Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #4

[Charlot123]

Great question, I don't know why I thought it would be up!

Because earlier, we read about the "thud" heard from the Miyazawas house in the Iries' one and the explanation was, that it was most likely the retractable stairs being opened?

JMO - much as sounds may deceive us, the answer is of some pertinence. We don't know on what floor the iries slept, and where was the thud heard? On the second, or first floor? Coming from the loft?

 

[Lalalacasbah]

To our Japanese experts

How common would it be to sound proof a residence there? Was this a thing in those types of houses?

<modsnip: No link to an approved source for quoted material>

I understand this as my kids get loud and thump in my house (drives me crazy lol) so perhaps Mikio was worrried the children would disturb An/the grandmother with loud noise? Niina played piano IIRC? An's son was 13yrs at the time IIRC, was he social or have friends over as well? Would there be other noise that would cause "trouble" (loud music, loud voices?)

I thought a strange concern. I am not suspecting An or her family by any means... I have to admit I am curious the extended group a teenage boy might fraternize with and if any had military backgrounds.

If a disgruntled teen expressed hatred for some "bratty kids" to the wrong crowd, maybe something could have evolved... I am merely trying think of all ideas, so I hope that doesn't sound accusatory! JMO, MOO as always.

 

[Lalalacasbah]

Do you think it is possible that she went to An's house to brush up her English with some guests of international descent?

I don't want it to be misinterpreted - An was more than likely asked all these questions. But, she may have not paid attention to the situation if it was random. Could it be one of the cases when the person was in the house, seldom, but no one realized who it was? Statistically, it is not uncommon.

I am starting to veer slowly towards a possible connection through the extended family as well - only because of nitty gritty details I don't think a random stranger would know... Not them specifically but a 2nd or 3rd degree of association if that makes sense. Maybe some loose talk perhaps a younger, immature group got ear of.

Example: The Clutter family were killed because some wrong info (hearsay) was passed along from an previous farmhand to a cellmate. Cellmate was told Clutters had a safe full of cash, yet no safe ever existed. Cellmate hatched a plan that evolved into a horrific murder of entire family with his partner in crime.

I do not think money was motive for the Miyazawa's murders, but perhaps some false, exaggerated stories or feelings were building that got to the ears of the wrong person.

 

[Lalalacasbah]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed>

It seems like many crimes are through association or victims have a bizarre connection to their killer through a web of connection if even brief.

Scary thought actually. Usually someone off radar but linked somehow outside of the box. Maybe the case with the Miyazawas

 

[Mandala]

IMO this case motive is one of either:
A: A perp who had a grudge against either Yasuko or Mikio (there are many possible theories we could speculate). We don’t know enough about their lives to know if there were any issues going on with other people.
B: Someone wanted them out of that property so the land could be used.
C: A random attack by a person with a psychiatric illness.

It’s rare that a total stranger just randomly enters a house and violently kills a whole family. IMO it’s more likely to be A or B. But I haven’t delved too deeply into all the details of this case. My opinion is based on what I’ve read in this thread and a few news articles.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

IMO this case motive is one of either:
A: A perp who had a grudge against either Yasuko or Mikio (there are many possible theories we could speculate). We don’t know enough about their lives to know if there were any issues going on with other people.

RSMB: By this stage, the grudge would have to be based on something pretty minor or oblique for it to stay beyond the grasp of the TMPD for 24 years. It couldn't be something direct such as an affair, or owing a sum of money or some such that would elude them for all this time. While that is within the realms of possibility, I find it improbable.

B: Someone wanted them out of that property so the land could be used.

This one we can discount pretty much 100%. Mikio had already agreed to sell the land to the City. Anything you read about the Unification Church is utter BS. There was only one party buying up that land, Tokyo. And Mikio had already given them what they wanted. The land could not be used for anything else. To this day, it belongs to the City.

C: A random attack by a person with a psychiatric illness.

This is also a possibility but it's been 24 years and the TMPD have found no patients / escapees / offenders that match anyone with a psychiatric profile. We know that they have combed this idea deeply and got zero back. So, if the killer was suffering from a mental illness, it seems unlikely they were on any kind of radar (nor did he have any traces of medication or drugs in his system). But someone capable of slaughtering a whole family in the midsts of a mental break who then never re-offends or crops up anywhere ever? Again, for me, possible but unlikely.

