LA - Mickey Shunick, 21, Lafayette, 19 May 2012 - #16

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  • #821
It's an excellent theory, IMOm chicken. Inflated objects in water don't remain stationary. So if the front tire held air, it's reasonable to conclude the location site was a destination, with the point of origin being elsewhere. What do you know of the currents that would help us work backward to an origination point?

Flying by the seat of my pants.... did you just look at the 3 new links, including the one called "drop site"

That's my prediction.

My only knowledge of currents is my little boat and how I've seen water act, and it's physics.

Look at the Drop Site link at the tail end of Pg. 33//
 
  • #822
New article from The Advertiser includes an interesting new admission:

Image in front of Circle K "and another shot of the truck that has not been released were used to definitively identify the vehicle." Wow -- sounds like that truck might indeed have shown up on either one of those cameras further down St. Landry or the LCG lot.

Hope the link works -- first time I've tried this here.

http://www.theadvertiser.com/article/20120601/NEWS01/206010332/Police-continue-search-white-pickup-driver?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE&nclick_check=1

i knew there were more pics, but i wonder if they mean they positively identified the model, or the exact truck... it would have been easy to track or backtrack this truck in my opinion...

truck goes in but doesnt come out means...

he left another way
he got to his destination

either could have been easily verified by reviewing footage of different days on the video, or reviewing possible exit routes on other cams... these folks are moving very slowly... makes me wonder where their attention has been focused... I am guessing because it is just a missing person case that maybe they don't have the resources they need...

tip... you don't have to be law enforcement to ask someone if you can review their security footage... people are generally cooperative in that area... unless they were told not to by LE...

goodnight...

ps... i was thinking about the possibility of the human trafficking theory... the thought of a house somewhere full of teen runaways, drug addicts, misfits, and an accidental college student with a higher education (possibly some psychology) than everyone else in the house... gives me hope, she will get away... maybe it is in fact HER that will save someone else's little girls...
just a little hope for the end of a long day

peace
 
  • #823
I can absolutely follow you on your theory here -- it's perfectly logical. Of course, the tragic offshoot to the theory, though, which gives me a somber feeling, is that if someone dropped a weighted body in that area, there's a very high probability that it will never be found, unless they managed to get sonar right on top of it.

Yes, me too. Makes me sad. If the bike was found where the scattered "facts" seem to say it was found, I think the police are already thinking the same way I am :-(

Bummer.
 
  • #824
Re: the truck... it's possible that the other truck photo wasn't very good... and maybe helped ID only one feature.... like the second blurry car pic was good for nothing except it showed the rear side-marker light that was the clincher , at least for me and JBiggoose, that it was an Olds 98.
 
  • #825
Reading through everything and thinking of the different scenarios in which she could have disappeared has chilled me to the bone. It's 4:50am and I've yet to sleep. Too much evil in this world.
 
  • #826
Reading through everything and thinking of the different scenarios in which she could have disappeared has chilled me to the bone. It's 4:50am and I've yet to sleep. Too much evil in this world.

Sad...it just weighs on me... and this whole town. It's affected everyone, I think, who has a heart.
 
  • #827
The key to my theory is how the channel bends. Stuff in the water tends to collect there. The interesting coincidence is that if I think like a perp, and don't want to be seen from a camp, I pass the last camp, but don't want to get too close to the bridge... that puts the drop spot in the exact place it needs to be to wash up at the bridge and give a last testament to Mickey's fate.

Karma. He thought the bike would sink.


That and he likely didnt count on her bike being found,,,,at least for a while.
 
  • #828
  • #829
The key to my theory is how the channel bends. Stuff in the water tends to collect there. The interesting coincidence is that if I think like a perp, and don't want to be seen from a camp, I pass the last camp, but don't want to get too close to the bridge... that puts the drop spot in the exact place it needs to be to wash up at the bridge and give a last testament to Mickey's fate.

Karma. He thought the bike would sink.

That and he likely didnt count on her bike being found,,,,at least for a while.

He didn't count on it's being found at all. It probably sank down and he saw it go, but only went down 10 feet, and slowly started coming back up.... probably not until it was too far downstream for him to notice.
 
  • #830
How far away from the camera was she likely hit? Any guesses?
 
  • #831
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/missing-university-louisiana-student-mickey-shunick-hit-run-16457266
Cpl Mouton in the video (at 40 seconds) says that they strongly feel the perp drove down to the edge of the water and dumped the bike. It is hard to build theories that stray to far from that IMO.

Yes, I saw that. But that looks like a little spot that a lot of people go ... look at the graffiti. Maybe they didn't think of it floating downstream. I know they're good, but sometimes a theory just doesn't present itself right away.

They were IDing that car as a '90s model.
 
  • #832
Sad...it just weighs on me... and this whole town. It's affected everyone, I think, who has a heart.

I agree -- the whole tone across Lafayette has been radically different these past 2 weeks. I think just about everyone can feel the tension.

Does knowing the truck appears on at least one more camera make you feel more confident about your parking lot/Azalea St theory, Chicken? It stands to reason that the other camera shot almost certainly came from either that camera that also caught the Olds 98 the second time or a camera in the lot. If so, either of those would seem to rule out the Brashear route. Granted, that's still speculation, but it gives us a little more to think about...
 
  • #833
This is going to sound a bit cynical, I guess, but if they couldn't ID the car, maybe they couldn't figure out the flotation provided by the front tire, either.
 
  • #834
He didn't count on it's being found at all. It probably sank down and he saw it go, but only went down 10 feet, and slowly started coming back up.... probably not until it was too far downstream for him to notice.

chicken, I think you are right. If he didn't bank on the bike surfacing and didn't bank on the vid cameras capturing him he just may get nervous enough to slip to someone about what happened.
 
