Fierljepper
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- Oct 24, 2013
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The more I think and read about the case, the more unlikely I find the McCann involvement scenario's. I also discovered a kind of pattern in all those theories and that is that:
1) the starting premise always is that "they behaved suspiciously, they had inconsistencies in there statements and they are doctors, so they must be guilty"
2) the blood and cadaver dogs therefore must also be right and so that provides hard evidence supporting them being guilty.
3) ... (here it typically stops or wanders off into crazy conspiracy theories about Cameron, nuclear plants, money laundering, PJ vs SY battles, etc.)
However, after point 2) a serious issue emerges since (so far) it has been impossible to connect these dots (i.e. inconsistencies about the evening and dog findings 3 months later) by composing a reasonably simple scenario explaining the events on May 3rd (if somebody has found one, I am very keen for a link!). The issue is that if you want to connect the dogs, you almost automatically land on both GM and KM being involved. The reason is that it requires Maddie to be dead for >90mins to produce the 'smell of death', hence she must have died already that afternoon and therefore both must know about it (nope, don't buy the photo being taken a day earlier, the digital photo has a time-stamp so this must have been ruled out). So, two parents involved in the death of a child is already quite a stretch, esp. since most child murders involving parents are committed by only 1 of the parents. And then a couple of hours later they have to both go absolutely relaxed to a Tapas dinner after their daughter just died, rather than being worried about how to dispose of the body? And then KM being close to going hysterical after she found Maddie missing? Really? They possess an unequaled personal resilience and have superb acting skills? Yeah, quite unlikely you'd the say, but hey the way out is that all T9 statements about their observations must be false and concocted. But then it no longer is a very realistic and simple scenario, is it? And why on earth would anybody of the T9 be so stupid to take such a huge personal risk all these years.
Put all these complexities, that immediately frustrate construing a reasonably simple scenario involving the McCann's, and add the lack of a clear motive and the lack of a good opportunity to dispose of their daughter's body, against the utterly simple scenario that she was abducted by only one person who had a clear motive (pedo-sexual, retaliation, ransom or just somebody who envy's doctor's power or the happiness of a fortunate 'upper' class), a low risk opportunity and a car to instantly vanish from the park without a trace to any remote location. And then think one more time about the beauty of Occam's razor. I therefore believe it is much better to start with a simple scenario that fits the minimal data and then to see whether verifiable predictions could be made, rather than to start with a bias of guilt towards one or two persons and then try to compose scenario's from there and then get drowned in unnecessary complexities since you picked the wrong premise.
Just my view at this moment in time and it can be totally different tomorrow
1) the starting premise always is that "they behaved suspiciously, they had inconsistencies in there statements and they are doctors, so they must be guilty"
2) the blood and cadaver dogs therefore must also be right and so that provides hard evidence supporting them being guilty.
3) ... (here it typically stops or wanders off into crazy conspiracy theories about Cameron, nuclear plants, money laundering, PJ vs SY battles, etc.)
However, after point 2) a serious issue emerges since (so far) it has been impossible to connect these dots (i.e. inconsistencies about the evening and dog findings 3 months later) by composing a reasonably simple scenario explaining the events on May 3rd (if somebody has found one, I am very keen for a link!). The issue is that if you want to connect the dogs, you almost automatically land on both GM and KM being involved. The reason is that it requires Maddie to be dead for >90mins to produce the 'smell of death', hence she must have died already that afternoon and therefore both must know about it (nope, don't buy the photo being taken a day earlier, the digital photo has a time-stamp so this must have been ruled out). So, two parents involved in the death of a child is already quite a stretch, esp. since most child murders involving parents are committed by only 1 of the parents. And then a couple of hours later they have to both go absolutely relaxed to a Tapas dinner after their daughter just died, rather than being worried about how to dispose of the body? And then KM being close to going hysterical after she found Maddie missing? Really? They possess an unequaled personal resilience and have superb acting skills? Yeah, quite unlikely you'd the say, but hey the way out is that all T9 statements about their observations must be false and concocted. But then it no longer is a very realistic and simple scenario, is it? And why on earth would anybody of the T9 be so stupid to take such a huge personal risk all these years.
Put all these complexities, that immediately frustrate construing a reasonably simple scenario involving the McCann's, and add the lack of a clear motive and the lack of a good opportunity to dispose of their daughter's body, against the utterly simple scenario that she was abducted by only one person who had a clear motive (pedo-sexual, retaliation, ransom or just somebody who envy's doctor's power or the happiness of a fortunate 'upper' class), a low risk opportunity and a car to instantly vanish from the park without a trace to any remote location. And then think one more time about the beauty of Occam's razor. I therefore believe it is much better to start with a simple scenario that fits the minimal data and then to see whether verifiable predictions could be made, rather than to start with a bias of guilt towards one or two persons and then try to compose scenario's from there and then get drowned in unnecessary complexities since you picked the wrong premise.
Just my view at this moment in time and it can be totally different tomorrow
