Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000

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No, I think he likely arrived on a bicycle or by car.
In regards to the car possibility, what is the rate of car ownership in Tokyo?

For example, significant numbers of people in NYC do not have cars- or even driver licenses. This is especially so in Manhattan. But, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, Bronx still very likely have a majority of the people not having a car.

By extension, carless families and individuals are still fairly common in NYCs immediate suburbs in in New Jersey and and New York as some find it just not worth the hassle and parking costs.
 
In regards to the car possibility, what is the rate of car ownership in Tokyo?

For example, significant numbers of people in NYC do not have cars- or even driver licenses. This is especially so in Manhattan. But, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, Bronx still very likely have a majority of the people not having a car.

By extension, carless families and individuals are still fairly common in NYCs immediate suburbs in in New Jersey and and New York as some find it just not worth the hassle and parking costs.
1.06 cars per household according to google. I assume this is way below what it is in the US, or the UK etc. However, where I think this might be most relevant is when talking about:

1) someone travelling a mid-distance, 30-50 minutes.
2) late at night, potentially beyond the public transport window.
3) American driver, connected to the nearby military base.

From discussions with family dependants on that base, car ownership was extremely common.
 
Also, a lot of folks have asked about the message board user who ‘predicted’ the death of the family a few days before the 30th. The Chief categorically discounted this but I’m posting a few screenshots below for interest.
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Also, a lot of folks have asked about the message board user who ‘predicted’ the death of the family a few days before the 30th. The Chief categorically discounted this but I’m posting a few screenshots below for interest.
View attachment 469458View attachment 469459View attachment 469460
The formatting on the last message is a mess so this is the text:

“170: Mr. Kuromutsu: 12/27/2000 (Wed) 17:03

I’ve been stabbing a mouse since I was a 3-year-old kid, or gave it to a crow, and I'm still doing this even now when I'm 13 years old. I learned to kill dogs at the same time when I was 7 years old. I vividly remember that I didn't hesitate to kill him first. It was a slightly bigger dog with a body length of about 60 cm that suddenly bit me. When I kicked it once, it still bit me, so I continued to kick the dog's stomach. I don't remember how many kicks I kicked. When he died, the dog had a lot of blood from his mouth, and his internal organs were eating a little from his belly. Of course, I still do this when I see a stray dog. Now the kicking power has doubled, and I don't even hesitate to tear it apart with my hands. It smells bad, but I don't care about that. I sometimes do the same thing to cats. Wrap the cat around with a bandage including the face, cut off the internal organs, take them out, and throw them on the road. Then the crow will swallow and take it away, or it will be pulled by a car and it will be an even more tragic scene. But that's also a pleasure. I even made a bet with my friends on which result to roll into. Recently, I also think that I want to see the internal organs by cutting through humans. As the boy who was suspected in the video store bombing in Kabukicho stated. Now, when I see the happy family next door, I want to make it like that Oita family murder case. The final date is 11:59 p.m. on December 31. I'm thinking about killing him before the 21st century comes.“
 
Speculation, imo, fwiw..
LE wondered (article below), if the perp was economically disadvantaged which possibly led to homicidal rage, could it be that he thinks he is 'disadvantaged' as far as family goes, feelings heightened after Xmas ?

Maybe he has no family, or a broken one and he watches the 'perfect family' of a husband, wife, and one boy and a girl, living in a nice (and conveniently & relatively isolated) home on the river?

It is as if he wanted the very lives of the family whose lives he took- eating their food, touching & meddling with their items, sleeping on the couch- he essentially 'absorbed' the family and ''expelled'' them, without flushing..
Satiated, he can now 'shed' his own persona, by leaving his possessions behind?

2022 rbbm
1703167619142.png

The houses of the Miyazawa family (on right) and Mikio's mother Setsuko, as they appeared in December 2020. Police have continued to patrol the neighborhood, perhaps in expectation the killer might return to the scene of the crime. Photo: M Lupescu

''The killer was believed to have entered through the upstairs bathroom window. After strangling Rei in his bed, police determined he used a fish knife he had brought with him to stab the other three family members to death.

