LA - ***ARREST*** Mickey Shunick, 21, Lafayette 19 May 2012 - #34

[Foxfire]

Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor, Latin lex parsimoniae) is the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness. It is a principle urging one to select from among competing hypotheses that which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation of the effect. The principle is often incorrectly summarized as "other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one."

'Imo, Occam's razor has a very dull blade when considering hypotheses of a sadistical psychopathic serial sexual predator's crimes'..
Their thought processes are very complex..one hundred & eighty degrees of normal..
They are very creative, calculating, and elusive...

 

[CajunStrong]

I don't believe anyone is trying to chase anyone anywhere. We're all trying to understand what insider scoop you have and if there's any way to verify what you're saying.

Otherwise, any kickback you're getting is only because some of us feel like we're going in circles. While you have the right to your opinion, other posters also have the right to respond. The bike-under-the-truck-at-Circle-K idea has been ruled out by LE statements and pretty much discounted here based on laws of physics, etc. You have to understand.. bringing it up again 20 threads later is just frustrating. You'd probably get a similar response if you brought up the Tasha Patterson incident again.

JS.

We go round and round because y'all keep telling me that the police have ruled it out by the statements made in the press release. I believe some of those statements left a lot of grey area that has not been confirmed. Now one day we will all hopefully know but until then it is my opinion and right to feel that it has not been ruled out.


I habe not seen any type of press release that specifically states this could not have happened and I am by far not the only one that believes it. I am supportive at all y'alls opinions and I keep an open mind. I simply want the same curtesy.

 

[ERRN1313]

Just jumping in. I just Google walked the little man down St. Landry from St. Marys to the Coliseum. All I can say is "WOW". When I got to the hospital that is now abandoned, I was surprised how big it is and how large an area it covers. So desolate and so many places for an abduction to happen. Even with a guard on site, it covers such a large area, it could have happened anywhere. Abandoned hospitals are scary!! (Watched too many horror flicks). Even regular hospitals are scary at night, and I worked in them for a long time. (Guess that's why they're scary).

How ironic that the hospital security guard warned Mickey about riding there late at night if that's where the abduction occurred.

 

[Unscripted]

bbm I would be very surprised if LPD have released every pic/video of BSL's truck from that night. They will only release enough to further their investigation. As much as I would like to know everything that they know, that would not help their investigation.

Thank goodness they didn’t release 20 pictures of the DWTIQ! Imagine the mayhem that would have ensued on this thread.:bang:

Agree, LE’s purpose was to obtain help from the general public in identifying the white truck so they would have released the clearest image they had, from a location that was recognizable, in order to help jar the memories of possible witnesses.

 

[HouDat]

All of these accident pictures were of bicycle's that were hit from the rear by a truck and resulted in the rider being thrown backward into the truck. They do depict what this type of accident scene would look like. There was a story to each accident and all victims did survive and some with little injury.

OK, we covered this in an earlier thread, but I'll summarize quickly:

The "thrown backward" you reference is something which needs clarification. I agree that a person's head and shoulders would be thrown backward, provided the point of impact actually impacts the rider's body at a low enough center of gravity, IE below the body's natural fulcrum point. I've used the comparison of a football wide receiver catching a ball above his head, and then being hit from behind at a point below his waist. His torso flies backward, his feet fly forward. But relative to the spot on the field where he is hit, he does not move backward (in the direction from which the tackler came).

Same with a vehicle. X--------->>-----Y--->>-----------Z

(Arrows represent directions of travel for both the vehicle and the bike.) If "Y" represents the point of impact on the ground/street, then it is virtually impossible for the rider to fly backward toward and land closer to "X" than he/she was at the point of impact, assuming the bike is hit from behind. The head and torso may lunge in a backward motion as the feet fly forward, as we have covered. But the cyclist at point "Y" will, at the very worst, land at a spot which is parallel (to the side of) "Y".

I am not posting here on this forum to prove to you personally that this type of accident is possible. I am here to state my opinion and contribute what I can to this investigation.

All opinions and contributions are welcome, including dissenting opinions and analysis. Iron sharpens iron, and all that jazz.

It has been said that there would be blood and other debris on the roadway and I feel that these pictures state that this may not always be the case and I think I have proved my point well.

There could be blood. Or debris from the bike. Or scratch marks/scars on the pavement from there the bike was dragged (even if only slightly) upon impact. Or all of the above. It's not a hard, fast rule which says at least one of the above would be present, but the odds are highly in favor of there being some sort of evidence of a crash between a cyclist and a vehicle at or near the point where the rider and/or the bike crash to the ground...even if not visible to the naked eye. When metal rubs against concrete or asphalt, abrasion occurs. The evidence left behind may only be in the form of small metal filings, rubber, etc., but something is bound to be left behind, you can rest assured.

