Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #4

  • #521
Could anybody more familiar comment on the content of this article?

It is in Japanese but what it says is that the killer’s Y-STR chromosome was DNA tested in an attempt to find a match to a distant relative, as it’s passed down from father to son. According to the article the probability of finding a match amongst Japanese males is 1 in 1,000. However it says that the killer’s has been tested against over 2,000 samples in Japan and no match has been found. It then insinuates that due to this the likelihood of the killer being Japanese has been lowered again.

I am not knowledgeable on this topic at all but can explain what the article itself says. Is there anyone that can shed more insight on this?

But the truth is, specifically because the Y chromosome is handed over from father to son and mutates slowly, it is not a reliable way to determine current ancestry. Some Ys may be of the haplotype coming from the Mongol invasion, but it won’t tell us anything about the current ethnicity of the owner.

In fact, it is autosomal DNA that is used for the determination of current ethnicity. Then, of course, non-paternity events happen in 1-3%, depending on the population or ethnicity, so the correlation of a certain Y to the family name is somewhat relative.

The DNA companies like the Parabon mentioned in the article use whole genome, definitely not Y alone. Big Y, a more in-depth test, uses STRs and SNPs. Sometimes when you do in-depth Y tests, you “lose” matches. Anyhow, they can’t rely on Y alone.

The fact that they didn’t find matches among 2000 people means nothing, either way. If they find a match among the Koreans, it will be just the beginning because deeper Big Y study may show that it is still not the same family.

But, great that they are considering all these things.

Somewhere in the world, there still may be living a person who killed two adults and two children on that fateful night. I don’t care what country he was from. He needs to be found, for justice and for protection of the general public.
 
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  • #522
I can, to some degree. Only men get the Y chromosome; women do not have one. This means, like you stated, it is passed down from male to male only. In forensic investigative genetic genealogy, a Y match helps to identify a perpetrator of a crime or unidentified human remains. Getting a match on the Y chromosome, even a distant match seriously narrows that line of searching, as it includes only male relatives.

The thing is that FIGG compares to reference testers - those who have uploaded their DNA profile to GEDmatch or FamilytreeDNA, for example. I do not think this is a common practice in Japan, so there would be few profiles to which to compare. For comparison, GEDmatch has over 2 million individual DNA profiles in their system. That they checked against 2,000 samples in Japan is virtually nothing. Especially if the guy could be American, they really need to SNP test and do forensic investigative genetic genealogy. It’s just that it against Japan’s laws, apparently.
Thank you for such a great insight.

After searching a bit this article claims as of last year there were 1.75 million DNA profiles in the Japanese NPA’s DNA database. Of those it doesn’t seem to mention anywhere how large the pool is of Y-STR profiles to match against, but the figure of 1 in 1,000 being a match must come from somewhere. I’ll look more into that and it’s a great opportunity for myself to learn more too.

As a side note it also mentions it has 11.66 million fingerprints too as well as 12.59 million facial photos registered in the database.
 
  • #523
But the truth is, specifically because the Y chromosome is handed over from father to son and mutates slowly, it is not a reliable way to determine current ancestry. Some Ys may be of the haplotype coming from the Mongol invasion, but it won’t tell us anything about the current ethnicity of the owner.

In fact, it is autosomal DNA that is used for the determination of current ethnicity. Then, of course, non-paternity events happen in 1-3%, depending on the population or ethnicity, so the correlation of a certain Y to the family name is somewhat relative.

The DNA companies like the Parabon mentioned in the article use whole genome, definitely not Y alone. Big Y, a more in-depth test, uses STRs and SNPs. Sometimes when you do in-depth Y tests, you “lose” matches. Anyhow, they can’t rely on Y alone.

The fact that they didn’t find matches among 2000 people means nothing, either way. If they find a match among the Koreans, it will be just the beginning because deeper Big Y study may show that it is still not the same family.

But, great that they are considering all these things.

Somewhere in the world, there still may be living a person who killed two adults and two children on that fateful night. I don’t care what country he was from. He needs to be found, for justice and for protection of the general public.
The Y match would be a piece of the puzzle though. If they did SNP testing, that is what would be used for tracing current (recent generations) lineage. I don’t believe they do that in Japan, due to regulations. However, if the perpetrator were American, which is one working theory, that could lead to finding him. With respect to the Koreans, I am not so sure they do DTC (direct to consumer) testing either. It is possible they also do not have a robust database from which to glean leads. Either way, for the type of research I am suggesting, it can’t be just the Y alone, like you stated.
 
