MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[Kickoff61]

If the killer was going to go through the trouble to relocate her to the path, why not relocate her to a far more hidden area of which there are many? Furthermore, it would be highly coincidental that she was dumped so close to home. And if the killer did know that it was close to her home, it would have been even riskier and therefore even more unlikely. All logical indications are that the attack was sudden, and started and ended near the path.

I will say that I understand there are infinite possibilities here. I think we all understand that. I think the whole point of what we are trying to do here is to hypothesize about as many of these possibilities as we can develop, and weigh the circumstances against eachother to determine what is MOST LIKELY to have occurred. We can then use those pointers to develop better and more relevant questions that could help to develop an angle or a lead.

It would be equally risky to attack her near her home base too.

I don't think someone was just sitting in the bushes waiting for anyone to run by that day on that road.

It appears this person knew she ran and had a regular running route. JMO

 

[Kickoff61]

As to why the perp would attack early on, near to her mothers house: to me the answer is because it was the best place in the Vicinity. Good visibility down the road, very wooded. Other areas nearby or on her route were less remote. The place speaks for itself- this is where she ended up, and we are still looking for the guy.

Yes, still looking for this sick guy. That indicates he knows what he is doing. Not dumb, probable history, not caught before and as someone else pointed out here - not someone you would easily suspect.

 

[ForensicMass]

I agree with what Rocky said earlier, it is hard to imagine someone parking vehicle there to be seen, throughout this happening on the path.

Yes, agree. Which is why I believe that if in fact a vehicle was parked there it was not a part of the perpetrators initial plan but rather his plan went south when she got away and he panicked, parked and ran her down.

 

[ForensicMass]

It would be equally risky to attack her near her home base too.

I don't think someone was just sitting in the bushes waiting for anyone to run by that day on that road.

It appears this person knew she ran and had a regular running route. JMO

Or someone learned of her plans to run shortly before she was going to run. And knew where she would be starting out from since he had just seen her return there from the store.

 

[Kickoff61]

As to why the perp would attack early on, near to her mothers house: to me the answer is because it was the best place in the Vicinity. Good visibility down the road, very wooded. Other areas nearby or on her route were less remote. The place speaks for itself- this is where she ended up, and we are still looking for the guy.

?? That doesn't fit with spontaneously attacking, plan going wrong, leaving car and chasing her. (as you brought up)?

 

[Kickoff61]

Or someone learned of her plans to run shortly before she was going to run. And knew where she would be starting out from since he had just seen her return there from the store.

There are endless possibilities without the facts.

 

[ForensicMass]

It would be equally risky to attack her near her home base too.

I don't think someone was just sitting in the bushes waiting for anyone to run by that day on that road.

JMO

I agree it would be risky to attack her near home. It's risky to attack her anywhere along the route. For those that think she might have been brought back to the site to me that adds so much unnecessary risk it makes that possibility extremely unlikely. Killers want to put as much distance between them and the scene as quickly as possible. It is directly evidenced in this case by the way that the body was left along the path and not dragged out further into the woods or buried. If this was someone who knew her routes and had been planning this for weeks or months and had selected that path as his location to commit the crime, we not expect that he would have also prepared a better place to hide the body ? Dig a hole? Figured out a means to transport the body to a location deeper in the woods or away from the site altogether????? To me this points toward someone who was rushed. Someone who had not prepared this area. He was trying to get out of there ASAP.

Therefore I agree it was not someone who waited in the bushes all day.

 

[ForensicMass]

?? That doesn't fit with spontaneously attacking, plan going wrong, leaving car and chasing her. (as you brought up)?

I see what you mean. My thought is that anyone driving in the general area could see that this particular spot was as good as any. And her liklihood of being near this spot was very high relative to her liklihood of being in other locations given her starting point. If he saw where she went and knew where she was coming from he could have made a quick assessment of the area.

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree it would be risky to attack her near home. It's risky to attack her anywhere along the route. For those that think she might have been brought back to the site to me that adds so much unnecessary risk it makes that possibility extremely unlikely. Killers want to put as much distance between them and the scene as quickly as possible. It is directly evidenced in this case by the way that the body was left along the path and not dragged out further into the woods or buried. If this was someone who knew her routes and had been planning this for weeks or months and had selected that path as his location to commit the crime, we not expect that he would have also prepared a better place to hide the body ? Dig a hole? Figured out a means to transport the body to a location deeper in the woods or away from the site altogether????? To me this points toward someone who was rushed. Someone who had not prepared this area. He was trying to get out of there ASAP.

Therefore I agree it was not someone who waited in the bushes all day.

It could still have been planned and things went wrong with her unexpected level of fight that you referred to and I have brought up earlier on. It could be planned and then turned rushed or rushed from the start. Can go either way.

