Israel Keyes: General Discussion

[dub]

Doing some research on the above, and it appears the number of possible incidents Keyes could have been involved in is very small.

Based on Keyes’ own words, a drowning as a result of a boating accident seems like the most likely scenario. There appear to have been only seven such events in Oregon within the date range, and I’m pretty sure I can rule out four of the seven (all of the ones that were in July and August). So we’d probably be looking for one in either September or October. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to find specific info on any such cases in these months.

If it’s a drowning that can’t be attributed to a boat accident, there are something like 16 additional cases that could be in play. Unlike the boating incidents, I don’t have these categorized by month though so the actual number is less than that.

These are harder to find info on than boating accidents, and thus far I’ve only been able to rule out one (I actually suspect that one is a boating accident too but haven’t been able to verify - but in either case it was outside the date range).

I also have some suspicions about Priest Lake in Idaho, as we know Keyes was familiar with it and it has some similarities to Lake Crescent, but I’ve come up with absolutely nothing there, or in Idaho period.

Eta sources for statistics:
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BIRTH...ANNUALREPORTS/VOLUME2/Documents/2001/6-28.pdf

https://www.oregon.gov/osmb/SiteCollectionDocuments/AccidentFatalityStats/2001AccidentStats.pdf

 

[ForensicPatterns]

Doing some research on the above, and it appears the number of possible incidents Keyes could have been involved in is very small.

Based on Keyes’ own words, a drowning as a result of a boating accident seems like the most likely scenario. There appear to have been only seven such events in Oregon within the date range, and I’m pretty sure I can rule out four of the seven (all of the ones that were in July and August). So we’d probably be looking for one in either September or October. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to find specific info on any such cases in these months.

If it’s a drowning that can’t be attributed to a boat accident, there are something like 16 additional cases that could be in play. Unlike the boating incidents, I don’t have these categorized by month though so the actual number is less than that.

These are harder to find info on than boating accidents, and thus far I’ve only been able to rule out one (I actually suspect that one is a boating accident too but haven’t been able to verify - but in either case it was outside the date range).

I also have some suspicions about Priest Lake in Idaho, as we know Keyes was familiar with it and it has some similarities to Lake Crescent, but I’ve come up with absolutely nothing there, or in Idaho period.

Eta sources for statistics:
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BIRTH...ANNUALREPORTS/VOLUME2/Documents/2001/6-28.pdf

https://www.oregon.gov/osmb/SiteCollectionDocuments/AccidentFatalityStats/2001AccidentStats.pdf

He definitely has a predictable MO of choosing areas near bodies of water that are deeply isolated to some degree. I'd look into states over that 10yr period of large body lakes of water in seclude wildlife parks, state parks, or near ones that get blocked by high mountain ranges that can't be seen from the other side of it (ie - hiking trails on the opposite side). There are probably almost similar looking landscapes in each place that match the look of what he grew up around in childhood and his teen years. So, knowing what it looked like in the area he lived in before moving to Idaho is probably a small clue to finding out where else he has been that hasn't been connected to him yet.

 

[ForensicPatterns]

Anyone have thoughts on the Keyes maps and mapping 'system'? Like the numbers and how he appears to plan an area? With all the new revelations I've always been very interested in the geography and Keyes' tactics re: maps and planning for disposal / caching.

It seems idiosyncratic to me, not a derived system. As in, the numbers and layout meant something only to Keyes. We don't have photos but it sounds like... minesweeper? A grid with numbers. Either single numbers, or a certain value range would presumably tell him where his goodies were. Was this in an attempt to obfuscate if anyone else saw? as opposed to writing "cache here, body here, etc".

It doesn't sound quite like a true map grid either, since the numbers are somewhat random. So for navigation it would be more difficult than a traditional grid map (which Keyes would be familiar with, due to his military service).

I'm also curious about the trends and methods SITP podcast has been highlighting, power lines and their ROW, trash piles, either innocuous or nigh impossible locations (lake bottoms, rivers, but also ditches with trash and metal plates and possibly vault toilets).

