MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[ForensicMass]

I agree with Rocky, it is hard to fit the scenario of the vehicle into this. That is what led me to think it was used briefly for some other reason by someone nearby.

It is also hard to fit in someone from out of town doing it in such a way involving this path. IF the person was from out of town in the vehicle and she fought that much to get away, it is hard to believe the person would risk chasing her onto a path unknown as to whether people are around or not and continue with everything. (leaving vehicle behind too).

It still seems to me to be someone nearby, or someone visiting frequently nearby. IF this is the case, then I do believe the person is the last person people in the area would suspect.

But sociopaths are known for being friendly, deceiving, successful, etc.

I agree with most of this up until the part where you express that it is hard to believe that the abductor would chase her into the woods. We have someone that is willing to attack in broad daylight. And not only do we have that. But now his abduction attempt has failed he himself may have been injured and he is furious. He's been lurking around the area for maybe a half an hour. Not a very long time but long enough to get a sense that no one is really around. All of this still seems simpler to me then the theories that involve someone who researched MapMyRun or plotted Vanessa's habits for months. That scenario is much more complicated. Therefore I see it as less likely. Even though I too have difficulty seeing how a car could fit into a plan like this, that a vehicle was parked in that immediate vicinity seems pretty clear based on what little the police have released. If in fact a vehicle was seen parked near that spot right at that time it seems very likely that this driver was involved. And it is also clear to me as I previously stated that parking the car on the side of that road fully exposed to passing traffic was never a part of the killers plan rather it was an incidental and unavoidable situation that happened when she escaped and he entered into damage control mode. I am not set on this theory By the way i'm just holding it up to see if It can be demonstrated that something else was more likely

 

[Kickoff61]

I agree with most of this up until the part where you express that it is hard to believe that the abductor would chase her into the woods. We have someone that is willing to attack in broad daylight. And not only do we have that. But now his abduction attempt has failed he himself may have been injured and he is furious. He's been lurking around the area for maybe a half an hour. Not a very long time but long enough to get a sense that no one is really around. All of this still seems simpler to me then the theories that involve someone who researched MapMyRun or plotted Vanessa's habits for months. That scenario is much more complicated. Therefore I see it as less likely. Even though I too have difficulty seeing how a car could fit into a plan like this, that a vehicle was parked in that immediate vicinity seems pretty clear based on what little the police have released. If in fact a vehicle was seen parked near that spot right at that time it seems very likely that this driver was involved. And it is also clear to me as I previously stated that parking the car on the side of that road fully exposed to passing traffic was never a part of the killers plan rather it was an incidental and unavoidable situation that happened when she escaped and he entered into damage control mode. I am not set on this theory By the way i'm just holding it up to see if It can be demonstrated that something else was more likely

It seems to me your theory of someone from out of town unfamiliar with the area, attempting to abduct and having it go 'wrong' with her escaping would have taken off. (even if furious). As a failed attempt, rather than jumping out of the car, leaving it to be seen and doing the rest of this on a path without knowing what is on that path, who may walk the path or how busy this may path be to hikers, etc. It is the 'unknown' that doesn't quite fit in.

I mentioned there could be a running link with runners, but not sure that someone had to follow her maprun ap or whatever that is. If the person is in the immediate area, it would be easy to see her on her regular runs by their house as it is known she ran these routes regularly.

I also believe law enforcement when they said he is familiar with the area she is found. That would be someone in the area or someone visiting frequently to be familiar with it.

 

[ForensicMass]

It seems to me your theory of someone from out of town unfamiliar with the area, attempting to abduct and having it go 'wrong' with her escaping would have taken off. (even if furious). As a failed attempt, rather than jumping out of the car, leaving it to be seen and doing the rest of this on a path without knowing what is on that path, who may walk the path or how busy this may path be to hikers, etc. It is the 'unknown' that doesn't quite fit in.

I mentioned there could be a running link with runners, but not sure that someone had to follow her maprun ap or whatever that is. If the person is in the immediate area, it would be easy to see her on her regular runs by their house as it is known she ran these routes regularly.
I also believe law enforcement when they said he is familiar with the area she is found. That would be someone in the area or someone visiting frequently to be familiar with it.

