JonBenét Ramsey Case: My Theory & Key Questions

[Meara]

right. ... now that snow is patchy, but the picture is obviously later in the day. you'd expect the areas that are exposed grass in the image there to have had the light dusting at 6 AM. on top of near-continuous old snow coverage over big swaths of the yard. probably enough to expect to see tracks. at least for the parts of the front yard visible in that picture.

i do also wonder how much the old snow coverage and/or new dusting varied around the house at 6 AM... if i'm not mistaken, that picture you just posted is looking due west. so the far side of the house (from this perspective) doesn't get sun until after noon. the old snow cover on brick/stone surfaces might conceivably have melted on previous afternoons, but the fresh dusting from the night before should still have been there at 6 am.

this is not a complete accounting of all approaches to the house, but i'm getting more convinced the snow cover was such that you'd expect an intruder to leave footprints.

There's another photo of the front yard taken earlier in the day, one with a police cruiser in it - showing more snow - just couldn't locate it right away. You're correct about the orientation of the house

The police were particularly interested in the grassy area around the grate. Even if the snow had already disappeared from the brick/stone surfaces at 6:00 AM, it would still have been on the grass, and that space was big enough to have retained footprints.

 

[Meara]

sorry if these questions are too obscure, but...

do we know if there were fences between them and the neighbors on both sides, in 1996?

was the alleyway behind them there in 1996? if so, i assume they at least had a gate to the alley, if not wide-open access between the alley and their backyard.

does anyone know anything about snow coverage in the alley, on the patio, or in the backyard generally? ... my guess would be that grassy areas in the back would look similar to the front yard in that picture, and at 6 AM the bare areas would have at least had the fresh dusting.

i'm trying to constrain the possible pathways an intruder could have taken and without leaving tracks noticeable to first responding officers. not sure it's impossible, but it's looking hard.

Here you go - Purportedly, the first photo of the house exterior on the 26th, before the crime scene tape went up.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=ht...3ad8a6814a7dabd33dd0a984b109b0f9060&rdt=42715

 

[Meara]

right. ... now that snow is patchy, but the picture is obviously later in the day. you'd expect the areas that are exposed grass in the image there to have had the light dusting at 6 AM. on top of near-continuous old snow coverage over big swaths of the yard. probably enough to expect to see tracks. at least for the parts of the front yard visible in that picture.

i do also wonder how much the old snow coverage and/or new dusting varied around the house at 6 AM... if i'm not mistaken, that picture you just posted is looking due west. so the far side of the house (from this perspective) doesn't get sun until after noon. the old snow cover on brick/stone surfaces might conceivably have melted on previous afternoons, but the fresh dusting from the night before should still have been there at 6 am.

this is not a complete accounting of all approaches to the house, but i'm getting more convinced the snow cover was such that you'd expect an intruder to leave footprints.

Two more - the last. These were not taken on the 26th but may give you a better idea of the dimensions of the grate area with snow. I'm not trying to convince you of anything; just responding to your questions. HTH.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=ht...bp&s=ed3f4f8a88061e565afcae9a67c80b0fef91b666

https://crimerocket2.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/fullscreen-capture-20210223-142412-001.jpg

 

[Meara]

sorry if these questions are too obscure, but...

do we know if there were fences between them and the neighbors on both sides, in 1996?

was the alleyway behind them there in 1996? if so, i assume they at least had a gate to the alley, if not wide-open access between the alley and their backyard.

does anyone know anything about snow coverage in the alley, on the patio, or in the backyard generally? ... my guess would be that grassy areas in the back would look similar to the front yard in that picture, and at 6 AM the bare areas would have at least had the fresh dusting.

i'm trying to constrain the possible pathways an intruder could have taken and without leaving tracks noticeable to first responding officers. not sure it's impossible, but it's looking hard.