 

[ashola_nola]

We go round and round because y'all keep telling me that the police have ruled it out by the statements made in the press release. I believe some of those statements left a lot of grey area that has not been confirmed. Now one day we will all hopefully know but until then it is my opinion and right to feel that it has not been ruled out.


I habe not seen any type of press release that specifically states this could not have happened and I am by far not the only one that believes it. I am supportive at all y'alls opinions and I keep an open mind. I simply want the same curtesy.

Okay, I will courteously keep my thoughts to myself about opinions I don't agree with.

BUT - WILL YOU PLEASE RESPOND TO THE FIRST PART OF MY POST? What is the source of your insider information?

 

[redhairedgirl]

Could this be an example of a possibility of why Brandon Scott Lavergne, had a bandage/cast on his hand?
Also Gary Hilton; serial killer gave up the location of Meredith Emerson's remains in exchange for taking the death penalty off the table.



MEREDITH EMERSON FOUGHT FOR HER LIFE
http://crime.about.com/b/2008/03/24/meredith-emerson-fought-hard-to-survive.htm

Mar 28, 2008 – Gary Michael Hilton acknowledged that Meredith Emerson nearly overpowered him when ... Mountain, she never once gave up fighting Hilton and never made it easy for him. ...

*Hilton said his hand was broken by the blows.

Gary Michael Hilton confessed to the GBI that he killed and ... Blackening both of her eyes and probably breaking her nose, but Emerson continued to fight back. ... "That's the one thing that broke my heart in this case," GBI agent Clay Bridges ... The blood of so many are equally on the hands of the corrupt

Did I miss something? Where was it said that BSL had a cast or bandages on his hand? I know the reported asked at the presser if he had a bite mark on his hand, but never anything about why she asked that question. TIA:fence:

 

[CajunStrong]

Also - if she/her bike had indeed been hit right there across the street from Circle K, wouldn't at least ONE of the citizens there in the parking lot have seen or heard this? From what I understand, such collisions are not usually quiet and neat. I would hope that someone would have come forward on their own, but if not, wouldn't LE have made a bigger deal about identifying and questioning those "Circle K citizens" as witnesses? (Identifying them would have been pretty easy to do.)

Now who is to say they did not?

 

[MLE]

Umm...a couple pages back someone did post, saying they hoped if there was any such video if would be released. I was thinking "would you really want to watch that? Why?!"

I think 99% of us on here, including myself, have a morbid curiosity about this case and others on this website. However, I can see how the video could actually be informative and instructive. If Mickey Shunick had seen a video of a bicyclist being rear ended and kidnapped, perhaps she would've done things differently or could've had a better defensive game plan.

 

[Unscripted]

And y'all have missed some potential connections between Tasha Patterson and Brandon. Now again, only my opinion but I don't believe this to be their first connection. I have my own cajunnet and we all wondered why it was hushed up so fast.

Did Tasha ID BSL?

Do you recall when you learned the search dogs might have hit on MS’s scent near ULL Printing Services on Coliseum Road or by the footbridge over the coulee behind the building?

 

[HouDat]

Translation Lavergne asked" Ummm, by the way, did you happen to see me torching my house to cover up evidence from my latest violent sex crime?"

http://theadvocate.com/news/3290776-123/neighbors-shocked-by-arrest-mom

That's got to be a bit unnerving for that lady. Let's assume, for the sake of this discussion, that BSL was the one who'd burned the house down. What if she'd answered "yes"? Would he have then killed her?

Why did he burn his house down? Evidence of another crime? (I am speculating that he burned his house down.)

We don't know for sure that he did, but if he did, then I would certainly hedge my bets on that being the reason why.

 

[megsy]

Okay, I will courteously keep my thoughts to myself about opinions I don't agree with.

BUT - WILL YOU PLEASE RESPOND TO THE FIRST PART OF MY POST? What is the source of your insider information?

I would also like someone to tell me definitively if the Versailles camera was found to be 12 minutes off in time. Thanks!

 

[chicken fried]

BBL.

Maybe when I come back I will know what are facts and what are opinions.

 

[Boudin]

There is no mailing address for the communities of Swords, LA, or Lawtell, LA, for that matter. Their mailing addresses are Church Point and Opelousas, respectively. The address is 143 Elaine Ln in Church Point. Did you listen to the audio of BSL? The judge verifies his address. It's the right house.

Well then they have been searching the wrong place.
Lafayette Police Dept along with St Landry Sheriffs Dept have been searching the home & surroundings. The town of Churchpoint is in Acadia parish, not St. Landry
My understanding is BSL has a PO Box mailing address.
The physical address for where his home is may be Elaine Lane in Churchpoint. Some people close to Prairie Ronde have Opelousas addresses and they are miles out of Opelousas.
Look on mapquest.com and you should see Lawtell to the left of Opelousas on Hwy 190, further west is Swords. Between them look for Jessie B Rd and head south. Elaine lane is one of the little streets off of Jessie B.