  • #524
Thank you for such a great insight.

After searching a bit this article claims as of last year there were 1.75 million DNA profiles in the Japanese NPA’s DNA database. Of those it doesn’t seem to mention anywhere how large the pool is of Y-STR profiles to match against, but the figure of 1 in 1,000 being a match must come from somewhere. I’ll look more into that and it’s a great opportunity for myself to learn more too.

As a side note it also mentions it has 11.66 million fingerprints too as well as 12.59 million facial photos registered in the database.
But from whom are the 1.75 million DNA profiles? I suppose they are not all criminals. Also, with what method are they comparing them? In other words I think they are saying the DNA doesn’t match, as none of those 1.75 million are the perpetrator. But what if someone in there was distantly related to the perpetrator? That is what I want to see done. I will have to go down the rabbit hole as to what Japan and Korea have for databases. I can’t attm because I am running late for my FIGG class.
 
  • #525
I have been consumed with this case since first seeing it on WS a few weeks back. I listened to all the Faceless podcast episodes (awesome job, Nic!) and am almost done reading thread #2 on here.

I have been keeping a running list of thoughts, questions, and claims made in different sources that I would like to verify if possible.

I still have a lot to review, but I wanted to share some of the inklings I have about this suspect.

I believe that this perpetrator is likely far closer to home than many realize. I get a clear indication that the motive was psychological, for the "thrill", simply because he could. I think there is definitely a level of potential "mommy issues" influencing this killer... but if that specifically contributed to the motive, I feel it is likely some type of perceived conflict by the killer, and not something the family would have likely even been aware of. It seems like committing the murders allowed him to scratch the itch, so to speak. He was able to relax and eat and hang out for hours afterwards. The average person would not be able to stay in a home surrounded by dead, mutilated, bloodied bodies and be able to eat or nap.

I believe this suspect would be a highly intelligent, potentially a loner-type of older teenager that lived at home with at least some type of female caregiver. And I feel certain that a family member (mom, grandma) would have had their suspicions for years following these killings. Especially if involved in the precursory behaviors such as harming animals. He is likely "culturally Japanese", as another web sleuther put it, and I believe the instinct to save face by the family would be strong.

His overall level of confidence is astounding. Although he doubted his ability to take on all family members at once, he had no doubt in his ability to methodically kill each one. Even after the brutal fight with the father, he felt confident enough to go up into the attic and kill two family members simultaneously. Clearly he had stamina and was in good shape. This ALSO makes me think that this is a suspect who has told someone, maybe to scare them, but definitely out of pride/superiority complex.

I feel confident that this was not a one-time thing for this killer. I think it is possible that there is some military connection (perhaps a father) that has helped to shield his identity. The fact that he was out and unaccounted for during New Year's Eve in Japan makes me feel lessso that he was native Japanese.

I think that it would be beneficial to look up other international cases that took place somewhat near to air force bases and involved the killings of multiple household members without clear evidence of a robbery motive or something along these lines.

I will get back to reading!
 
  • #526
I can, to some degree. Only men get the Y chromosome; women do not have one. This means, like you stated, it is passed down from male to male only. In forensic investigative genetic genealogy, a Y match helps to identify a perpetrator of a crime or unidentified human remains. Getting a match on the Y chromosome, even a distant match seriously narrows that line of searching, as it includes only male relatives.

The thing is that FIGG compares to reference testers - those who have uploaded their DNA profile to GEDmatch or FamilytreeDNA, for example. I do not think this is a common practice in Japan, so there would be few profiles to which to compare. For comparison, GEDmatch has over 2 million individual DNA profiles in their system. That they checked against 2,000 samples in Japan is virtually nothing. Especially if the guy could be American, they really need to SNP test and do forensic investigative genetic genealogy. It’s just that it against Japan’s laws, apparently.
So there's absolutely no chance of them sending it to the Othram lab or Parabon or whoever and possibly getting a hit if the killer is indeed American? I'm sure many Japanese people would be in favor of that. They must be really strict with this kind of stuff. Which makes me wonder why their aren't more big cold cases out of Japan if their Forensic DNA processing powers are extremely limited. The only other big ones that have come up for me are Namiko Takaba and Junko Kobayashi, although Takaba killer was caught recently.
 