It’s rare that a total stranger just randomly enters a house and violently kills a whole family. IMO it’s more likely to be A or B. But I haven’t delved too deeply into all the details of this case. My opinion is based on what I’ve read in this thread and a few news articles.

I agree with you about the rarity of the total stranger. Then again, rarity doesn't mean never. Respectfully, I'd suggest there is also a fourth motive. D: the killer chose the family specifically but for 'random' reasons. That is to say, his own emotional driver -- rage for example -- and he needed someone to take it out on. For whatever reason, he sees the Miyazawas and chooses them. So, in a way this is just a repackaged Motive A but instead of taking out that grudge against the source of his pain or fury, he takes it out on vulnerable people he feels he can get away with hurting. And, very sadly, so it proved. All JMO.

 

[dub]

IMO this case motive is one of either:
A: A perp who had a grudge against either Yasuko or Mikio (there are many possible theories we could speculate). We don’t know enough about their lives to know if there were any issues going on with other people.
B: Someone wanted them out of that property so the land could be used.
C: A random attack by a person with a psychiatric illness.

It’s rare that a total stranger just randomly enters a house and violently kills a whole family. IMO it’s more likely to be A or B. But I haven’t delved too deeply into all the details of this case. My opinion is based on what I’ve read in this thread and a few news articles.

The new info is causing me to rethink a lot of things about the case and about the killer, and one big one is that I now almost completely rule out your C: scenario.

Knowing now that the killer was able to kill Rei and Mikio silently enough to not alert anyone else, to me those aren’t the actions of someone in an acute psychiatric episode.

It’s possible that the person was not entirely mentally well, but I see no way that was the “motive” alone.

@FacelessPodcast ’s D: scenario makes a lot of sense, and it could be looked at, rather than as a “repackaged A:”, as a combination of A: and C:—motive A is minor (eta: and may or may not be directed at the Miyazawas themselves) but overblown into something homicidal due to an underlying condition that’s much less acute than a psychotic episode or something.


The rest of this case in light of the new info… I need to give it more thought.

 

[dub]

Sorting through some of my other thoughts…

I now find it even harder to believe that the window was the entry point. It seems now that the intent was a sneak attack rather than a blitz attack, and that bathroom is JUST around the corner of the line of Mikio’s sight.

If Mikio heard anything, he could easily be watching, or even up into the bathroom, by the time the killer made it into the room. (And I know there’s a possibility that the bathroom door was closed, but even then, the killer has to open the door with a decent chance that Mikio will be either looking or standing right there when he does so).


And a thing I’m having a lot of trouble with:

Under normal circumstances, Niina and Rei would have both been sleeping on the bunks, right? And the killer couldn’t have strangled both of them, and attacking both of them at the same time would have almost certainly drawn attention from Mikio and/or Yasuko.

So was strangling Rei a snap decision, the original plan WAS a blitz attack, and the killer just got lucky? Or ?????

This is an issue to me regardless of the entry point, but is a much bigger one if the window was used. Sneaking past the most obvious threat to the killer to silently kill one person is one thing, but planning on doing so to loudly kill two is an entirely different one.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Sorting through some of my other thoughts…

I now find it even harder to believe that the window was the entry point. It seems now that the intent was a sneak attack rather than a blitz attack, and that bathroom is JUST around the corner of the line of Mikio’s sight.

RSMB: I'm yet to watch the documentary, I've only seen images (A LOT) and spoken to various people who have seen it. To touch on your points, @dub, which I think are worth expanding on.

Bizarrely, while the TMPD have maintained ambivalence about the killer's access point for 24 years only to break silence and point to the bathroom window as BOTH his method of entry and egress, this documentary departs from that. They say he left through the front door. 1) This makes 20,000% more sense given the obvious logistics of egress through a small, high window with an injured hand and no obvious method of safe landing. 2) The footprints lead out to the front door. That front of the house was far darker and 'hidden away' than the rear of the house. Ignoring the path nearby out to the canal which would be pretty much totally hidden from public view, there is also a spot for parked cars. Either is a likely escape route, though Yasuko's complaints of an unknown car parking too close to the house have never been adequately explored imo, let alone resolved.