Obviously I am not claiming to know any of this, and you could be right the abductor could have tried to flee the scene. He had two options -fight or flight. From what we know about him for sure - he attempted to abduct a woman in broad daylight, he killed her within earshot of a couple of houses and certainly the road, and then he burned her most likely with a torch. To me he does not seem like someone who would rather run than fight. He was going to show her who was in control. This is what he is all about. No matter who did this or how they did it, there was a decent degree of gambling involved on their behalf that they could get it done and get away. Personally I think this entire encounter happened in 15 minutes time Possibly even less.


On the "familiarity with the area" is law enforcement basing their assumption that we are dealing with a local on the fact that the murder happened on the path ? Have we additional reasons to believe this? Again I have not discounted that we could be dealing with a local I am just trying to inspect all possibilities. I will take that side as well as soon as we are done with the outsider.

Although we know she visited Princeton fairly regularly, and we have some data from map my run showing her routes, I am not sure how well we have determined the "regularity" of her runs. Can someone with map my run check her profile and determine the frequency and timing of the runs she took? It would be beneficial to know if she always ran at roughly the same time, before catching a bus home, or if it was based more on how she felt day to day. Did she run more than once in a weekend? Or just Sunday?

 

[ForensicMass]

Ok, I redownloaded the map my run app and checked out VMs history. For
Myself. As has been reported, only runs from sept 2015 and earlier can be seen. Of the Princeton runs, the days and times she ran were Sat Aug 22 at 9:32 AM, Thurs sept 3 at 7:14 AM, Friday Sept 4 at 12:02 PM, Sunday Sept 6 at 10:25AM.

From this it seems like she was someone who runs when she felt best. Not at a set time or day. She always ran at variable times and for variable distances. This is what I do. I go when i feel I've got good energy for it, and I extend the length of the workout if I'm feeling good.

Keeping in mind that this is year old data, it still is useful in my mind, as runners dont tend to change their general behaviors much. If her crohns was slowing her down, I'd expect she'd be running less frequently and shorter distances, but I'm no medical expert. In essence, this at least seems to show that it would be difficult to anticipate precisely which days and times she might be running. It does not appear that she had a regular schedule established. This would make it much harder for someone to lie in wait, and tends to bolster my previous thinking that this was done by someone who had immediate knowledge of her plan to run on that particular day around that particular time.

Should correct the previous statement about when she would be passing the trail. Her shortest mapped run, an out-back, she headed north on BSR to Connor lane intersection, then turned around and headed back. Total time of 23:30 mins for 2 miles - more like a brisk walking pace.

Another course she ran north again on BSR, thence to boylston ave thence Mtn road up to Thompson rd, then back down through Allen hill road and radford road, and back down BSR, again passing the cart path.

Based on her average times, she would initially pass the cart part at only about 5-6 minutes into her trip. In the last run I just described, she would have passed it a second time at about 55 minutes in.

In the short out and back she'd have passed it at 5 mins and again at about 15 minutes.

 

[Rocky1]

Ok, I redownloaded the map my run app and checked out VMs history. For
Myself. As has been reported, only runs from sept 2015 and earlier can be seen. Of the Princeton runs, the days and times she ran were Sat Aug 22 at 9:32 AM, Thurs sept 3 at 7:14 AM, Friday Sept 4 at 12:02 PM, Sunday Sept 6 at 10:25AM.

From this it seems like she was someone who runs when she felt best. Not at a set time or day. She always ran at variable times and for variable distances. This is what I do. I go when i feel I've got good energy for it, and I extend the length of the workout if I'm feeling good.

Keeping in mind that this is year old data, it still is useful in my mind, as runners dont tend to change their general behaviors much. If her crohns was slowing her down, I'd expect she'd be running less frequently and shorter distances, but I'm no medical expert. In essence, this at least seems to show that it would be difficult to anticipate precisely which days and times she might be running. It does not appear that she had a regular schedule established. This would make it much harder for someone to lie in wait, and tends to bolster my previous thinking that this was done by someone who had immediate knowledge of her plan to run on that particular day around that particular time.