  • #527
So there's absolutely no chance of them sending it to the Othram lab or Parabon or whoever and possibly getting a hit if the killer is indeed American? I'm sure many Japanese people would be in favor of that. They must be really strict with this kind of stuff. Which makes me wonder why their aren't more big cold cases out of Japan if their Forensic DNA processing powers are extremely limited. The only other big ones that have come up for me are Namiko Takaba and Junko Kobayashi, although Takaba killer was caught recently.
Unfortunately, here in Japan there are a lot of misconceptions about the DNA usage because of privacy concerns (Japanese are fixated about privacy) and many people don't really understand the simple notion that DNA is very accurate and would only be used for criminal cases. The political class has also never really addressed this and to my eyes it also reflects what the general population thinks.

The Sora no Kai has tried several times through the years to change this but it looks like we are still a long way to go.

On the other hand, I am pretty sure that the Japanese police (and the law enforcement as a whole) wish for these DNA laws to be changed.

Ex detective Tsuchida-san of this Miyazawa case is a prime example of this and has advocated for these changes since forever.
 
  • #528
The Y match would be a piece of the puzzle though. If they did SNP testing, that is what would be used for tracing current (recent generations) lineage. I don’t believe they do that in Japan, due to regulations. However, if the perpetrator were American, which is one working theory, that could lead to finding him. With respect to the Koreans, I am not so sure they do DTC (direct to consumer) testing either. It is possible they also do not have a robust database from which to glean leads. Either way, for the type of research I am suggesting, it can’t be just the Y alone, like you stated.

Here is the list of major DNA testing companies

I am interested in WeGene catering to East Asian market but we probably have to first compare the size of the bases
 
  • #529
I have been consumed with this case since first seeing it on WS a few weeks back. I listened to all the Faceless podcast episodes (awesome job, Nic!) and am almost done reading thread #2 on here.

I have been keeping a running list of thoughts, questions, and claims made in different sources that I would like to verify if possible.

I still have a lot to review, but I wanted to share some of the inklings I have about this suspect.

I believe that this perpetrator is likely far closer to home than many realize. I get a clear indication that the motive was psychological, for the "thrill", simply because he could. I think there is definitely a level of potential "mommy issues" influencing this killer... but if that specifically contributed to the motive, I feel it is likely some type of perceived conflict by the killer, and not something the family would have likely even been aware of. It seems like committing the murders allowed him to scratch the itch, so to speak. He was able to relax and eat and hang out for hours afterwards. The average person would not be able to stay in a home surrounded by dead, mutilated, bloodied bodies and be able to eat or nap.

I believe this suspect would be a highly intelligent, potentially a loner-type of older teenager that lived at home with at least some type of female caregiver. And I feel certain that a family member (mom, grandma) would have had their suspicions for years following these killings. Especially if involved in the precursory behaviors such as harming animals. He is likely "culturally Japanese", as another web sleuther put it, and I believe the instinct to save face by the family would be strong.

His overall level of confidence is astounding. Although he doubted his ability to take on all family members at once, he had no doubt in his ability to methodically kill each one. Even after the brutal fight with the father, he felt confident enough to go up into the attic and kill two family members simultaneously. Clearly he had stamina and was in good shape. This ALSO makes me think that this is a suspect who has told someone, maybe to scare them, but definitely out of pride/superiority complex.

I feel confident that this was not a one-time thing for this killer. I think it is possible that there is some military connection (perhaps a father) that has helped to shield his identity. The fact that he was out and unaccounted for during New Year's Eve in Japan makes me feel lessso that he was native Japanese.

I think that it would be beneficial to look up other international cases that took place somewhat near to air force bases and involved the killings of multiple household members without clear evidence of a robbery motive or something along these lines.

I will get back to reading!
Very interesting profile you've given!

I'm one of the few on this thread (I think) who still thinks that Yasuko was a trigger/target/rage focus (well the females in general, but she got the worse I believe) whatever you want to call it and you mention "mommy issues" which is an angle I didn't think of.

