MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[ForensicMass]

Just to clarify: When people talked about her being put where she was found, it wasn't being brought 'back there', it was mentioned being brought 'to there'.

There is a difference in that.

Yes, kickoff is right. And there is a differnce. But to be clear, this was not just a dump site, IMO. With so many other better dumpsites all around and more secluded it does not make sense as a dump site. I will also venture to say that it does not make much sense as a murder site. That is why I believe that the site was in part decided upon by Vanessa's actions and not the killers.

 

[searunner]

I contend that If it matched, LE would have a responsibility to inform the public of possible serial.

I 200% agree with this. In my mind, LE would absolutely have a responsibility to inform the public that a potential serial killer was on the loose apparently targeting female runners if the DNA in Vanessa's case and the Queen's case matched.

As a woman runner and someone who knows many women runners in the midatlantic and New England areas, I know for certainty that this info would cause some to alter their running habits. I think it would be a public relations nightmare and heads would roll in LE if they know the killer in the two cases is the same man, don't make that info public, AND he strikes one or more women while they're out running.

In my mind, the two cases are not connected. Though the fact that there are two of these killers out there rather than one serial killer is just as maddening. I am so sick and tired of hearing about women being abducted or murdered because some man wants to satisfy (or attempt to) himself or has anger control issues or is sociopathic bec his father beat him or whatever. Would that more women were armed. Darn shame Vanessa apparently didn't have mace or a stun gun on her. She may not have survived but she would have had a much greater chance.

I didn't carry anything when I was in my 20s and running alone either, despite being bright and working in a big city, like Vanessa. If someone was intent on getting me during a nature type run, they probably could have.

ALL women walkers/runners should have mace or a stun gun on them when they walk or run alone unless their entire route is populated. And it should be taken out of their pocket and visible whenever they pass any man and there is nobody else around. It's unfortunate, but it is necessary to consider any lone man a potential threat.

My sister is a runner too. Years back she said some man in a car was following her for a good part of her run or circled by her several times. Forget that story now as it was years ago. She is also petite - short, slender - and pretty. This incident was during the daylight at a county park in a nice area. The park is usually pretty busy, but there is this one stretch that can take one out of sight relatively briefly.

I don't doubt that these sickos generally target petite women. In general, it would give them a greater strength advantage.

 

[monkeypants]

Hard to believe that he burned her in an attempt to erase his DNA. His DNA does not look to be in any data bases. So why on earth take the time to do that ? I think he burned her when she was still alive and conscious, but perhaps too stunned and weakened to scream. I recall reading about a case, years ago, where a victim was tortured by a perp to obtain his debit card pin number. Perp stole money, but was eventually caught...jmo

Hard to peg a motive here. because originally it was reported that VM " might have been sexually assaulted ". So it must not have been obvious. No posing of the body etc. And, if his motive was rape, why did he kill her ? She knew him ? Or had seen him before ? If his motive from the beginning was murder, WHY ? Who would want to kill this young woman ?

Sadistic cigarette burns while she is alive and tied up is my guess

 

[Rocky1]

For The 9:30 AM run on Aug 22 almost exactly one year earlier, high that day was 82. Not as hot as the day she was killed.

But there's a window of comfort for running outside, and 82 is definitely borderline oppressive for running. The low that day was 72, much more comfortable. My guess is that was a factor in when she ran.

And I know that you say a lot can change in a year and that's certainly true. But people's running habits are a lot like their eating habits. If you hate celery and sushi this year, chances are good the same will be true in 5 years.
If you're someone who runs based on body energy and comfort level, weather, and schedule, that isn't likely to change. I've been running for about 6 years. My schedule looks a lot like hers from last year. When I look at the timing pattern of her runs, it's meaningful to me, I can understand it.

To me, the biggest possibility for any change in her historical running habit would be the crohns diagnosis. And if that had an effect, I would expect it to have slowed her down some. I would expect even less of a chance that she would run in that heat at that time. It was 88 degrees with 84 percent humidity. Awful weather for running.

One more thing THAT JUST HIT ME ABOUT THIS

Based on these weather observations and her normal distances, I seriously doubt she would have been planning one of her longer runs that day. I would say she was going for 3 slow miles, not the 6 mile loop which included BALL HILL ROAD.