So, to return to your point, yes -- hard agree on the window being problematic, certainly for exit. For entry, I still have great issue with the difficulty and the noise. I don't think the programme dispels the possibility the killer's fibres were in the window frame because he got up into it to either look out or weigh up the drop but not actually exit through it in the end. This would explain the fibres, plus the cut out window screen. At any rate, as for the documentary shifting his possible motives. For sure I can see how it might change opinions. For me, it doesn't really. The one certainty is that he went there to kill. At least, imo. And that was the net result. Perhaps he intended on stealth or perhaps he simply benefited from the circumstances as he entered the house. We know he pivots when problems arise so he likely also does so when opportunity does. But as you say, a blitz attack seems highly unlikely.

And a thing I’m having a lot of trouble with:

Under normal circumstances, Niina and Rei would have both been sleeping on the bunks, right? And the killer couldn’t have strangled both of them, and attacking both of them at the same time would have almost certainly drawn attention from Mikio and/or Yasuko.

So was strangling Rei a snap decision, the original plan WAS a blitz attack, and the killer just got lucky? Or ?????

Perhaps he banked on being able to strangle both easily. Perhaps he had no idea of how long it actually takes to smother or choke something to death. Or, as you say, perhaps he simply got lucky. Quod est demonstrandum.

This is an issue to me regardless of the entry point, but is a much bigger one if the window was used. Sneaking past the most obvious threat to the killer to silently kill one person is one thing, but planning on doing so to loudly kill two is an entirely different one.

Either his plan was woefully inept and he got very, very lucky. Or he had watched the family and knew what he was working with once he got inside. Perhaps a little of column A and column B.

 

[dub]

Perhaps he banked on being able to strangle both easily. Perhaps he had no idea of how long it actually takes to smother or choke something to death. Or, as you say, perhaps he simply got lucky. Quod est demonstrandum.

RSBM

Maybe so, but—and this is kind of a separate thing I’ve been thinking about—he DID choke/smother Rei for long enough to kill him, despite the threat of being discovered in the process. Even that would be hard to sustain just based on the pressure of potential discovery, which makes me think he was aware of how this worked.

A separate thing I’ve been thinking: the idea of Mikio as the primary “threat” to the killer may be incorrect. I’m not sure of the exact nature of Rei’s vocalizations or how loud they were, but it’s possible, if they were very loud and the killer was aware of that due to familiarity, that he saw Rei as an equally big or bigger threat to the overall “plan”, whatever that was.

I used to think that Rei being killed first meant he was likely a primary target, which would make sense if the rest of it had been a blitz attack (possibly as a result of the killer being discovered). But it seems very clear now that the target was all of them and this is the best theory I have right now for why it was important to attack Rei before Mikio. It’s not a great theory haha but it’s the best I’ve got for now.


And I also have not yet watched the documentary, I’m just going by the pictures and resulting insights posted on here thus far.

 

[cenazoic]

in Japan it is called a loft and is designed as a bedroom.

. How would the killer know to check the attic for the females unless they knew the family used it for a bedroom? How did he even know that's where they were?

Does the killer’s apparent knowledge of the attic/loft as bedroom rather than ‘space for extra stuff’ tell us anything about his likely background, in the context of a native/Japanese killer vs one associated with an American military family?

 

[cenazoic]

This may seem like a random tangent, but I was recently reading Foreign Faction by James Kolar, who was the lead criminal investigator for the District Attorney’s Office in Colorado and was quite involved with the JonBenet Ramsey case for a time.

In it, he discusses that John Douglas (former FBI profiler, author of Mindhunter, etc) was hired at some point early on by the Ramsey family, and part of his profile of the likely killer was that they were ‘mission-oriented’, and as such, unlikely to have committed a similar crime before or since.

Spoiler alert for those of you unfamiliar with the JBR case: Kolar’s theory is that the crime was committed by Burke Ramsey, JBR’s 9-year old brother, and covered up by her parents.

Now, what does this have to do with the Miyazawa family? I’m not sure, really, except I was struck by this idea of the “mission-oriented” killer who likely never killed before their crime and likely never kills again. I immediately thought of the many discussions of the Miyazawa family’s killer, and how it might apply to him, and perhaps partially explain the some of the difficulty in identifying him.

In the context of the FBI/Behavioral Sciences Unit, ‘the mission-oriented’ designation is usually applied to serial killers whose murders focus on a particular group of people (ie, prostitutes, dark-haired women, etc), so I found Douglas’s application of it to the murder of a single 6-year old girl, with the addenda of ‘likely never killed before or after’) interesting.

