MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[Kickoff61]

See, I would think that a local would be the last one to bring her body back there because he would know of many other better places in the general geographical area to dump her without being seen. No one in their right mind would return to this location where a dead body was located. Nor would they bring a dead body to this location if they could bring it somewhere else more easily. At least in my mind. Of course we could be talking about someone who was not in their right mind but even people who are not in their right mind don't want to spend the rest of their lives in jail

That is why I am saying the reason he would involve the vehicle is if he did not have the means on him to get rid of the DNA after she fought and his DNA was on her. And had to go get it. Even if what he was going to get was as small as a pack of matches, that he didn't have on foot . But, lived close enough to do it quickly.

 

[dub]

While I'm still leaning toward crime of opportunity that wasn't planned in advance against VANESSA, I am starting to wonder if it was planned in advance in anticipation of meeting the opportunity.

In other words, a fantasy acted out and/or a routine that he has followed in the past.

total speculation, thinking aloud.

BBM
I'm currently thinking along those same lines.

Based on recent discussion I've reoriented my way of thinking on this case (although not in any kind of groundbreaking way haha)

At first I thought this was a solo local or semi-local in his mid-late 20s.

Now I'm thinking 2 dudes, possibly brothers, either both teenagers or, more likely, one teenager 15-18 and one a little older like 18-22. Not from Princeton, but from a nearby town.

Like you said, this kind of crime being something they had discussed before but had never done; they were driving around Princeton for whatever reason, saw the opportunity, and decided to go for it.

Whoever pointed out the possibility of perp(s) trying to get her in the car, but having her get away almost immediately, seems very reasonable in the scheme of all this. Same with the concept of leaving her there despite having a car, due to freaking out and wanting to get out of there as quickly as possible.

 

[Kickoff61]

See, I would think that a local would be the last one to bring her body back there because he would know of many other better places in the general geographical area to dump her without being seen. No one in their right mind would return to this location where a dead body was located. Nor would they bring a dead body to this location if they could bring it somewhere else more easily. At least in my mind. Of course we could be talking about someone who was not in their right mind but even people who are not in their right mind don't want to spend the rest of their lives in jail

No-one in their right mind would do this kind of murder in broad daylight on a Sunday afternoon in a neighborhood to begin with.

And from in or out of town, leave her at that particular location in that way.

 

[Inthedetails]

No-one in their right mind would do this kind of murder in broad daylight on a Sunday afternoon in a neighborhood to begin with.

And from in or out of town, leave her at that particular location in that way.

Right.

This perp is either really dumb....or very confident.

I'm leaning toward confident. As in super confident in his criminal work and pleased with himself for hurting the community and foiling the cops.

But, it could be either - dumb or confident. Probably not both, though.

jmo

 

[ForensicMass]

Thanks for pulling that up again. I'm reminded that the burns were likely more than cigarette burns.

It does appear there was some burning on the ground there and the fallen tree. But that ground was the dryest tinder imaginable. I think that amount of burning could certainly have been incidental if using a torch to burn someone who was lying on the ground. Conversely, it looks quite concentrated in one spot. A fire lit to those ground materials in efforts to burn skin would seem to me to have been more significant, and could very easily have become out of control in those dry conditions. I do see the ash you refer to. But it's not THAT much. Any little campfire I have ever lit has generated more than what is apparent in that image, at least.

 

[Kickoff61]

Right.

This perp is either really dumb....or very confident.

I'm leaning toward confident. As in super confident in his criminal work and pleased with himself for hurting the community and foiling the cops.

But, it could be either - dumb or confident. Probably not both, though.

jmo

That is what leads me to think like you mention - super confident and possibly super comfortable with the area as well.

 

[ForensicMass]

My guess would be that he had what he needed.

He was prepared, he noticed VM, he attacked.

Please let there be a break in the case soon.

This simple theory resonates with me whether it was a local or an outsider. I think this might all be true.

 

[ForensicMass]

I can't.
Another question I have, is, if he is local, why bring the car and not only take the risk of being seen, but also take the risk of LE hap hazzardly driving down BSR, seeing it abandoned, and running the plate number to begin with?

