MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #3

[ThinkHard]

Also I wonder if the fact that they kept asking for vehicle siting btw 1-3 pm on that Sunday...indicates that his scent stopped. And thus must have gotten into a vehicle.

A bike would not evade scent dogs. As scent dogs track skin cells, and you would still leave a trail of skin cells even on a bicycle.

 

[Rocky1]

How would a dog have any clue which scent to track without a specific scent bring given to it follow? It would seem to me in those cases that LE would still have to give the dogs scent to track via something the perp would knowingly come into contact with.

There are a few different methods.
One is called "Trailing", where a dog is sniffing footprints on the ground, When you step on the grass for example, the grass produces a liquid. That scent is left for a short while. The same goes for leaves , or any other ground disturbance. The dogs will also smell shoe polish and things like that.
Another is called "Tracking", where the dog will smell rafts ( dead skin cells) Those cells are so small that we can't see them, but a dog can smell them. Depending on wind speed, and direction, those rafts will fall, but may be off the exact track a bit.
Another way dogs track is by sound. The military uses these dogs to listen for snipers etc. Dogs that are trained to find people buried in avalanches use this method as well.
I am not saying that dogs won't track the smell of clothing because they will. What I am saying is they don't need clothing to flush someone out of the woods, or any previous scent of a person to track someone to their house through the woods. once they get a scent of other things,(shoe polish, grass) they will track.

Just to add. Ever wonder how a dog can sense the direction a person is traveling? They do this because the scent gets stronger the closer the dog is to the person, because the scent is more fresh.

 

[zoso]

As an alternative scenario too many, if the guy was a drifter/ hiker/local on foot he could follow that stone wall all the way from central Princeton to almost the very spot she was found...if he was a camping drifter, he may have had Sterno on him as well. The wall starts south of that big intersection in town at a residence and continues all the way to Brooks Rd. If she went down the path and he happened to be following the wall. Their vectors meet...

 

[Rocky1]

All very good points. My guess is the scent trail did indeed go from Brooks Station down the cart path concerning VM. If the scent trail concerning the perp continued through the woods to rte 31, I would not be surprised if LE know this, don't know due to how the dogs were prepped for the search, or they stopped the search upon the discovery of VM (would this be protocol?). The distance from the Brooks Station to rte 31 is about 3000ft? Does that sound right? I think investigating all the goings on that Sunday in the Mountain Barn/Light Co area might payoff and generate some leads. A google street view exploration of that area is interesting.

VM was found by the Dogs.
My very first thought when I first heard about this is it was someone living near , and used the woods for their escape, like a lot of others here as well. I would hope that the police were thinking the same way,and continued tracking/trailing with the Dogs. I am betting they did, but don't know for sure.
I would think that if they did track a scent to Rt 31, they would have asked the public if they had seen anyone walking up that road to contact them, but that was never mentioned specifically, as far as I know.

 

[zoso]

I think his vehicle was parked at Mountain Barn/ElectricCo. It would be harder to spot strange vehicles there for regular bystanders on a Sunday. Having the investigation be so Brooks Station-centric may have thrown off LE a little, although I'm very impressed with MLE so far.

 

[Rocky1]

Also I wonder if the fact that they kept asking for vehicle siting btw 1-3 pm on that Sunday...indicates that his scent stopped. And thus must have gotten into a vehicle.

A bike would not evade scent dogs. As scent dogs track skin cells, and you would still leave a trail of skin cells even on a bicycle.

Good point about the scent stopping, and that may very well be why they think a car is involved, but here's my thought.
The police returned a few days later to search more, and from what I read here, and what I saw on tv, they were searching an area up the road from the cart road. From the way it looked to me, there were guard rails on both sides of the road where they were searching. Not enough room on either side to park a car. I would think if he parked his car, he would have done so where the cart road begins, because there is plenty of room right there after the guard rail ends to park.
To me it's possible if he was on a bike that the Dogs may have tracked for a short distance, but because he is pedaling on the road, the faster he is going with distance,( I would think he was giving it all he had to get out of there) leaving less raft for the Dogs to sniff. Combine that with cars driving down that road, blowing the raft away,, the dogs could have lost the scent.
The only other thing that came to mind was the Dogs tracked him on foot for that short distance, and someone else picked him up in a car, but two things with that.
1) That exposes him out on that road for people to see him. ( rather than just stay on the cart road out of sight,)
2) How did that other person know he was done doing what he did, and to come back to pick him up unless he called him. If that happened the police would have that ping.