There was a fence between the Ramsey property and the neighbor's to the south. To the north - not that I recall. The properties were separated by large trees. The alley was there in 1996 and a gate separating the alley from the property. The alley probably was plowed and didn't have much snow. It's where people put their bins out and it provided access to their driveways. The patio and back yard, I don't know. The police thought along the same lines as you and did look around the property for fresh footprints in the snow (and checked JB's balcony, as well).

However, snow is not the whole story. Sly access to the property from the alley would have been virtually impossible because the neighbors across the alley, who knew the Ramseys, had a dog that barked when anyone unfamiliar came near, regardless of the hour. The fact that the dog, in the best Holmsian manner, didn't bark the night of the murder is important circumstantial evidence that weighs against the Ramseys.

 

[Lebowski]

excellent. i appreciate all this.

 

[Lebowski]

this is probably asking way too much, but does anyone know whether the snow the night before was light and powdery? because if it was that kind of snow and got blown around, that's the only way i can picture it not still being in front of the grating and basement window at 6 AM.

i have a less clear sense of what the north side of the yard might have looked like, snow-wise. looks (at least today) like it was grassy and wooded, so probably you'd have snow-free spots under the trees, but relatively little melting. ... anyway, it doesn't seem like any reasonable entry and exit points are on that side of the house, so maybe it doesn't matter.

 

[Meara]

this is probably asking way too much, but does anyone know whether the snow the night before was light and powdery? because if it was that kind of snow and got blown around, that's the only way i can picture it not still being in front of the grating and basement window at 6 AM.

i have a less clear sense of what the north side of the yard might have looked like, snow-wise. looks (at least today) like it was grassy and wooded, so probably you'd have snow-free spots under the trees, but relatively little melting. ... anyway, it doesn't seem like any reasonable entry and exit points are on that side of the house, so maybe it doesn't matter..

Check the historical weather records I sent you; wind speed was nil, so, not enough to blow snow around. Disagree about the north side of the house. That's the location of the butler's pantry door.

 

[Lebowski]

oh yeah, i see two doors there. butler's pantry door and a storage room door.

however, i'm looking at an aerial winter shot (obviously from later years) and it shows plenty of snow coverage on the ground against that side of the house. the trees are further back than i thought and do not seem to overhang the walkway. ... that makes me think there would have been snow in front of both those doors, at least the dusting from the night before.

and iiuc, we don't have a clear accounting from the police at 6 AM that all the doors were locked, BUT we do have john saying so when they arrived. and iirc, one of the north side doors had a key under the mat, but what intruder (and rapist and murderer) locks the door again on the way out and is nice enough to put the key back? (you might imagine an intruder did this to cover their tracks and implicate the ramseys, but why bother after leaving a note and claiming to have kidnapped JB??)


ok, i'm not seeing how an intruder gets in, much less does so without leaving tracks in the snow that would have been noticed by any of the first-responding police at 6 AM who specifically checked for them. like i'm sure there are still some possibilities, but they're getting pretty contrived and not very ockham's razory.

 

[Meara]

oh yeah, i see two doors there. butler's pantry door and a storage room door.

however, i'm looking at an aerial winter shot (obviously from later years) and it shows plenty of snow coverage on the ground against that side of the house. the trees are further back than i thought and do not seem to overhang the walkway. ... that makes me think there would have been snow in front of both those doors, at least the dusting from the night before.

and iiuc, we don't have a clear accounting from the police at 6 AM that all the doors were locked, BUT we do have john saying so when they arrived. and iirc, one of the north side doors had a key under the mat, but what intruder (and rapist and murderer) locks the door again on the way out and is nice enough to put the key back? (you might imagine an intruder did this to cover their tracks and implicate the ramseys, but why bother after leaving a note and claiming to have kidnapped JB??)


ok, i'm not seeing how an intruder gets in, much less does so without leaving tracks in the snow that would have been noticed by any of the first-responding police at 6 AM who specifically checked for them. like i'm sure there are still some possibilities, but they're getting pretty contrived and not very ockham's razory.

What intruder, indeed? Yes to all of that and the razor, too.