Vaguely following this line of thought, I started wondering about ‘family annihilator’ -type killers who don’t kill their own family. This was surprisingly difficult to research. I was really only able to come up with the McStay family (killed by a business competitor), and the Clutter family (botched robbery). (There must be others!)

However neither of those cases, or their apparent motives, seem to apply to the Miyazawa family. So that, combined with the mission-oriented idea, leads me back at the speculation that the family was specifically targeted and known to the killer. I’m aware that the TMPD have apparently been unable to identify such a person during the succeeding decades, and that Nick does not believe this is likely either.

I just wonder. I know approximately zero percent about how the Japanese police work, but I wonder if, for lack of a better phrase, there is an element of ‘polite inquiry’ vs very aggressive interrogation tactics that may have allowed any theoretical ‘secrets’ to fall through the cracks.

All speculation, of course.

 

[dub]

Does the killer’s apparent knowledge of the attic/loft as bedroom rather than ‘space for extra stuff’ tell us anything about his likely background, in the context of a native/Japanese killer vs one associated with an American military family?

I don’t think it does, primarily because the ladder was down when he entered. If it had been up, maybe that would be a different story.

(I can’t say I have a strong opinion on the killers background either way)

 

[Lalalacasbah]

I'm catching up. Is it possible TMPD is toying with what they release to keep things to themselves only the killer would know?

Is it possible it looked like killer entered via window and maybe attempted to but then didn't?

So broken branches, footprints and screen would still be there if that was his original plan and if he tried but wasn't successful ie: did the climb, maybe couldn't get through or looked through and saw it would be noisy to abandoned that plan? MOO

*ETA: I see Faceless/Nic has mentioned this thought or similar idea for the exit via window. Sorry catching up!

 

[dub]

Vaguely following this line of thought, I started wondering about ‘family annihilator’ -type killers who don’t kill their own family. This was surprisingly difficult to research. I was really only able to come up with the McStay family (killed by a business competitor), and the Clutter family (botched robbery). (There must be others!)

However neither of those cases, or their apparent motives, seem to apply to the Miyazawa family. So that, combined with the mission-oriented idea, leads me back at the speculation that the family was specifically targeted and known to the killer. I’m aware that the TMPD have apparently been unable to identify such a person during the succeeding decades, and that Nick does not believe this is likely either.

This is another one that comes to mind (which I only remember because I lived in the area at the time):

Divided Supreme Court upholds death sentence for man who killed Kirkland family in 2006

I only bring it up as a case with a separate motive from the ones you mentioned - it's not totally clear what the motive even was, but it was speculated to maybe be covering up sexual assault - but if that's correct that also clearly doesn't seem to be the case in the Miyazawa murders.

Where it could have a parallel is (and the article doesn't state this, this is just my recollection): in that case I believe the killer lived VERY close by, but did not know the family except maybe in passing/seeing them around the neighborhood. I do think that is a possibility here.


For what it's worth, in the Miyazawa case I don't think the killer was "mission-oriented" based on my understanding of that term. But I do think it's likely that the family was known to him and specifically targeted. Was the reverse true too though - was he also known to the family? I think it's unlikely for the reason you stated above, but not out of the question.

 

[Lalalacasbah]

RSBM

Maybe so, but—and this is kind of a separate thing I’ve been thinking about—he DID choke/smother Rei for long enough to kill him, despite the threat of being discovered in the process. Even that would be hard to sustain just based on the pressure of potential discovery, which makes me think he was aware of how this worked.

A separate thing I’ve been thinking: the idea of Mikio as the primary “threat” to the killer may be incorrect. I’m not sure of the exact nature of Rei’s vocalizations or how loud they were, but it’s possible, if they were very loud and the killer was aware of that due to familiarity, that he saw Rei as an equally big or bigger threat to the overall “plan”, whatever that was.

I used to think that Rei being killed first meant he was likely a primary target, which would make sense if the rest of it had been a blitz attack (possibly as a result of the killer being discovered). But it seems very clear now that the target was all of them and this is the best theory I have right now for why it was important to attack Rei before Mikio. It’s not a great theory haha but it’s the best I’ve got for now.