 

[Rocky1]

I think his vehicle was parked at Mountain Barn/ElectricCo. It would be harder to spot strange vehicles there for regular bystanders on a Sunday. Having the investigation be so Brooks Station-centric may have thrown off LE a little, although I'm very impressed with MLE so far.

He could have very well had his car parked at the Mountain barn, but here's my thoughts if he did.
He has three ways to get there, if he is on foot.
Through the woods,
Up Brook Station Rd, to Ball Hill Rd, to Rt 31 to the Mountain Barn
Down Brook station Rd to Boylston Rd to Rt 31 to the Mountain Barn
If he went through the woods, again I would think he would have been tracked by the Dogs.
The shortest way is up Brook Station Rd, to Ball Hill rd, to Rt 31. Jogging, that takes 45 minutes. Walking fair to say double that? Remember.this guy has injuries to his face, according to the State Police. I live near Princeton in a rural town . If I see a guy walking up my road I take notice. If he was to have a bleeding face, I'd really notice. Although traffic may be light, I think it;s fair to say a few cars are going to drive by him while he is on those roads. I think someone would have remembered seeing him because it is so rural. and he'd stick out with his injuries.
Another thing is he just set the woods on fire. He knows he has to get out fast. He could have been running like a maniac with his bleeding face in a panic. I would think he'd stick out that way too.
Again nothing to base this on, but that's another reason I think he may have been on a bike. If his car or truck is parked at the Mountain Barn, or anyplace else, he loads his bike up, and goes. Nobody thinks twice about it. I don't think he wasted too much time hanging around if he had facial injuries.

 

[FindHG]

He could have very well had his car parked at the Mountain barn, but here's my thoughts if he did.
He has three ways to get there, if he is on foot.
Through the woods,
Up Brook Station Rd, to Ball Hill Rd, to Rt 31 to the Mountain Barn
Down Brook station Rd to Boylston Rd to Rt 31 to the Mountain Barn
If he went through the woods, again I would think he would have been tracked by the Dogs.
The shortest way is up Brook Station Rd, to Ball Hill rd, to Rt 31. Jogging, that takes 45 minutes. Walking fair to say double that? Remember.this guy has injuries to his face, according to the State Police. I live near Princeton in a rural town . If I see a guy walking up my road I take notice. If he was to have a bleeding face, I'd really notice. Although traffic may be light, I think it;s fair to say a few cars are going to drive by him while he is on those roads. I think someone would have remembered seeing him because it is so rural. and he'd stick out with his injuries.
Another thing is he just set the woods on fire. He knows he has to get out fast. He could have been running like a maniac with his bleeding face in a panic. I would think he'd stick out that way too.
Again nothing to base this on, but that's another reason I think he may have been on a bike. If his car or truck is parked at the Mountain Barn, or anyplace else, he loads his bike up, and goes. Nobody thinks twice about it. I don't think he wasted too much time hanging around if he had facial injuries.

Thank you, Rocky1, for helping to think this through. Most of the scenarios upthread sound plausible. Perhaps LE would have considered them as well, before releasing information emphasizing a vehicle seen in the area. Maybe there will be an update as all the leads are processed at the Fusion Center.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Just starting to really dig in to this thread, and it's moving fast.
Apologies if this has already been discussed thoroughly. What on earth is up with the sock dude? Either he is our man, or he has the horrid misfortune of appearing to be. Has he been eliminated? And he skipped work the day of, and the day after the murder? Does this guy just have the worst timing in the world, or....? Does he not own a pair of shoes, or is he just an offbeat character? Bizarre.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Another question. Do we know if there had been any suspicious fires in the area in the months leading up to this murder? I think the use of fire is going to be what nails this miscreant. Once LE determines what was used to burn the victim, I believe it will quickly lead them to the Perp.
Since she had such a consistent jogging routine on Sundays, it was easy for her to be tracked.
I still hold to my theory that this was someone in her neighborhood. A watcher.

