JonBenét Ramsey Case: My Theory & Key Questions

[Meara]

right. ... now that snow is patchy, but the picture is obviously later in the day. you'd expect the areas that are exposed grass in the image there to have had the light dusting at 6 AM. on top of near-continuous old snow coverage over big swaths of the yard. probably enough to expect to see tracks. at least for the parts of the front yard visible in that picture.

i do also wonder how much the old snow coverage and/or new dusting varied around the house at 6 AM... if i'm not mistaken, that picture you just posted is looking due west. so the far side of the house (from this perspective) doesn't get sun until after noon. the old snow cover on brick/stone surfaces might conceivably have melted on previous afternoons, but the fresh dusting from the night before should still have been there at 6 am.

this is not a complete accounting of all approaches to the house, but i'm getting more convinced the snow cover was such that you'd expect an intruder to leave footprints.

There's another photo of the front yard taken earlier in the day, one with a police cruiser in it - showing more snow - just couldn't locate it right away. You're correct about the orientation of the house

The police were particularly interested in the grassy area around the grate. Even if the snow had already disappeared from the brick/stone surfaces at 6:00 AM, it would still have been on the grass, and that space was big enough to have retained footprints.

 

[Meara]

sorry if these questions are too obscure, but...

do we know if there were fences between them and the neighbors on both sides, in 1996?

was the alleyway behind them there in 1996? if so, i assume they at least had a gate to the alley, if not wide-open access between the alley and their backyard.

does anyone know anything about snow coverage in the alley, on the patio, or in the backyard generally? ... my guess would be that grassy areas in the back would look similar to the front yard in that picture, and at 6 AM the bare areas would have at least had the fresh dusting.

i'm trying to constrain the possible pathways an intruder could have taken and without leaving tracks noticeable to first responding officers. not sure it's impossible, but it's looking hard.

Here you go - Purportedly, the first photo of the house exterior on the 26th, before the crime scene tape went up.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=ht...3ad8a6814a7dabd33dd0a984b109b0f9060&rdt=42715

 

[Meara]

right. ... now that snow is patchy, but the picture is obviously later in the day. you'd expect the areas that are exposed grass in the image there to have had the light dusting at 6 AM. on top of near-continuous old snow coverage over big swaths of the yard. probably enough to expect to see tracks. at least for the parts of the front yard visible in that picture.

i do also wonder how much the old snow coverage and/or new dusting varied around the house at 6 AM... if i'm not mistaken, that picture you just posted is looking due west. so the far side of the house (from this perspective) doesn't get sun until after noon. the old snow cover on brick/stone surfaces might conceivably have melted on previous afternoons, but the fresh dusting from the night before should still have been there at 6 am.

this is not a complete accounting of all approaches to the house, but i'm getting more convinced the snow cover was such that you'd expect an intruder to leave footprints.

Two more - the last. These were not taken on the 26th but may give you a better idea of the dimensions of the grate area with snow. I'm not trying to convince you of anything; just responding to your questions. HTH.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=ht...bp&s=ed3f4f8a88061e565afcae9a67c80b0fef91b666

https://crimerocket2.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/fullscreen-capture-20210223-142412-001.jpg

 

[Meara]

sorry if these questions are too obscure, but...

do we know if there were fences between them and the neighbors on both sides, in 1996?

was the alleyway behind them there in 1996? if so, i assume they at least had a gate to the alley, if not wide-open access between the alley and their backyard.

does anyone know anything about snow coverage in the alley, on the patio, or in the backyard generally? ... my guess would be that grassy areas in the back would look similar to the front yard in that picture, and at 6 AM the bare areas would have at least had the fresh dusting.

i'm trying to constrain the possible pathways an intruder could have taken and without leaving tracks noticeable to first responding officers. not sure it's impossible, but it's looking hard.

There was a fence between the Ramsey property and the neighbor's to the south. To the north - not that I recall. The properties were separated by large trees. The alley was there in 1996 and a gate separating the alley from the property. The alley probably was plowed and didn't have much snow. It's where people put their bins out and it provided access to their driveways. The patio and back yard, I don't know. The police thought along the same lines as you and did look around the property for fresh footprints in the snow (and checked JB's balcony, as well).

