LA - Mickey Shunick, 21, Lafayette, 19 May 2012 - #16

[concernedformickey]

From what I read, it had a drum-style brake in rear that enthusiasts remove. Darn, lost the link.

They are then left with only a front brake? What happens when they break suddenly?

 

[perpetual curiosity]

'HERE is a Google-Earth photo of the Whiskey Bay area, with the waterways labeled. Check the bend upstream. It looks subtle, but with a large mass of water, that bend has a bigger effect than you'd think.

Look at my possible DROP SITE and path for the bike.

I saw it, and thank you. I don't have the experience with that type of waterway and it's 'behavior', so to speak, to determine the efeects of the bend. The fact that the bike and the grips were found separately in the same area, had me assuming that the site was approached by land, rather than waterway; but, you could be spot on about everything collecting there in a bend. The police did state that there was other "trash" in the area.

 

[Unscripted]

The water looks low and calm yesterday morning before that storm front blew through:

29 Pictures of Whiskey Bay Exit from May 31st, 2012:

http://www.theadvertiser.com/articl...sey=tab|topnews|text|frontpage&nclick_check=1

If you can't access the Whiskey Bay pictures directly they can be viewed via the Twitter link from yesterday:

http://twitter.com/#!/tdamcelfresh

 

[chicken fried]

What camp is up there? I can't read what you wrote in red.

All those white specks on the left bank are humble little fishing camps. This time of year, they get used. Beginning about pg. 33 I theorized a daytime drop - actually less attention-gathering than a night drop. He wouldn't have dropped until past the last camp -circled in red.

 

[PapiGogo]

Whiskey Bay Pilot Channel at I10 May 21, 2011 - YouTube

Does anyone know if this has been posted or discussed yet? Apparently this was recorded the Monday after the disappearance. I happened across it while researching the river and possible conditions. If the theory of dumping anything here by boat is correct, it's hard to imagine not having to run half the boat up on the bank to remain still long enough to dump the bike. If dumped upstream, what's the chances that the bike and the grips would all separately wash up in the same area?

edit: oops! ignore the part about the date...I'm off about a year..LOL

These are abnormal conditions for the Atchafalaya River. The current was strong last year because of the high water levels caused by the rain fall and snow melt. If you remember, New Orleans actually opened the locks and flooded the delta region; Baton Rouge levees were a few feet from being breached.

Bottom line: the condition of the waters in that video are not at all similar to the conditions of the waters now.

 

[mamamia54]

They are then left with only a front brake? What happens when they break suddenly?

Seems to me that the backend of the bike would pick up and flip the rider.

 

[AWOLNATION]

The truck def has a distinguishing feature...a dark colored fuel door. Possibly Chrome. Is that an added dealer detail?

anybody can buy those gas covers, sometimes they are even a stick on material, sold at Autozone, Pepboys, and even walmart...pretty cheap things

 

[chicken fried]

Here's another photo dated 5/27 from Daily Advertiser ... you can see the 'boat ramp' sign in the photo:

Yes, and that photo is at the tiny WEST ramp - into the Pilot Channel. I need better confirmation from the reporter. They were likely searching BOTH ramps, and so that photo may or may not help.

 

[HouDat]

Here's another photo dated 5/27 from Daily Advertiser ... you can see the 'boat ramp' sign in the photo:

Correct. I believe that to be a "-->" (right arrow, mostly obscured by the sign in the direct line-of-sight to the photographer who snapped the photo) beneath the text on the sign.

ETA: Confirmed via Google Maps Street View. Right-facing arrow.

Which aligns perfectly with the river being situated off-camera, to the left of that shot; and with that area being well in excess of 2500' from the water's edge at the boat ramp.

For orientation purpose, this shot appears to have been snapped a couple hundred feet to the south of I-10, facing in a generally northern direction.

 

[chicken fried]

There is a white truck right there in the picture, is that a Z 71? And even if it's not, who uses those trucks around town, say that one with the ladder in the back end.

Everyone uses them. That's the problem. Most common truck in Lafayette.

 

[Creole Sleuth]

There is a white truck right there in the picture, is that a Z 71? And even if it's not, who uses those trucks around town, say that one with the ladder in the back end.

That's not a ladder. It's the ramps for the ATV. So many of these trucks around here. It's crazy.....everywhere you look there is one.

