Israel Keyes: General Discussion

[dub]

It’s unclear to me how or why the drowning/accident victim would be the first/possibly out of state victim, particulary when Agent Halla talked about drownings per year in WA state.
I know the part in the interviews where Keyes talks about Ellensburg, and east and west WA. I do not know why a couple would be attached to that? If anyone knows (actually knows, not “because Josh said so” knows), do tell!
I see your point in why FBI would want to say it’s eleven victims, even if they wouldn’t really believe it. I’ve thought about that a lot too. Did you know the average number of victims for an offender like Keyes is twelve? That made me think eleven actually is likely. Also, because Keyes said he’d run out of “stories”, and “now wished he hadn’t have restarined himself as much as he did”. It also fits with him saying “Washington is a good backup plan”. That would imply more victims in WA, than other places.

The “Ellensburg couple” info came from Keyes himself, Halla talks about it. Keyes gave vague info about the location of the murder/disposal and the female victim (but not the male for some reason).

There is not really any reason to believe they are specifically connected to Ellensburg, or that they are a “couple” as such—just a male/female pair of some kind. Because he described the woman as “older” but did not state anything like this about the man, I kind of lean away from them being an actual couple.

Re: the FBI’s current victim count, it’s interesting that TCBS released something after the season ended in which they went through a similar exercise to what I did, but for a different reason. But they included a reference that I’d never heard of where Keyes apparently said something like his first murder went perfectly, so their “known” victim count was 12 instead of 11 unless that murder was in Canada.

If that’s true, that means either his first murder was before he got out of the army (in contrast to what the FBI thinks) or my theory that the accident victim was the first one post-army is wrong.

 

[Tricia]

Websleuths will be off-line temporarily on Friday, Feb. 14th. For more info CLICK HERE

 

[dub]

CA - CA - Grass Valley, AsnMale, 25-50, UP16793, KIA car key, wedding ring, found drowned in Rollins Lake, Oct'02

This just got posted in the UID forum and has me wondering about the accident victim.

The timing and location are just okay enough for me to give this UID consideration, but the circumstances are very much in line with what I’d expect the accident victim to look like.

A complicating factor though is the disappearance of Celia Barnes from southern Oregon a few weeks earlier. To me Keyes’ involvement in that case is a coin flip, she’s a likelier victim than most, and IF Keyes was responsible for her that makes the location of the UID more in line with Keyes but the timing less in line.

The location and timing are also interesting because Keyes definitely spent a fair amount of time in that region (it’s close to Sacramento, at least by Keyes’ standards) but I’m not aware of him traveling there until quite a bit later.

Thoughts?

 

[minazoe]

Is Celia the case with the car crashed into the barn kind of? mOO

 

[dub]

Is Celia the case with the car crashed into the barn kind of? mOO

No, I think you’re thinking of Brianna Maitland.

Celia’s disappearance is hard to explain so I’ll just drop the CP link:

Celia Darlene Barnes – The Charley Project

It’s a case that for a long time I didn’t think was Keyes, but TCBS feels pretty strongly that it was and is one of the ones that the FBI has been especially cagey on.

 

[champagnecereal]

@minazoe

[For others, I'm pulling this discussion over from the Maura Murray thread to avoid derailment there - check out that thread if you want context]

One of the main things I look at when assessing a case for Keyes' possible involvement is whether there are plausible alternative explanations for a disappearance. It's probably the single biggest factor outside of confirmation of Keyes' presence in the area at the time.

Suzy Lyall's case is a good example of a case where there are essentially zero. Lyn Ohana and Nancy Reagey (sp?) are a couple others.

Most have one.

Some have two - Roger Jung, Jon Corey, Petrone/Imbo, etc.

Del Sample, if you squint, might have three.

Maura Murray is one of two cases I've ever looked at that have at least four (the other is Marble Arvidson), and in Marble's case the alternative explanations are only vaguely plausible, whereas in Maura's all of them besides intentional disappearance are highly plausible.

That's the biggest reason why at this point I lean heavily against Keyes being involved in Maura's disappearance.

Dubs
Have you seen the Port Townsend Leader article about Lyn Ohana that came out a few months after her disappearance?