However, snow is not the whole story. Sly access to the property from the alley would have been virtually impossible because the neighbors across the alley, who knew the Ramseys, had a dog that barked when anyone unfamiliar came near, regardless of the hour. The fact that the dog, in the best Holmsian manner, didn't bark the night of the murder is important circumstantial evidence that weighs against the Ramseys.

 

[Lebowski]

excellent. i appreciate all this.

 

[Lebowski]

this is probably asking way too much, but does anyone know whether the snow the night before was light and powdery? because if it was that kind of snow and got blown around, that's the only way i can picture it not still being in front of the grating and basement window at 6 AM.

i have a less clear sense of what the north side of the yard might have looked like, snow-wise. looks (at least today) like it was grassy and wooded, so probably you'd have snow-free spots under the trees, but relatively little melting. ... anyway, it doesn't seem like any reasonable entry and exit points are on that side of the house, so maybe it doesn't matter.

 

[Meara]

this is probably asking way too much, but does anyone know whether the snow the night before was light and powdery? because if it was that kind of snow and got blown around, that's the only way i can picture it not still being in front of the grating and basement window at 6 AM.

i have a less clear sense of what the north side of the yard might have looked like, snow-wise. looks (at least today) like it was grassy and wooded, so probably you'd have snow-free spots under the trees, but relatively little melting. ... anyway, it doesn't seem like any reasonable entry and exit points are on that side of the house, so maybe it doesn't matter..

Check the historical weather records I sent you; wind speed was nil, so, not enough to blow snow around. Disagree about the north side of the house. That's the location of the butler's pantry door.

 

[Lebowski]

oh yeah, i see two doors there. butler's pantry door and a storage room door.

however, i'm looking at an aerial winter shot (obviously from later years) and it shows plenty of snow coverage on the ground against that side of the house. the trees are further back than i thought and do not seem to overhang the walkway. ... that makes me think there would have been snow in front of both those doors, at least the dusting from the night before.

and iiuc, we don't have a clear accounting from the police at 6 AM that all the doors were locked, BUT we do have john saying so when they arrived. and iirc, one of the north side doors had a key under the mat, but what intruder (and rapist and murderer) locks the door again on the way out and is nice enough to put the key back? (you might imagine an intruder did this to cover their tracks and implicate the ramseys, but why bother after leaving a note and claiming to have kidnapped JB??)


ok, i'm not seeing how an intruder gets in, much less does so without leaving tracks in the snow that would have been noticed by any of the first-responding police at 6 AM who specifically checked for them. like i'm sure there are still some possibilities, but they're getting pretty contrived and not very ockham's razory.

 

[Meara]

oh yeah, i see two doors there. butler's pantry door and a storage room door.

however, i'm looking at an aerial winter shot (obviously from later years) and it shows plenty of snow coverage on the ground against that side of the house. the trees are further back than i thought and do not seem to overhang the walkway. ... that makes me think there would have been snow in front of both those doors, at least the dusting from the night before.

and iiuc, we don't have a clear accounting from the police at 6 AM that all the doors were locked, BUT we do have john saying so when they arrived. and iirc, one of the north side doors had a key under the mat, but what intruder (and rapist and murderer) locks the door again on the way out and is nice enough to put the key back? (you might imagine an intruder did this to cover their tracks and implicate the ramseys, but why bother after leaving a note and claiming to have kidnapped JB??)


ok, i'm not seeing how an intruder gets in, much less does so without leaving tracks in the snow that would have been noticed by any of the first-responding police at 6 AM who specifically checked for them. like i'm sure there are still some possibilities, but they're getting pretty contrived and not very ockham's razory.

What intruder, indeed? Yes to all of that and the razor, too.

Except the key under the doormat. I've been away from the board for a while and, coming back, see several references to this key. I've followed the case from early on and joined WS over 10 years ago, and this is the first I've heard of the key. Do you know where the info came from? Is it a detail newly discovered or disclosed by JR?

 

[Lebowski]

i don't remember where i read about any key under the doormat, and i can't find any source for it now

 

[Meara]

i don't remember where i read about any key under the doormat, and i can't find any source for it now

Okay; thanks. That tells me there wasn't one. Otherwise, JR wouldn't have needed to break in to the basement when he forgot his key (allegedly); or he would have told police about the key that morning ('We hid a key there because I kept locking myself out.'), and it would be in the case records and discussion history.