Agree. Conundrum. If local, aware of the path and planned to commit the crime there, then absolutely no need to involve a vehicle on BSR- though he could have been from a distance away, and needed to drive to get close. Then parked near Mountain barn. I think the final location of the phone being over by mtn barn was not her location but his. The phone was missing. He had to know she had one- when running, you can't have it in a pocket. It would have been in her hand or strapped to her arm. He took it in the attack, then dealt with her, then realized he still had it as he made his escape, and shut it off?

 

[Kickoff61]

Well, IMO someone local who doesn't have the means on him to get rid of the DNA after an unexpected fight, would be taking a big risk 'walking' to get something , back to scene and back home with scratches.

- And someone out of town parking there throughout the entire ordeal even more of a risk.

Hopefully law enforcement will have that facial sketch from testing soon that was mentioned earlier and have much more with their 1,000 tips to solve this soon, because all this is so much speculation without facts.

 

[Rocky1]

It does appear there was some burning on the ground there and the fallen tree. But that ground was the dryest tinder imaginable. I think that amount of burning could certainly have been incidental if using a torch to burn someone who was lying on the ground. Conversely, it looks quite concentrated in one spot. A fire lit to those ground materials in efforts to burn skin would seem to me to have been more significant, and could very easily have become out of control in those dry conditions. I do see the ash you refer to. But it's not THAT much. Any little campfire I have ever lit has generated more than what is apparent in that image, at least.

Keep in mind that LE took most of that crime scene back to the lab. I am sure there was a lot more there.

 

[monkeypants]

Right.

This perp is either really dumb....or very confident.

I'm leaning toward confident. As in super confident in his criminal work and pleased with himself for hurting the community and foiling the cops.

But, it could be either - dumb or confident. Probably not both, though.

jmo

Escalating....he's working his way up in these crimes...this is his biggest yet tho.

 

[Rocky1]

Agree. Conundrum. If local, aware of the path and planned to commit the crime there, then absolutely no need to involve a vehicle on BSR- though he could have been from a distance away, and needed to drive to get close. Then parked near Mountain barn. I think the final location of the phone being over by mtn barn was not her location but his. The phone was missing. He had to know she had one- when running, you can't have it in a pocket. It would have been in her hand or strapped to her arm. He took it in the attack, then dealt with her, then realized he still had it as he made his escape, and shut it off?

There was a ping off the tower next to the Mountain Barn. That may have not been the location of her phone physically.
I was looking at Google Maps, and I noticed a tower that was a lot closer to her on Boylston Ave, and wondered why her phone didn't ping off that tower. I took a ride down that road, and the tower is there, but there is no antena, so after seeing that, it all made sense.
It doesn't make sense to me that this guy would carry her phone around, and be tracked. I know the time of the ping was discussed before, and I could be wrong without going back, but I believe that ping off the Mountain Barn tower was at 2:45? this is my theory of what happened to her phone.
I think he burned it along with her clothing, and the ping happened at that time he either shut it off, or from the failure of the electronics from burning it, and to me the timeline also fits.

 

[Rocky1]

Agree. Conundrum. If local, aware of the path and planned to commit the crime there, then absolutely no need to involve a vehicle on BSR- though he could have been from a distance away, and needed to drive to get close. Then parked near Mountain barn. I think the final location of the phone being over by mtn barn was not her location but his. The phone was missing. He had to know she had one- when running, you can't have it in a pocket. It would have been in her hand or strapped to her arm. He took it in the attack, then dealt with her, then realized he still had it as he made his escape, and shut it off?

Using the theory that he parked at/near the Mountain Barn, says that he would have had to walk 3 plus miles on the road, or cut through the woods. I am still hoping that LE used trailing dogs through the woods, and if they did and was tracked to Rt 31, I would think they would have asked people that saw someone walking down Rt.31 to call the tip line but can't say for sure.
This also throws the theory of an SUV being parked on BSR out the window,

Edit:
Just to add, If he did park near the Mountain Barn, and walked the 3 miles to the cart path, how did he know when/if she was leaving her moms house,?... unless you are using the theory that he waited in wait for a long period of time for her.

 

[ForensicMass]

Well, IMO someone local who doesn't have the means on him to get rid of the DNA after an unexpected fight, would be taking a big risk 'walking' to get something , back to scene and back home with scratches.

- And someone out of town parking there throughout the entire ordeal even more of a risk.