For some reason I still can't wrap my head around a thrill kill, but you may be right. I still feel an interaction or brief meeting in real life somewhere (more with Yasuko whether she was alone, with friends/family, work/teaching orientated, etc.) started the killer to fixate, obsess and build up the fantasy and compulsion to act and kill them. But that's just my own theory I keep coming back to.

I am definitely curious if there's any other crimes near air force bases like you mentioned. Will have to try to sleuth that out on Google when I have time lol...

I hope you keep posting, it's interesting to hear all the different thoughts and ideas on this case. I know the consensus is one main idea but I still like to hear others.
 
  • #530
Very interesting profile you've given!

I'm one of the few on this thread (I think) who still thinks that Yasuko was a trigger/target/rage focus (well the females in general, but she got the worse I believe) whatever you want to call it and you mention "mommy issues" which is an angle I didn't think of.

For some reason I still can't wrap my head around a thrill kill, but you may be right. I still feel an interaction or brief meeting in real life somewhere (more with Yasuko whether she was alone, with friends/family, work/teaching orientated, etc.) started the killer to fixate, obsess and build up the fantasy and compulsion to act and kill them. But that's just my own theory I keep coming back to.

I am definitely curious if there's any other crimes near air force bases like you mentioned. Will have to try to sleuth that out on Google when I have time lol...

I hope you keep posting, it's interesting to hear all the different thoughts and ideas on this case. I know the consensus is one main idea but I still like to hear others.
Thanks! I also love to hear others' opinions
 
  • #531
I saw theory about an automobile connection, I hope okay to share as it sparked an idea/thought to me as well (but likely going out on a limb as it does seem far fetched but still an interesting connection):

It was a big thing in Japan for car manufacturing in the 90s and early 2000s and Japanese manufacturers have proving grounds in the deserts of California (and Arizona it seems), particularly Honda which is close to Edwards Air Force Base that opened in 1990 (40 minute drive). It was wondered if there was any connection to cars or racing.

Yasuko's sister's husband Hiroyuki worked for a big automobile company and their family was overseas a lot sounds like.... I wonder if there was someone connected to him and his line of work? Maybe even mistaken identity with them living next door? Did they think the Miyazawa's were his family and have wrong address/house?

Logistically is doesn't add up though. If a disgruntled, resentful worker/coworker/colleague for Yasuko's sister's husband worked at the California location - doesn't make sense they'd be in Japan same time as him.

Thought to share anyways... JMO MOO

 
  • #532
The Y match would be a piece of the puzzle though. If they did SNP testing, that is what would be used for tracing current (recent generations) lineage. I don’t believe they do that in Japan, due to regulations. However, if the perpetrator were American, which is one working theory, that could lead to finding him. With respect to the Koreans, I am not so sure they do DTC (direct to consumer) testing either. It is possible they also do not have a robust database from which to glean leads. Either way, for the type of research I am suggesting, it can’t be just the Y alone, like you stated.

From what I understand, Japanese laws allow to do 1:1 DNA comparison (that is, if they have a suspect, compare his DNA to that of the killer). They don’t allow investigative genealogy, using “one-to-many” comparisons.

However, I don’t know why privacy laws should limit “one-to-itself” investigation.

They don’t! In the case of Namiko Takaba’s murder, they analyzed the blood of the killer to determine that it was a woman of type B blood.

Any “one-to-itself” investigation is exactly the same.

Try to do phenotype reconstruction. Or, if it is considered too new, run genetic testing for carriers of certain conditions. They can tell you if the person is “a sprinter”, or “a long distance runner”, the type of muscles the person may have, and yes, ethnicity. It is no different from “a woman with type B group” at all. It is a description.

Now, ethnicity in Asians may not be as precise as in Brits (with Brits, they can tell you the county the person’s ancestors lived in). But, Asian comparison groups are as representative as any other used in commercial testing.

I don’t know how comparing the murderer’s DNA against itself could be violation of the murderer’s privacy. BTW, blood type they can announce as well.

One of older analyzers, now closed, DNA land, could predict what would be potential educational achievement of the owner. It is not IQ but in the same realm. It does not always correlate with the real achievement, but even this question, is the perpetrator smart, I do not know the answer to. (I personally wonder if he may have some dissociative-type condition, so, not too sure that he appears smart), but all these questions potentially can be answered.
 
