MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[ThinkHard]

How close is that to where her parents live? Yes I know about that testing and oddly awhile back(and this could be the same as familiar DNA but was worded differently) i read some article about using the DNA to find out his race and I believe they said reconstruct a face(it was a video that showed this) based on the DNA showing his background as far as being French and Irish etc or whatever and then make estimates on what the face may look like. They recognized that it can be wrong about how the face looks but that it can tell the race and ethnicity. The way it was talked about seemed even less used than familiar DNA is and almost as if it's a new program someone created within recent years that's rarely used but I saw the video weeks ago and can't recall all the specific details.

Regarding the DNA ... you are talking about a few different types of testing and blending them all together.

Not trying to sound like a know it all, but I actually happen to know a fair amount about genetics and epigentics etc. i happen to have a rare genetic disease that took years to diagnose, so if you have ever been down that road..well you end up teaching yourself a lot and learning a lot along the way ... and I have a bit of a passion for genealogy ... so the love for science and interest in genetics and geneology...it sort of became a bit of a passion.

Anyway the three things you are talking about are,

1.) identifying geneology which is done through genotypes (or haplogroups if it is mtDNA),

2.) identifying physical features which is done through phenotyping

3.) Familial DNA which is done through percentage comparison.

When you are looking at genotypes and phenotypes think of them as patterns of genetic material. When they look at your genotypes they compare it to where the sameness genotypes exist elsewhere around the world across time and can thus within a range determine the percentage of you that aligns with various ancestral lines i.e. (Eastern European, Greek/Italian, Jewish, etc etc etc...).

Phenotypes are more about how patterns in your genes express themselves into physical traits such as eye color, height, etc...

The thing is genes are not so much an on off switch, they are more of a dimmer switch...when they look at phenotypes they can see a range...or even a deletion...but they cannot know exactly how that predispotion expressed itself because gene expression is highly influenced by environmental factors.

With familial DNA testing they simply look at their sample and compare it to another DNA sample to see if they share any genetic material.
50% parent/child, sibling
25% grandparent/grandchild, aunts/uncles/nieces/nephews
12.5% cousins

 

[ThinkHard]

Is vistaprint a tech related job? The guy could be someone she has tech classes with and hasn't graduated left which shows why door to door DNA may not find him unless his family live in that area. But it would explain the self defense class post which I believe she either went to or planned to go to. And even if not local or a local I believe this person is tech savvy maybe has hacking skills of some sort. Or if they worked for something specific like Apple or something then maybe they'd be able to hack into her info that way and track her. This person seems smart and determined if he went tonthe trouble to do that and if he's that obsessed and someone she works with then to me he could see KV and be reminded of her and attacked. I don't know if I've seen this asked but did she ever run anywhere near Howard beach or if KV had the same app that shows her runs then is there any location they both use in New York? I mean they could both belong to some joggers groups on social media and he work there. I wonder if anyone besides LE looked at tinder and dating sites because someone super busy may use sites like that to date. I mean I want to say if I never have needed to use one then I doubt she has but you never know. I wonder if any creepy social media pages have been made with her name or photos... I would look but it's now almost 7am and I would never sleep. Also I wonder if she had one of those apple watches or Nike fitbits that someone could steal or get into and figure out her locations and such. She seems the type to have one with being serious enough to have the runners app. Also with her love for yoga I wonder if she went to any classes for it like a lot of people do such as hot yoga etc cause just one more place to get a stalker and if like at my gym they have the classes there then she easily could have a guy make conversation and find out stuff. I mean I actually had a dude approach me at the bar/club and i forget what the actual words he used were but they essentially were about my purse. He was creepy enough that he saw my bag sitting near the machine and remembered it and then approached me however long after and actually kept hitting on me anytime he saw me after so I believe plenty of creepy guys hangout at gyms and this dude was coast guard so he you'd think would be normal seeming... and i know plenty of yoga isn't at the gym and some is outdoors in parks so I feel if she loves it that much then she attends something most likely or has at least and that's just one more place to pick up a stalker.
Also I should say the self defense classes she mentions would someone be looking into them or taking them if they just got creeped out on weekends? I think if it was posted after KV then whatever creeped her out before and made her potentially change her settings scared her even more for some reason and maybe they'd approached her or sent her a weird message or drove by one too many times. Something caused it and made her want to get others to also take the classes for their safety. Could just be the KV thing but it doesn't feel that way to me.

