LA - Mickey Shunick, 21, Lafayette, 19 May 2012 - #7

[Bzarektah36]

And now, post number 2. Few and far between, I know. I really appreciate all the thanks on my first post way back on page #2 on this MS thread; it has 45 likes as of this writing, and apparently, that’s a lot here. Thanks guys! Since then, we’ve learned a lot of new information regarding this case, and at the same time, I believe we’ve been thrown way off tilt by the sheer gravity and nationwide notoriety that Mickey’s case has brought about. I think that many people are waiting on edge so much for the next step that they are completely overlooking the full picture and grandeur of the case in its entirety. It’s easy to lose track of things in the murky haze of every single stripped down and rehashed bit of information we are given; especially if you are taking everything to be concrete and not expecting the unexpected. When the unexpected, ultimately, is the base for the untimely events led to Mickey’s disappearance in the first place. I won’t say that I’m not a victim of the very same glitches in thought that I speak of. It’s completely natural when you are left with mere scraps of the puzzle to rack your brain and speculate over. It’s only human to concentrate on what’s missing instead of using what’s there to generate the entire picture. The little that we have to go on is actually a lot, when given the right perspective. And it’s never as simple as the who, what, where, when, and why.

On this forum, for the most part, we’re all simple, speculatively concerned civilians. But we are lacking all the professionally gathered facts of the case. Therefore, we all have to work off a different (and much more complicated) equation than we would be if we were privy to all the information that the lead detectives have on the case. We’re merely thrown bones of information here and there but they only seem to lead to more confusion as the media (both official and social) have different spins on everything we’re told. But, understandably, LE simply cannot divulge sensitive details of an open case to the general public that may hinder the investigation; which, ironically, tends to spawn over speculation as to why a certain piece of information was given and others weren’t. This whole thing has been causing fear and discomfort throughout the community of Lafayette since day one. Granted, it’s also brought many people together on a genuinely high level of unprecedented care, but the gravity of the circumstance seems to outweigh it tenfold.

There are so many things that continue to bug me about the case, that reading you guys theories has been keeping me distracted during the day and awake at night as I stare wide eyed at my monitor trying to sift facts, heresy, probabilities’, semantics, and clues through a tightly woven net of logic in hopes of reaching that ever so holy moment of clarity where everything is suddenly revealed to me and I can let someone know exactly what happened that night and where Mickey (hopefully alive) is. But thus far, it hasn’t come. As I’m sure everyone here does, I wish to myself that I knew what the lead detectives know. Above most, I wish that I had a copy of the FBI profiler’s report on this case. There hasn’t been much talk about the actual profile of the would-be abductor. Sure, you can make a general assessment, but it’s the minute details that generally lead to the discovery and subsequent capture of the suspect. As I stated in my very first post and still believe: when you rule out (easily at this point) BW, hit-and-run scenarios, and willing abandonment by MS, it’s either spontaneous or planned abduction. And of those two, I still believe this was a planned abduction, and the clues and information we’ve been given since my last post only help to support that scenario.

The discovery of the bike only leads to more twisted paths of speculation on multiple levels. We haven’t been given much to go on from LE besides the fact that it is certainly hers and the general area of its discovery. The talk here back and forth about DTL is good brain candy, and helps put more perspective on things, but as another local user put it loosely, the basin/swamplands are pretty much textbook locations in this area for something you want to have lost. And if you asked a local here, chances are, these locations would be high on their list of places to hide evidence of a heinous crime. It’s almost too general. Too obvious. Sort of like the staple “big scary white truck” that everyone has around here. This suspect has used one of the most common local truck models to abduct a commonly known (and loved) local female and then apparently stashed what could be referred to as the main piece of evidence at a commonly used local dumping ground that resides directly under the local interstate. The common denominator of all this, obviously, being “local”. It takes a keen knowledge of the layout of downtown Lafayette and the Saints Streets to follow someone on bike through them in a large truck at nearly 2am without being noticed as a shadow. It’s eerie to think about a possible kidnapper/killer living in your city, but it almost certainly seems like the case here. His knowledge of her whereabouts, her routes, even his possible knowledge of the fact that they were only going to Taco Bell, and would be shortly back, is gut twisting. But they all point to the strong possibility of this being a home grown crime committed with a sense of local precision.

There are still a ridiculous amount of unanswered questions, and I don’t think many of us will fully rest until they are answered. I for one haven’t been sleeping well at all. So please, everyone, keep up the wonderful work on this MS Websleuth’s forum by providing your own perspectives, views, and what seems to be the largest factor thus far in the case: local participation.

And I still just hope that MS’s family and friends find some sort of closure somewhere in this ordeal. And if at all possible, I genuinely hope that MS is still okay as you and I read this right now.

All that preceded were my own opinions.​

 

[chicken fried]

Hi folks:

First time/short time, etc. I've read thru most of the 7 (!) pages here, and there's some really clever sleuthing going on. Kudos, boys and girls.