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree it would be risky to attack her near home. It's risky to attack her anywhere along the route. For those that think she might have been brought back to the site to me that adds so much unnecessary risk it makes that possibility extremely unlikely. Killers want to put as much distance between them and the scene as quickly as possible. It is directly evidenced in this case by the way that the body was left along the path and not dragged out further into the woods or buried. If this was someone who knew her routes and had been planning this for weeks or months and had selected that path as his location to commit the crime, we not expect that he would have also prepared a better place to hide the body ? Dig a hole? Figured out a means to transport the body to a location deeper in the woods or away from the site altogether????? To me this points toward someone who was rushed. Someone who had not prepared this area. He was trying to get out of there ASAP.

Therefore I agree it was not someone who waited in the bushes all day.

? If killers want to distance themselves from the scene, why wouldn't that explain the scene elsewhere and moving her a distance away from where it happened?

 

[Kickoff61]

One other thing. People have brought up the issue of him taking her a longer distance away if he is in the area . We know what her schedule was regarding needing to catch a bus back to NYC. But we don't know what his schedule was or if family members were due home or something else planned , etc that day. So there is no saying he was not limited for time.

 

[ForensicMass]

? If killers want to distance themselves from the scene, why wouldn't that explain the scene elsewhere and moving her a distance away from where it happened?

Because the entire time he has her he is at the scene. I don't mean the site of the Murder, I mean her and any place that connects him to her

 

[Rocky1]

I agree it would be risky to attack her near home. It's risky to attack her anywhere along the route. For those that think she might have been brought back to the site to me that adds so much unnecessary risk it makes that possibility extremely unlikely. Killers want to put as much distance between them and the scene as quickly as possible. It is directly evidenced in this case by the way that the body was left along the path and not dragged out further into the woods or buried. If this was someone who knew her routes and had been planning this for weeks or months and had selected that path as his location to commit the crime, we not expect that he would have also prepared a better place to hide the body ? Dig a hole? Figured out a means to transport the body to a location deeper in the woods or away from the site altogether????? To me this points toward someone who was rushed. Someone who had not prepared this area. He was trying to get out of there ASAP.

Therefore I agree it was not someone who waited in the bushes all day.

I agree rushed... saw the opportunity that day and went for it. A serial killer out of the box, young, first kill but not his last, therefore sloppy in some ways with no DNA on file yet. His plan was to do her harm in his mind someday, had luck on his side as far as the timing went.(ie. she was at the cart path at the same time there were no cars coming)
I do believe that a dark SUV was seen on BSR, but, not convinced it wasn't an unmarked state police SUV that arrived soon after.
I am still leaning at someone on a bike that pedaled that road often, saw her jogging at the same time he rode on Sundays got the idea planted in his head, knew the path from his previous rides, pedaled past her that day when she first left her Moms house, "was rushed" saw his opportunity, pedaled past her to the path, and waited.
I may be totally off, and I'd love for anyone to post how I could be wrong, or how it wouldn't fit, to debunk this thought.

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree rushed... saw the opportunity that day and went for it. A serial killer out of the box, young, first kill but not his last, therefore sloppy in some ways with no DNA on file yet. His plan was to do her harm in his mind someday, had luck on his side as far as the timing went.(ie. she was at the cart path at the same time there were no cars coming)
I do believe that a dark SUV was seen on BSR, but, not convinced it wasn't an unmarked state police SUV that arrived soon after.
I am still leaning at someone on a bike that pedaled that road often, saw her jogging at the same time he rode on Sundays got the idea planted in his head, knew the path from his previous rides, pedaled past her that day when she first left her Moms house, "was rushed" saw his opportunity, pedaled past her to the path, and waited.
I may be totally off, and I'd love for anyone to post how I could be wrong, or how it wouldn't fit, to debunk this thought.

I could be totally wrong, but I think if police considered it to be a possibility it was one of their own vehicles a witness saw, they may not have been outwardly addressing the dark SUV the way they did (and warning other LE to keep this case in mind when approaching such vehicles).

I agree with a lot that you say Rocky, however, again I could be wrong, but at this point I do not see this as a younger person.

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree rushed... saw the opportunity that day and went for it. A serial killer out of the box, young, first kill but not his last, therefore sloppy in some ways with no DNA on file yet. His plan was to do her harm in his mind someday, had luck on his side as far as the timing went.(ie. she was at the cart path at the same time there were no cars coming)
I do believe that a dark SUV was seen on BSR, but, not convinced it wasn't an unmarked state police SUV that arrived soon after.
I am still leaning at someone on a bike that pedaled that road often, saw her jogging at the same time he rode on Sundays got the idea planted in his head, knew the path from his previous rides, pedaled past her that day when she first left her Moms house, "was rushed" saw his opportunity, pedaled past her to the path, and waited.
I may be totally off, and I'd love for anyone to post how I could be wrong, or how it wouldn't fit, to debunk this thought.

And as you mention serial killer ,, whenever that is brought up it makes me think of the BTK case killer in the community - no-one suspected and went on for years committing crimes before caught.