Just for myself, the real sticking point with the intruder theory isn't the snow/footprint or the spider web issue. Maybe police or the spider expert were mistaken. Maybe some quirk of nature erased the footprints or kept the web in tact. Unlikely, but we can't know with 100% certainty. The factor that can't be argued is the lack of debris from the window well. Even if an intruder had managed to break in without leaving tracks or breaking the spider web, there's no way he could have avoided dragging debris in with him. None. And there was no window well debris on the train room floor. None. And there's no evidence of a break-in anywhere else in the house.

Could an intruder have entered by sheer luck through an unlocked door? Sure. But that doesn't match with a long ransom note and a practice note, plus knowledge of the Ramseys. And how does a B&E spiral from theft to kidnap to SA and murder? Besides, who slogs around the neighborhood through the old snow and freezing cold, just hoping to find an unlocked door? Estimated TOD is 10:30 PM - 1:30 AM, when the temperature was about 5° F. In other words, although lucky access is a remote possibility, it doesn't fit into any coherent theory of the crime.

If someone outside the family killed JBR, it either had to be someone they let in or someone who had a key, and most of the latter group have been ruled out. JMO.

 

[Lebowski]

Okay; thanks. That tells me there wasn't one. Otherwise, JR wouldn't have needed to break in to the basement when he forgot his key (allegedly); or he would have told police about the key that morning ('We hid a key there because I kept locking myself out.'), and it would be in the case records and discussion history.

Just for myself, the real sticking point with the intruder theory isn't the snow/footprint or the spider web issue. Maybe police or the spider expert were mistaken. Maybe some quirk of nature erased the footprints or kept the web in tact. Unlikely, but we can't know with 100% certainty. The factor that can't be argued is the lack of debris from the window well. Even if an intruder had managed to break in without leaving tracks or breaking the spider web, there's no way he could have avoided dragging debris in with him. None. And there was no window well debris on the train room floor. None. And there's no evidence of a break-in anywhere else in the house.

Could an intruder have entered by sheer luck through an unlocked door? Sure. But that doesn't match with a long ransom note and a practice note, plus knowledge of the Ramseys. And how does a B&E spiral from theft to kidnap to SA and murder? Besides, who slogs around the neighborhood through the old snow and freezing cold, just hoping to find an unlocked door? Estimated TOD is 10:30 PM - 1:30 AM, when the temperature was about 5° F. In other words, although lucky access is a remote possibility, it doesn't fit into any coherent theory of the crime.

If someone outside the family killed JBR, it either had to be someone they let in or someone who had a key, and most of the latter group have been ruled out. JMO.

i've been convinced for a while that no intruder came in that window. for me, any possibilities of IDI rest on the intruder coming in other ways. either another window, an unlocked door, or someone had a key.

one day a few weeks ago, i read the claim about the key under the mat, and within a few minutes also read that (supposedly) the 6 AM police didn't have a record of having personally checked that every single door was locked. that got my mind going, and i started wondering if maybe there could have been an intruder after all. ... plus, it strikes me that a friend or acquaintance of the ramseys could check most of the boxes, like knowing the amount of john's bonus, knowing the dog was at the neighbors, knowing the alarm was off, knowing their way around the house, etc.

but all that has since come apart for me. apparently the key under the mat is a fairy tale. the police took a hard look at a lot of people around the ramseys without finding anyone suspicious. and i think we can take john's word for it at 6 AM that all the doors were locked. i see no reason for him to lie about it under any scenario, and if he was being truthful it seems likely he would have been careful in checking, given the circumstances.

if anyone else had keys, i assume the police would have looked especially closely at them. if there were any other viable windows, i think they would have come up. think i read somewhere that all but the broken one were locked. with an intruder you need to account for entry and exit, and even if another window was originally unlocked, an intruder can't exit through it and leave it locked.

 

[Lebowski]

though there is one intruder who absolutely entered the house that night, and he never comes up i think because people just can't bear to imagine jolly old st nicholas would have such a dark side to him

Spoiler

SCDI