Lyn’s family hired a private investigator to help with the search. That PI deployed search dogs that lost Lyn’s scent by a shuttered Golden Age retirement club directly across the street from Chetzemoka park. The dog picked up Lyn’s scent, specifically a death scent, farther away at the Fort Worden state park. The dog picked up the death scent at a few other locations like rat island, port canal bridge and the vicinity of the Edmonds Ferry terminal.

There’s not a lot of information about Lyn online other than she did not drive, relied on public transportation, worked as a massage therapist in Seattle & was a practicing Buddhist. Also of note, an employee at a convenience store believed they saw Lyn with a “dark haired man” the night she disappeared.

I did a little digging and it appears at least one of the local Asana’s(Buddhist group) would meet at the park where Lyn’s scent was lost by the dog. I couldn’t find anything digital to confirm that the asana was meeting at Chetzemoka park in 2006. Maybe Lyn was going to meet with another Buddhist practitioner or someone curious about Buddhism? There’s nothing to suggest Keyes was interested in Buddhism, at least not to my knowledge but he at least appeared to be interested in other doctrines.

I also wondered if Lyn, who relied on public transportation to get to work, took a bus that traveled partially on a ferry to get to Seattle. Keyes was taking quite a few ferry rides during this time. Was he parking on the ferry and then driving in port Townsend? If so, this could explain the dog picking up the death scent traveling towards Seattle.

I also wondered if Lyn’s employer was advertising the massage business on Craigslist at the time. I tried looking on the way back machine and did find some massage therapist advertising on there. Keyes used to promote his handy man services on Craigslist and admitted to finding prostitutes through Craigslist posts. It would help to know what the name of Lyn’s massage company was and if they indeed advertised on Craigslist.

Keyes made a few ferry trips to port Townsend in the months leading up to Lyn’s disappearance and I believe one trip after. I wondered if Keyes left a cache in fort worden state park during one of his early trips. Used it and then retrieved it during that lone trip to Port Townsend.

Whether or not Keyes is involved in Lyn Ohana’s disappearance, my feeling is that Lyn likely died at Fort Worden state park that night and was transported via the ferry to the Edmonds Ferry terminal. The local asana would be a great place to start. It would be great to know the name of her employer to get a better idea of how they were getting customers in 2006. Or if Lyn might’ve had any uncomfortable interactions with any of her clients.Articles about Lyn Ohana

 

[dub]

Dubs
Have you seen the Port Townsend Leader article about Lyn Ohana that came out a few months after her disappearance?

Lyn’s family hired a private investigator to help with the search. That PI deployed search dogs that lost Lyn’s scent by a shuttered Golden Age retirement club directly across the street from Chetzemoka park. The dog picked up Lyn’s scent, specifically a death scent, farther away at the Fort Worden state park. The dog picked up the death scent at a few other locations like rat island, port canal bridge and the vicinity of the Edmonds Ferry terminal.

There’s not a lot of information about Lyn online other than she did not drive, relied on public transportation, worked as a massage therapist in Seattle & was a practicing Buddhist. Also of note, an employee at a convenience store believed they saw Lyn with a “dark haired man” the night she disappeared.

I did a little digging and it appears at least one of the local Asana’s(Buddhist group) would meet at the park where Lyn’s scent was lost by the dog. I couldn’t find anything digital to confirm that the asana was meeting at Chetzemoka park in 2006. Maybe Lyn was going to meet with another Buddhist practitioner or someone curious about Buddhism? There’s nothing to suggest Keyes was interested in Buddhism, at least not to my knowledge but he at least appeared to be interested in other doctrines.

I also wondered if Lyn, who relied on public transportation to get to work, took a bus that traveled partially on a ferry to get to Seattle. Keyes was taking quite a few ferry rides during this time. Was he parking on the ferry and then driving in port Townsend? If so, this could explain the dog picking up the death scent traveling towards Seattle.

I also wondered if Lyn’s employer was advertising the massage business on Craigslist at the time. I tried looking on the way back machine and did find some massage therapist advertising on there. Keyes used to promote his handy man services on Craigslist and admitted to finding prostitutes through Craigslist posts. It would help to know what the name of Lyn’s massage company was and if they indeed advertised on Craigslist.

Keyes made a few ferry trips to port Townsend in the months leading up to Lyn’s disappearance and I believe one trip after. I wondered if Keyes left a cache in fort worden state park during one of his early trips. Used it and then retrieved it during that lone trip to Port Townsend.