I think of it like how the military does map reading training, same methods I learned in AJROTC back in grade school.

Oh trick is to go by the military alphabet first in terms of seeing if he is doing a grid map that matches that or since he looked up to Ted Bundy, weirdly admired him, take note of the erratic map of Bundy's murders to get an idea & then laying it over the map of every recorded known confirmed Keyes murder to see if a pattern is forming similar to Bundy's spaced out murders. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit up Utah, Colorado, and more places Bundy also committed murders.

 

[dub]

He definitely has a predictable MO of choosing areas near bodies of water that are deeply isolated to some degree. I'd look into states over that 10yr period of large body lakes of water in seclude wildlife parks, state parks, or near ones that get blocked by high mountain ranges that can't be seen from the other side of it (ie - hiking trails on the opposite side). There are probably almost similar looking landscapes in each place that match the look of what he grew up around in childhood and his teen years. So, knowing what it looked like in the area he lived in before moving to Idaho is probably a small clue to finding out where else he has been that hasn't been connected to him yet.

Keyes never lived in Idaho, I’m guessing you mean when he moved to Maupin OR when he was ~17/18?

But yeah I think the topography is important especially when looking at his earlier crimes (pre-Alaska). The problem is, most of those crimes probably took place in the PNW, and most of the PNW can be accurately described like that haha

The weird thing is, even though that pattern is widely accepted (and I do think is true to an extent), none of his known murders actually match that. Of the highest-percentage “maybes”, some of them do but some don’t - it’s maybe 50/50 depending on who is included on that list. Almost none of the NAMUS 45 look like that.

I do believe that was an MO of his at least early on, but I have no idea what to make of this discrepancy.


And re: your second post, I still don’t know how I feel about Keyes actually committing crimes based on Ted Bundy’s patterns, but I agree with you that there is probably a victim in either Wyoming, Utah or Colorado (probably in that order of likelihood).

 

[Snoopster]

Keyes never lived in Idaho, I’m guessing you mean when he moved to Maupin OR when he was ~17/18?

But yeah I think the topography is important especially when looking at his earlier crimes (pre-Alaska). The problem is, most of those crimes probably took place in the PNW, and most of the PNW can be accurately described like that haha

The weird thing is, even though that pattern is widely accepted (and I do think is true to an extent), none of his known murders actually match that. Of the highest-percentage “maybes”, some of them do but some don’t - it’s maybe 50/50 depending on who is included on that list. Almost none of the NAMUS 45 look like that.

I do believe that was an MO of his at least early on, but I have no idea what to make of this discrepancy.


And re: your second post, I still don’t know how I feel about Keyes actually committing crimes based on Ted Bundy’s patterns, but I agree with you that there is probably a victim in either Wyoming, Utah or Colorado (probably in that order of likelihood).

I agree that we widely accept his pattern as he described it, but I think he strayed from that pattern a lot. I think Israel had trouble controlling his impulses, despite his efforts to plan. I don't think he was as neat and tidy has we believe.

 

[LeneYael]

From the last TCBS episode: through Josh’s discussion with Ted Halla, it seems likely that Keyes’ first victim post-discharge and the “accident” victim are one and the same. And it also seems likely that the “accident” victim was specifically presumed to have drowned.

Because there already was a fair amount believed to be true about both, when Josh combined the info it narrowed down the possibilities a lot. What they are most likely looking for is someone who:

-disappeared between 7/8/01 and 10/31/01, and was later found and presumed drowned. (May have been found after 10/31)

-was alone at the time of disappearance.

-did NOT occur in Washington, most likely occurred in Oregon.

No doubt it will be difficult to find info on a presumed drowning more than 20 years after the fact, but there can’t be that many such cases.

This DOES happen semi-regularly in the Willamette in and around Portland, but—and this is my own speculation—dumping a body in a river that runs through a major city does not really align with Keyes’ patterns. So I think first focusing well outside the Portland area makes the most sense, and that could be an extremely short list.

