but got shouted down that it wasn't.

Bbm - I might’ve been one of the ones disagreeing with you and if I was I apologize.

This is what I saw that convinced me....the shadows of both LG and BG are extending from the same side of their body (they go to the right, but they are extending from their left side) so they are walking the same direction. The angle of the bridge in the background is all funky if you look at the pics side by side. In The SC pic it goes more NW to SE and in the BG still it goes NE to SW. This really gave me a headache for a day or two, but the weird angles are because of selfie mode.

Lay a stick at an angle on a flat surface and look at it like you were taking a pic. Then turn around with the camera in selfie mode and look at it. The angle of the stick will switch just like the 2 pictures.

You can do selfie mode with both the camera on the phone and with SC. I still haven’t decided which she used and I’ve read all of the arguments for and against each method. Even though it’s not a popular opinion SC makes the most sense to me at the moment.

 

[SeattleStew]

I'm reading up on Sarah Yarborough's case here on WS, here killer was finally caught after 28 years, when her killer's DNA was uploaded to a genealogy website last week. In this article, I pulled this quote, which immediately makes me think of the "couple arguing under the bridge" the day Abby and Libby went missing.

This from the DM regarding Sarah Yarborough's murder:

"A witness later came forward to say he had seen a blonde man kneeling over a woman's body while he was jogging through the school grounds.

However, he believed they were making out at the time and did not want to interrupt them."

Washington state man, 55, is charged cold case murder of schoolgirl | Daily Mail Online

Correct me if I am wrong, Websleuther's, but we have never had any identity on who may have been the couple arguing under the bridge, have we?

 

[Torch Carrier]

Seattle Stew, thanks for the interesting post. No, I don't believe we have ever heard who the "couple arguing under the bridge" was.

IDK why some here thought the suggestion it could have been BG and Girl(s) was absurd... It very well could have been, for all we know, right?

 

[FrostedGlass]

I hadn't considered him getting onto the bridge other than at the start of it. Does anyone know how steep it is up to the bridge and is it possible to cli.mb. Obviously after it crosses the creek. That would surely raise alarm bells if someone was scrambling up from the woods.

IMO it's doubtful that he came up from under the bridge. One of the Youtubers who has crossed the bridge a number of times actually climbed up the inside of one of the supports at the SE end. I'm not sure if he would have been able to boost himself up onto the bridge from where he was.

I thought it was possible that BG was following the railway bed from the south, heading toward the north end. I considered the possibility that the girls were under the bridge, he saw them and then turned around and came back when they came up onto the bridge. But then it was said they mentioned the guy who had been following them, so that scenario is unlikely.

 

[BNA]

IMO it's doubtful that he came up from under the bridge. One of the Youtubers who has crossed the bridge a number of times actually climbed up the inside of one of the supports at the SE end. I'm not sure if he would have been able to boost himself up onto the bridge from where he was.

I thought it was possible that BG was following the railway bed from the south, heading toward the north end. I considered the possibility that the girls were under the bridge, he saw them and then turned around and came back when they came up onto the bridge. But then it was said they mentioned the guy who had been following them, so that scenario is unlikely.

It seems to me that it has to be considered possible that he initially came from somewhere south of the bridge, and that he headed back that way as well. The google map shows where the rails continued onward. This would be easy to negotiate on foot during that time of year. And, before too long, that way leads into possible routes that are way easier to negotiate, including a roadway.

In fact, it seems possible that the missing period of time for the girls included them venturing back a bit that ways. Even tho the recording apparently indicated one saying to the other that the trail ends here, it seems to me that youthful curiosity could possibly have taken them back that way. And, maybe there was something back there that they were not supposed to see.

 

[ScumbagTrav]

Police appear to be waiting for a clue or for BG to commit another crime.

Obviously. Especially since Carter has openly stated "We are one tip away from success."