  • #533
I have been consumed with this case since first seeing it on WS a few weeks back. I listened to all the Faceless podcast episodes (awesome job, Nic!) and am almost done reading thread #2 on here.

I have been keeping a running list of thoughts, questions, and claims made in different sources that I would like to verify if possible.

I still have a lot to review, but I wanted to share some of the inklings I have about this suspect.

I believe that this perpetrator is likely far closer to home than many realize. I get a clear indication that the motive was psychological, for the "thrill", simply because he could. I think there is definitely a level of potential "mommy issues" influencing this killer... but if that specifically contributed to the motive, I feel it is likely some type of perceived conflict by the killer, and not something the family would have likely even been aware of. It seems like committing the murders allowed him to scratch the itch, so to speak. He was able to relax and eat and hang out for hours afterwards. The average person would not be able to stay in a home surrounded by dead, mutilated, bloodied bodies and be able to eat or nap.

I believe this suspect would be a highly intelligent, potentially a loner-type of older teenager that lived at home with at least some type of female caregiver. And I feel certain that a family member (mom, grandma) would have had their suspicions for years following these killings. Especially if involved in the precursory behaviors such as harming animals. He is likely "culturally Japanese", as another web sleuther put it, and I believe the instinct to save face by the family would be strong.

His overall level of confidence is astounding. Although he doubted his ability to take on all family members at once, he had no doubt in his ability to methodically kill each one. Even after the brutal fight with the father, he felt confident enough to go up into the attic and kill two family members simultaneously. Clearly he had stamina and was in good shape. This ALSO makes me think that this is a suspect who has told someone, maybe to scare them, but definitely out of pride/superiority complex.

I feel confident that this was not a one-time thing for this killer. I think it is possible that there is some military connection (perhaps a father) that has helped to shield his identity. The fact that he was out and unaccounted for during New Year's Eve in Japan makes me feel lessso that he was native Japanese.

I think that it would be beneficial to look up other international cases that took place somewhat near to air force bases and involved the killings of multiple household members without clear evidence of a robbery motive or something along these lines.

I will get back to reading!


I have a question.

I think that indeed, he is a hedonistic-killer type, but I have read, in conjunction with a local “cat killer”, that such murders - of soft, kind animals - would be the precursor to killing women. But in this case, I am thinking of Rei as a small, soft subject, and an expected move from a “precursory behavior” that you have mentioned.

What I can’t understand is whether the observation of mutilated/dead animals in the Soshigaya park is real. The police has ruled out conversations on “pet-hating boards”, it seems, but what about stories about mutilated cats around the house? Were there dead animals around? Because if there was such an incidence, at least once, then the chain I see is: the feathers and guano of birds in his bag (probably smothering the birds) ——> cats in the park ——-> Rei. The rest of the family is different, and maybe the anger has to do with him being “interrupted” by Mikio?

I can’t tell who he is, no clue about the base. I do think there should be a mother/grandmother in the picture; I have an intuitive feeling of how he comes across. Not the traits, but the general impression. And, I, too, feel that he is a loner, but of a quiet and typical sort, so if he is walking down the river, no one would get scared, but he is the one to carry a half-alive bird in his bag and none the wiser. JMO.

Did he tell anyone about it? You think he did. MOO, if he is smart - then, no. But he is the type to hint at “urges” or say things to girls implying autoerotic play. Such stuff. So people are left scared and somewhat confused, but hoping it was a joke, you know? I am sure that his family has heard something, but hopes these are his strange jokes, because he makes them, too. JMO.
 
  • #534
I believe the cat killings around the park were found to be committed by some regular office worker and unrelated to the family murders. The police did catch him and the killings did happen.
 
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  • #535
I saw theory about an automobile connection, I hope okay to share as it sparked an idea/thought to me as well (but likely going out on a limb as it does seem far fetched but still an interesting connection):

It was a big thing in Japan for car manufacturing in the 90s and early 2000s and Japanese manufacturers have proving grounds in the deserts of California (and Arizona it seems), particularly Honda which is close to Edwards Air Force Base that opened in 1990 (40 minute drive). It was wondered if there was any connection to cars or racing.