Another thing that’s weird about it though, how did Keyes even know the victim was found? It’s not like random local online news was as accessible in 2001 as it was later on, so I feel like it was probably something that received relatively widespread regional coverage for Keyes to have learned this from Neah Bay.

I am not very skilled at digging up old news stories and have had no luck thus far, but with the available info I’d be surprised if this victim wasn’t identified (or at least narrowed down to two or three possibilities) within the next few months.

What gave the impression that the first victim and the ”pressumed drowning/accident” were one and the same? I totally missed that part.

 

[LeneYael]

I agree that we widely accept his pattern as he described it, but I think he strayed from that pattern a lot. I think Israel had trouble controlling his impulses, despite his efforts to plan. I don't think he was as neat and tidy has we believe.

I agree that we widely accept his pattern as he described it, but I think he strayed from that pattern a lot. I think Israel had trouble controlling his impulses, despite his efforts to plan. I don't think he was as neat and tidy has we believe.

I think he might have done a very wide range of crimes, even though strangling and at the same time sticking a knife in the victims seems to have been what he was ”going for”. I don’t see how there can be any talk of an ”early MO”, given that we don’t know the victims nor what happened.

 

[LeneYael]

He definitely has a predictable MO of choosing areas near bodies of water that are deeply isolated to some degree. I'd look into states over that 10yr period of large body lakes of water in seclude wildlife parks, state parks, or near ones that get blocked by high mountain ranges that can't be seen from the other side of it (ie - hiking trails on the opposite side). There are probably almost similar looking landscapes in each place that match the look of what he grew up around in childhood and his teen years. So, knowing what it looked like in the area he lived in before moving to Idaho is probably a small clue to finding out where else he has been that hasn't been connected to him yet.

 

[dub]

What gave the impression that the first victim and the ”pressumed drowning/accident” were one and the same? I totally missed that part.

Sorry if my post was unclear, they don’t state that directly, there was some reading between the lines on my end. But it seemed heavily implied, at least to me, that that is the current thinking for both the FBI and TCBS.

There were three different parts of the episode where it was touched on: ~27min left, ~18min left, and Josh’s summary at the end. (Your time stamps may be different if you’re listening without ads)

Part of it though is looking at it through the lens of the FBI’s position that Keyes only had 11 US victims, four of which were in Washington.

I don’t believe that to be true (and I honestly don’t think the FBI does either), but I do think I understand why they’re approaching it that way:

-Halla is talking to TCBS because he wants help
-FBI has some kind of specific info on exactly 11 victims*, four of which are in WA
-The unknowns out of those 11 are the ones that they want help with, they’d rather people focus on those rather than going on a wild goose chase

But in any case, the crux of it is: the accident victim is an early victim, and it’s not a Washington victim (because none of the four WA victims have been found). So out of the 11, it is highly likely that this is what they are referring to.


*the “exactly 11” that the FBI has info on assumes that the wealthy grandmother victim is separate from any of the other cases, rather than being the accident victim, Crescent Lake victim, etc… Just to lay it out:

Samantha
Curriers
Debra
Ellensburg couple
Lake Crescent
Lake Ozette (?)
Texas
Accident victim
Wealthy grandmother woman

 

[imageofcontrol]

Sorry if my post was unclear, they don’t state that directly, there was some reading between the lines on my end. But it seemed heavily implied, at least to me, that that is the current thinking for both the FBI and TCBS.

There were three different parts of the episode where it was touched on: ~27min left, ~18min left, and Josh’s summary at the end. (Your time stamps may be different if you’re listening without ads)

Part of it though is looking at it through the lens of the FBI’s position that Keyes only had 11 US victims, four of which were in Washington.

I don’t believe that to be true (and I honestly don’t think the FBI does either), but I do think I understand why they’re approaching it that way:

-Halla is talking to TCBS because he wants help
-FBI has some kind of specific info on exactly 11 victims*, four of which are in WA
-The unknowns out of those 11 are the ones that they want help with, they’d rather people focus on those rather than going on a wild goose chase

But in any case, the crux of it is: the accident victim is an early victim, and it’s not a Washington victim (because none of the four WA victims have been found). So out of the 11, it is highly likely that this is what they are referring to.