Except the key under the doormat. I've been away from the board for a while and, coming back, see several references to this key. I've followed the case from early on and joined WS over 10 years ago, and this is the first I've heard of the key. Do you know where the info came from? Is it a detail newly discovered or disclosed by JR?

 

[Lebowski]

i don't remember where i read about any key under the doormat, and i can't find any source for it now

 

[Meara]

i don't remember where i read about any key under the doormat, and i can't find any source for it now

Okay; thanks. That tells me there wasn't one. Otherwise, JR wouldn't have needed to break in to the basement when he forgot his key (allegedly); or he would have told police about the key that morning ('We hid a key there because I kept locking myself out.'), and it would be in the case records and discussion history.

Just for myself, the real sticking point with the intruder theory isn't the snow/footprint or the spider web issue. Maybe police or the spider expert were mistaken. Maybe some quirk of nature erased the footprints or kept the web in tact. Unlikely, but we can't know with 100% certainty. The factor that can't be argued is the lack of debris from the window well. Even if an intruder had managed to break in without leaving tracks or breaking the spider web, there's no way he could have avoided dragging debris in with him. None. And there was no window well debris on the train room floor. None. And there's no evidence of a break-in anywhere else in the house.

Could an intruder have entered by sheer luck through an unlocked door? Sure. But that doesn't match with a long ransom note and a practice note, plus knowledge of the Ramseys. And how does a B&E spiral from theft to kidnap to SA and murder? Besides, who slogs around the neighborhood through the old snow and freezing cold, just hoping to find an unlocked door? Estimated TOD is 10:30 PM - 1:30 AM, when the temperature was about 5° F. In other words, although lucky access is a remote possibility, it doesn't fit into any coherent theory of the crime.

If someone outside the family killed JBR, it either had to be someone they let in or someone who had a key, and most of the latter group have been ruled out. JMO.

 

[Lebowski]

Okay; thanks. That tells me there wasn't one. Otherwise, JR wouldn't have needed to break in to the basement when he forgot his key (allegedly); or he would have told police about the key that morning ('We hid a key there because I kept locking myself out.'), and it would be in the case records and discussion history.

Just for myself, the real sticking point with the intruder theory isn't the snow/footprint or the spider web issue. Maybe police or the spider expert were mistaken. Maybe some quirk of nature erased the footprints or kept the web in tact. Unlikely, but we can't know with 100% certainty. The factor that can't be argued is the lack of debris from the window well. Even if an intruder had managed to break in without leaving tracks or breaking the spider web, there's no way he could have avoided dragging debris in with him. None. And there was no window well debris on the train room floor. None. And there's no evidence of a break-in anywhere else in the house.

Could an intruder have entered by sheer luck through an unlocked door? Sure. But that doesn't match with a long ransom note and a practice note, plus knowledge of the Ramseys. And how does a B&E spiral from theft to kidnap to SA and murder? Besides, who slogs around the neighborhood through the old snow and freezing cold, just hoping to find an unlocked door? Estimated TOD is 10:30 PM - 1:30 AM, when the temperature was about 5° F. In other words, although lucky access is a remote possibility, it doesn't fit into any coherent theory of the crime.

If someone outside the family killed JBR, it either had to be someone they let in or someone who had a key, and most of the latter group have been ruled out. JMO.

i've been convinced for a while that no intruder came in that window. for me, any possibilities of IDI rest on the intruder coming in other ways. either another window, an unlocked door, or someone had a key.

one day a few weeks ago, i read the claim about the key under the mat, and within a few minutes also read that (supposedly) the 6 AM police didn't have a record of having personally checked that every single door was locked. that got my mind going, and i started wondering if maybe there could have been an intruder after all. ... plus, it strikes me that a friend or acquaintance of the ramseys could check most of the boxes, like knowing the amount of john's bonus, knowing the dog was at the neighbors, knowing the alarm was off, knowing their way around the house, etc.

but all that has since come apart for me. apparently the key under the mat is a fairy tale. the police took a hard look at a lot of people around the ramseys without finding anyone suspicious. and i think we can take john's word for it at 6 AM that all the doors were locked. i see no reason for him to lie about it under any scenario, and if he was being truthful it seems likely he would have been careful in checking, given the circumstances.

if anyone else had keys, i assume the police would have looked especially closely at them. if there were any other viable windows, i think they would have come up. think i read somewhere that all but the broken one were locked. with an intruder you need to account for entry and exit, and even if another window was originally unlocked, an intruder can't exit through it and leave it locked.