Based on the weather observations that day, I am inclined to think what law enforcement said. That she was out for a "walk" that day. Not so sure she planned on running at all.

 

[ForensicMass]

Based on the weather observations that day, I am inclined to think what law enforcement said. That she was out for a "walk" that day. Not so sure she planned on running at all.

I think a 3 mile walk with some jogging, isn't out of the question. I would like to make a chart of her running information and post it does anyone know how to post a photograph ?

 

[Rocky1]

Sadistic cigarette burns while she is alive and tied up is my guess

Think a cigarette left all the ash and soot from a fire?

 

[Rocky1]

Regarding her phone - perhaps he believed/thought she might have taken his picture with it and it was in the phone's memory. Now if she had something like a dropbox app running, any photos might have been automatically uploaded to cloud.... Something that LE could checked(?), but would need her phone or password to do so....

Good point. That makes sense.

 

[Rocky1]

I think a 3 mile walk with some jogging, isn't out of the question. I would like to make a chart of her running information and post it does anyone know how to post a photograph ?

With her being a runner,That may very well be true. The thing that made me think she wasn't running that day was I am sure the first thing LE did was ask her family what her plans were for the day. Combine that with the weather, and it makes me wonder why LE didn't say she went out for a jog, but rather a walk. Could have been as simple as the wording LE used, but I have wondered about that, and that lead me to wonder how she was dressed etc. I would think it is safe to assume being as hot as it was, that she was in light clothing either way... shorts etc.

 

[ForensicMass]

With her being a runner,That may very well be true. The thing that made me think she wasn't running that day was I am sure the first thing LE did was ask her family what her plans were for the day. Combine that with the weather, and it makes me wonder why LE didn't say she went out for a jog, but rather a walk. Could have been as simple as the wording LE used, but I have wondered about that, and that lead me to wonder how she was dressed etc. I would think it is safe to assume being as hot as it was, that she was in light clothing either way... shorts etc.

She always started her workouts with about a mile of walking. And interspersed jogging from there. I am sure you're right, she was wearing running clothes.

 

[ForensicMass]

I created a chart to breakdown all the info provided in her historical running data. If there is a way, I can post a photo of it?

My best guess as to her plan on the day of the crime is based on her workout on 9-6-15. It is the closest match to the scenario at hand, and quite a close match actually.

9-6-15. It was a Sunday. The high temperature for the day was 91°. Vanessa left her moms house AT 10:25AM and headed north on BSR At a walking pace (11.3 min/mile). She got to the Radford Road intersection (1 mile from home) and turned around and headed home, keeping the same walking pace over the 2.03 miles. She was on BSR for the entire time. The temperature during this activity was 80° (Much more comfortable than 90°).

In each of the 4 Princeton road routes (the fifth was actually a hike at mount wachusett state park) VANESSA ALWAYS exercised at times that were NOT PEAK HEAT. The start time range for the Princeton road runs spans from 7:14 AM to 12:02 PM. Each of these runs was during a hot time of year- either August or September, with high temperatures ranging from 79 with 97% humidity to 91 with 90% humidity.

Based on this information, I am led to STRONGLY believe there was no set pattern to her run times, except that she might try to get the run over before it got too hot. Interestingly if someone was planning an attack on her, 1 PM would certainly be outside of her normal timeframe.

 

[Rocky1]

She always started her workouts with about a mile of walking. And interspersed jogging from there. I am sure you're right, she was wearing running clothes.

Or regular shorts, if she was just out for a walk.

 

[ForensicMass]

Or regular shorts, if she was just out for a walk.

She was 27, worked for Google and ate steaks at the chophouse. She was wearing expensive running clothing. I am in her peer group so to speak. The women I know who workout select their work out clothing like they do a wedding dress. The way they look while working out is very important to every girl who I know that goes to the gym.

She would've been ready to run if she felt good enough. IMO

 

[Rocky1]

I created a chart to breakdown all the info provided in her historical running data. If there is a way, I can post a photo of it?

My best guess as to her plan on the day of the crime is based on her workout on 9-6-15. It is the closest match to the scenario at hand, and quite a close match actually.

9-6-15. It was a Sunday. The high temperature for the day was 91°. Vanessa left her moms house AT 10:25AM and headed north on BSR At a walking pace (11.3 min/mile). She got to the Radford Road intersection (1 mile from home) and turned around and headed home, keeping the same walking pace over the 2.03 miles. She was on BSR for the entire time. The temperature during this activity was 80° (Much more comfortable than 90°).