*the “exactly 11” that the FBI has info on assumes that the wealthy grandmother victim is separate from any of the other cases, rather than being the accident victim, Crescent Lake victim, etc… Just to lay it out:

Samantha
Curriers
Debra
Ellensburg couple
Lake Crescent
Lake Ozette (?)
Texas
Accident victim
Wealthy grandmother woman

Was it ever stated that crescent lake had 2 victims submerged? Or am I confusing it with the 2 sets of DNA found on the bayliner? I suppose it could account for both Ozette and Crescent in that case too.

 

[dub]

Was it ever stated that crescent lake had 2 victims submerged? Or am I confusing it with the 2 sets of DNA found on the bayliner? I suppose it could account for both Ozette and Crescent in that case too.

No, there’s known to be one victim in Crescent and one in another lake that they think is most likely Ozette, but aren’t totally sure on the second one.

I didn’t think they were able to get any usable DNA out of the blood in the Bayliner because it had been exposed to the elements for too long, but I could be wrong about that. (Maybe it was two different blood types? idk)

Eta: I guess with the second lake being unknown it’s possible that the second boat victim is also in Crescent, but as I’ve said before, Lake Crescent is so exposed that even dropping one body there seems crazy to me, much less two.

I’m guessing that’s where the first one went, then Keyes realized how sketchy it was and chose a more remote lake such as Ozette for the second one.

 

[champagnecereal]

I had the thought that Lake Champlain seems like a possible place to search for Suzy Lyall’s remains. Keyes would have had to have driven by Lake Champlain on his trip from upstate New York to Albany for his GED test and army intake. Keyes had to have crossed over the Lake Champlain bridge connecting New York to Vermont during the Curriers murders. The deepest part of Lake Champlain is between Charlotte & Essex Vermont. This is the type of detail one would pick up while taking a ferry ride to Montreal which Keyes is known to have done on multiple occasions. I’d be willing to bet Keyes never planned to torch that farmhouse and always planned to go back and get the Currier’s remains so he could place them with Suzy Lyall’s and Debra Feldman’s remains.

 

[champagnecereal]

Additionally, since Keyes checked in to the Handy Suites(Sp?) in Vermont shortly after Debra Feldman’s disappearance, I think it’s likely he would have rented/stored a boat in Vermont for submerging remains. The hotel Keyes checked into after Debra Feldman’s disappearance & the Curriers murders appears to be the same too.

 

[dub]

Additionally, since Keyes checked in to the Handy Suites(Sp?) in Vermont shortly after Debra Feldman’s disappearance, I think it’s likely he would have rented/stored a boat in Vermont for submerging remains. The hotel Keyes checked into after Debra Feldman’s disappearance & the Curriers murders appears to be the same too.

A couple notes on the above posts:

1. Aerial footage of Keyes’ property actually showed something that very much looked to TCBS like a boat there, but this is unconfirmed, and if it is a boat it’s unknown the exact time frame in which he possessed it. I want to say the picture was from like 2005 but could be wrong - I think they talk about it in season 6 episode 3.

2. It’s pretty widely believed that Debra is near Tupper Lake. I can’t recall off hand if this came directly from Keyes or what.

3. You are correct that it was the same hotel for Debra and the Curriers. And it’s interesting that right before he abducted Debra he was in a hotel in Colchester, which is even closer to Lake Champlain than Essex. I actually didn’t know this until now, I thought he was based at Handy Suites both before and after.

4. (Question): Would Lake Champlain even be accessible by boat in early March when Suzy disappeared, or in early April when Debra disappeared? I’d think at least in early March it would be frozen, but I could be wrong.


In any case, I don’t think Debra is in Champlain or that there was an idea to bring the Curriers there, but it is an interesting outside-the-box idea particularly for Suzy. Even if not accessible by boat, it could have been an ice disposal like Samantha. I do think Suzy is in the general area of Constable, and the less-populated NY side of Champlain does actually make quite a bit of sense. I’d never thought about that before.