Hopefully law enforcement will have that facial sketch from testing soon that was mentioned earlier and have much more with their 1,000 tips to solve this soon, because all this is so much speculation without facts.

Agree. All avenues seem to involve lots of risk.


Do we have any general feeling on how long this attack took? I don't think we are talking about a car parked for THAT long. Curious to hear what people think. In my mind, it was 15 minutes, maybe less.

 

[ForensicMass]

Using the theory that he parked at/near the Mountain Barn, says that he would have had to walk 3 plus miles on the road, or cut through the woods. I am still hoping that LE used trailing dogs through the woods, and if they did and was tracked to Rt 31, I would think they would have asked people that saw someone walking down Rt.31 to call the tip line but can't say for sure.
This also throws the theory of an SUV being parked on BSR out the window,

Solid points. If parked at mountain barn, he would undoubtedly have used the woods. It's less than a mile and he wouldn't have been seen. Obvious choice over roadways. But, as you mention, why didn't the dogs catch a scent. If on foot through the woods I would think the dogs would pick that up pretty readily. I have a friend from highschool who owns a team of search dogs. I haven't spoke. With him in years, but I'm going to ask him his thoughts on whether it might be possible that the dogs wouldn't have been able to track the suspects scent through the woods.

 

[Rocky1]

Agree. All avenues seem to involve lots of risk.


Do we have any general feeling on how long this attack took? I don't think we are talking about a car parked for THAT long. Curious to hear what people think. In my mind, it was 15 minutes, maybe less.

I'm saying at least an hour. I think in his sick little mind he had his fun with her.
To me 15 minutes would say his only motive was to murder. I won't say that she was sexually assaulted, because Le has not said that, but if she wasn't, one has to ask why they were checking every registered sex offender in the area.

 

[DexterMorgan]

BBM
I'm currently thinking along those same lines.

Based on recent discussion I've reoriented my way of thinking on this case (although not in any kind of groundbreaking way haha)

At first I thought this was a solo local or semi-local in his mid-late 20s.

Now I'm thinking 2 dudes, possibly brothers, either both teenagers or, more likely, one teenager 15-18 and one a little older like 18-22. Not from Princeton, but from a nearby town.

Like you said, this kind of crime being something they had discussed before but had never done; they were driving around Princeton for whatever reason, saw the opportunity, and decided to go for it.

Whoever pointed out the possibility of perp(s) trying to get her in the car, but having her get away almost immediately, seems very reasonable in the scheme of all this. Same with the concept of leaving her there despite having a car, due to freaking out and wanting to get out of there as quickly as possible.

Agree. It could be 2 local meth addicts.

 

[Rocky1]

Solid points. If parked at mountain barn, he would undoubtedly have used the woods. It's less than a mile and he wouldn't have been seen. Obvious choice over roadways. But, as you mention, why didn't the dogs catch a scent. If on foot through the woods I would think the dogs would pick that up pretty readily. I have a friend from highschool who owns a team of search dogs. I haven't spoke. With him in years, but I'm going to ask him his thoughts on whether it might be possible that the dogs wouldn't have been able to track the suspects scent through the woods.

They may have used a tracking dog to find VM, having an article of clothing to go on.
They would have used a trailing dog to try and find the perp. trailing dogs smell foliage etc rather than clothing.

https://www.policeone.com/police-pr...Trailing-versus-tracking-The-keys-to-success/

 

[Rocky1]

Agree. It could be 2 local meth addicts.

What would you say the motive was?

 

[Inthedetails]

I'm saying at least an hour. I think in his sick little mind he had his fun with her.
To me 15 minutes would say his only motive was to murder. I won't say that she was sexually assaulted, because Le has not said that, but if she wasn't, one has to ask why they were checking every registered sex offender in the area.

She may have been SA and we just don't know. But I will bring up something delicate and with respect. As some of you may remember, I keep her diagnosis with Crohn's disease in my mind. I don't have Crohn's but I know a young woman who does and I am somewhat familiar with how the condition can limit intimacy. One of the symptoms of the disease is frequent bowel movements. I can't help but wonder if she had an accident during the frightful experience which then stopped the perp from SA'ing her.

I HAVE NO IDEA if this happened. Again, I mean to be delicate and respectful to the victim, and I could be totally off-base. But from my second-hand knowledge of the condition, this is a possibility, imo.

jmopinion and only an opinion