Rather than flee under cover of darkness, the killer then inexplicably lingered at the crime scene well past sunrise. According to police, he surfed the web on Miyazawa's computer, raided the refrigerator for a snack and used the toilet, not bothering to flush afterward.

Based on evidence at the crime scene, the suspect was a young male in his late teens or early 20s, of slender build and medium height. He left behind his fingerprints, DNA, shoe prints, and personal items. Police were confident this wealth of forensic and material evidence would enable them to track down the culprit in short order.

The killer's DNA turned out to be particularly unusual as he appeared to have European ancestry on his mother's side. Other DNA markers suggested a possible link to either China or Korea.
In the folds of a carrying pouch he left behind were grains of sand of a type not found in Japan.''

''If the killer was economically deprived, perhaps some dispute over money with either Mikio or Yasuko Miyazawa may have moved him to seek revenge.

"Among some criminals, the sense of self-victimhood from being economically deprived can inspire homicidal rage," writes Motohashi, who believes police investigators ought to change their focus to probe the money angle.''

''The killer remained inside the house for 2 to 10 hours, using the family computer, consuming four bottles of barley tea, melon, and four ice creams from their refrigerator, using their toilet and leaving his feces in it without flushing, treating his injuries using first aid kits and other sanitary products, and taking a nap on a sofa in the second-floor living room. Drawers and papers were ransacked (with some being dumped in the bath and toilet) and some money was taken (although more was left behind). Surprisingly, the killer also left ten items behind on the family sofa (knife, scarf, hip bag, sweater, jacket, hat, gloves, shoes, and two handkerchiefs).''
 
Speculation, imo, fwiw..
LE wondered (article below), if the perp was economically disadvantaged which possibly led to homicidal rage, could it be that he thinks he is 'disadvantaged' as far as family goes, feelings heightened after Xmas ?

Maybe he has no family, or a broken one and he watches the 'perfect family' of a husband, wife, and one boy and a girl, living in a nice (and conveniently & relatively isolated) home on the river?

It is as if he wanted the very lives of the family whose lives he took- eating their food, touching & meddling with their items, sleeping on the couch- he essentially 'absorbed' the family and ''expelled'' them, without flushing..
Satiated, he can now 'shed' his own persona, by leaving his possessions behind?

2022 rbbm
View attachment 469429
The houses of the Miyazawa family (on right) and Mikio's mother Setsuko, as they appeared in December 2020. Police have continued to patrol the neighborhood, perhaps in expectation the killer might return to the scene of the crime. Photo: M Lupescu

''The killer was believed to have entered through the upstairs bathroom window. After strangling Rei in his bed, police determined he used a fish knife he had brought with him to stab the other three family members to death.

Rather than flee under cover of darkness, the killer then inexplicably lingered at the crime scene well past sunrise. According to police, he surfed the web on Miyazawa's computer, raided the refrigerator for a snack and used the toilet, not bothering to flush afterward.

Based on evidence at the crime scene, the suspect was a young male in his late teens or early 20s, of slender build and medium height. He left behind his fingerprints, DNA, shoe prints, and personal items. Police were confident this wealth of forensic and material evidence would enable them to track down the culprit in short order.

The killer's DNA turned out to be particularly unusual as he appeared to have European ancestry on his mother's side. Other DNA markers suggested a possible link to either China or Korea.
In the folds of a carrying pouch he left behind were grains of sand of a type not found in Japan.''

''If the killer was economically deprived, perhaps some dispute over money with either Mikio or Yasuko Miyazawa may have moved him to seek revenge.

"Among some criminals, the sense of self-victimhood from being economically deprived can inspire homicidal rage," writes Motohashi, who believes police investigators ought to change their focus to probe the money angle.''