  • #835
I agree -- the whole tone across Lafayette has been radically different these past 2 weeks. I think just about everyone can feel the tension.

Does knowing the truck appears on at least one more camera make you feel more confident about your parking lot/Azalea St theory, Chicken? It stands to reason that the other camera shot almost certainly came from either that camera that also caught the Olds 98 the second time or a camera in the lot. If so, either of those would seem to rule out the Brashear route. Granted, that's still speculation, but it gives us a little more to think about...


Great thought. I'm too tired to look up the camera locations again. Need to make a map for everyone. I'll save your post and reply tomorrow(today) I want to check Google Earth...
 
  • #836
Re - the tension.... I have noticed that some younger women (20s-30s) in the stores now hardly return your greeting. Usually there's an occasional bit of small talk as shoppers maneuver around one another. People are friendly in Lafayette, But I've seen quite a few women just closed down to interaction with men they don't know. Sucks what this has done to our community.
 
  • #837
Great thought. I'm too tired to look up the camera locations again. Need to make a map for everyone. I'll save your post and reply tomorrow(today) I want to check Google Earth...

Have a good one.

One last thing I want to mention in case I forget, since I'm not sure how long I'll be able to log on tomorrow: There is an old gun-style camera at the very end of Azalea where it meets University, on the end of that strip of buildings that runs up and down University, across Azalea from the northeast corner of the the LCG complex. If we're thinking this could have been a hit and run and cover up on Azalea after she cut through the lot, I hope to God LE has thought to get a hold of that camera's footage from 1:48am or so that morning. If it was on and recording, it should have picked up any vehicle that might have turned from University onto Azalea there. I hadn't even thought of this possibility until just a while ago, but there is definitely a camera right there -- saw it today (yesterday) afternoon. Unfortunately, it isn't angled very far down Azalea, from what I could tell, so it couldn't have picked up something happening down by the west parking lot itself.
 
  • #838
I sure hope LE got on the ball soon enough to check on all those cameras!

Have a good one.

One last thing I want to mention in case I forget, since I'm not sure how long I'll be able to log on tomorrow: There is an old gun-style camera at the very end of Azalea where it meets University, on the end of that strip of buildings that runs up and down University, across Azalea from the northeast corner of the the LCG complex. If we're thinking this could have been a hit and run and cover up on Azalea after she cut through the lot, I hope to God LE has thought to get a hold of that camera's footage from 1:48am or so that morning. If it was on and recording, it should have picked up any vehicle that might have turned from University on Azalea there. I hadn't even thought of this possibility until just a while ago, but there is definitely a camera right there -- saw it today (yesterday) afternoon. Unfortunately, it isn't angled very far down Azalea, from what I could tell, so it couldn't have picked up something happening down by the west parking lot itself.
 
  • #839
I have no ideas about the possible involvement of RM but I am very skeptical that this was an accident. Rear ending a bicycle at night would be unusual because directly in the path of the vehicle is the place that an object would be clearly visible. Of course, if he were drunk or not paying attention, anything is possible.

If the bicycle were hit squarely from behind, what would happen would be that the bicycle would accelerate to the speed of the vehicle while the rider would continue moving forward at the speed she was riding. Hand grips might come off in her hands. Within a fraction of a second, the front of the vehicle; probably the grill, would hit the rider in the back and probably the back of the head. The rider would then either roll up on the hood or, with a large pick-up with a high front grill, drop under the vehicle and be run over. The front bumper would probably pick up some transfer from the bike but otherwise be undamaged. The grill and/or headlights, however, would almost certainly receive some damage.
The rider would probably not suffer heavy bleeding but there would be some cuts and abrasions. There would be some blood at the scene. The bigger indication of the accident would be debris. Plastic and glass would scatter as well as contents of her knapsack and possibly articles of clothing. The bike might travel 20 to 30 feet forward. The riders injuries would include closed head injury and possibly internal bleeding which would both be life threatening but would probably not be fatal instantly. Most deaths from head injuries result from the swelling of the brain due to gradual bleeding. This can take hours or even days.

Most likely, the driver would be confronted with a seriously injured girl, a damaged bike and a certain amount of debris. If he isn't going to confront the consequences of his action and call 911 or go to the Circle K for help, just taking off, the standard Hit & Run is the obvious course of action.

The decision to collect the injured girl, the bike and all of the debris would take precious time that anyone might come along and see it. More importantly however, even if the rider were dead, the driver, who I would assume had no medical training, would not be certain. Even a drunken sociopath would understand the implication of taking a seriously injured rider and dumping her body somewhere to die: he would go from vehicular manslaughter (at worst) to First Degree Murder. Someone might take this route if they had a chance to think it all out, but on the fly? Never.

Now, he could claim he was transporting her to the hospital, but he "panicked" when she was DOA, but why would he have taken the bike as well? It will not fly, but it might be a desperate ploy at his trial.

I am quite sure this was deliberate "bump and grab" sexually motivated attack.
Somehow, I find 19 to be very young for this sort of attack. Using a vehicle as weapon seems like something someone who wasn't real confident of their physical strength might pull. I'm sure we will be finding out more soon enough.

I agree with you and said the same about a drunk trying to pick up and injured Mickey, her bike, and scattered debris, all while not being seen. I don't think so! As for hitting her deliberately, which I think was mostly likely the case, if their were [/i]two[/i] guys and she was riding in the right lane, all they'd have to do is open the passenger door while passing her and knock her down, or just serve into her. Much less messy and in a minute she'd be down and they could grab her.

I HATE thinking about this stuff. I hate putting MY mind in the twisted space of a predator.
 
  • #840
Lights out!
 
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