Regarding the events of the last ~36 hours, some random thoughts and observations:

-the "partially submerged" reported status of the bicycle, if accurate, tells me either a) that the tires had not been deflated, and likely kept the bicycle partially buoyant; or b) that the cycle was in shallow water near the shore. A near-shore dump-off might be more indicative of a dump from land at grade level, as opposed to a dump-over from atop the overpass.

I would assume that the CSI folks tested the bike for various things such as residues, etc. And undoubtedly the partial submersion of the bike resulted in a rinsing away of tell-tale substances, such as mace...but even the slightest trace of mace would likely be indicative of a struggle.

I also have to believe, as others have mentioned here, that the mother's statement of belief of the occurrence of an accident would seem to indicate that she was aware of some damage to the bicycle. And that, combined with this apparent confirmation of a watery resting point of the bike, this would likely rule out the damage having been caused by a fall from the bridge overhead. Which would mean that her bike was indeed damaged by a vehicle.

A big, obvious question now is: why? Was there indeed an accident? Or was she diabolically run down? Shouldn't there be at least some sort of damage to a vehicle involved?

And, of course, the biggest question: where is Mickey?

Were the bike dumped over the right guardrail of I-10 just past the exit, it would land in a foot or so of water, if the water is where I think it is.

"Partially submerged" fits this to a "T."

And, welcome! I'm a newbie, too.

 

[Secrett]

Hi folks:

First time/short time, etc. I've read thru most of the 7 (!) pages here, and there's some really clever sleuthing going on. Kudos, boys and girls.

Regarding the events of the last ~36 hours, some random thoughts and observations:

-the "partially submerged" reported status of the bicycle, if accurate, tells me either a) that the tires had not been deflated, and likely kept the bicycle partially buoyant; or b) that the cycle was in shallow water near the shore. A near-shore dump-off might be more indicative of a dump from land at grade level, as opposed to a dump-over from atop the overpass.

I would assume that the CSI folks tested the bike for various things such as residues, etc. And undoubtedly the partial submersion of the bike resulted in a rinsing away of tell-tale substances, such as mace...but even the slightest trace of mace would likely be indicative of a struggle.

I also have to believe, as others have mentioned here, that the mother's statement of belief of the occurrence of an accident would seem to indicate that she was aware of some damage to the bicycle. And that, combined with this apparent confirmation of a watery resting point of the bike, this would likely rule out the damage having been caused by a fall from the bridge overhead. Which would mean that her bike was indeed damaged by a vehicle.

A big, obvious question now is: why? Was there indeed an accident? Or was she diabolically run down? Shouldn't there be at least some sort of damage to a vehicle involved?

And, of course, the biggest question: where is Mickey?

Welcome to websleuths, HouDat! and to everyone else I've missed, there's been a lot of new members with this case. Here's hoping for a safe return of Mickey.

:wagon:

 

[mamamia54]

Here's a link to a good Google Earth view of the Whiskey Bay area

Ok, now I need to go back and edit my first post on this thread lol. Thank you.

 

[Woe.be.gone]

And you do not even have to bump someone with a car to get them off their bike. Al you really need to do is GRAB THEM or SHOVE THEM. It is actually very simple to do. I was amazed to see how easy it was when I saw a video fo some bike thieves who were stealing expensive mountain bikes right out from under riders. Bicyclists are incredibly vulnerable to someone walking by them.

All you need to do is give them a good hard forceful shove at their shoulders and they will almost always tip over.

If you drive very close to them, coming from behind, you may cause the front tire to hit the curb thus knocking the rider off balance. They will fly off their bike but the bike will stay and land at the curb. You could then load the bike and then quickly grab the injured bicyclist. Or offer to take them somewhere to tend to their injuries.

That would depend on the lane MS had been riding in. She looked to be in the lane going with traffic in the last known image taken of her.

 

[Rougelatete]

I've been trying to keep up with the swiftly moving threads and apologize in advance if this has already been discussed but I wanted to throw it out there on the off-chance it hasn't been yet.

One of the vehicles, a white pickup truck, was immediately recognized by Tasha Patterson, a Lafayette woman who said she was approached two months ago by the vehicle while riding her bike and the driver, a middle-aged white man, offered her a ride and then asked her to have sex with him for money.
“He says he rides around town all the time trying to pick up pretty girls,” Patterson told ABC News affiliate KATC, although it’s unclear whether she accepted the ride.

Has anyone gone through the Louisiana mugshots to see if there is a person who might match this description with 'soliciting prostitution,' 'sexual assault,' or 'rape' on his record? Any way to find out if those listed in the mugshots own or drive a white truck matching the vehicle description? It's possible it could be the same guy and that, up until now, he hasn't actually hurt anyone but things got out of hand when he offered MS a ride home....just a theory FWIW.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlin...-police-seek-driver-looking-to-pick-up-women/

 

[chicken fried]

Re: the damage - if the bike hit a cypress knee, log, etc. while being dropped from I-10, it could have been damaged and bounced a couple feet into the water. The water's pretty low right now and I bet there's little or no water directly under the right guardrail as you get past the boat ramp and down the canal a bit.