In each of the 4 Princeton road routes (the fifth was actually a hike at mount wachusett state park) VANESSA ALWAYS exercised at times that were NOT PEAK HEAT. The start time range for the Princeton road runs spans from 7:14 AM to 12:02 PM. Each of these runs was during a hot time of year- either August or September, with high temperatures ranging from 79 with 97% humidity to 91 with 90% humidity.

Based on this information, I am led to STRONGLY believe there was no set pattern to her run times, except that she might try to get the run over before it got too hot. Interestingly if someone was planning an attack on her, 1 PM would certainly be outside of her normal timeframe.

If, using your words, 82* is "oppressive" to run, and using your words, saying that runners establish habits, that they don't change for years, and using the example above on 9-6-2015, showing that she never ran that day, but walked, combined that LE said that she went for a "walk" that day, what makes you think she was running?

 

[ForensicMass]

If, using your words, 82* is "oppressive" to run, and using your words, saying that runners establish habits, that they don't change for years, and using the example above on 9-6-2015, showing that she never ran that day, but walked, combined that LE said that she went for a "walk" that day, what makes you think she was running?

That's not a point of contention for me- she was walking when this happened. Maybe she would have run for a short bit of it, but it's a moot point. What matters is that it was unusual for her to head out at 1PM on a hot day. It was not something someone could easily PLAN on. That's what I take from it. Not whether someone was running or walking.

Temps on the day and at the time of the murder were between 84-88 with humidity in the 80% range. That is tough running.

The other important take away is that on a similar day one year earlier she took a route that brought her past the cart path to the intersection with Radford Road and then she turned around and went back down BSR, passing the cart path again.

Which in turn means she was visible on BSR for a window of exactly 23.5 CONSECUTIVE minutes. That's definitely enough time for people to spot her on this road, even pass her more than once if in a car.

 

[Rocky1]

That's not a point of contention for me- she was walking when this happened. Maybe she would have run for a short bit of it, but it's a moot point. What matters is that it was unusual for her to head out at 1PM on a hot day. It was not something someone could easily PLAN on. That's what I take from it. Not whether someone was running or walking.

To me it's not moot, because if she planned on just walking that day, why get dressed in your running clothes an hour before you go for a walk, then go to the store dressed in those running clothes, where someone would know you are about to go jogging, then follow you back, wait, and ambush you? If she was in regular shorts, how would he know she was going to go jogging?

 

[ForensicMass]

To me it's not moot, because if she planned on just walking that day, why get dressed in your running clothes an hour before you go for a walk, then go to the store dressed in those running clothes, where someone would know you are about to go jogging, then follow you back, wait, and ambush you? If she was in regular shorts, how would he know she was going to go jogging?

The perp could have determined this in any number of ways, or not at all. he could have recognized her as someone he had seen jogging on BSR before, and she was buying a Gatorade, he could've overheard a conversation.
I contend that 27 year old women that regularly exercise have clothes specifically for this activity. And whether she was going for a "walk" or "run" wouldn't change the fact that she would be wearing "exercise" clothes, not street clothes. Take a poll of young women on here if there are any.

In any case, I can't say I'm sure the guy knew she would be running. It's just a possibility to me. I do think there's a strong possibility this person saw her earlier THAT DAY, confirming her whereabouts and setting the attack in motion.

 

[Rocky1]

The perp could have determined this in any number of ways, or not at all. he could have recognized her as someone he had seen jogging on BSR before, and she was buying a Gatorade, he could've overheard a conversation.
I contend that 27 year old women that regularly exercise have clothes specifically for this activity. And whether she was going for a "walk" or "run" wouldn't change the fact that she would be wearing "exercise" clothes, not street clothes. Take a poll of young women on here if there are any.

In any case, I can't say I'm sure the guy knew she would be running. It's just a possibility to me. I do think there's a strong possibility this person saw her earlier THAT DAY, confirming her whereabouts and setting the attack in motion.

