Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #123

[JnRyan]

You know, this information (likely, looks younger than biological age) could be potentially found out in the DNA, too. There are several genes associated with longevity, one of them coding for the activity of telomerase, the enzyme preventing shrinking of chromosomal telomeres. Bearers of another one, related to levels insulin-derived growth factor, are shorter than control group but live longer, into their 90es and even 100es.

Is it still possible that LE has DNA, and that it looks "youthful"? (Another option is that LE has very high index of suspicion about a certain POI).

Good to know. LE definitely wasn't this far along 20-25 years ago. I still wonder about the DNA. For 2 years after the murders, the lead ISP investigator, 1st Sgt Holeman, was very coy when asked if they have DNA. (He usually made general statements like 'It is rare to NOT find DNA' or 'Touch DNA is a very powerful LE tool' without addressing this specific crime. At the 2018 CrimeCon he stated he would neither confirm nor deny the presence of DNA evidence.) I believe someone in LE has now said they have DNA, but I've never heard them say they have the killer's DNA. One of the girls was wearing a hoodie that Liberty's sister kept in her car. No telling how much or who had touch DNA on it or if it was even transferred touch DNA. I'm beginning to wonder now how many DNA profiles LE has rather than whether they have DNA. And just because a particular DNA profile is found on one girl but not the other may not be an eliminating factor. If he didn't touch one girl (e.g., he shot her with a gun) but touched the other girl (e.g., knife, strangulation) that would leave all possibilities on the table. (LE has never revealed how the girls died or the weapon used.) I wonder if it isn't possible that a dozen profiles have been isolated? And then there is the possibility of partial DNA profiles. I'm afraid this killer is going to do it again before LE can narrow down the suspects.

 

[sunshineray]

There is only one thing somewhat specific about the sketch in your avatar. Right eye - somewhat "down and out". If I were to guess, I’d say, more likely, III nerve palsy, or Horner’s syndrome. I doubt that the witnesses were neurologists, so it is possible that another cranial nerve is involved (IV or VI), but no one would make a sketch looking like this unless they wanted to convey the message “pay attention to the right eye”.

It could be inborn (happens), even genetic, could indicate a serious problem or a trauma, or could be very mild, but it is there.

Given this “eye” and BG’s gait...are they a matching set, so to say? Or do they belong to different people? Could they indicate some prior trauma? Somewhere in his life, the guy should have seen a neurologist. JMO.

I found this article, author is well qualified and it's very disheartening as far as how much real help either of these Delphi sketches offer LE. I know it's just one man's opinion but in his case it's probably what he's taught others as well. It's a good read and makes me think we should really give more weigh to the photographic evidence and not the sketches. Humans like to see things clearly though and the video is not clear, compared with the sketches.

Police Suspect Sketches – How Accurate and Useful are they? – Physical Security Online

 

[sunshineray]

I don't believe there is a strong possibility that someone somewhere at this point in time 'knows' who did this. However, I do think there is someone who 'suspects'. The last I saw there were 50K in tips. So with that volume I think I'm safe in saying there are MANY who suspect someone.

With this possibly being about suspicion rather than solid knowledge there has to be some degree of doubt and now we have how comfortable our potential tipster is with calling this in. In play is the relationship with the suspect. If he is the odd guy in the apartment complex that doubt would seem to less of factor than if he were the tipsters best friend or cousin who was on hand during tough times.

Where am I going with this? LE needs that one tip to break this unless the killer commits another crime and their DNA is a match. LE is up against that doubt in someone's mind. While we and LE can sit in our comfortable homes and safely say, "You have to do the right thing", it is ultimately the tipster that has to confront his or her doubts and not us. LE has really contributed to the doubt factor. By releasing a 2nd sketch two years later LE has raised the doubt factor. For someone to know the suspected killer was not around the day before Valentine's Day over 3 years ago narrows it down to someone close to the killer. IOW, we may not have any recollection of where that odd guy in the next apartment was, but we might if it was a close friend or relative. Add to that another approach by LE and that is ISP Superintendent Carter's statement on the sketches. Like a 'sketch is not a photograph' and 'he may look like something in between the two sketches' and 'his face may have features from each sketch.' Wow! When we are trying to overcome that doubt factor those statements don't appear to help our potential tipster's confidence and may actually erode their confidence.