She graduated college in 2011 anyone she went to school with would have graduated. Yes they could still live in the area of Boston if course, but they wouldn't still be a student.

 

[ForensicMass]

Regarding the DNA ... you are talking about a few different types of testing and blending them all together.

Not trying to sound like a know it all, but I actually happen to know a fair amount about genetics and epigentics etc. i happen to have a rare genetic disease that took years to diagnose, so if you have ever been down that road..well you end up teaching yourself a lot and learning a lot along the way ... and I have a bit of a passion for genealogy ... so the love for science and interest in genetics and geneology...it sort of became a bit of a passion.

Anyway the three things you are talking about are,

1.) identifying geneology which is done through genotypes (or haplogroups if it is mtDNA),

2.) identifying physical features which is done through phenotyping

3.) Familial DNA which is done through percentage comparison.

When you are looking at genotypes and phenotypes thing of them as paternal of genetic material. When they look at your genotypes they compare it to where the sameness genotypes exist elsewhere around the world across time and can thus within a range determine the percentage of you that aligns with various ancestral lines i.e. (Eastern European, Greek/Italian, Jewish, etc etc etc...).

Phenotypes are more about how patterns in your genes express themselves into physical traits such as eye color, height, etc...

The thing is genes are not so much an on off switch, they are more of a dimmer switch...when they look at phenotypes they can see a range...or even a deletion...but they cannot know exactly how that predispotion expressed itself because gene expression is highly influenced by environmental factors.

With familial DNA testing they simply look at their sample and compare it to another DNA sample to see if they share any genetic material.
50% parent/child, sibling
25% grandparent/grandchild, aunts/uncles/nieces/nephews
12.5% cousins

Nice breakdown of all that

 

[Evey]

I continue to think it did not go as he planned with her level of fight which LE believes left some sort of marks on him and then he took further action after that happened. May have been impulsive at that point. I just see that as the turning point in what happened with this.

To me scratchs came from fighting him as he strangled her and likely could covered her mouth since no screams were heard. Frankly I find it weird that at first we heard about rape and strangulation like the KV case and then it torn quiet. I know if they knew for sure it was a serial killer I think they did have to say but what if they aren't because they're tracking him trying to find evidence and know saying it's the same DNA would alert him to that. To me the FBI being involved even more so makes me wonder if they think or know it's the same guy but can't tell us until they find out who he is and get evidence. Clearly they hope the SUV saw him if there was one parked there at the right time. But someone could have pulled over after or during and not noticed because they were pulling over to answer a call which I'm sure the killer could hide their being there until the SUV left but you never know. It's just weird how many things in common they have and the death and likely rape or something makimg them assume it and do the kit and how now the articles don't mention those but things. I have a bad feeling that the dude previously mentioned attacking a girl could be him only because if the area of attack and the other areas. But unless the local traveled there to attacks a girl then it's probably not him. But if you think about it each attack has got more ballsy. First ally(I think) she's shot but close enough to have what happened happen then KV is attacked in a more personal way also in a more public area that's got a lot of reeds and whatever else ans maybe he realizes he likes to strangle more but than shoot and gets more cocky because he's not been caught so he does what he did with VM which is even more cocky and the same MO it feels like but not totally and then he gets even more cocky and attacks a girl where others are even more active but because of how cocky he is he fails at it. So if any of those are the same guy then he's gotten more cocky and has a type and that said I wonder Shayna the girl who was attacked looks like. Again all theories

 

[ForensicMass]

Just wondering - how do you view the intellect of this perp, overall?
A) Below average intelligence
B) Average intelligence
C) Above average intelligence
D) Brilliant

Personally I am in the B-C range. I know it sounds sensational to talk about brilliant sociopathic killers, but that just doesn't line up with this crime for me.

Curious to know where you all think he stands.

 

[ThinkHard]

I didn't say it "couldn't" be a google employee. I just think it very very unlikely. If it were anyone as clever as the people I know at google, she would still be a missing person and we would be discussing where she might have run off to. JMO.

I'm not glorifying the company or the people. If someone from google did it, they didn't allow a car to be seen there. They didn't leave her where she could be found in a matter of hours. I mean, these are things that even I know, and I'm borderline special needs compared to these people. They are brilliant people by and large. And not just in one micro field.