Whether or not Keyes is involved in Lyn Ohana’s disappearance, my feeling is that Lyn likely died at Fort Worden state park that night and was transported via the ferry to the Edmonds Ferry terminal. The local asana would be a great place to start. It would be great to know the name of her employer to get a better idea of how they were getting customers in 2006. Or if Lyn might’ve had any uncomfortable interactions with any of her clients.Articles about Lyn Ohana

Whoa no I haven’t seen that. Ton of good information there.

Those locations are super widespread and weird. I’m guessing by “Port Canal bridge” you mean the Hood Canal bridge? If so that would definitely be consistent with transportation from Port Townsend to Kingston, where the ferry to Edmonds picks up. (The ferry does not go to Edmonds from Port Townsend)

The problem is, I don’t see why Keyes would transport a body into basically Seattle. But he could have transported some other related items without the body I guess.

I doubt Keyes had a cache in Fort Worden Park, not remote enough, but we know he had more than one near Port Angeles (on the way from Neah Bay to Port Townsend) and I strongly suspect he had one on Whidbey Island where the ferry from Port Townsend ends up.

Also according to Charley Project Lyn was self-employed, which makes it more likely she was using Craigslist or similar.

Very nice work, this is way more info on Lyn’s disappearance than I’d seen before.

 

[champagnecereal]

Whoa no I haven’t seen that. Ton of good information there.

Those locations are super widespread and weird. I’m guessing by “Port Canal bridge” you mean the Hood Canal bridge? If so that would definitely be consistent with transportation from Port Townsend to Kingston, where the ferry to Edmonds picks up. (The ferry does not go to Edmonds from Port Townsend)

The problem is, I don’t see why Keyes would transport a body into basically Seattle. But he could have transported some other related items without the body I guess.

I doubt Keyes had a cache in Fort Worden Park, not remote enough, but we know he had more than one near Port Angeles (on the way from Neah Bay to Port Townsend) and I strongly suspect he had one on Whidbey Island where the ferry from Port Townsend ends up.

Also according to Charley Project Lyn was self-employed, which makes it more likely she was using Craigslist or similar.

Very nice work, this is way more info on Lyn’s disappearance than I’d seen before.

If the Port Townsend Leader article from April 2006 is legit, Lyn Ohana was employed and her employer spoke to her mother after Lyn missed work. That article, for some reason, specifically mentioned that Lyn’s employer was not a suspect which automatically makes me suspicious of them lol.

I also doubt Keyes would have taken a body to Seattle given the little bit we know from the FBI transcripts.

The article I referred to references several areas that the bloodhounds detected a death scent that I’m completely unfamiliar with. The best I was able to gather is that the scent seemed to have traveled along a route accessible by ferry. The main takeaway for me was that the scent seemed to have disappeared near the Edmonds ferry terminal meaning. My current line of thinking is that someone transported Lyn Ohana via ferry to the Edmonds ferry terminal and took her to her current destination. But I’ll be the first to admit I’m making some huge assumptions here. I have no clue about Washington state ferries and their routes. In fact, up until 3 weeks ago, I had no such a thing existed.

Edit: why Whidbey Island?

 

[dub]

If the Port Townsend Leader article from April 2006 is legit, Lyn Ohana was employed and her employer spoke to her mother after Lyn missed work. That article, for some reason, specifically mentioned that Lyn’s employer was not a suspect which automatically makes me suspicious of them lol.

I also doubt Keyes would have taken a body to Seattle given the little bit we know from the FBI transcripts.

The article I referred to references several areas that the bloodhounds detected a death scent that I’m completely unfamiliar with. The best I was able to gather is that the scent seemed to have traveled along a route accessible by ferry. The main takeaway for me was that the scent seemed to have disappeared near the Edmonds ferry terminal meaning. My current line of thinking is that someone transported Lyn Ohana via ferry to the Edmonds ferry terminal and took her to her current destination. But I’ll be the first to admit I’m making some huge assumptions here. I have no clue about Washington state ferries and their routes. In fact, up until 3 weeks ago, I had no such a thing existed.

Edit: why Whidbey Island?

Ah gotcha. Charley Project is not 100% accurate so the articles employer info is most likely correct.