I'm starting to believe this case is going to solved through technology and not a tip. I think of the Tara Grinstead case where the killer apparently suffered a lot of remorse and eventually confided in a girl friend. But I don't believe that is going to happen here. I just hope that technology breakthrough doesn't come at the price of another victims life.

I'm starting to think like you, advances in technology to clean up Libby's video may be the thing that gives someone(s) enough of a clear picture to identify BG enough to matter.

It's obvious that anyone very close to him, who may have recognized him from video or stop action shots, are not coming forward. One other possibility is someone like that has come forward but have been lost in the massive shuffle of tips.

 

[Trebor5591]

After seeing the photo of BG, made from a frame of the video Libby took of him as he approached them, I believe I know what headwear he wore. On the FBI website, the headwear is identified as a hoodie, but I believe this is incorrect.

I think the headwear is a "ranger's hat with neckshade" . I see them in farm stores, and farmers use them to protect their necks from sunburn. See attached photos.

 

[Charlot123]

I found this article, author is well qualified and it's very disheartening as far as how much real help either of these Delphi sketches offer LE. I know it's just one man's opinion but in his case it's probably what he's taught others as well. It's a good read and makes me think we should really give more weigh to the photographic evidence and not the sketches. Humans like to see things clearly though and the video is not clear, compared with the sketches.

Police Suspect Sketches – How Accurate and Useful are they? – Physical Security Online

It is a good article. The illustration to it made me ask myself - did the witness and the perpetrator, or even the witness and the artist belong to different ethnic groups?

It is an interesting phenomenon. Where I live now I might, in some cases, be a horrible witness because I was not exposed to my current community as a child. This is when the brain, including the area responsible for recognizing images, the fusiform gurus, develops. I was thinking about it recently - that I have to put a name to the trait to describe it (aquiline nose, etc). I don’t like to watch TV, this could add to the problem, but maybe not, as TV favors only certain looks.

They say that generation Z is mostly visual. Hopefully, they will be better witnesses if computers store enough images - I think computer-generated databases need to be expanded, as there is such a wide range of looks in this world. Or maybe it will soon become obsolete.

 

[Ozoner]

After seeing the photo of BG, made from a frame of the video Libby took of him as he approached them, I believe I know what headwear he wore. On the FBI website, the headwear is identified as a hoodie, but I believe this is incorrect.

I think the headwear is a "ranger's hat with neckshade" . I see them in farm stores, and farmers use them to protect their necks from sunburn. See attached photos.

View attachment 251892 View attachment 251893

Whatever hat BG is wearing doesn't appear to cover as much of his head as the one in the photo would. I don't see any sort of brim. He could easily be wearing a brown baseball cap/trucker hat turned backwards for all I can tell. What you see behind his neck could be the bunched up hood of a hoodie. (I don't think LE ever stated that the hood of the hoodie was thought to be on BG's head.)

 

[Charlot123]

This is an interesting article about our brain and facial perception. Also, it seems that different areas of the brain are responsible for perception of the face and the body.

Identifying the Brain's Own Facial Recognition System

If so, there might be a strange dichotomy. Whoever lives close to the person, sees him at close range, too. Fusiform gyrus is active, but the face on the video is poorly recognizable. No use. At the same time, the relative might not be observing the person from afar often enough to be sure that the BG on the video is the same person. Could be. The coworkers might be more helpful for the video.

 

[Laughing]

After seeing the photo of BG, made from a frame of the video Libby took of him as he approached them, I believe I know what headwear he wore. On the FBI website, the headwear is identified as a hoodie, but I believe this is incorrect.

I think the headwear is a "ranger's hat with neckshade" . I see them in farm stores, and farmers use them to protect their necks from sunburn. See attached photos.