I can't speak for all, but,I see younger women that walk on my road, and have never see them dressed in spandex just to walk. There is one that dresses is Spandex, but I have never seen her walking, always running.
I'm just trying to make your scenario, examples/experiences fit, along with her history that you posted, and at 1 pm, (the hottest time of the day) along with you saying that you base your running around the weather, and 82* and above being oppressive, I find it hard to believe she planned on running at all that day. I may very well be wrong, but I don't think she would dress in tight spandex just to walk, but more so in light colored, loose fitting shorts.
I do believe he may have seen her earlier that day, but only minutes earlier, on BSR.
I also believe this guy knew her routine as far as running that route, but being that hot that day, (84-88*, more towards the 88* at 1pm) he wasn't sure she'd be on that road that particular day, so I am saying he wasn't in the woods all day waiting for her.

 

[ForensicMass]

I can't speak for all, but,I see younger women that walk on my road, and have never see them dressed in spandex just to walk. There is one that dresses is Spandex, but I have never seen her walking, always running.
I'm just trying to make your scenario, examples/experiences fit, along with her history that you posted, and at 1 pm, (the hottest time of the day) along with you saying that you base your running around the weather, and 82* and above being oppressive, I find it hard to believe she planned on running at all that day. I may very well be wrong, but I don't think she would dress is tight spandex just to walk, but more so in light colored, loose fitting shorts.
I do believe he may have seen her earlier that day, but only minutes earlier.
I also believe this guy knew her routine as far as running that route, but being that hot that day, (84-88*, more towards the 88* at 1pm) he wasn't sure she'd be on that road that particular day, so I am saying he wasn't in the woods all day waiting for her.

All good thoughts. Temp at 1PM was actually 84. Went up to peak of 88 at ten minutes to 3 PM. All just the same.

When/how do you think he saw her in the minutes before? I don't disagree. Just wondering when/how you mean? He was passing in a car, or on a bike, or from his window?

And what about if we theorize that she didn't ever leave BSR. That eliminates the Window watcher guy, since there aren't really any visible houses with view of the road there. That leaves bike guy who is just tooling around in the heat, and car guy, or maybe you're thinking something completely different altogether.

 

[Rocky1]

All good thoughts. Temp at 1PM was actually 84. Went up to peak of 88 at ten minutes to 3 PM. All just the same.

When/how do you think he saw her in the minutes before? I don't disagree. Just wondering when/how you mean? He was passing in a car, or on a bike, or from his window?

And what about if we theorize that she didn't ever leave BSR. That eliminates the Window watcher guy, since there aren't really any visible houses with view of the road there. That leaves bike guy who is just tooling around in the heat, and car guy, or maybe you're thinking something completely different altogether.

Many may not agree because of the SUV report from LE, (and again, I don't doubt many people saw an SUV parked, I am just not convinced that it was involved) But I am still having trouble dismissing the bicycle theory, only because I can't find a good reason yet. I think he saw her on that road before, and that day, just happened to pass her when she left her mothers house, pedaled past her, picked up his bike and carried in into the cart path so it wouldn't leave tracks, walked back out, and hid in that gully to the right of the cart path. Then he waited for her and ambushed her from behind, having a little more time, because she was walking and not running. The fact that nobody saw him/her, was just luck.
I also think this guy was younger, late teens maybe,(why his DNA isn't in the system yet) and when I was in my teens, riding my bike in 90* heat, didn't matter.
Again I could be totally off base but I can't see why yet.

edit:
Just to add, that would also explain the FBI profiler, saying that he is local. and it would also explain that he doesn't have to live so close that he was canvased by LE in the close range of the crime scene.

 

[Rocky1]

The only other scenario that I can fit, is there were two perps that are real close and are partners in crime that were driving down that road that day,( both local that knew the path) saw her, one got out at the path, waited and ambushed her after the SUV drove away, Then the SUV returned later to pick him up. neither knew her, or had seen her before. She was just the unfortunate person, being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
As I said before, If this was the case, they had to both have burner phones, if they talked to each other, because I am sure that LE checked out every ping from those towers, or they didn't talk at all.
Those two scenarios are the only thing that makes sense to me. I don't see that SUV being parked there the entire time.
I also don't see an attempted abduction gone wrong with her running in the woods, one chasing her, doors left open etc. To me, there are just too many cars driving on that road. There is only one way I see this happening. Once she ran, the SUV took off and came back later, but still two perps.

Edit:
Just to add, If this was the case, that would also explain someone driving an SUV, not having scratches, because it wasn't the driver, it was the passenger.