And yeah, I am familiar with most of the locations and they do generally suggest a direct path from Port Townsend to Edmonds via the ferry from Kingston. The exception is the hits on Rat Island, which is in the area of the other locations as the crow flies but seemingly way out of the way by road. (That’s the one location here I haven’t been to and am only going by maps)

I suspect a cache on Whidbey due to the ferry trips you mentioned in your first post, the explanation requires understanding of the ferries.

Keyes took the ferry from Kingston to Edmonds on almost every trip off the peninsula, but on 8/22/05 he took it from Port Townsend to Clinton (which is on Whidbey) to Mukilteo, and went back along the same route the next day. The turnaround between ferries in Clinton was quick on both trips, so it’s not plausible that he had a whole lot going on there. There had to be a reason he took that specific route that day because the end points of that route and his usual one, Mukilteo and Edmonds, are directly next to each other. It’s pointless to take two ferries on a longer overall trip when one will get you to almost the exact same place.

So I suspect he dropped a cache on Whidbey near Clinton/Keystone on the middle leg of his trip on 8/22, and went back the next day on his return trip to conceal it better.

 

[dub]

Ah gotcha. Charley Project is not 100% accurate so the articles employer info is most likely correct.

And yeah, I am familiar with most of the locations and they do generally suggest a direct path from Port Townsend to Edmonds via the ferry from Kingston. The exception is the hits on Rat Island, which is in the area of the other locations as the crow flies but seemingly way out of the way by road. (That’s the one location here I haven’t been to and am only going by maps)

I suspect a cache on Whidbey due to the ferry trips you mentioned in your first post, the explanation requires understanding of the ferries.

Keyes took the ferry from Kingston to Edmonds on almost every trip off the peninsula, but on 8/22/05 he took it from Port Townsend to Clinton (which is on Whidbey) to Mukilteo, and went back along the same route the next day. The turnaround between ferries in Clinton was quick on both trips, so it’s not plausible that he had a whole lot going on there. There had to be a reason he took that specific route that day because the end points of that route and his usual one, Mukilteo and Edmonds, are directly next to each other. It’s pointless to take two ferries on a longer overall trip when one will get you to almost the exact same place.

So I suspect he dropped a cache on Whidbey near Clinton/Keystone on the middle leg of his trip on 8/22, and went back the next day on his return trip to conceal it better.

Just realized in the above post I had Rat Island and Indian Island mixed up, they are right next to each other but Rat Island doesn’t seem to be accessible by car at all! Wtf

 

[MesquiteO21]

I had the thought that Lake Champlain seems like a possible place to search for Suzy Lyall’s remains. Keyes would have had to have driven by Lake Champlain on his trip from upstate New York to Albany for his GED test and army intake. Keyes had to have crossed over the Lake Champlain bridge connecting New York to Vermont during the Curriers murders. The deepest part of Lake Champlain is between Charlotte & Essex Vermont. This is the type of detail one would pick up while taking a ferry ride to Montreal which Keyes is known to have done on multiple occasions. I’d be willing to bet Keyes never planned to torch that farmhouse and always planned to go back and get the Currier’s remains so he could place them with Suzy Lyall’s and Debra Feldman’s remains.

my only problem with Lake Champlain is that it's a pretty famous and well-traveled spot, which i would presume he would've wanted to avoid. but it's also large so i do think it's a possibility if he went in a more secluded area

moo

 

[MesquiteO21]

In the new TCBS episode they got answers back on a whole bunch of questions they asked the FBI, a lot to unpack here but here are some key notes:

The two biggest revelations to me were:

1.) The description of the "wealthy grandmother" victim perfectly matches Brianna Maitland. I have no idea how I had never noticed this, maybe I was just blind to it because I've never thought she was a Keyes victim. It's unclear whether she actually had a wealthy grandmother though, they don't specify that in the episode although it does kind of sound like they're alluding to it.

2.) The couple that Keyes spoke of was pretty definitively NOT Kami and Gene, this was the still-unknown "Ellensburg couple". But that doesn't mean he was not also responsible for Kami and Gene - a bit more on this later.