I disagree. If it was a google employee who wanted to take the heat off him and make it look local and keep the cops there...well I'd say he did just that..even better then her still missing would be...because if she was still missing they would widen their search and look more closely at all her co worker connections...making it look local keeps it in MA and the heat far away from him. It's actually a way more ingenious cover then no body at all, at least in my opinion.

I mean if you don't want anyone to know it was you, you make it seem like the last person it could be was you...you don't make it look entirely slick suave and professional if you don't want someone looking for someone that fits that description. Instead you plant seeds and false leads that make people look in another direction.

And IF say this scenario where true...it clearly would be working...

 

[Evey]

Regarding the DNA ... you are talking about a few different types of testing and blending them all together.

Not trying to sound like a know it all, but I actually happen to know a fair amount about genetics and epigentics etc. i happen to have a rare genetic disease that took years to diagnose, so if you have ever been down that road..well you end up teaching yourself a lot and learning a lot along the way ... and I have a bit of a passion for genealogy ... so the love for science and interest in genetics and geneology...it sort of became a bit of a passion.

Anyway the three things you are talking about are,

1.) identifying geneology which is done through genotypes (or haplogroups if it is mtDNA),

2.) identifying physical features which is done through phenotyping

3.) Familial DNA which is done through percentage comparison.

When you are looking at genotypes and phenotypes thing of them as paternal of genetic material. When they look at your genotypes they compare it to where the sameness genotypes exist elsewhere around the world across time and can thus within a range determine the percentage of you that aligns with various ancestral lines i.e. (Eastern European, Greek/Italian, Jewish, etc etc etc...).

Phenotypes are more about how patterns in your genes express themselves into physical traits such as eye color, height, etc...

The thing is genes are not so much an on off switch, they are more of a dimmer switch...when they look at phenotypes they can see a range...or even a deletion...but they cannot know exactly how that predispotion expressed itself because gene expression is highly influenced by environmental factors.

With familial DNA testing they simply look at their sample and compare it to another DNA sample to see if they share any genetic material.
50% parent/child, sibling
25% grandparent/grandchild, aunts/uncles/nieces/nephews
12.5% cousins

Yea I read up on familiar DNA testing this wasn't it though but it sounds like the genotype one but some sort of test or program that guesses what they could look like based off that. They said it can be wrong and all that but that they'd know the skin color at least. It came off as new and experimental or not really used but it was awhile back and wasn't them testing it like familiar DNA for relatives but whatever it was they hadn't done but the article said they should and it had a video with it. I think doing familiar DNA would be good with this case also though. Well with all cases really. It could save lives.

 

[Evey]

She graduated college in 2011 anyone she went to school with would have graduated. Yes they could still live in the area of Boston if course, but they wouldn't still be a student.

That's one idea I also debated. Mainly cause I see her taking tech like classes cause of her job and via that meeting tech savvy people. And that he was local but no longer is so the DNA won't find not him unless they knock on abrelatives door

 

[Evey]

Just wondering - how do you view the intellect of this perp, overall?
A) Below average intelligence
B) Average intelligence
C) Above average intelligence
D) Brilliant

Personally I am in the B-C range. I know it sounds sensational to talk about brilliant sociopathic killers, but that just doesn't line up with this crime for me.

Curious to know where you all think he stands.

I'm the same and also if we made one for if we think he's killed before I would vote yes. I honestly believe he's pretty smart. Especially if he's the one who's killed the others joggers. But to me I see how cocky he seems as being his downfall

 

[Evey]

I disagree. If it was a google employee who wanted to take the heat off him and make it look local and keep the cops there...well I'd say he did just that..even better then her still missing would be...because if she was still missing they would widen their search and look more closely at all her co worker connections...making it look local keeps it in MA and the heat far away from him. It's actually a way more ingenious cover then no body at all, at least in my opinion.

I mean if you don't want anyone to know it was you, you make it seem like the last person it could be was you...you don't make it look entirely slick suave and professional if you don't want someone looking for someone that fits that description. Instead you plant seeds and false leads that make people look in another direction.

And IF say this scenario where true...it clearly would be working...

Exactly. Not saying it's what happened but if it is then it's pretty smart. By making it seem he tried burning her it also adds to us thinking it's a local covering DNA. They really have made us think it's a local so if they aren't them it's very clever. Personally I see this person doing practice runs and killing other joggers and finding out what he likes best and tweaking what he does and experimenting a bit. And also looking at the are before he attacks to know what he needs to do ahead of time and even maybe leaving the things needed.