 

[Chili Fries]

Does anybody know how much effect tides have in this area? It is close to the gulf. We've seen other cases where tides can have an effect on river flow/levels.

 

[who knew?]

It was mentioned that Mickey had mace. It was obviously never used or was ineffective. This tells me that whatever happened was very swift and would indicate an experienced predator, IMO.

OR someone she knew.

 

[Woe.be.gone]

It was mentioned that Mickey had mace. It was obviously never used or was ineffective. This tells me that whatever happened was very swift and would indicate an experienced predator, IMO.

Or she didn't feel threatened.

 

[chicken fried]

Does anybody know how much effect tides have in this area? It is close to the gulf. We've seen other cases where tides can have an effect on river flow/levels.

I don't think the tide has any effect at all here. The Atchafalaya enters the Gulf way down at Morgan City, and the vast expanse of the Basin would likely absorb all or almost all tidal effect.

Thhe operative word here is rain. We're in a drought, except for the brief rain right after she disappeared - so the water level under the bridge is low. It's possible that the bike actually fell onto land, and the surge from the one day of rain carried it partially into the water. It may have moved somewhat from its original position - but probably not far, I would think.

 

[cluciano63]

OR someone she knew.

OR more than one person involved, making it much easier to take a person and a bike quickly.

 

[Isabelle]

WHOA!!! That puts a new spin on it for me. I had originally imagined they stopped quickly and hid it in the bushes. But hearing it was in the water makes me feel like she might have been underwater too.

But apparently they have quit searching there for the day, with no trace of her found.

Is TES still in town? Wonder if they used the side sonar or whatever it is called? Were any TES searchers at Whisky Bay?

 

[concernedformickey]

concernedformickey, I think FBI retired; R. Depue, probably says it best:

http://fightforjustice.blogspot.com/2005/12/roger- l-depue.html
Roger Depue “Between Good and Evil” He is retired FBI BAU..


My job has been to try to stop human predators before they kill again, and after studying them so closely over so many years, to me their traits seem clearly recognizable.
Evil is more than a vague notion. It is an entity, and it is manifest on the earth. It has reflexes and intuition, senses vulnerability, and changes its form to adapt to its surroundings. Those who do not believe the Devil walks this earth have not seen the things that I have seen.

Evil is not a discrete entity that springs forth fully formed. It is born in the mind, takes root there as fantasy, and prospers when normal human restraint can no longer contain it. I have seen it devour the personalities of men like Richard Speck, Jeffrey Dahmer, and Ted Bundy, turning them into blank-faced sociopaths who clearly know right from wrong, but choose, time and again, to follow their own base urges, with complete disregard for the terrible human suffering they cause.

I guess when I try to understand the whole fantasy gone out of control aspect, I still don't get how exactly they incorporate seeing videos of the grieving families into their lives. It shocks me. If they repeat the act aren't they therefore okay with it?

 

[Isabelle]

Happy birthday Dum-Dum Sucker! I've found someone older than me! (By under two years.)

Happy Birthday Dum Dum. I'm older than both of you! loving it every day too!

 

[Money Girl]

Good Lord, we need a criminal profiler. I felt certain they would find something down there near the bike.

Wish we still had the forensic astrology board for Mickey and for Kelli Bordeaux.

 

[cluciano63]

With Mickey's bike found, that can rule out that she did not take off on her own, I think, if that was ever really a consideration. But it does not really rule out anything else.

These cases are so depressingly hard to work, for LE. How to rule out different scenarios? I have never heard anything ruled out in Lauren's case, after a year, or Holly's after even longer. Or Katelyn's-LE can't even rule out her leaving on her own, after 9 months. At least with children, that much can be determined fairly quickly.

Seemingly this LE is doing all possible to find Mickey; wishing them all the luck, as they will need it.

With Indiana reaching out in this case, it really makes be think that not much at all has advanced in Lauren's case at all.
JMO

 

[Isabelle]

I would really want to know about the text message Mickey received. And, the timeline from TacoBell to when Mickey was last seen on video is so tight, has me feeling as though she was rushed.

 

[Foxfire]

If my memory is correct, between 6 to 8 hours passed before Mickey was missed by her friends & family. Even more time had passed before LE was notified and due to it being Sunday, resources were minimal.. Planned or opportunist?

 

[wfgodot]

concernedformickey, I think FBI retired; R. Depue, probably says it best:

http://fightforjustice.blogspot.com/2005/12/roger- l-depue.html
Roger Depue “Between Good and Evil” He is retired FBI BAU..
.

On this sort of thing, in the future just give us a link and don't copy the site's material wholesale. A brief paraphrase of what we'll see when we get there will do.