Also, they ran a bunch of names by the FBI just to see what they'd say about them. There was nothing affirmative, their responses fell into a few categories (just in case anyone's curious):

Good answers (Keyes can probably be ruled out)
-Karen Adams
-Jack Coloney

Defer to local LE (make of that what you will)
-Rachael Cooke
-Lauren Spierer
-Brianna Maitland
-Jimmy Tidwell

Non-answers
-Mike Mason
-Suzy Lyall
-Jon Corey

Unsatisfactory answers
-Marble Arvidson
-Kim Forbes

Really unsatisfactory answers that almost make it more likely Keyes was involved
-Donald Tobin
-Noah Myoung

Totally ignored the question (make of that what you will)
-Kami and Gene
-Celia Barnes
-Mark Oldbury

i would love to run Brandon Swanson's name by the FBI....

defer to local LE seems like a no to me, but i could be wrong

non-answers is very suspicious

ignored the question could go either way

hmmmmmm...

MOO

 

[dub]

i would love to run Brandon Swanson's name by the FBI....

defer to local LE seems like a no to me, but i could be wrong

non-answers is very suspicious

ignored the question could go either way

hmmmmmm...

MOO

The "defer to local LE" category is by far the weirdest to me, just because the names in that category are all over the place in terms of Keyes' likelihood of involvement.

Like, I highly doubt Rachael Cooke is a victim*, I'd be shocked if Jimmy Tidwell was not, and Brianna and Lauren are varying degrees of in-between (I think Lauren was and Brianna was not, but I'm far from certain on either.)

Also even though I don't think Keyes had anything to do with Brandon Swanson, I also would love to run him by both the FBI and TCBS, as (I think) both have looked into the case--and TCBS has him listed on their timeline as a "potential victim"--but to my knowledge neither has said much about it.


*TCBS seems much more open to Rachael as a potential victim than I am though, and I must admit the most detailed suspect sketch in that case looks a lot like Keyes (and another one is a crappy sketch but sort of looks like him too). But they also look like a lot of other dudes that are not Keyes.

 

[MesquiteO21]

The "defer to local LE" category is by far the weirdest to me, just because the names in that category are all over the place in terms of Keyes' likelihood of involvement.

Like, I highly doubt Rachael Cooke is a victim*, I'd be shocked if Jimmy Tidwell was not, and Brianna and Lauren are varying degrees of in-between (I think Lauren was and Brianna was not, but I'm far from certain on either.)

Also even though I don't think Keyes had anything to do with Brandon Swanson, I also would love to run him by both the FBI and TCBS, as (I think) both have looked into the case--and TCBS has him listed on their timeline as a "potential victim"--but to my knowledge neither has said much about it.


*TCBS seems much more open to Rachael as a potential victim than I am though, and I must admit the most detailed suspect sketch in that case looks a lot like Keyes (and another one is a crappy sketch but sort of looks like him too). But they also look like a lot of other dudes that are not Keyes.

I agree about Lauren and Brianna, I’m not super for them being victims but also not against it either. I used to think no way for Lauren but based on some info presented here I’ve come around a little more to the idea. Brianna is another I kind of think not Keyes, just because if I recall correctly she was (allegedly) involved with some sketchy activities and people. But thats also not necessarily a strong factor to rule out Keyes either.

It’s kind of funny how sometimes we think sketches look alike or look like certain killers. I was watching videos on Al Kite the other day and some people think Keyes matches the sketch and the grainy ATM surveillance video. I can sort of see it so I understand why some people think it could’ve been him. Personally I don’t think it’s very likely though. “Robert Cooper”s method of searching for a place to live seems too proactive for Keyes (I think he said he mostly let the victims “come to him”) plus just leaving the body to be found at the crime scene is basically the antithesis of Keyes. I know they did ancestry testing on the blood that was found at the crime scene that wasn’t Al’s and it turned out to be someone of Balkan descent which matches the one witness who said she thought “Robert” spoke with a Romanian accent. I’m not aware of Keyes ancestry but I kinda doubt it’s Romanian, or at least not fully.

moo

 

[dub]

I agree about Lauren and Brianna, I’m not super for them being victims but also not against it either. I used to think no way for Lauren but based on some info presented here I’ve come around a little more to the idea. Brianna is another I kind of think not Keyes, just because if I recall correctly she was (allegedly) involved with some sketchy activities and people. But thats also not necessarily a strong factor to rule out Keyes either.