''The killer remained inside the house for 2 to 10 hours, using the family computer, consuming four bottles of barley tea, melon, and four ice creams from their refrigerator, using their toilet and leaving his feces in it without flushing, treating his injuries using first aid kits and other sanitary products, and taking a nap on a sofa in the second-floor living room. Drawers and papers were ransacked (with some being dumped in the bath and toilet) and some money was taken (although more was left behind). Surprisingly, the killer also left ten items behind on the family sofa (knife, scarf, hip bag, sweater, jacket, hat, gloves, shoes, and two handkerchiefs).''
Obviously, I can't categorically discount this theory or the thoughts of Mr. Motohashi, but to me, with no disrespect at all intended, it seems very, very unlikely as a motive for a few reasons.

Firstly, if he's economically disadvantaged, how does he have a brand-new Uniqlo jacket, a $50 shirt, a knife of around the same price, and seemingly sand grains from the Mojave Desert indicating access to international travel?

Secondly, if there was some kind of financial jealousy angle, why the Miyazawa family? We know from speaking to Mikio's mother that he was a relatively frugal man who kept detailed financial records since childhood. If Motohashi is explicitly urging the TMPD away from their current line of investigation to steer them towards a financial motivation, what's that based on? True, they lived in a relatively large home by Tokyo standards but he describes the homes in the area as "spacious." The video of the house tour is widely available. I would not describe it in any way as spacious considering it was a family of 4. Motohashi leans on the words "if" and "some criminals". Not exactly a rock-solid reason imo.

Thirdly, he himself suggests that thieves prefer to target homes that are easy to break into. This was not the case with this home. Also, what kind of thief enters a home to steal and immediately kills a sleeping child? And what kind of thief assumes a family home will be empty at night with lights on? None of this passes the smell test. Illogical imo.

This was the comment I posted in response to the article at the time:

Nicolas84Dec. 29, 2022 11:59 pm JST​

Full disclosure, I made a recently-released a 7-part podcast with USG Audio (Universal) regarding this case so I have a somewhat in-depth perspective. It's not my intention to criticise the author of this article, nor Mr. Motohashi. In the podcast (it's called FACELESS) we speak to TMPD personnel involved in the investigation of these murders, as well as various experts. And frankly, there are fundamental errors being recycled and regurgitated down the years in the reportage regarding this case.

"The killer was believed to have entered through the upstairs bathroom window."
False. TMPD are still unsure to this day whether the killer entered through the window -- which had no kind of fibres in it -- or the front door -- which had no bloody footprints. It's a puzzle. [The balcony into Rei's room remains another possibility that, for whatever reason, is little discussed. I've mentioned this many times in the WS thread].

"Rather than flee under cover of darkness, the killer then inexplicably lingered at the crime scene well past sunrise."
False. The only known timestamp we have for the killer's actions are 1:18am-1:23am when he logs on to the computer and then logs off. That's literally the only certain timeframe we have. The idea about him staying until the morning arises out of the "second" activation of the computer but this was caused by the grandmother just before discovering the bodies. [As per the Chief's confirmation].

"The killer's DNA turned out to be particularly unusual as he appeared to have European ancestry on his mother's side. Other DNA markers suggested a possible link to either China or Korea."
False. Mitochondrial DNA analysed in the early 2000s simply could not have confirmed one way or another where his mother was from. If she was born in Portugal, that might be a lead. If it's his great grandmother x16 that's born in Portugal, that's worth very little. The TMPD have not published this information on the DNA. There's a reason for that -- it was leaked by an employee of the university where they were seeking a second opinion. Therefore, the killer's DNA suggests ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at this time. [It IS, of course, possible that he is ethnically Korean, we just don't know this for any kind of fact. NB, the TMPD could confirm this if they were able].

"Some have theorized that a person of foreign origin might have less compunction to killing members of a different racial or ethnic group, but unless more facts are known, such a theory can be no more than speculation."
So, some people are racists? This is neither news nor relevant. "Some" have theorised the moon is made of cheese or that Elvis is still alive.

If the killer was economically deprived, perhaps some dispute over money with either Mikio or Yasuko Miyazawa may have moved him to seek revenge. "Among some criminals, the sense of self-victimhood from being economically deprived can inspire homicidal rage," writes Motohashi, who believes police investigators ought to change their focus to probe the money angle.
So, let me get this straight. The murderer is so angry at being poor, he slaughters an entire family... but leaves behind money in their house? [The Chief confirmed he took some money but left a significant amount by the family computer which he used].