Yasuko's sister's husband Hiroyuki worked for a big automobile company and their family was overseas a lot sounds like.... I wonder if there was someone connected to him and his line of work? Maybe even mistaken identity with them living next door? Did they think the Miyazawa's were his family and have wrong address/house?

Logistically is doesn't add up though. If a disgruntled, resentful worker/coworker/colleague for Yasuko's sister's husband worked at the California location - doesn't make sense they'd be in Japan same time as him.

Thought to share anyways... JMO MOO

Unsure on this one. The houses were connected and shared a wall but there was a clear distinction between the two from the way they are built, plus different name plates on the doors. But just looking on from an outside perspective at a glance it is possible to assume it’s one big house I suppose.

I remember from An’s book she said that although she and her son returned from the UK in April 2000 her husband didn’t until less than a week before the murders occurred. They had been away for around 8 years at that point. If it were anything related to the husband I’m not sure the window of time would be big enough for an overseas disgruntled coworker to act on him and his family by the 30th. JMO.
 
  • #536
From what I understand, Japanese laws allow to do 1:1 DNA comparison (that is, if they have a suspect, compare his DNA to that of the killer). They don’t allow investigative genealogy, using “one-to-many” comparisons.

However, I don’t know why privacy laws should limit “one-to-itself” investigation.

They don’t! In the case of Namiko Takaba’s murder, they analyzed the blood of the killer to determine that it was a woman of type B blood.

Any “one-to-itself” investigation is exactly the same.
RSBM: There is no law stipulating that DNA can only be used 1:1 suspect comparison to existing offender database. The point is that there is no existing legal framework for expanded use of DNA in LE investigations. This has meant, in practice, that the 1:1 is essentially all that they focus on when the suspect is unknown.

Given the vast powers already afforded to LE in Japan along with some very public scandals, there seems to be little rush for them to be given more.

And as for the cat killings, this was indeed real. (They were actually poisonings, I believe). They arrested a local bank employee. He protested his innocence but the cats stopped turning up dead after that.
 
  • #537
RSBM: There is no law stipulating that DNA can only be used 1:1 suspect comparison to existing offender database. The point is that there is no existing legal framework for expanded use of DNA in LE investigations. This has meant, in practice, that the 1:1 is essentially all that they focus on when the suspect is unknown.

Given the vast powers already afforded to LE in Japan along with some very public scandals, there seems to be little rush for them to be given more.

And as for the cat killings, this was indeed real. (They were actually poisonings, I believe). They arrested a local bank employee. He protested his innocence but the cats stopped turning up dead after that.

Thank you!

I hope they at least collected the bank employee’s DNA and ran it against the killer’s one to rule that possible pet-hating guy out in Miyazawa’s case.
 
  • #538
I believe the cat killings around the park were found to be committed by some regular office worker and unrelated to the family murders. The police did catch him and the killings did happen.

If I understand correctly, the cat killings were investigated only after Setagaya’s murders, or am I wrong?

My question is: in the time span between the Miyazawa’s murders and the time the police arrested the post office worker involved with cats, were there any additional cat murders in the park? Or did they stop, essentially, with the Miyazawa’s murders? Or were there additional pet killings between the Miyazawa’s murders and the time the P.O. worker was arrested?

Also, was he a P.O. worker or a bank worker, as @FacelessPodcast has said?

Both versions can have professional connections with the Miyazawas, of a different type. The bank worker could assume that there was money in the house if the money was withdrawn from Mikio’s account pre-New Year, for example. This knowledge itself could be a motive for the house invasion.

Another, one, the postal worker, may be an even more complex figure.

I always remembered the mailman who drove (biked?) past the Miyazawa’s house early in the morning after the murders and reported seeing no light in the house. That mailman is a witness. However, I used to think that he was also one of the few people admitting to having been next to the house that morning. (Who knows where he was at night?).

Also, given that it was the New Year, the post office could have hired additional people for the season. So any p.o. worker nearby would be potentially of interest in the connection to the murders. If one of them was previously coming to Soshigaya park (and suspected of poisoning cats), then both his DNA and his kids’ DNAs need to be checked against the one in the house. JMO.
 