Should correct the previous statement about when she would be passing the trail. Her shortest mapped run, an out-back, she headed north on BSR to Connor lane intersection, then turned around and headed back. Total time of 23:30 mins for 2 miles - more like a brisk walking pace.

Another course she ran north again on BSR, thence to boylston ave thence Mtn road up to Thompson rd, then back down through Allen hill road and radford road, and back down BSR, again passing the cart path.

Based on her average times, she would initially pass the cart part at only about 5-6 minutes into her trip. In the last run I just described, she would have passed it a second time at about 55 minutes in.

In the short out and back she'd have passed it at 5 mins and again at about 15 minutes.

And then there was the report from LE, that said she was out for a walk, and not a jog.

 

[Rocky1]

Ok, I redownloaded the map my run app and checked out VMs history. For
Myself. As has been reported, only runs from sept 2015 and earlier can be seen. Of the Princeton runs, the days and times she ran were Sat Aug 22 at 9:32 AM, Thurs sept 3 at 7:14 AM, Friday Sept 4 at 12:02 PM, Sunday Sept 6 at 10:25AM.

From this it seems like she was someone who runs when she felt best. Not at a set time or day. She always ran at variable times and for variable distances. This is what I do. I go when i feel I've got good energy for it, and I extend the length of the workout if I'm feeling good.

Keeping in mind that this is year old data, it still is useful in my mind, as runners dont tend to change their general behaviors much. If her crohns was slowing her down, I'd expect she'd be running less frequently and shorter distances, but I'm no medical expert. In essence, this at least seems to show that it would be difficult to anticipate precisely which days and times she might be running. It does not appear that she had a regular schedule established. This would make it much harder for someone to lie in wait, and tends to bolster my previous thinking that this was done by someone who had immediate knowledge of her plan to run on that particular day around that particular time.

Should correct the previous statement about when she would be passing the trail. Her shortest mapped run, an out-back, she headed north on BSR to Connor lane intersection, then turned around and headed back. Total time of 23:30 mins for 2 miles - more like a brisk walking pace.

Another course she ran north again on BSR, thence to boylston ave thence Mtn road up to Thompson rd, then back down through Allen hill road and radford road, and back down BSR, again passing the cart path.

Based on her average times, she would initially pass the cart part at only about 5-6 minutes into her trip. In the last run I just described, she would have passed it a second time at about 55 minutes in.

In the short out and back she'd have passed it at 5 mins and again at about 15 minutes.

Although Sept 3rd and 4th were leading into the Labor day weekend, it does show that she was in Princeton during the week sometimes, and not only on the weekends.

 

[The Farm]

Wow you have all been so busy here today! I had to go back 4 pages to catch up.
ForensicMass, thank you for all the homework and I am still mulling it all around.
As I am with all the input today.
Still have that nagging feeling though:::: A local that no one expects which I can not seem to get pass.
But I could be off.

 

[ForensicMass]

Although Sept 3rd and 4th were leading into the Labor day weekend, it does show that she was in Princeton during the week sometimes, and not only on the weekends.

That's true. I do the same thing in visiting my folks- As do a number of my friends- take extended weekends.

Still, doesn't it make it seem difficult to know the specific timing of her workouts?

 

[ForensicMass]

I noticed something interesting - if you have google earth (not google maps) and you look up Brooks Station Road, the date of the aerial image is Tuesday August 23, 2016 - only a couple of weeks after the murder. Also of interest, if you pan over to the electric company parking lot, there is one lone vehicle parked in the lot, and it appears to be a DARK SUV.

 

[ForensicMass]

Wow you have all been so busy here today! I had to go back 4 pages to catch up.
ForensicMass, thank you for all the homework and I am still mulling it all around.
As I am with all the input today.
Still have that nagging feeling though:::: A local that no one expects which I can not seem to get pass.
But I could be off.

Thanks Farm! I hope I can help to knock something loose here. I really believe this is a solvable case.