 

[dub]

@minazoe

[For others, I'm pulling this discussion over from the Maura Murray thread to avoid derailment there - check out that thread if you want context]

One of the main things I look at when assessing a case for Keyes' possible involvement is whether there are plausible alternative explanations for a disappearance. It's probably the single biggest factor outside of confirmation of Keyes' presence in the area at the time.

Suzy Lyall's case is a good example of a case where there are essentially zero. Lyn Ohana and Nancy Reagey (sp?) are a couple others.

Most have one.

Some have two - Roger Jung, Jon Corey, Petrone/Imbo, etc.

Del Sample, if you squint, might have three.

Maura Murray is one of two cases I've ever looked at that have at least four (the other is Marble Arvidson), and in Marble's case the alternative explanations are only vaguely plausible, whereas in Maura's all of them besides intentional disappearance are highly plausible.

That's the biggest reason why at this point I lean heavily against Keyes being involved in Maura's disappearance.

 

[minazoe]

I don't think I'm derailing the thread, Maura is still missing, the whole case is totally unsolved. mOO

 

[dub]

I don't think I'm derailing the thread, Maura is still missing, the whole case is totally unsolved. mOO

Oh no, I 100% was not trying to imply that you personally were derailing the thread!

If anything, I was the one risking derailing it by throwing random Keyes stuff into it that's not necessarily applicable to Maura [eta: and my above post in here would have derailed the hell out of it haha]. And I do think the whole discussion is relevant there, I just know those threads are pretty testy at times and not everyone agrees, and I was trying to get out in front of it.

Sorry about the confusion, I didn't choose my words carefully enough and that's on me.

 

[deadfoot13]

A couple notes on the above posts:

2. It’s pretty widely believed that Debra is near Tupper Lake. I can’t recall off hand if this came directly from Keyes or what.

4. (Question): Would Lake Champlain even be accessible by boat in early March when Suzy disappeared, or in early April when Debra disappeared? I’d think at least in early March it would be frozen, but I could be wrong.


In any case, I don’t think Debra is in Champlain or that there was an idea to bring the Curriers there, but it is an interesting outside-the-box idea particularly for Suzy. Even if not accessible by boat, it could have been an ice disposal like Samantha. I do think Suzy is in the general area of Constable, and the less-populated NY side of Champlain does actually make quite a bit of sense. I’d never thought about that before.

RSBM

I believe the info about Debra/Tupper Lake came from the FBI. I am not certain if some of the further details came out on TCBS or in the FBI interviews, but I recall information about the boat launch on the Raquette River outside of Tupper Lake being a possible disposal site and a search being conducted in that area (it caught my interest because I have been at that boat launch several times.) I also recall details about Keyes camping at the nearby Fish Creek Ponds campground and there being witnesses to his presence there (again, it stuck in my head because I have camped there many times); if I remember correctly, they think that he was there directly after he robbed the bank in Tupper Lake.

Links to support that the information came from the FBI:

FBI: Serial killer buried victim "near Tupper Lake"

FBI officials say they believe the serial killer Israel Keyes may have buried the body of one of his victims near the Adirondack town of Tupper Lake. According to a statement released yesterday by investigators, the FBI believes that one of Keyes' victims...

www.northcountrypublicradio.org

FBI: Israel Keyes may have buried N.J. woman in Tupper Lake area

TUPPER LAKE — Federal authorities are trying to determine whether a suspected serial killer was involved in the disappearance of a northern New Jersey woman, who they believe may be buried in the Tupper Lake area. The FBI released a statement today that Keyes admitted that on April 9, 2009, he...

www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com

As far as Lake Champlain freezing over completely, it does happen, but not often. It would not have been frozen over completely in April. Although areas would be accessible by boat, I would think any small/pleasure craft would draw attention since it's not really the time of year for recreational boating (that's just MOO based on the fact that there is still a lot of snow up there during March/April and it's pretty darn cold out.) On the flip side, many of the seasonal cottages along the shoreline would be vacant and that would decrease the chance of being noticed.