 

[Lebowski]

though there is one intruder who absolutely entered the house that night, and he never comes up i think because people just can't bear to imagine jolly old st nicholas would have such a dark side to him

Spoiler

SCDI

 

[Lebowski]

@Meara and @CloudedTruth

i'm considering doing a deep dive and write-up on snow and footprints, citing and carefully reviewing all the best (publicly available) evidence, and deciding once and for all what can be said about snow coverage in the morning and what the lack of observed footprints on various surfaces means.

however, that would be dumb if someone else has already done it. and, in 30 years, it would be odd if no one had. are you guys aware of such a write-up anywhere? maybe in one of the books?

of course, it would be really nice to have actual photographs from 12/26/96, preferably in the morning, with traceable provenance to BPD. IIUC, those photographs DO exist, but have not been made public. or at least not all of them have. and it's hard to find any with live links and good provenance.

 

[CloudedTruth]

@Meara and @CloudedTruth

i'm considering doing a deep dive and write-up on snow and footprints, citing and carefully reviewing all the best (publicly available) evidence, and deciding once and for all what can be said about snow coverage in the morning and what the lack of observed footprints on various surfaces means.

however, that would be dumb if someone else has already done it. and, in 30 years, it would be odd if no one had. are you guys aware of such a write-up anywhere? maybe in one of the books?

of course, it would be really nice to have actual photographs from 12/26/96, preferably in the morning, with traceable provenance to BPD. IIUC, those photographs DO exist, but have not been made public. or at least not all of them have. and it's hard to find any with live links and good provenance.

I've seen discussions many times in various forums, but I have not seen a comprehensive deep dive of all credible information compiled in one place, speaking only for myself of course.

The most informative conversations that I've seen have involved the police report(s) of first responders that cite the precise conditions that were noted at 6:00AM. I have also seen discussions that involve old weather reports from the night of the 25th and on the day of the 26th to dispute what was personally observed that morning, however those old weather reports are not 100% accurate.

Pictures can be found on acandyrose and also on the #Shakedown site. Many pictures are often posted on Reddit as well.

Cottonstar has posted information about the pictures as some are not time stamped. CSI Officer Barry Weiss was taking pictures of the crime scene that morning. He started with JB's bedroom working his way through every room on that floor. He worked his way through the rest of the interior of the house, taking pictures of the exterior last. Det. Arndt approximated that Weiss was gone by 10:15AM, but it could've been earlier. Best guess is that he was photographing exterior areas of the house likely between 8:45 and 9:00AM.

 

[Lebowski]

thanks

yeah, i know there are tons of pictures floating around, but in most cases it's hard to tell when or even what day they were taken. (and AIUI, the waters got muddied with pictures taken days and even months later)

as far as officer reports/notes, arndt's are easy to find, and yes, she says weiss was photographing "the interior and exterior of the house", and she records this some time in the 8 o'clock hour. it sounds like you have more detail than i do about where and when weiss took pictures. where did you get that? anyway, those pictures would be gold if they are public and demonstrably taken by BPD on that morning. ... i would love to see reichenbach's 6 am report, but AFAICT, the only publicly available part of it is a quoted excerpt used in a warrant application. also, frankly, any other firsthand officers' reports from that day. french? anyone else?