 

[concernedformickey]

If she turned left onto Brashear and then headed toward St Mary on Cherry St That would have pit her near there and missed the cameras. There is a plave some locals eat on the street by that lot that serves some fresh local food she probably has gone to and may habe been aware of a way to cut to the bike bath or coliseum rd from there.However the quickest and fastest way would have been to stay on St Landry.

Has this path been searched? It's not an unreasonable path.

 

[chicken fried]

They are then left with only a front brake? What happens when they break suddenly?

Bike probably has pinch brakes on both tires + the drum.... remove the drum and you still have both pich brakes.

I'm out of my depth. More research on the Schwinn whatever it is is needed. I read that a common mod is to remove the rear drum brake to save weight.

 

[Foxfire]

A recent case involving an admitted predator that was arrested in MS for driving a stolen white Z71 truck, peeked my curiousity as to how preferred the Z71 is among car thieves. (The claims admitted too by the MS car thief were never verified by LE).



http://news.pickuptrucks.com/2012/02/most-stolen-vehicles-of-2011-.html
3. Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Crew Cab

Like a rock, some thieves are still staying true to domestic-made vehicles even as we near the top three most stolen vehicles of 2011. Almost 10 Silverado half-tons out of 1,000 were stolen in 2011, with an average repair cost under $5,000.

 

[crzimmer]

I am having a devil of a time finding the weight of a Cutter. Oddly, the spec sheet at Schwinn does not show weights as far as I can see. I could be missing it. A review of the 2008 model says the weight is "26.75 lbs (without pedals)".

 

[TexasLil]

Hypothetical Math here but...

The distance between the bank cam and the St. Landry cam is roughly 1850 feet. If it took Mickey about a minute between camera shots she was going roughly 21mph.

If the truck passed the St. Landry camera about 1 min after Mickey (assuming it travelled 35mph) it would have been about 939 feet behind her.

Doing the math and assuming Mickey likely varied speeds I calculated the amount of time it would have taken the truck to catch up to Mickey and assumed she continued down Landry at 18-21 mph average.

I've marked the area on the on the map in which the truck would have caught up to her on the bicycle assuming it travelled 35mph and no stops.

Does anyone know if the nursery/greenhouse at the corner of St. Landry and Colliseum is still actively used?

 

[chicken fried]

I saw it, and thank you. I don't have the experience with that type of waterway and it's 'behavior', so to speak, to determine the efeects of the bend. The fact that the bike and the grips were found separately in the same area, had me assuming that the site was approached by land, rather than waterway; but, you could be spot on about everything collecting there in a bend. The police did state that there was other "trash" in the area.

That's my point. It was an odd thing for the police to say - that the bike was submerged and surrounded by trash. That matches my scenario perfectly. The bike, after all, was trash, too. It all collects at certain places after bends.

 

[chicken fried]

Correct. I believe that to be a "-->" (right arrow, mostly obscured by the sign in the direct line-of-sight to the photographer who snapped the photo) beneath the text on the sign.

ETA: Confirmed via Google Maps Street View. Right-facing arrow.

Which aligns perfectly with the river being situated off-camera, to the left of that shot; and with that area being well in excess of 2500' from the water's edge at the boat ramp.

For orientation purpose, this shot appears to have been snapped a couple hundred feet to the south of I-10, facing in a generally northern direction.

Exactly what I think - but it's a left arrow on the sign, not right. The boat ramp access would be to the left.

 

[T3kt3hgrrl]

Hypothetical Math here but...

The distance between the bank cam and the St. Landry cam is roughly 1850 feet. If it took Mickey about a minute between camera shots she was going roughly 21mph.

If the truck passed the St. Landry camera about 1 min after Mickey (assuming it travelled 35mph) it would have been about 939 feet behind her.

Doing the math and assuming Mickey likely varied speeds I calculated the amount of time it would have taken the truck to catch up to Mickey and assumed she continued down Landry at 18-21 mph average.

I've marked the area on the on the map in which the truck would have caught up to her on the bicycle assuming it travelled 35mph and no stops.

Does anyone know if the nursery/greenhouse at the corner of St. Landry and Colliseum is still actively used?

Yes, all of that is still active. I believe that belongs to the ULL horticulture concentration.

 

[Boudin]

'HERE is a Google-Earth photo of the Whiskey Bay area, with the waterways labeled. Check the bend upstream. It looks subtle, but with a large mass of water, that bend has a bigger effect than you'd think.

Look at my possible DROP SITE and path for the bike.

I dont have the time to follow all the bike stuff however I was told by someone from here that knows the waterways here pretty well that the water level was down about 4 feet from when she disappeared to the bike being found.