This article has a chart showing the history of Lake Champlain ice closure:

200 Years of Lake Champlain Ice Data – Climate Change in Action - Lake Champlain Committee

www.lakechamplaincommittee.org

 

[LeneYael]

Sorry if my post was unclear, they don’t state that directly, there was some reading between the lines on my end. But it seemed heavily implied, at least to me, that that is the current thinking for both the FBI and TCBS.

There were three different parts of the episode where it was touched on: ~27min left, ~18min left, and Josh’s summary at the end. (Your time stamps may be different if you’re listening without ads)

Part of it though is looking at it through the lens of the FBI’s position that Keyes only had 11 US victims, four of which were in Washington.

I don’t believe that to be true (and I honestly don’t think the FBI does either), but I do think I understand why they’re approaching it that way:

-Halla is talking to TCBS because he wants help
-FBI has some kind of specific info on exactly 11 victims*, four of which are in WA
-The unknowns out of those 11 are the ones that they want help with, they’d rather people focus on those rather than going on a wild goose chase

But in any case, the crux of it is: the accident victim is an early victim, and it’s not a Washington victim (because none of the four WA victims have been found). So out of the 11, it is highly likely that this is what they are referring to.


*the “exactly 11” that the FBI has info on assumes that the wealthy grandmother victim is separate from any of the other cases, rather than being the accident victim, Crescent Lake victim, etc… Just to lay it out:

Samantha
Curriers
Debra
Ellensburg couple
Lake Crescent
Lake Ozette (?)
Texas
Accident victim
Wealthy grandmother woman

It’s unclear to me how or why the drowning/accident victim would be the first/possibly out of state victim, particulary when Agent Halla talked about drownings per year in WA state.
I know the part in the interviews where Keyes talks about Ellensburg, and east and west WA. I do not know why a couple would be attached to that? If anyone knows (actually knows, not “because Josh said so” knows), do tell!
I see your point in why FBI would want to say it’s eleven victims, even if they wouldn’t really believe it. I’ve thought about that a lot too. Did you know the average number of victims for an offender like Keyes is twelve? That made me think eleven actually is likely. Also, because Keyes said he’d run out of “stories”, and “now wished he hadn’t have restarined himself as much as he did”. It also fits with him saying “Washington is a good backup plan”. That would imply more victims in WA, than other places.

 

[LeneYael]

So I’m in Washington right now and had a chance to check out Lake Crescent yesterday.

Up front I must say that Keyes stuff aside, I’ve been to a lot of lakes and this was the most beautiful one I’ve ever seen, without question.

But as it relates to Keyes… TCBS they noted that the boat ramp they think he used (the one with the stuff underwater that the cops won’t investigate) is more heavily traveled than the one on the other side of the lake, but is still not very crowded.

This was not my experience at all. I didn’t know until I looked it up later which ramp they thought he used, and my first thought when I got there is “no way it was this one”. There’s a ranger station right there, and there had to be 50 cars parked within 200 yards of the launch, and most of the shoreline is easily visible. This website has a picture looking out from the launch.

Storm King Boat Launch (U.S. National Park Service)

I suspect if this actually was the dump site it was somewhere along the shoreline to the left of what’s shown in the picture, which is a little more secluded,because if what TCBS found is legit it’s only 30 yards off shore. But either way it is an insanely risky place to sink a body 30 yards from shore.

In any case, the crowd there makes me think Keyes may have sunk the body there in the winter or close to it. I’m sure it’s not that crowded during the week at this time of year, but in the summer it very well may be.

I had thought for a while that Mike Mason was the most likely Lake Crescent victim by far, but this makes me very curious about Lyn Ohana. I’ve never really thought she was a Keyes victim, but she is the closest possibility I have that disappeared in or near winter 05/06 or 06/07.

It also occurred to me that it doesn’t make a lot of sense to move a body out of a super remote area to a dump site that is pretty well traveled (which would be the case if it was Mike), but Lyn disappeared from a decent sized town