View attachment 251892 View attachment 251893

when you Google "ball cap with neck shade" there are plenty of options including:

Wholesale Adams EOM101 | Buy Extreme Outdoor Cap - VeeTrends.com

You may very well be onto something, here!

YMMV JMHO LRR

 

[somequestions]

I found this article, author is well qualified and it's very disheartening as far as how much real help either of these Delphi sketches offer LE. I know it's just one man's opinion but in his case it's probably what he's taught others as well. It's a good read and makes me think we should really give more weigh to the photographic evidence and not the sketches. Humans like to see things clearly though and the video is not clear, compared with the sketches.

Police Suspect Sketches – How Accurate and Useful are they? – Physical Security Online

That was a great article about police sketches. People really do look at them too literally. Otherwise they would not post side by side comparisons.

I thought the saddest part of the article was the part where it said law enforcement often only releases sketches when they have few leads. I think the quote by the investigator in the article sums it up well:

"When your case is going nowhere you put the sketch out there and hope for the best or you just give up and put the case on the cold case shelf."

It seems like that is the direction of the investigation into the murders of Abigail Williams and Liberty German with one exception. The video/audio Liberty German got with her phone will always be the one aspect of the case that makes me think that no matter how much time passes this case can be solved.

 

[Wells]

I have posted something similar to this before. It's an image of a man using the average height and weight from the FBI poster. 5 foot 7. 190 lbs. I think it's important to remember BG's body shape could be similar to this. Source is ModelMyDiet. You can play around with the features (i.e. making his stomach fuller instead of flat, making him older, making his eyes round instead of almond, etc.)

 

[Yemelyan]

You know, this information (likely, looks younger than biological age) could be potentially found out in the DNA, too. There are several genes associated with longevity, one of them coding for the activity of telomerase, the enzyme preventing shrinking of chromosomal telomeres. Bearers of another one, related to levels insulin-derived growth factor, are shorter than control group but live longer, into their 90es and even 100es.

Is it still possible that LE has DNA, and that it looks "youthful"? (Another option is that LE has very high index of suspicion about a certain POI).

I don't think investigators in the Delphi case have any info about offender DNA being "youthful" vs. "aged." I also looked into this at one time but the technology is not as far along as I thought.

I do not believe that any current model of forensic DNA testing incorporates an age prediction assay. These tests do exist and could work well in theory (possibly in the future this prediction could become standard) but as of right now, it's fraught with a lot of problems for forensic applications. I know the most about age prediction using DNA methylation so I'll just list the current issues with the technology:

1. Forensic samples are often of low quantity and quality and so may not contain the specific markers that yield accurate age-related changes.
2. Age-related changes to DNA are expressed differently in different body tissues. There is no standard across blood, semen, skin tissue, etc that can be applied.
3. The age predictive capacity is much weaker in "unhealthy" individuals. In one study, scientists thought they had developed an age predictive test but it turned out that their method wasn't measuring age related DNA changes at all - they discovered it was measuring DNA methylation related to a person's risk of developing leukemia.

I hope they do have DNA from BG and I hope it is informing the direction of the investigation but I wouldn't build any theory of the case around the idea that the DNA (if available) gave them accurate age info.

 

[Charlot123]

I have posted something similar to this before. It's an image of a man using the average height and weight from the FBI poster. 5 foot 7. 190 lbs. I think it's important to remember BG's body shape could be similar to this. Source is ModelMyDiet. You can play around with the features (i.e. making his stomach fuller instead of flat, making him older, making his eyes round instead of almond, etc.)

Thank you, interesting. It seems to me that his neck is shorter (I assume there were things under his jacket, but still he looks like a man with shorter neck).

 

[Charlot123]

I don't think investigators in the Delphi case have any info about offender DNA being "youthful" vs. "aged." I also looked into this at one time but the technology is not as far along as I thought.