 

[ThinkHard]

Just wondering - how do you view the intellect of this perp, overall?
A) Below average intelligence
B) Average intelligence
C) Above average intelligence
D) Brilliant

Personally I am in the B-C range. I know it sounds sensational to talk about brilliant sociopathic killers, but that just doesn't line up with this crime for me.

Curious to know where you all think he stands.

I think there is a couple different ways this could have gone, and depending on which it changes motives for doing or not doing certain things ... which of course is the aspect that brings his intelligence into play.

As I have said before and thought from the beginning the crime scene has always felt staged to me, I can't totally explain it, it's just how i feel...I see it as being an above average local who found himself in need of a quick cover by up and tried to stage it or a very intelligent person who had followed her and tracked her and intentionally staged it.

But i dunno, I think there is a lot that doesn't add up....but I think it might be a mistake to assume it was because he wasn't that bright, I think the crime scene was meant to be confusing in purpose.

 

[ThinkHard]

Yea I read up on familiar DNA testing this wasn't it though but it sounds like the genotype one but some sort of test or program that guesses what they could look like based off that. They said it can be wrong and all that but that they'd know the skin color at least. It came off as new and experimental or not really used but it was awhile back and wasn't them testing it like familiar DNA for relatives but whatever it was they hadn't done but the article said they should and it had a video with it. I think doing familiar DNA would be good with this case also though. Well with all cases really. It could save lives.

That is not familial DNA testing. That only matches one person to another not what they look like.

Reconstructing what a person looks like uses the phenotype (outward appearance) which is NOT the same as genotypes) information and imlplimants into software that is programmed to take that info and create an image from it. Identifying phenotypes is not what is knew what's new is the technology to take that information and morph it into a physical image of a person. But they do so using phenotype information from your DNA.

 

[ForensicMass]

I think there is a couple different ways this could have gone, and depending on which it changes motives for doing or not doing certain things ... which of course is the aspect that brings his intelligence into play.

As I have said before and thought from the beginning the crime scene has always felt staged to me, I can't totally explain it, it's just how i feel...I see it as being an above average local who found himself in need of a quick cover by up and tried to stage it or a very intelligent person who had followed her and tracked her and intentionally staged it.

But i dunno, I think there is a lot that doesn't add up....but I think it might be a mistake to assume it was because he wasn't that bright, I think the crime scene was meant to be confusing in purpose.

I follow that. But above average isn't "not that bright". I think he knows something about the world, but is not a google genius. I'm much more in line with your above average local. And there just aren't that many google-smart people in the world compared to average or even above average people. Statistically, dry very few percentage of murderers are geniuses. We hear about the ones that are, because it makes a better story than the idiot murderers. But bY and large, I believe the stats show murderers are usually just average people. Which makes sense because most people are average people.

 

[ThinkHard]

Bte familial DNA is not as easy as you thInk. Sure if it's a parent sibling...and perhaps manageable if it's a grandparent/ aunt uncle thing...but if the. At his 12.5% or less....it could be someone related to you, you've never met before in your life.

So even if the cops can match him to someone loosely and then they find that person...it could be a long lost cousin living across the country with no knowledge of the perp.

 

[ThinkHard]

I follow that. But above average isn't "not that bright". I think he knows something about the world, but is not a google genius. I'm much more in line with your above average local. And there just aren't that many google-smart people in the world compared to average or even above average people. Statistically, dry very few percentage of murderers are geniuses. We hear about the ones that are, because it makes a better story than the idiot murderers. But bY and large, I believe the stats show murderers are usually just average people. Which makes sense because most people are average people.

I don't disagree with that. But I do think if it wasn't local an employee she worked with would be a pretty good angle..especially considering where she worked...it would put her and her phone in contact with this person...and if there ever was a suave sociopath scouting women by tapping their phones....I think google would kind of be his dream job...an environment that rewards him for his brains, wines and dines him, and surrounds him with young attractive co workers.

I'm just saying that IF she was stalked and followed and it wasn't a local...this is the most likely profile that makes sense and gives him access.

 

[ForensicMass]

I don't disagree with that. But I do think if it wasn't local an employee she worked with would be a pretty good angle..especially considering where she worked...it would put her and her phone in contact with this person...and if there ever was a suave sociopath scouting women by tapping their phones....I think google would kind of be his dream job...an environment that rewards him for his brains, wines and dines him, and surrounds him with young attractive co workers.