 

[CloudedTruth]

thanks

yeah, i know there are tons of pictures floating around, but in most cases it's hard to tell when or even what day they were taken. (and AIUI, the waters got muddied with pictures taken days and even months later)

as far as officer reports/notes, arndt's are easy to find, and yes, she says weiss was photographing "the interior and exterior of the house", and she records this some time in the 8 o'clock hour. it sounds like you have more detail than i do about where and when weiss took pictures. where did you get that? anyway, those pictures would be gold if they are public and demonstrably taken by BPD on that morning. ... i would love to see reichenbach's 6 am report, but AFAICT, the only publicly available part of it is a quoted excerpt used in a warrant application. also, frankly, any other firsthand officers' reports from that day. french? anyone else?

Some of the info comes from Cottonstar's posts on the jonbenet ramsey sub on reddit. In Det. Whitson's police report he states that he was told "there was no sign of forced entry and there were no footprints of possible suspects found outside the home". Det. Whitson's and Det. Arndt's reports can be found online. Also a portion of Det. Patterson's.

 

[Meara]

No Prints in the Snow (Mostly)-All-In-One Post

Information about the grate/snow/lack of footprints is spread out across many threads and posts, so i thought it might be useful to gather the key pieces in one place. Feel free to add information for which you can provide links/sources. Some of the information posted here was gathered from this 2006 thread: https://websleuths.com/threads/no-footprints-in-the-snow.36096/

Linda Arndt’s Supplemental Report dated 1/8/97 contains the following passage:

Sgt. Reichenbach said there was a light dusting of snow on the ground when he arrived at the Ramsey residence. Sgt. Reichenbach did not notice any footprints or other tracks in the snow. Sgt. Reichenbach personally checked the exterior of the Ramsey residence. Sgt. Reichenbach did not notice any signs of forced entry.
https://juror13lw.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/linda-arndt-jan-8-1997-report.pdf


The police report on Sgt. Reichenbach’s report offers matching and additional information:

"Sgt Reichenbach states in his report that he had arrived at the Ramsey home at approximately 0600 hours on December 26 and that he had examined the exterior of the Ramsey home as well as the yard. Sgt Reichenbach noted that the air temperature was approximately 10 degrees Fahrenheit. Sgt Reichenbach noted in his report that there was a very light dusting of snow and frost on the exposed grass in the yard outside the Ramsey home. Some of the grass and yard was covered with snow from previous snowfall(s) and this snow was described as being crusty and measuring one-two inches deep. Sgt Reichenbach states that he saw no fresh footprints in any of the snow or in the frost on the grass..."
The Smoking Gun: Public Documents, Mug Shots
(This source is quoted in an old WS thread. While the website exists, the current archive only goes back to 1997.)


Then we have this from Charlie Brennan’s column in the Rocky Mountain News on 3/11/97:

Snow at Ramsey house lacked footprints
Absence of tracks was among first clues that led police to suspect members of family

By Charlie Brennan
Rocky Mountain News Staff Writer

BOULDER -- Police who went to JonBenet Ramsey's home the morning she was reported missing found no footprints in the snow surrounding the house, sources said Monday. That is one of the earliest details that caused investigators to focus their attention on the slain girl's family, police sources said. Although there was no significant storm just before police went to the house the morning after Christmas, it had snowed lightly several times from Dec. 23 to 25, weather records show. These snowfalls all came on top of a snow cover that persisted from about Dec. 16 through the Dec. 26, when the 6-year-old beauty queen was found sexually assaulted and strangled in the family's basement. Still, police said, the first investigators arriving at the Ramsey home in response to mother Patsy Ramsey's 911 call at 5:52 a.m. on Dec. 26 reported no fresh tracks leading to or from the house.
http://denver.rockymountainnews.com/extra/ramsey/0311jon.htm
(This link was posted on WS in 2006 and no longer pulls up the exact article but does connect to the newspaper archives.)