"But thieves," Motohashi contends, "prefer to target houses that are easy to break into, not necessarily those that appear wealthy."
Why the hell would a thief target a family house at a time when it was obvious the family would be home? The lights were on and it was the holiday period. This makes zero sense.

"Since the crime experts who analyze the Miyazawa case enjoy above-average economic status themselves, they may not be capable of fully grasping the psychology of a desperately needy person reacting on the spur of moment," Motohashi writes.
With all due respect to Mr. Motohashi, I've spoken personally to some of those involved in the investigation of the case and I don't think their "economic status" in any way affected this case. And frankly, the idea of someone being so poor they end up slaughtering an entire family is among the more stupid theories I've heard.
 
Obviously, I can't categorically discount this theory or the thoughts of Mr. Motohashi, but to me, with no disrespect at all intended, it seems very, very unlikely as a motive for a few reasons.

Firstly, if he's economically disadvantaged, how does he have a brand-new Uniqlo jacket, a $50 shirt, a knife of around the same price, and seemingly sand grains from the Mojave Desert indicating access to international travel?

Secondly, if there was some kind of financial jealousy angle, why the Miyazawa family? We know from speaking to Mikio's mother that he was a relatively frugal man who kept detailed financial records since childhood. If Motohashi is explicitly urging the TMPD away from their current line of investigation to steer them towards a financial motivation, what's that based on? True, they lived in a relatively large home by Tokyo standards but he describes the homes in the area as "spacious." The video of the house tour is widely available. I would not describe it in any way as spacious considering it was a family of 4. Motohashi leans on the words "if" and "some criminals". Not exactly a rock-solid reason imo.

Thirdly, he himself suggests that thieves prefer to target homes that are easy to break into. This was not the case with this home. Also, what kind of thief enters a home to steal and immediately kills a sleeping child? And what kind of thief assumes a family home will be empty at night with lights on? None of this passes the smell test. Illogical imo.

This was the comment I posted in response to the article at the time:

Nicolas84Dec. 29, 2022 11:59 pm JST​

Full disclosure, I made a recently-released a 7-part podcast with USG Audio (Universal) regarding this case so I have a somewhat in-depth perspective. It's not my intention to criticise the author of this article, nor Mr. Motohashi. In the podcast (it's called FACELESS) we speak to TMPD personnel involved in the investigation of these murders, as well as various experts. And frankly, there are fundamental errors being recycled and regurgitated down the years in the reportage regarding this case.

"The killer was believed to have entered through the upstairs bathroom window."
False. TMPD are still unsure to this day whether the killer entered through the window -- which had no kind of fibres in it -- or the front door -- which had no bloody footprints. It's a puzzle. [The balcony into Rei's room remains another possibility that, for whatever reason, is little discussed. I've mentioned this many times in the WS thread].

"Rather than flee under cover of darkness, the killer then inexplicably lingered at the crime scene well past sunrise."
False. The only known timestamp we have for the killer's actions are 1:18am-1:23am when he logs on to the computer and then logs off. That's literally the only certain timeframe we have. The idea about him staying until the morning arises out of the "second" activation of the computer but this was caused by the grandmother just before discovering the bodies. [As per the Chief's confirmation].

"The killer's DNA turned out to be particularly unusual as he appeared to have European ancestry on his mother's side. Other DNA markers suggested a possible link to either China or Korea."
False. Mitochondrial DNA analysed in the early 2000s simply could not have confirmed one way or another where his mother was from. If she was born in Portugal, that might be a lead. If it's his great grandmother x16 that's born in Portugal, that's worth very little. The TMPD have not published this information on the DNA. There's a reason for that -- it was leaked by an employee of the university where they were seeking a second opinion. Therefore, the killer's DNA suggests ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at this time. [It IS, of course, possible that he is ethnically Korean, we just don't know this for any kind of fact. NB, the TMPD could confirm this if they were able].