 

[ForensicMass]

I agree rushed... saw the opportunity that day and went for it. A serial killer out of the box, young, first kill but not his last, therefore sloppy in some ways with no DNA on file yet. His plan was to do her harm in his mind someday, had luck on his side as far as the timing went.(ie. she was at the cart path at the same time there were no cars coming)
I do believe that a dark SUV was seen on BSR, but, not convinced it wasn't an unmarked state police SUV that arrived soon after.
I am still leaning at someone on a bike that pedaled that road often, saw her jogging at the same time he rode on Sundays got the idea planted in his head, knew the path from his previous rides, pedaled past her that day when she first left her Moms house, "was rushed" saw his opportunity, pedaled past her to the path, and waited.
I may be totally off, and I'd love for anyone to post how I could be wrong, or how it wouldn't fit, to debunk this thought.

I also wonder about the SUV. I would think that before going to the public with this information the police would have vetted this tip. The tipster may have had a tight schedule him/herself, and known that he/she was only in Princeton prior to 3 PM, by illuminating the possibility that the SUV belonged to the police.

One observation I can make about the bicycle theory- I am in my 30s. When I was in my teens there were always people casually riding bicycles all over the place in the pre-Internet age. But now with the exception of denser town centers, I rarely see a casual bicyclist. I travel country backroads all across Massachusetts all the time for my job and the only cyclists I see these days are those who are very serious about it and are dressed for the task. would think a casual wandering bicyclist would likely have been spotted and would stick out somewhat. I don't live in Princeton but I've been there at least 10 times in the last few years and I have never seen anyone on a bicycle While there except for very young kids at the store.

 

[Rocky1]

I also wonder about the SUV. I would think that before going to the public with this information the police would have vetted this tip. The tipster may have had a tight schedule him/herself, and known that he/she was only in Princeton prior to 3 PM, by illuminating the possibility that the SUV belonged to the police.

One observation I can make about the bicycle theory- I am in my 30s. When I was in my teens there were always people casually riding bicycles all over the place in the pre-Internet age. But now with the exception of denser town centers, I rarely see a casual bicyclist. I travel country backroads all across Massachusetts all the time for my job and the only cyclists I see these days are those who are very serious about it and are dressed for the task. would think a casual wandering bicyclist would likely have been spotted and would stick out somewhat. I don't live in Princeton but I've been there at least 10 times in the last few years and I have never seen anyone on a bicycle While there except for very young kids at the store.

I was picturing being dressed for the task. (helmet where defending herself by hitting him in the head was useless) Someone who with sunglasses and a helmet on keeping his head down while riding away could hide scratches on his face, Unlike someone walking.
I live very close to Princeton, on a rural road, and I see many bicyclists during the summer months. Like you said, "dressed for the task," and I never think twice about them. That's what got me thinking about a bike being used. If I see someone walking, other than a neighbor that I know, It always throws up red flags.
I am stuck on someone that lives fairly close by, that knew of her and the area, and had been watching her, somehow, and that's why I was thinking Bike/on foot, rather than a vehicle . That's hard to do from a car, unless you keep driving up and down BSR, and I would think after a few of those passes, someone would call the police.
I could be way off.

 

[Madeleine74]

Serial Killer... or ..... Rapist who ended up killing because his victim fought back with everything she had? Yes there is a difference.

Right now I think it's the rapist scenario.

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree with Rocky, it is hard to fit the scenario of the vehicle into this. That is what led me to think it was used briefly for some other reason by someone nearby.

It is also hard to fit in someone from out of town doing it in such a way involving this path. IF the person was from out of town in the vehicle and she fought that much to get away, it is hard to believe the person would risk chasing her onto a path unknown as to whether people are around or not and continue with everything. (leaving vehicle behind too).

It still seems to me to be someone nearby, or someone visiting frequently nearby. IF this is the case, then I do believe the person is the last person people in the area would suspect.

But sociopaths are known for being friendly, deceiving, successful, etc.

 

[ForensicMass]

I was picturing being dressed for the task. (helmet where defending herself by hitting him in the head was useless) Someone who with sunglasses and a helmet on keeping his head down while riding away could hide scratches on his face, Unlike someone walking.
I live very close to Princeton, on a rural road, and I see many bicyclists during the summer months. Like you said, "dressed for the task," and I never think twice about them. That's what got me thinking about a bike being used. If I see someone walking, other than a neighbor that I know, It always throws up red flags.
I am stuck on someone that lives fairly close by, that knew of her and the area, and had been watching her, somehow, and that's why I was thinking Bike/on foot, rather than a vehicle . That's hard to do from a car, unless you keep driving up and down BSR, and I would think after a few of those passes, someone would call the police.
I could be way off.

I don't think you are way off. But with respect to an SUV driving up and down the road several times, i'm not sure it would attract as much attention as you think. Here's why I believe this: although BSR does get a decent amount of traffic, most cars passing through here are doing just that. Using that road to get to somewhere else. So even though several cars may have passed the subject vehicle they likely only would have seen it once even if it was circling around the area. Similarly, as we know, most of the houses that are located on BSR do not have a view of the road. In order for someone to notice that this car was lurking around they themselves may have had to have been lurking around. And if a random good Samaritan was lurking around they would've had a good chance of seeing what went down with Vanessa. I think the area was relatively quiet during the period in question. Very few people to witness anything that had been going on.