It’s kind of funny how sometimes we think sketches look alike or look like certain killers. I was watching videos on Al Kite the other day and some people think Keyes matches the sketch and the grainy ATM surveillance video. I can sort of see it so I understand why some people think it could’ve been him. Personally I don’t think it’s very likely though. “Robert Cooper”s method of searching for a place to live seems too proactive for Keyes (I think he said he mostly let the victims “come to him”) plus just leaving the body to be found at the crime scene is basically the antithesis of Keyes. I know they did ancestry testing on the blood that was found at the crime scene that wasn’t Al’s and it turned out to be someone of Balkan descent which matches the one witness who said she thought “Robert” spoke with a Romanian accent. I’m not aware of Keyes ancestry but I kinda doubt it’s Romanian, or at least not fully.

moo

I used to think there was no way Keyes was involved in either Lauren or Brianna’s disappearances, although in Lauren’s case it was mostly because I made a mistake working through the timeline and thought it was logistically impossible (which it definitely was not).

Brianna’s case is so, so weird to me, both in general and in terms of evaluating Keyes’ potential involvement. I’m open to Keyes on that one mostly because I really have no idea what to think.

And I almost entirely rule Keyes out on Al Kite at this point, mostly for the same reasons you mentioned. I do think the ATM video guy resembles Keyes, but I don’t think the sketch does at all.

Speaking of Al Kite, unrelated to Keyes, I recently learned of another unsolved case 1000 miles away and a couple years later that is almost identical. Look up Jim Duckett, it’s crazy how similar they are in such specific ways but I highly doubt they were committed by the same person. It’s kind of a variant on the theme you mentioned in how people are inclined to draw connections between cases.

I suspect Brianna’s case is like this in relation to Keyes. On the surface her disappearance looks exactly like a Keyes case, and I don’t really have any reason to think it wasn’t him, I just don’t think it was.

 

[dub]

I've been giving some thought to something mentioned on the most recent Somewhere in the Pines episode. They mentioned a tip placing Keyes in a state/area (can't remember which they said) that he has no record of ever being otherwise at a specific time. They aren't able to talk about the tip yet, which leads me to suspect there is a case it's possibly connected to (because if it's not, who cares if they share it?)

Obviously the location can't be narrowed down much, but based on the context in their description the timing of the sighting can be - it was probably in November or the first half of December 2011. So I went down a rabbit hole to see if anything stood out to me, and there were three or four vague possibilities, but one of them was a case I'm familiar with and have in the back of my mind for reasons mostly unrelated to Keyes:

Timur Rafaelyevich Mardeyev – The Charley Project

I looked into this case a while back in relation to Keyes. While it resembles a Keyes case in some ways, and the timeline doesn't rule out his involvement, I decided it very likely was not one (in part due to the geography). But this case sticks with me because there is a second case, only six months apart in time but in a totally different region, that both looks even more like a Keyes case and is impossibly similar to Timur's in weirdly specific ways:

Kenneth James Williams Jr. – The Charley Project

I seriously cannot wrap my head around these cases and their similarities. I see almost no chance the details could align so tightly by coincidence, but I also see no chance that the same person was responsible unless it was Keyes, but I also really don't think he was responsible for them.

The TCBS timeline doesn't explicitly rule out Keyes for either of them, although he might be accounted for when Ace Williams disappeared - that was around the time he was staking out Eagle River in AK, but the exact dates of that have never been made public (if they are even known by the FBI). Based on his presence in Eagle River also on 4/28/11 and Kim being out of town I'm guessing his stakeout was at the very beginning of May rather than mid-May, but it's just a guess.

Super random too that I rediscovered these cases right after posting about the weird synergy between the Kite and Duckett cases above, it's the same general idea but these two cases have way more Keyes indicators than Kite/Duckett. I still don't think he was responsible for either of them, but I can't shake them.

 

[champagnecereal]

Ernest Wright
This case stood out to me for a few reasons. The big one being that like Amir D'Rod Jennings of the Namus-45, Ernest Wright is from Columbia, SC.

Amir Jennings was only one at the time of his disappearance and believed to have been in the company of an adult female relative at the time so I’m comfortable excluding Keyes here.

As far as I know, there are no records of Keyes ever having been in South Carolina. If Keyes was searching for missing persons from Columbia, SC in December 2011, there’d only have been 5 days between the last known sighting of these two.