"Some have theorized that a person of foreign origin might have less compunction to killing members of a different racial or ethnic group, but unless more facts are known, such a theory can be no more than speculation."
So, some people are racists? This is neither news nor relevant. "Some" have theorised the moon is made of cheese or that Elvis is still alive.

If the killer was economically deprived, perhaps some dispute over money with either Mikio or Yasuko Miyazawa may have moved him to seek revenge. "Among some criminals, the sense of self-victimhood from being economically deprived can inspire homicidal rage," writes Motohashi, who believes police investigators ought to change their focus to probe the money angle.
So, let me get this straight. The murderer is so angry at being poor, he slaughters an entire family... but leaves behind money in their house? [The Chief confirmed he took some money but left a significant amount by the family computer which he used].

"But thieves," Motohashi contends, "prefer to target houses that are easy to break into, not necessarily those that appear wealthy."
Why the hell would a thief target a family house at a time when it was obvious the family would be home? The lights were on and it was the holiday period. This makes zero sense.

"Since the crime experts who analyze the Miyazawa case enjoy above-average economic status themselves, they may not be capable of fully grasping the psychology of a desperately needy person reacting on the spur of moment," Motohashi writes.
With all due respect to Mr. Motohashi, I've spoken personally to some of those involved in the investigation of the case and I don't think their "economic status" in any way affected this case. And frankly, the idea of someone being so poor they end up slaughtering an entire family is among the more stupid theories I've heard.
Agree that the perp is not economically disadvantaged, surprised that LE considered that angle, but i do think that the perp is jealousy or covetous of the family and the lives they had before he stole them. imo.
 
I’m thinking that the guy posting the horrible messages about killing animals and wanting to see a human’s organs doesn’t really fit. Yes, the stabbings were brutal, but it seems to me that he’d do some of the awful things like he did to the animals to the corpses, such as remove their organs.

On the other hand, we’ve often asked how someone could do such violence, and then hang out in the house with the brutalized bodies. Message-guy certainly seems to fit that part. Hmmm.
 
I’m thinking that the guy posting the horrible messages about killing animals and wanting to see a human’s organs doesn’t really fit. Yes, the stabbings were brutal, but it seems to me that he’d do some of the awful things like he did to the animals to the corpses, such as remove their organs.

On the other hand, we’ve often asked how someone could do such violence, and then hang out in the house with the brutalized bodies. Message-guy certainly seems to fit that part. Hmmm.
The Chief himself they looked into the person who posted these messages. He said "it led nowhere." Seeing as there have never been any arrests, I think we can assume it was just a lonely little person talking big.
 
I'm still trying to get my head around this crime. It's very unusual and bizarre.

Not much makes sense from a profiling point of view. The order in which he attacks the victims is very rare.
One of the few things the TMPD is sure of in terms of timeline is that Rei was murdered first. To me, the instant murder of a child tells me two things are really quite likely:

1) The killer entered first into the house via the window to Rei's room. Quite possible he used the car parked beneath it to get up into that window. From photos, it looks far more doable than the bathroom window at the rear of the house. And more likely than knocking on the front door expecting Mikio, who was working in the entry hallway at the computer, to let him gain access to the second floor.

2) The killer was not there for money. As David Canter says in my podcast, a burglar does not enter a home at a time he knows the family will be present, much less start murdering children from the jump.
 
What's the shortest time he could be in the property for?
Kill four people, eat four ice creams, sit at the computer for five minutes, change clothes... fifteen minutes absolute minimum?

Quite a lot of home invasion criminals spend long periods of time in the property, for various reasons. This guy is about the least forensically aware offender I've ever seen, yet he changes clothes before he leaves. Could he be at least aware enough yo release he can't walk the streets in bloody clothes? If he's worked this out, he may also have realised it's better to wait until 7am or so before he leaves the house. Blend in with the early morning rush as he heads back home.

I'm not sure if a 15 or 17 year old could stay out all night though, without his own parents calling the cops. Perhaps he tries to get back before his parents wake up, hence the jogging type outfit he changes into... I'm just out on a training run officer...
 