The “first investigators” mentioned by Brennan were Officers French and Veitch, who arrived at 5:59 AM, shortly before John Fernie and the Whites (PMPT). Schiller also says Sgt. Reichenbach did not arrive until 6:45 AM, although in ITRI Steve Thomas indicates an earlier time, and Reichenbach himself reported his arrival time as “0600.” Thomas also says sunrise was at 6:30 but must have meant that there was daylight at that time since official sunrise occurred about an hour later. He also notes that it was Reichenbach who checked JBR’s room and saw her balcony coated with pristine frost. On the subject of footprints, he includes this paragraph:

The sergeant found no evidence of forced entry during a walk through the house, then went outside. A light dusting of snow and frost lay atop an earlier crusty snow in spotty patches on the grass. He saw no fresh shoe impressions, found no open doors or windows, nothing to indicate a break-in, but walking on the driveway and sidewalks left no visible prints. It was frigid, about nine degrees, and Reichenbach returned inside.
(ITRI, Kindle p.18)


Since we have no crime scene photos of the grate between 6:00 AM and 7:30 AM, weather conditions for Dec. 25th and Dec. 26th are essential for checking whether there could have been sufficient snow to retain footprints, had any been made. Below are archived weather reports for the two days from two separate sources, Weather Underground (for Loveland, CO) and Weather Spark (for Boulder, CO, 33 mi. south of Loveland). While there are some variations in data, the reports agree that there was light snow sometime between 9:30 PM and 12:30 AM; that the winds were calm; that the temperature remained below 10 degrees between 6:00 AM and 7:30 AM; and that the skies were mostly cloudy well into the morning of the 26th. They also show that the temperature in Boulder hovered around 4 - 5 degrees between snowfall and 7:30 AM. Additionally, the grate was located on the south side of the house but facing west, where the morning sun was blocked by the main rooms of the ground floor.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/loveland/KFNL/date/1996-12-25

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/loveland/KFNL/date/1996-12-26

https://weatherspark.com/h/d/3561/1996/12/25/Historical-Weather-on-Wednesday-December-25-1996-in-Boulder-Colorado-United-States
https://weatherspark.com/h/d/3561/1996/12/26/Historical-Weather-on-Thursday-December-26-1996-in-Boulder-Colorado-United-States#Figures-Temperature


Taken together, these data indicate that the light dusting of snow around the grate would not have been blown away or melted by rising temperature or morning sun. The same would apply to the light snow on all the grassy areas of the property since it fell on top of large, crusty swaths of an earlier, heavier snowfall.

The question has come up in the past: JR said the basement was overheated. Could heat escaping from the broken window have melted the snow around the grate? I don’t think so. Below is a link to a photo of the grate area covered with snow (just the link. The photo is very large!). It is not a BPD crime scene photo despite the label. It was taken some time after 12/26/96, in the afternoon, in bright sun, when the temperature would have been near its peak for the day. There is no discernible melting. If the snow around the grate under these conditions didn’t melt, then IMO the snow there on the morning of Dec. 26th - in 5 degree weather, with no sun - didn’t melt from warm basement air, either.
https://shakedowntitle.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/1-fullscreen-capture-20161221-075821-pm.jpg

I wish I could give you a date-stamped picture of the grate area with a light dusting of snow with no footprints. 404 - File Not Found. Oh well. However! – the meteorological data and the comparison photo are consistent with Sgt. Reichenbach’s statements, and his statements are not contradicted by those of any other officers at the scene that morning who inspected the exterior of the house. Additionally, and very significantly, it was the absence of footprints in the snow around the grate (and other possible points of entry/exit) that most reinforced the responding officers’ suspicion of JR and PR - this despite the family’s prominence and the all but certain advice before they left the station to handle the Ramseys with kid gloves. They weren’t suspicious based on “maybe.” They must have been very sure about the missing footprints, footprints no intruder could have failed to leave. That’s not a smoking gun. But it’s really close.


JMO but, given the documented snow/window evidence and information (before we even get to the spiders), and the lack of debris on the train room floor, I think any viable IDI theories have to include a means of entry other than the train room window.