I do not believe that any current model of forensic DNA testing incorporates an age prediction assay. These tests do exist and could work well in theory (possibly in the future this prediction could become standard) but as of right now, it's fraught with a lot of problems for forensic applications. I know the most about age prediction using DNA methylation so I'll just list the current issues with the technology:

1. Forensic samples are often of low quantity and quality and so may not contain the specific markers that yield accurate age-related changes.
2. Age-related changes to DNA are expressed differently in different body tissues. There is no standard across blood, semen, skin tissue, etc that can be applied.
3. The age predictive capacity is much weaker in "unhealthy" individuals. In one study, scientists thought they had developed an age predictive test but it turned out that their method wasn't measuring age related DNA changes at all - they discovered it was measuring DNA methylation related to a person's risk of developing leukemia.

I hope they do have DNA from BG and I hope it is informing the direction of the investigation but I wouldn't build any theory of the case around the idea that the DNA (if available) gave them accurate age info.

No, I don’t think they can accurately predict the age based on DNA sample. I was thinking more about the genes coding for telomerase activity, for example. If they run into the variance that usually correlates with high activity, they might expect the person to look younger. There is a human longevity project, and they constantly add new genes. (Does it necessarily correlate with the ability to predict longevity? Not too much, so far, but it could in the future).

As I was typing it, it suddenly hit me. Maybe the easiest explanation is, LE know that their POI had plastic surgery? Tightened sagging jowls, injected fillers, uses Botox, etc. Hence, “looking younger that expected age”.

I think this is exactly what happened.

 

[Wells]

No, I don’t think they can accurately predict the age based on DNA sample. I was thinking more about the genes coding for telomerase activity, for example. If they run into the variance that usually correlates with high activity, they might expect the person to look younger. There is a human longevity project, and they constantly add new genes. (Does it necessarily correlate with the ability to predict longevity? Not too much, so far, but it could in the future).

As I was typing it, it suddenly hit me. Maybe the easiest explanation is, LE know that their POI had plastic surgery? Tightened sagging jowls, injected fillers, uses Botox, etc. Hence, “looking younger that expected age”.

I think this is exactly what happened.

Knowing, or strongly suspecting, they had plastic surgery would make sense in light of that comment. Interesting.

 

[sunshineray]

No, I don’t think they can accurately predict the age based on DNA sample. I was thinking more about the genes coding for telomerase activity, for example. If they run into the variance that usually correlates with high activity, they might expect the person to look younger. There is a human longevity project, and they constantly add new genes. (Does it necessarily correlate with the ability to predict longevity? Not too much, so far, but it could in the future).

As I was typing it, it suddenly hit me. Maybe the easiest explanation is, LE know that their POI had plastic surgery? Tightened sagging jowls, injected fillers, uses Botox, etc. Hence, “looking younger that expected age”.

I think this is exactly what happened.

Wouldn't you think then that LE knows who BG is, there is no doubt.

 

[Yemelyan]

No, I don’t think they can accurately predict the age based on DNA sample. I was thinking more about the genes coding for telomerase activity, for example. If they run into the variance that usually correlates with high activity, they might expect the person to look younger. There is a human longevity project, and they constantly add new genes. (Does it necessarily correlate with the ability to predict longevity? Not too much, so far, but it could in the future).

As I was typing it, it suddenly hit me. Maybe the easiest explanation is, LE know that their POI had plastic surgery? Tightened sagging jowls, injected fillers, uses Botox, etc. Hence, “looking younger that expected age”.

I think this is exactly what happened.

What kind of evidence for plastic surgery could exist, that LE could know about and yet NOT know other identifying information, such as a suspect name?

 

[rosesfromangels]

After seeing the photo of BG, made from a frame of the video Libby took of him as he approached them, I believe I know what headwear he wore. On the FBI website, the headwear is identified as a hoodie, but I believe this is incorrect.

I think the headwear is a "ranger's hat with neckshade" . I see them in farm stores, and farmers use them to protect their necks from sunburn. See attached photos.