One of the few things the TMPD is sure of in terms of timeline is that Rei was murdered first. To me, the instant murder of a child tells me two things are really quite likely:

1) The killer entered first into the house via the window to Rei's room. Quite possible he used the car parked beneath it to get up into that window. From photos, it looks far more doable than the bathroom window at the rear of the house. And more likely than knocking on the front door expecting Mikio, who was working in the entry hallway at the computer, to let him gain access to the second floor.

2) The killer was not there for money. As David Canter says in my podcast, a burglar does not enter a home at a time he knows the family will be present, much less start murdering children from the jump.
1) What if deep down Rei is the main target for a completely disorganised offender? Rei is the only one strangled, isn't he?

2) It reminds me a bit of Joseph DeAngelo, the Golden State Killer, who often left large amounts of cash lying around. DeAngelo was a prolific nuisance burglar, before he became a killer, but was very evidence conscious. I can't really see a perp who leaves 16,000 bits of evidence being a prolific burglar or prowler in his past though.
 
What's the shortest time he could be in the property for?
Kill four people, eat four ice creams, sit at the computer for five minutes, change clothes... fifteen minutes absolute minimum?

Quite a lot of home invasion criminals spend long periods of time in the property, for various reasons. This guy is about the least forensically aware offender I've ever seen, yet he changes clothes before he leaves. Could he be at least aware enough yo release he can't walk the streets in bloody clothes? If he's worked this out, he may also have realised it's better to wait until 7am or so before he leaves the house. Blend in with the early morning rush as he heads back home.

I'm not sure if a 15 or 17 year old could stay out all night though, without his own parents calling the cops. Perhaps he tries to get back before his parents wake up, hence the jogging type outfit he changes into... I'm just out on a training run officer...
There are only three time stamps, two of which are absolutely nailed on.

A) 10:38pm, Mikio opens a work e-mail which is password protected.
B) At some point around 11/11:30pm, the family next door, (Yasuko's maternal family), describe hearing a bang. They supposedly hear no screams. TMPD later work out this bang is the attic folding ladder being thrown back up into place.
C) The killer accesses the computer between 1:18am-1:23am.

I don't believe he left in the morning, I believe he left shortly after using the computer. Or at least that this is more likely. A young man with serious injuries, wearing the clothes of a dead man, but no jacket in December, on NYE morning, on the world's busiest transport grid? It would have been a miracle for not one single Tokyoite to notice him. No, I think it's more likely that once he recovered enough from his injuries and doing whatever he wanted to do in the house, he left under cover of darkness.

Also, anything you read about a second computer activation in the morning is wrong. The Chief confirmed this was the grandmother accidentally 'waking' the computer as she brushed by upon discovering Mikio's dead body at the foot of the stairs on the ground floor. One final note about timings. The grandmother discovers the murders around 10am, if memory serves. The police are called around 11am. This always seemed like a long gap to me. But I think there is some suggestion Haruko, the maternal grandmother who discovered the bodies, fainted.

As for changing his clothes. My assumption was that this was always driven by necessity. He wore a white shirt to the house, for starters. He would've been covered in blood. Both belonging to the family and himself. He simply dresses in Mikio's clothes before leaving (except for his own trousers -presumably dark- and his shoes -he wore a much bigger size than Mikio and therefore had no choice. As for a teenager staying out all night, I myself did this plenty of times by saying I was staying at one friend or another's house. The person of interest I'm looking at had a girlfriend, for one thing. Plus, this assumes that his parents wouldn't have worked out his crimes afterwards. I think there's every chance, given the news coverage and the unmistakable injuries, that his parents might have realised he was the murderer. But faced with giving up their son to the police or sitting on a terrible secret, it's quite possible they went with the latter.

Final point on timings, if you do some reading through this thread / listen to my podcast, you'll come across the theory that the killer was the son of an American USAF airman, stationed at Yokota. Worth pointing out that many of the family dependents, including teenagers, had both access to cars and that curfew ended at 5am...
 
1) What if deep down Rei is the main target for a completely disorganised offender? Rei is the only one strangled, isn't he?