And I also have not yet watched the documentary, I’m just going by the pictures and resulting insights posted on here thus far.

Good points. I am having similar thoughts, well a little bit:

1. Just how risky his choices were to easily get caught by entry/exit, leaving volumes of props behind, staying after, etc. (another reason I think not a stranger, seems to be confident familiarity/comfort)

2. Last night I had wondered briefly too if Rei "was to blame" or the root of anger... yes a knife attack is more vicious/gruesome but strangling is very personal and more a sense of power kill

But then I go back to Yasuko over and over. Of course they all are the targets in the end... I am open minded but still searching for any connections/catalysts because it's so frustrating and sad.

 

[dub]

I'm catching up. Is it possible TMPD is toying with what they release to keep things to themselves only the killer would know?

Is it possible it looked like killer entered via window and maybe attempted to but then didn't?

So broken branches, footprints and screen would still be there if that was his original plan and if he tried but wasn't successful ie: did the climb, maybe couldn't get through or looked through and saw it would be noisy to abandoned that plan? MOO

*ETA: I see Faceless/Nic has mentioned this thought or similar idea for the exit via window. Sorry catching up!

IF the window entry is correct (which I don't think it is) I've also been considering the reverse scenario: that the balcony was plan A and he actually went up there that night, but it was locked and he couldn't get in, so the window was the backup plan.

I don't know if it would even be possible to see the kids' beds from outside on the balcony, but this is the only way I can think of that the killer could enter the window and know in advance that Rei was on the bunk and Niina was not.

 

[Lalalacasbah]

This is another one that comes to mind (which I only remember because I lived in the area at the time):

Divided Supreme Court upholds death sentence for man who killed Kirkland family in 2006

I only bring it up as a case with a separate motive from the ones you mentioned - it's not totally clear what the motive even was, but it was speculated to maybe be covering up sexual assault - but if that's correct that also clearly doesn't seem to be the case in the Miyazawa murders.

Where it could have a parallel is (and the article doesn't state this, this is just my recollection): in that case I believe the killer lived VERY close by, but did not know the family except maybe in passing/seeing them around the neighborhood. I do think that is a possibility here.


For what it's worth, in the Miyazawa case I don't think the killer was "mission-oriented" based on my understanding of that term. But I do think it's likely that the family was known to him and specifically targeted. Was the reverse true too though - was he also known to the family? I think it's unlikely for the reason you stated above, but not out of the question.

How sad! I have seen cases where really young children are killed because of collateral damage here in Canada to eliminate witnesses when killer SA's the mother and/or murders adults when child is present, home, sleeping etc.

I am also shocked how many murders happen (I think in US more) with neighbors! I feel like so many headlines it's a neighborhood dispute over something sometimes quite petty. I agree, I think the killer here was very close by.

The mission orientated term is intriguing, especially if a military background. Killer possibly felt on a mission. I still think the clothes were props and purchased for the murder, along with everything else he brought.

I also think this was his one and only crime and saw the target/family and a problem that had to be eliminated. Once eliminated then he is fine. All MOO, JMO!

 

[Lalalacasbah]

Was Mikio known to wear headphones while on the computer? Listening to music or anything and to not wake anyone?

I feel TMPD would disclose this, but it sounds like they are keeping many details private as they should.

 

[dub]

The mission orientated term is intriguing, especially if a military background. Killer possibly felt on a mission. I still think the clothes were props and purchased for the murder, along with everything else he brought.

I also think this was his one and only crime and saw the target/family and a problem that had to be eliminated. Once eliminated then he is fine. All MOO, JMO!

RSBM I considered this prior to the new info, but now I don't think so. Rather than the family murders listed above, this now feels more to me like the Idaho murders, and I do not think this would have been a one-off for him by his own choice.

Where I'm at right now is if the killer was American, he probably did commit additional murders that were very different than this one back in the US, and if he was Japanese or Korean he probably died not too long after the murders (possibly by suicide, possibly not).

I'm not totally sure why I'm thinking that now (I think the fact that it was a sneak attack rather than a blitz attack makes me think of it as much more calculated?) but either way it's kind of a snap judgment as I process the updated info and I'm open to changing my perspective on it for sure.

Another random snap thought I had re: the calculated nature of the crime, this does not seem like a teenager to me. This feels like someone in their early-mid 20s.