View attachment 251892 View attachment 251893

I don’t see head gear. I see sandy colored hair. Dang, we really need to get this image sharpened up.

some of you have been pondering plastic surgery to alter his appearance. I don’t see that as a big possibility as a change in facial hair and even hair dye and fake glasses could dramatically change his appearance.

amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Ozoner]

What kind of evidence for plastic surgery could exist, that LE could know about and yet NOT know other identifying information, such as a suspect name?

None. They don't think BG had plastic surgery.
-
The most likely explanation for that comment is that the FBI profile said that BG should be in his late twenties to late thirties, but the eyewitness described someone who looked younger than that.
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LE is trying to leave the door open for the FBI profile and eyewitness description to both be valid.
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The eyewitness most likely described someone who looked very young—so young that LE thinks that the eyewitness got the age wrong. However, the eyewitness account must be too credible to ignore. For instance, the witness may have described BG as looking 16—18 at the time of the crime, hence the low end of the age estimate of 18—40 two years after the crime. LE finds it hard to swallow that BG could really have been only 16, so they're choosing to grasp at the convenient explanation that BG must look younger than his actual age.
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I think we've all know a few 30-year-olds who looked 16, so LE's theory is plausible. However, I consider it entirely possible that BG actually was a teenager and that the profile is wrong. Profiles rely on means and standard deviations, but there are such things as outliers.
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Maybe the profile even allowed for BG's being a teenager, but LE in Indiana doesn't want to believe it or can't reconcile that possibility with what they see and hear on the video and audio.

 

[rosesfromangels]

...The eyewitness most likely described someone who looked very young—so young that LE thinks that the eyewitness got the age wrong. However, the eyewitness account must be too credible to ignore. For instance, the witness may have described BG as looking 16—18 at the time of the crime, hence the low end of the age estimate of 18—40 two years after the crime. LE finds it hard to swallow that BG could really have been only 16, so they're choosing to grasp at the convenient explanation that BG must look younger than his actual age....

Respectfully snipped for commentary response.

You are raising a very interesting point. Given that the girls were 12 and 13, it isn't completely out of the question that someone in that age group or slightly older (2-3 yrs), committed this heinous crime. Albeit, the voice does sound much older, but that small snippet could be deceiving.

It does seem unbelievable that someone that young could control two teens and murder them. However, in pondering this (remote) possibility, I think of a capable teen who grew up working on a farm where physical labor and containing and controlling animals was an every day occurrence. One would certainly posses skills to control and contain.

This possibility certainly seems on the fringe of any rational speculation, but given the time that has gone by, I'm attempting to think out of the box a bit.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Yemelyan]

None. They don't think BG had plastic surgery.
-
The most likely explanation for that comment is that the FBI profile said that BG should be in his late twenties to late thirties, but the eyewitness described someone who looked younger than that.
-
LE is trying to leave the door open for the FBI profile and eyewitness description to both be valid.
-
The eyewitness most likely described someone who looked very young—so young that LE thinks that the eyewitness got the age wrong. However, the eyewitness account must be too credible to ignore. For instance, the witness may have described BG as looking 16—18 at the time of the crime, hence the low end of the age estimate of 18—40 two years after the crime. LE finds it hard to swallow that BG could really have been only 16, so they're choosing to grasp at the convenient explanation that BG must look younger than his actual age.
-
I think we've all know a few 30-year-olds who looked 16, so LE's theory is plausible. However, I consider it entirely possible that BG actually was a teenager and that the profile is wrong. Profiles rely on means and standard deviations, but there are such things as outliers.
-
Maybe the profile even allowed for BG's being a teenager, but LE in Indiana doesn't want to believe it or can't reconcile that possibility with what they see and hear on the video and audio.

I agree with you @Ozoner, we don't need to look to plastic surgery to explain his young appearance.

In a study I recently read about child abduction murders the average age of offenders was around 27 years old but if I recall correctly there was a not insignificant number of pretty young offenders (16-18 years old... I want to say it was 17% of their sample of 733 cases, so it's definitely on the table for this case too). I have found myself seeing the video and thinking it's a perpetrator at least in his 30s based on what my eyes tell me but statistics say he's likely younger than that.