 

[Michigan]

I log onto WS every day to see any updates on this case. This one has affected me deeply because I grew up in the area (my mom was actually driving to a funeral at the time of the crime and saw nothing - she said roads were eerily quiet- she did call in to the police tip line to report what she saw which was basically nothing). I'm very concerned that the case may be going cold. There is no new news. I am praying that this case will be solved. A few observations / thoughts that i'd love your thoughts on:
+ have we ever heard from police that they actually got the perp's dna? I know we heard that the cops took dna from suspects and we heard that they had not been able to make a match with the New York jogger killing. But did they ever say they had Dna? Now I'm worried they may not have gotten any and were taking samples to bluff or in the hopes they would eventually find some (either with further testing, more advanced techniques, new evidence that might materialize)
+ cops said they believe VM fought with her attacker. Any ideas on why they think that? I'm wondering if there were signs of struggle in the woods? If she was burned badly, how would they have known? Could they be assuming the burning was to conceal Dna even if it did cover it up? Curious to hear theories here
+ if the burning were done to cover up her identity, what about her dental records? They could have easily proven identity.
+ the police have stated they believe the perp used a car. I was assuming maybe they found tire marks. What other things could possibly point to their being a car involved? I guess the theory that a scent disappeared but to me that doesn't immediately speak to car - could have been a bike, etc. thoughts?
I appreciate everyone taking the time to post. I enjoy the discussion and have learned a lot. I've been lurking a while and wanted to contribute something.
All JMO

 

[ThinkHard]

There are a few different methods.
One is called "Trailing", where a dog is sniffing footprints on the ground, When you step on the grass for example, the grass produces a liquid. That scent is left for a short while. The same goes for leaves , or any other ground disturbance. The dogs will also smell shoe polish and things like that.
Another is called "Tracking", where the dog will smell rafts ( dead skin cells) Those cells are so small that we can't see them, but a dog can smell them. Depending on wind speed, and direction, those rafts will fall, but may be off the exact track a bit.
Another way dogs track is by sound. The military uses these dogs to listen for snipers etc. Dogs that are trained to find people buried in avalanches use this method as well.
I am not saying that dogs won't track the smell of clothing because they will. What I am saying is they don't need clothing to flush someone out of the woods, or any previous scent of a person to track someone to their house through the woods. once they get a scent of other things,(shoe polish, grass) they will track.

Just to add. Ever wonder how a dog can sense the direction a person is traveling? They do this because the scent gets stronger the closer the dog is to the person, because the scent is more fresh.

Sorry, I don't really follow what you are saying. My neighbors dogs are trained to track and I've learned a few things from him. One of his dogs is a cadaver dog the other two can track living people. He works with the LE in the New England states extensively. My other neighbor is a dentists and does forensic work in MA and RI.

For one I don't see how sound tracking would come into play I this case at all.

Two she was found on private property so how would they identify the perps scent off any scent there. Third, I think the dogs were brought in to find her, not to track the perp, as I'm sure the assumed he was long gone from the immediate area at that point.

Also it rained less then 48 hrs after she was found, which would erase any likely hood of there being tracking based on smell of foot prints. I actually aske my neighbor about that and he said that's a very rare way of finding someone and only works if you are right on their trail.

 

[ThinkHard]

As an alternative scenario too many, if the guy was a drifter/ hiker/local on foot he could follow that stone wall all the way from central Princeton to almost the very spot she was found...if he was a camping drifter, he may have had Sterno on him as well. The wall starts south of that big intersection in town at a residence and continues all the way to Brooks Rd. If she went down the path and he happened to be following the wall. Their vectors meet...

Do you really think a drifter was just camping out in people back yards in Princeton and he went inoticed?

As a local this seems unlikely.

 

[ThinkHard]

I think his vehicle was parked at Mountain Barn/ElectricCo. It would be harder to spot strange vehicles there for regular bystanders on a Sunday. Having the investigation be so Brooks Station-centric may have thrown off LE a little, although I'm very impressed with MLE so far.

Maybe but mnt barn is closed at that time on a Sunday. So it would actually be weird to see a vehicle there.

 

[eucalyptuz]

My main problem with a perp on foot or on a bike, is that if that is the case here, we really have to think about a very planned and targeted attack ...whereas the 30 yard from the road location of the body, the shoe, the partial burning and the apparent deposit of a lot of DNA evidence seems to point to another kind of opportunistic/random/savage/disorganized attacker all together.
If the attacker is on foot/bike the burning must have been pre-planned as what kind of hiker/rider carries the makings for a fire...and if this step was planned why was the fire so seemingly inefficient?