 

[courtneyb]

OK, we covered this in an earlier thread, but I'll summarize quickly:

The "thrown backward" you reference is something which needs clarification. I agree that a person's head and shoulders would be thrown backward, provided the point of impact actually impacts the rider's body at a low enough center of gravity, IE below the body's natural fulcrum point. I've used the comparison of a football wide receiver catching a ball above his head, and then being hit from behind at a point below his waist. His torso flies backward, his feet fly forward. But relative to the spot on the field where he is hit, he does not move backward (in the direction from which the tackler came).

Same with a vehicle. X--------->>-----Y--->>-----------Z

(Arrows represent directions of travel for both the vehicle and the bike.) If "Y" represents the point of impact on the ground/street, then it is virtually impossible for the rider to fly backward toward and land closer to "X" than he/she was at the point of impact, assuming the bike is hit from behind. The head and torso may lunge in a backward motion as the feet fly forward, as we have covered. But the cyclist at point "Y" will, at the very worst, land at a spot which is parallel (to the side of) "Y".



All opinions and contributions are welcome, including dissenting opinions and analysis. Iron sharpens iron, and all that jazz.



There could be blood. Or debris from the bike. Or scratch marks/scars on the pavement from there the bike was dragged (even if only slightly) upon impact. Or all of the above. It's not a hard, fast rule which says at least one of the above would be present, but the odds are highly in favor of there being some sort of evidence of a crash between a cyclist and a vehicle at or near the point where the rider and/or the bike crash to the ground...even if not visible to the naked eye. When metal rubs against concrete or asphalt, abrasion occurs. The evidence left behind may only be in the form of small metal filings, rubber, etc., but something is bound to be left behind, you can rest assured.

Right.. CajunStrong,
So, a person could be hit from behind, but would move forward, WITH THE TRUCK, PAST THE POINT OF IMPACT, and could end up wherever, on hood, next to, behind the truck, if you even want to say that, but BOTH the truck and the victim would have to be in a position FORWARD from the point of impact. Both bike and truck couldn't have stopped on a dime AT the point of impact, as would have had to happen, if you base your opinions on the pictures of the truck and Mickey on bike in front of Circle K.

 

[CajunStrong]

Please don't think I trying to dispute you on anything you are saying. I am new on here so I wouldn't presume to have any better opinion than anyone else without cold hard facts. My thinking, though, is that if she had been hit in front of the station, there would have been witnesses. I may be wrong but wasn't there people at the gas sation? I just think it would be hard, especially at that time of night with so little traffic, for one of them not to notice if that happened in that area. Once again, I'm not arguing against your point. There may be info that I haven't heard or seen as I am still trying to catch up with everything, being new on here and all.

Thank you for your question and for posing as so. There have been hundreds of people talked to by the police. Others have noticed what appears to be a man running towards the station. Perhaps he did witness it and told the clerk or even called the police. We don't know. There have been such rumors but no confirmation. Or perhaps there were witnesses that just didnt do anything. In our culture it has become the norm to mind your own business.

However this is one reason I at first doubted that she could have been hit here. Then other things have led me back.

 

[337RAM]

Now who is to say they did not?

People talk and gossip a lot, there would have been atleast 2 eye witnesses and up to 4 or 6 , with that many sets of eyes and the way people talk I would think someone would of spilled the beans by now around here locally

 

[megsy]

Right.. CajunStrong,
So, a person could be hit from behind, but would move forward, WITH THE TRUCK, PAST THE POINT OF IMPACT, and could end up wherever, on hood, next to, behind the truck, if you even want to say that, but BOTH the truck and the victim would have to be in a position FORWARD from the point of impact. Both bike and truck couldn't have stopped on a dime AT the point of impact, as would have had to happen, if you base your opinions on the pictures of the truck and Mickey on bike in front of Circle K.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

 

[KateB]

I believe that was the University camera

You can see the two pictures released by LPD here, along with the adjusted time stamps.

http://www.lafayettela.gov/upload/images/Police/PressReleases/Picture 1.jpg
http://www.lafayettela.gov/upload/images/Police/PressReleases/Picture 3.jpg

I am unaware of the Versailles picture being off by any amount of time and based on the name of the file containing (0147) and the fact that LPD press release says this exactly, I'm going to assume that 1:47 and 1:48 are the times we're going with?:

Yes, this is the 12 minute variance that is known. Thanks for clearing up which camera that was.

 

[CajunStrong]

bbm

I would be very surprised if LPD have released every pic/video of BSL's truck from that night. They will only release enough to further their investigation. As much as I would like to know everything that they know, that would not help their investigation.

It would have when they were desperately trying to identify this truck. They released pictures of the hooptie, another truck with a bed cover and even a possibly different truck going in the opposite direction. It is not a fact but I firmly believe they released all that they had. It would have also served in helping to find witnesses that could identify the truck in potential dumping locations. Now they may have since obtained more video evidence but I think they released all they had at the time.