Jon Clair Barrett – The Charley Project

I also thought the circumstances around Jon Clair Barrett’s(Pocatello, Idaho) disappearance seemed to be Keyes like. The big caveat here is that the timeline seems to preclude Keyes as there’s record of a flight from Seattle to Anchorage on 11/5/2008.

Mr Barrett disappeared from his home on the night of 11/9/2008. Leaving his diabetic medication & his dogs behind. Then his car reappeared at his home shortly after he was reported missing. Keyes mentioned something about being wary of dogs while discussing the Currier’s I believe. Possibly because of a situation similar to this? I should also add that Jon’s friend was arrested six months later after using his debit card so there’s a much more viable alternative suspect here.

I’ve been looking through the foia’ed photos and haven’t found anything notable. Im looking forward to hearing more about this itinerary and book.

 

[champagnecereal]

I tried running some software on a photo of Keyes computer desk in Alaska. The results were mostly gibberish. “Tybee” as in Tybee Island in Georgia was the only thing remotely resembling a location I was able to extract.

 

[dub]

Ernest Wright
This case stood out to me for a few reasons. The big one being that like Amir D'Rod Jennings of the Namus-45, Ernest Wright is from Columbia, SC.

Amir Jennings was only one at the time of his disappearance and believed to have been in the company of an adult female relative at the time so I’m comfortable excluding Keyes here.

As far as I know, there are no records of Keyes ever having been in South Carolina. If Keyes was searching for missing persons from Columbia, SC in December 2011, there’d only have been 5 days between the last known sighting of these two.

Jon Clair Barrett – The Charley Project

I also thought the circumstances around Jon Clair Barrett’s(Pocatello, Idaho) disappearance seemed to be Keyes like. The big caveat here is that the timeline seems to preclude Keyes as there’s record of a flight from Seattle to Anchorage on 11/5/2008.

Mr Barrett disappeared from his home on the night of 11/9/2008. Leaving his diabetic medication & his dogs behind. Then his car reappeared at his home shortly after he was reported missing. Keyes mentioned something about being wary of dogs while discussing the Currier’s I believe. Possibly because of a situation similar to this? I should also add that Jon’s friend was arrested six months later after using his debit card so there’s a much more viable alternative suspect here.

I’ve been looking through the foia’ed photos and haven’t found anything notable. Im looking forward to hearing more about this itinerary and book.

I noticed Ernest Wright too going through cases in that Nov/Dec date range recently, can’t recall if that was one of the three or four I locked in on.

The weird thing about Amir Jennings (which yeah 100% Keyes had nothing to do with) is his DLC seems pretty unclear. I did a quick check to verify - Namus has 12/5, but CP says 11/22 and some news stories have 11/29.

I knew Namus and CP had different dates, but I either hadn’t seen or had forgotten about the 11/29 date. It’s obviously a very different location, but that’s the exact day Timur Mardeyev disappeared.

 

[dub]

Speaking of cases that are probably not Keyes but I just can’t shake, this is one I’ve had my eye on for a long time:

Peter Achermann – The Charley Project

I have a list of cases on my radar that I’ve never seen attributed to Keyes anywhere, and the two on that list that look the absolute most like Keyes based on the circumstances are Ace Williams and this one. And in Ace’s disappearance there are reasonable alternative scenarios, but in this one I don’t really see any.

I initially ruled Keyes out on this one due to the timeline, but the more I look at it, his alibi is just okay. It’s far from bulletproof.

Keyes had a construction job 7/20-7/30, but 7/24 was a friday and I don’t see why he couldn’t have taken a long weekend in the middle of a job. He had a transaction in AK on 7/23 (time of day unknown), but unless it was right before Home Depot closed I doubt that would preclude him from easily getting to Minnesota by mid-day the next day.

I think a lot about Keyes’ statement that his victims ranged from late teens to elderly. There are many high % late teens victims, but basically none that are “elderly” (depending on Keyes’ definition). If Keyes considered like 65 “elderly” there are plenty of possibilities, but this is one of only two I’ve ever found by MY definition that look like they could have been him.

To be clear, I do think this is somewhat more likely to be a Keyes case than either of the ones I mentioned upthread. Either way it’s a super weird one, but even more so if it wasn’t Keyes.