 

[ThinkHard]

Good point about the scent stopping, and that may very well be why they think a car is involved, but here's my thought.
The police returned a few days later to search more, and from what I read here, and what I saw on tv, they were searching an area up the road from the cart road. From the way it looked to me, there were guard rails on both sides of the road where they were searching. Not enough room on either side to park a car. I would think if he parked his car, he would have done so where the cart road begins, because there is plenty of room right there after the guard rail ends to park.
To me it's possible if he was on a bike that the Dogs may have tracked for a short distance, but because he is pedaling on the road, the faster he is going with distance,( I would think he was giving it all he had to get out of there) leaving less raft for the Dogs to sniff. Combine that with cars driving down that road, blowing the raft away,, the dogs could have lost the scent.
The only other thing that came to mind was the Dogs tracked him on foot for that short distance, and someone else picked him up in a car, but two things with that.
1) That exposes him out on that road for people to see him. ( rather than just stay on the cart road out of sight,)
2) How did that other person know he was done doing what he did, and to come back to pick him up unless he called him. If that happened the police would have that ping.

There are gaurd rails right where the cart path is. Not sure what footage your thinking of but I don't think it off that they would check along the roads on either side of the cart path along those gaurd rails. And yes there is room to pull a car over there even with the guard rails.

Also despite if he was pedaling fast it would not have thrown off the dogs (says my neighbor).

I don't really see a bike being part of this, in all honesty. The only way a bike rider wouldn't look weird in that road is if it were a young kid or a HS age looking boy. It's not a road that distance riders with their fancy helmets etc are going to be riding down.

I feel like bike rider siting and looking out of place is something that would have popped up in the police logs, but that's not what we see, instead we see lots of reports of light vehicles and pick up trucks specifically around the hours of 1 and 3....which leads me to believe that a vehicle was involved not a bike.

Also the "biker" would have to have had any supplies to burn her with on him. IMHO I just don't think it was someone on a bike.

 

[ThinkHard]

He could have very well had his car parked at the Mountain barn, but here's my thoughts if he did.
He has three ways to get there, if he is on foot.
Through the woods,
Up Brook Station Rd, to Ball Hill Rd, to Rt 31 to the Mountain Barn
Down Brook station Rd to Boylston Rd to Rt 31 to the Mountain Barn
If he went through the woods, again I would think he would have been tracked by the Dogs.
The shortest way is up Brook Station Rd, to Ball Hill rd, to Rt 31. Jogging, that takes 45 minutes. Walking fair to say double that? Remember.this guy has injuries to his face, according to the State Police. I live near Princeton in a rural town . If I see a guy walking up my road I take notice. If he was to have a bleeding face, I'd really notice. Although traffic may be light, I think it;s fair to say a few cars are going to drive by him while he is on those roads. I think someone would have remembered seeing him because it is so rural. and he'd stick out with his injuries.
Another thing is he just set the woods on fire. He knows he has to get out fast. He could have been running like a maniac with his bleeding face in a panic. I would think he'd stick out that way too.
Again nothing to base this on, but that's another reason I think he may have been on a bike. If his car or truck is parked at the Mountain Barn, or anyplace else, he loads his bike up, and goes. Nobody thinks twice about it. I don't think he wasted too much time hanging around if he had facial injuries.

From where she was found it would have actually been shorter to go north then to go south to ball hill. From her moms house to mnt barn in either direction via the road is 3.2 or 3.1 miles....but from the point she was found (because it was a half mile from her moms continuing north would have been closer.

Also there is literally zero evidence he "set the woods on fire" all we know is have had burns to her face, hands, and feet. We have no idea the extent, the instrument used, or where the burning actually took place. But giving the minimal to potentially zero evidence of charing in the woods, I think it's safe to say at no point where the woods ever on fire.

 

[ThinkHard]

Another question. Do we know if there had been any suspicious fires in the area in the months leading up to this murder? I think the use of fire is going to be what nails this miscreant. Once LE determines what was used to burn the victim, I believe it will quickly lead them to the Perp.
Since she had such a consistent jogging routine on Sundays, it was easy for her to be tracked.
I still hold to my theory that this was someone in her neighborhood. A watcher.

In the police log there was a brush fire on Brooks station road a few weeks prior.

 

[rosesfromangels]

We're the burns to her *face* or her *head*?

 

[rosesfromangels]

In the police log there was a brush fire on Brooks station road a few weeks prior.

I'd be looking at this closely to see if arson could be determined. Seems as if the Perp is a pyro.