  • #539
I read about the Japanese post offices’ work before the New Year. They do hire seasonal workers, including students, for the season. I think that the age cutoff point might be 16, but not sure as it was a while ago that I checked.

By the same token, New Year seems to drive the market in Japan, definitely more so than Christmas, although I was left with the feeling that at the whole end of December, shopping is active in the country.

Mail notwithstanding, is there a chance that hiring additional temporary workers would be typical for other places in the end of December? This could be the time to apply for temporary work for college students or higher schoolkids, too? The schools close for the NY.

Here: https://web-japan.org/kidsweb/explore/schools/q4.html

The answer is, school break is from December 26 to January 6th.

Now, from what I understand, schoolkids don’t usually work (because parents supply with the money), but college kids do, including international ones with student visas. 67% do now.

And, Japan hires temp workers around the New Year, especially around hospitality, retail, tourism, shrines and temples, and winter resorts.

So, now per AI “ “In Japan, the general minimum age to work is 15, but they must have completed their first March 31st after turning 15. However, even younger children (13 and 14) can work in non-industrial jobs with special permission from the government. For adults, the minimum age is generally 18, and some visas, like the working holiday visa, have a minimum age of 18”.

International college students have to apply for work permit, but usually, it is up to 28 hours/week that they can work.

So I still think that the person is not in a 40-year-old group. JMO. My guess is, his age group is 15-22, and in 2000 he was strong and lean. I have no idea about his ethnicity but he “fits in” by looks and there is nothing special about him either way (neither “cute” nor, as some witnesses described, “ugly”. I assume that because of the winter he looked rather pale as in “not tanned” way and JMO, had slight bags/puffs under the eyes, but it is my fantasy).

My question is, has the police looked through the group of temporary workers, potentially high schoolers or college students that were probably hired in the Setagaya area during December 26-January 6th? This is the group that might be movable, have the reason to disappear after January 6th (just move to another island in Japan or leave the country if they were college students or had temporary holiday work visa).

If the murderer was from that group, he could have chosen the hiring place because his grandparents lived nearby, for example. So, he had the place to stay. (Or, think of that college across the park.) The person was not homeless or vagrant.

Sometimes I wonder if “comfort food” indicates “a grandmother” rather than a mother (grand mom used to get a kid for the holidays and just repeats the same meal plan with the grown kid).

In short, the killer had a perfectly legal reason to be in the neighborhood that night (“working”) but knew that he would move away soon because the work was temporary, and did not plan to ever apply in Setagaya again.

In short, the person definitely has some connection to Japan and can be ethnically Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Eurasian or a mix but probably Asian more than 50%. Pure Eurasians are considered attractive everywhere, and he flew under the radars, so, must look average. His grandparents or close relatives lived in the neighborhood. He had visited them many times so he speaks Japanese well (or has some bilingualism issues but not noticeable on the street). He probably has more problems with reading/writing in Japanese. It is not that difficult to raise a bilingual kid in any part of the world; in my mother tongue, the commas would be a giveaway, so I assume that in Japanese, too, the problem would be with some written part. But, he did speak Japanese well in 2000. And, he was either a student or applied as a temporary worker around NY or both but lives somewhere else now - can be US because of the sand or can be annywhere else. I always think of the sand being put into squishy toys, too, before stim-toys became “in”. But one of the reasons he never popped up on the radar is that he simply lives in another part of the country or he is not visiting his grandma or never reapplied for the seasonal job in the country.

Is that a possibility?
 
  • #540
I don't know how common this belief is among people very familiar with this case, but from what I have seen so far, I do not believe that the sand actually came from Edwards AFB. When we're talking about bullet or blood evidence, that's one thing, but soil/sand is completely another. I'm far from familiar with anything related to sand forensics, but given the obviously quite vast amount of it out there, I would need to see an extremely detailed breakdown of how they know the sand came exactly from there, and, even more importantly, how they know it could not have come from anywhere else. It just doesn't seem possible to me; this is not something like ballistics where the process for tracing it is relatively straightforward because there's a much more limited number of possibilities and you can trace a casing or whatever to just one weapon. I still think it is certainly possible given that they were able to match it to the sand at that base, but that is far from enough to say with certainty that it is from there and could not have been from anywhere else in the world.
 

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