2) It reminds me a bit of Joseph DeAngelo, the Golden State Killer, who often left large amounts of cash lying around. DeAngelo was a prolific nuisance burglar, before he became a killer, but was very evidence conscious. I can't really see a perp who leaves 16,000 bits of evidence being a prolific burglar or prowler in his past though.
1) It's very possible but there's simply not enough out there for us to make the call, imo. Rei was the first to die and the only one strangled. This could indicate he was the 'true' target. On the other hand, why a six-year-old boy? What if the killer just wanted to keep noise to a minimum? What if he simply attacked the first person he came to if he did enter the house through Rei's window as I believe he did? Also, we could say that Mikio or Yasuko would make more likely targets given their social exposure, both of them working, out in the world, with the possibility to offend, anger, or entice somehow the killer. Also, Yasuko bore by far and away the greatest level of violence. Again, we could say that SHE was the 'true' target as a result. Or maybe it was simply that the killer at that point knew he was free to let go and lose control. As for the labels of disorganised/organised. I find this killer confounding. He clearly came prepared with a plan, a knife, gloves, he covered his face and so on. He wasn't there for money, the Chief said there was no semen at the scene or no evidence of a sexual motive. So we can conclude he was there to kill. But then things go south when he slices through his own gloves as he stabs Mikio. At this point, he seemingly gives up totally on the plan and just leans into the carelessness. Maybe he thinks 'in for a penny, in for a pound'. This certainly jives with someone who knows they're leaving Japan for good...

2) If the police are right about the age, then the killer can't have had a very long burglary career... And the family next door said that there was nothing missing from the house except for maybe a small amount of money (though he left a significant amount by the family PC).
 
'In for a penny, in for a pound' is a possibility, but I don't know if such an offender is thinking on those terms. Even a ten year old knows not to wear a white shirt to a spaghetti dinner. This guy isn't dressed all in black like a typical late night offender. It's just so bizarre.

The lack of semen amongst 16,000 samples is also bizarre. The only other first time crime of this magnitude that I can think of is the first crime of Dennis Rader the BTK murderer. In the mid 70s he killed a family of four in his first known crime, then targeted adult women for the next couple of decades before being caught by familial DNA and his own stupidity in contacting the papers after years of silence.
Rader left semen at the crime scene. Criminologists have speculated that more recent killers use the toilet to flush away such evidence.
I can't see this killer leaving his blood, saliva, and clothes, and shittting everywhere, yet hiding a sexual element (his semen).
 
Agree that the perp is not economically disadvantaged, surprised that LE considered that angle, but i do think that the perp is jealousy or covetous of the family and the lives they had before he stole them. imo.

I feel he was not jealous of them economically. To me, he resembles Jake Patterson of WI who abducted JC. Something similar: intense loneliness, maybe dreaming of a girlfriend like Nina, or maybe even friends like Nina and Rei. I think when he started killing, he realized he could not take "a friend" with him, and his mounting cruelty towards women might be explained by frustration. And then, he stays long enough to "imagine" how it would have been if he visited his "friends" in their house, so he stays longer. He familiarized himself with the house; I doubt he'd been there before.

8 years of difference between JP and JC. If Nina was 9, that would make the killer approximately a 17-year-old immature loner, IMHO.

The post by the animals-killer being "our killer" is not impossible, only the animal killer enjoys animals dying, and the Setagaya killer enjoys staying in the house with the dead family. I feel it is more like "if I can't have live friends whom I can visit, let me visit their house when they are dead".

I don't think ethnicity plays a role; I assume the killer has to speak Japanese well enough to dream of Japanese friends, and IMHO he identifies more with the Asians.

(A totally unrelated question, how are Eurasians viewed in Japan? They are very popular in US and China, I don't know the Japanese situation, though).

Another question: if he lives in the US, how come he did not carry on killing? A dog and humsn killer would continue. I suspect, he got a girlfriend and later, a family of his own. (This is why I think it was Jake Patterson's type, sadistic but motivated by the wish to steal friendship).

(However: could the Mojave desert be the place where he killed first?)
 
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