I'm just saying that IF she was stalked and followed and it wasn't a local...this is the most likely profile that makes sense and gives him access.

I don't see it, for the fact that electronics are too traceable. And we have to expect that google is willing to help investigators with all things tech in the investigation. They have analyzed her phone records, and anything stored on the cloud (which all my Google friends use).

It is an angle, Sure. But is it, as you say, the most-likely profile? I don't know that we can say that.

I think a random act from a random passerby is equally unlikely. I won't say likely, because I don't think either of those scenarios warrants the word.
If I had to pick suave Google guy with secret phone tracking software, or opportunistic killer who sees a female and randomly decides to attack. I pick the random attack guy- just look at the news-----

AND THIS QUESTION IS FOR ALL, please consider, and share your thoughts!

do we think the attempted attacks in Westborough and northboro this summer were by people that knew the victims? The victims couldn't identify their attackers.

Or what about in Milford this week- she didn't recognize her attacker- he seemingly attacked at random.

Are these seemingly random attacks THAT uncommon? Are they RANDOM? Thoughts?

It just seems more probable to me than some grandiose scheme, you know? Of course you can think what you want. Not trying to make you agree, just pointing out the basis for my thinking.

 

[Evey]

That is not familial DNA testing. That only matches one person to another not what they look like.

Reconstructing what a person looks like uses the phenotype (outward appearance) which is NOT the same as genotypes) information and imlplimants into software that is programmed to take that info and create an image from it. Identifying phenotypes is not what is knew what's new is the technology to take that information and morph it into a physical image of a person. But they do so using phenotype information from your DNA.

That makes sense I just can't remember the article well because it didn't feel important to me unless they plan to do it so I didn't log it in my mind as much as other things I've read.

 

[Evey]

I don't see it, for the fact that electronics are too traceable. And we have to expect that google is willing to help investigators with all things tech in the investigation. They have analyzed her phone records, and anything stored on the cloud (which all my Google friends use).

It is an angle, Sure. But is it, as you say, the most-likely profile? I don't know that we can say that.

I think a random act from a random passerby is equally unlikely. I won't say likely, because I don't think either of those scenarios warrants the word.
If I had to pick suave Google guy with secret phone tracking software, or opportunistic killer who sees a female and randomly decides to attack. I pick the random attack guy- just look at the news-----

AND THIS QUESTION IS FOR ALL, please consider, and share your thoughts!

do we think the attempted attacks in Westborough and northboro this summer were by people that knew the victims? The victims couldn't identify their attackers.

Or what about in Milford this week- she didn't recognize her attacker- he seemingly attacked at random.

Are these seemingly random attacks THAT uncommon? Are they RANDOM? Thoughts?

It just seems more probable to me than some grandiose scheme, you know? Of course you can think what you want. Not trying to make you agree, just pointing out the basis for my thinking.

To me it seems to convenient that all these joggers are being attacked but didn't hear about the first two mentioned but if you take all these and potentially add the other two New York ones then to me this seems like a serial killer going for joggers. And as someone mentioned I also felt the scene was staged. Something about the placing of the trees around it and all that. Almost as if this guy changes up something each time to make us not see a link and realize it's a serial killer.

 

[ForensicMass]

To me it seems to convenient that all these joggers are being attacked but didn't hear about the first two mentioned but if you take all these and potentially add the other two New York ones then to me this seems like a serial killer going for joggers. And as someone mentioned I also felt the scene was staged. Something about the placing of the trees around it and all that. Almost as if this guy changes up something each time to make us not see a link and realize it's a serial killer.

The victim discriptions of the perps in these cases don't match. Milford was white male 6' tall blue eyes, northboro was 2 Hispanic males. Not serially related. Not the work of a serial killer. So again, HOW UNCOMMON ARE THESE RANDOM ATTACKS, REALLY? I know we don't want to think this is some new reality, but maybe it is???
20 years ago, we weren't worried about homegrown jihadist Terrorists and high school students shooting up schools and movie theaters. Now we have a long list of these cases. Could be some cultural shift going on here?

 

[ThinkHard]

To me it seems to convenient that all these joggers are being attacked but didn't hear about the first two mentioned but if you take all these and potentially add the other two New York ones then to me this seems like a serial killer going for joggers. And as someone mentioned I also felt the scene was staged. Something about the placing of the trees around it and all that. Almost as if this guy changes up something each time to make us not see a link and realize it's a serial killer.

What other two NY ones? Was there another beside Karina?