 

[Aleph]

I could be totally wrong, but I think if police considered it to be a possibility it was one of their own vehicles a witness saw, they may not have been outwardly addressing the dark SUV the way they did (and warning other LE to keep this case in mind when approaching such vehicles).

I agree with a lot that you say Rocky, however, again I could be wrong, but at this point I do not see this as a younger person.

(BBM)

What's your thinking there? It would have to be someone pretty strong to feel confident about going into combat with an athletic young woman.

 

[monkeypants]

Imo this was a random attack, from a local who was out hunting. She was in the wrong place at the wrong time. I do think it's a sadist who has hunted before and this was an escalation....JMO.

 

[jellybeanz]

I agree rushed... saw the opportunity that day and went for it. A serial killer out of the box, young, first kill but not his last, therefore sloppy in some ways with no DNA on file yet. His plan was to do her harm in his mind someday, had luck on his side as far as the timing went.(ie. she was at the cart path at the same time there were no cars coming)
I do believe that a dark SUV was seen on BSR, but, not convinced it wasn't an unmarked state police SUV that arrived soon after.
I am still leaning at someone on a bike that pedaled that road often, saw her jogging at the same time he rode on Sundays got the idea planted in his head, knew the path from his previous rides, pedaled past her that day when she first left her Moms house, "was rushed" saw his opportunity, pedaled past her to the path, and waited.
I may be totally off, and I'd love for anyone to post how I could be wrong, or how it wouldn't fit, to debunk this thought.

I think this sounds highly plausible.

 

[Rocky1]

Serial Killer... or ..... Rapist who ended up killing because his victim fought back with everything she had? Yes there is a difference.

Right now I think it's the rapist scenario.

Which one was Ted Bundy?

 

[Rocky1]

That's true. I do the same thing in visiting my folks- As do a number of my friends- take extended weekends.

Still, doesn't it make it seem difficult to know the specific timing of her workouts?

It sure does.
Tough to figure out with so little to go on.
So far, we know it was a male, and an SUV was spotted parked on BSR around the time of the murder, that she visited her Mom every other weekend, and went to dinner with her father the night before.
That's about it besides her education/work/living history.

 

[Rocky1]

I noticed something interesting - if you have google earth (not google maps) and you look up Brooks Station Road, the date of the aerial image is Tuesday August 23, 2016 - only a couple of weeks after the murder. Also of interest, if you pan over to the electric company parking lot, there is one lone vehicle parked in the lot, and it appears to be a DARK SUV.

I see the SUV too. It would be nice to find out what time Google captured that image. That would weed out an employees' vehicle if it was taken say after 5 pm.
The Mountain Barn restaurant next door has an empty parking lot, but it would because it is closed on Tuesday, so that doesn't help much.

 

[ForensicMass]

I see the SUV too. It would be nice to find out what time Google captured that image. That would weed out an employees' vehicle if it was taken say after 5 pm.
The Mountain Barn restaurant next door has an empty parking lot, but it would because it is closed on Tuesday, so that doesn't help much.

There are obvious long shadows cast in a northwesterly direction, indicating the sun is still to the southeast, which would put the timing of the photo more toward morning. (Any experts have a different opinion, by aug 23 the sun is well retreating from the June 21 apex.)

 

[liz b.]

Which one was Ted Bundy?

technically a murderer who was essentially a necrophiliac, jmo

 

[Rocky1]

There are obvious long shadows cast in a northwesterly direction, indicating the sun is still to the southeast, which would put the timing of the photo more toward morning. (Any experts have a different opinion, by aug 23 the sun is well retreating from the June 21 apex.)

I went traveling around on google, looking for a clock, and was side tracked. So far I haven't found one. Neither churches near the common have one on the bell tower.

 

[ForensicMass]

I went traveling around on google, looking for a clock, and was side tracked. So far I haven't found one. Neither churches near the common have one on the bell tower.

Good thought- The street view images in google appear to be from August 2011, though. You would have to find a bell tower with the aerial imagery in google earth (taken aug 23 2016), and since they patch the aerial images together it probably has to be nearby Princeton to have been captured at same time/day