Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #36

[Lyall0814]

That’s why IMO corroboration is key. If a testimony is corroborated with evidence then it’s valid, if it isn’t it isn’t. There have been many thousands of sightings, tip-offs & leads. Out of all of those thousands of individual pieces of information, Helge B’s testimony was one reason there’s an active murder investigation in process. IMO if his testimony wasn’t assessed thoroughly, deemed credible & corroborated with evidence it would have been just another one of the thousands of others.

IMO Helge B is exactly the type of person somebody like CB would have been familiar with, so it’s not surprising that the credible information came from that type of a character. If a virtuous law abiding citizen came forward, as thousands have, IMO the likelihood of them having very relevant information would be much less than the likes of Helge. The type of individual IMO who commits this sort of crime will be far more likely to confide in, or boast to other nasty criminals, like Helge. JMO

Can't dispute any of that, Frank. Well said. None of us knows these characters personally (I assume). There's no particular reason I suppose to assume what MS said is fair comment. What he said is interesting though. It does fuel discussion.

 

[Consider Dudley]

Sure you're aware of it, plea bargaining happens everywhere.

That’s not what was being described here. I shall say no more as apparently it’s rude and bickering to continue the discussion.

 

[frank-cole]

Can't dispute any of that, Frank. Well said. None of us knows these characters personally (I assume). There's no particular reason I suppose to assume what MS said is fair comment. What he said is interesting though. It does fuel discussion.

Thanks. It certainly does fuel discussion. i think some of the media have done a pretty good job at shining some light on CB’s life in 07 & have drawn out certain characters. But I wouldn’t be surprised if there were several others flying under the radar. IMO there are probably still people who may have useful information that haven’t come forward, such as the person who called him that night.

 

[Lyall0814]

That’s not what was being described here. I shall say no more as apparently it’s rude and bickering to continue the discussion.

Don't be like that, you know we love your debating style really. (sometimes it might be just a bit too intense though. Jmo!)

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I have seen it said that CB spent a lot of time on the internet. The fact that he had 8,000 still images and videos of abuse some of which he appeared in would seem to substantiate his obsession.

He may have posted some of these images on the dark web and they may have been recovered from there.

He may have.

But if they do, there is nothing about the quality or technical aspects of the footage that allow them to pinpoint a date closer than a six-year range.

Additionally, of the three alleged rapes we know of, in six years of investigating and they haven’t been able to identify any of the three victims. This means none of them reported the crimes at the time or have done so since - despite the coverage and Hazel B coming forward. And, I’m sure they would have facial recognition software and the ability to search for matches online - still no identification.

Not impossible that they have footage but IMO, the charges suggest that it’s unlikely.

 

[Okapi]

I have seen it said that CB spent a lot of time on the internet. The fact that he had 8,000 still images and videos of abuse some of which he appeared in would seem to substantiate his obsession.

He may have posted some of these images on the dark web and they may have been recovered from there.

For an itinerant handyman, he sure had a lot of computers. IIRC, I think he stole one from the older American lady as he departed the crime scene.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I understand your point. IMO they are certainly all victims. Helge B is a proven credible witness. The BKA find him credible, the judges & lay judges in the German courtroom found him credible (DM case) & his testimony has also led to concrete evidence in the MM case. I trust the BKA’s ability to assess the credibility of a witness, as well as I do the German court system. That’s why I disagree with quick lines about Helge B being used as a way to discredit the German court system, all of the BKA’s 6 cases & all of the victims. German prosecutors only charge if the prospect of conviction outweigh the prospect of acquittal, therefore IMO there must be very good reason they were confident to charge. We’re only privy to the open-source information. The file (relating to the 5 charges) were extensive and HCW even noted it would take the defence a while to go through them. IMO that strongly suggests that the evidence is detailed & credible & that it wasn’t a massive amount of words & 100’s of pages relating to just 1 witness testimony.

IMO the cases are all in a very strong position. HCW said there’d be other sex crimes & he was right, they’ve completed investigations for 5.

IMO there will now be a prolonged period of slow balling but it will inevitably get to court & regardless of whatever tactics used beforehand, IMO both sides will have to face the reality that there’ll be no avoiding a court date. Sometimes I reflect on just how long this has taken and how I’d never expected it to. It can be frustrating but IMO they’ve dropped no cases for very good reason, if justice will take time then so be it. All the victims deserve their cases to be heard.

HB’s testimony in the DM case was used to support the fact that DNA evidence placed CB at the scene of the crime, a conviction is an almost certainty.

Because he was able to provide information in this case doesn’t mean everything he says is true. CB May have told him things about rapes, he may have told him things about MM - importantly, it doesn’t mean either are true. In my opinion, given their characters and convictions, it does make what they say less likely to be true. It’s also worth mentioning that FF has dismissed HB as a credible witness - it seems clear you do not put the same level of trust in his word.

Is it possible that HB has motivations other than being a Good Samaritan for sharing his story? Do we know that he hasn’t gained preferential treatment on past crimes? Why did he wait until 2017 to notify OG about CB when the investigation started in 2011.

It’s also important, IMO, that the charges haven’t stuck nor has there been any update on which prosecutors have jurisdiction. We don’t know where this will end up and any statement made about having to face trial is nothing more than conjecture.

If/when these cases go to trial there may or may not be more evidence. Until then, it’s a fact that all we know is that the charges are based on the words of HB and MS.

IMO, making any assertions about crimes and victims on this basis is flimsy.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

On the subject of CB and the unidentified “victims”, I also think it’s worth mentioning that CB was not exclusively a monster to women.

He held down girlfriends, some of which found him nice, even gentlemanly.

Of the women he dated, there was a huge age range from NM (teenager) to the women who stayed with him at the box factory (25 years his senior IIRC).

It’s not impossible to consider him recording consensual sexual activity with some of these women.

Just to reiterate my position here, I am not defending CB, nor discounting any of the awful crimes he has been convicted for. I am however not convinced by the German prosecutor. I think these alleged crimes are being used to develop a narrative about CB in relation to the MM crime in place of real evidence.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

On the subject of CB and the unidentified “victims”, I also think it’s worth mentioning that CB was not exclusively a monster to women.

He held down girlfriends, some of which found him nice, even gentlemanly.

Of the women he dated, there was a huge age range from NM (teenager) to the women who stayed with him at the box factory (25 years his senior IIRC).

It’s not impossible to consider him recording consensual sexual activity with some of these women.

Just to reiterate my position here, I am not defending CB, nor discounting any of the awful crimes he has been convicted for. I am however not convinced by the German prosecutor. I think these alleged crimes are being used to develop a narrative about CB in relation to the MM crime in place of real evidence.

Honestly, do you believe or not that CB commited these sexual crimes he is accused? Do you believe or not that CB was involved in MM's disappearance and/or murder? Do you believe they have evidence but not sufficient or not at all and all this is being "fabricated"? Can CB be really innocent in all these situations?!

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Honestly, do you believe or not that CB commited these sexual crimes he is accused? Do you believe or not that CB was involved in MM's disappearance and/or murder? Do you believe they have evidence but not sufficient or not at all and all this is being "fabricated"? Can CB be really innocent in all these situations?!

I think I’ve answered similar questions before. If the question is, do I think CB is capable of raping someone, then my answer is yes - it’s proven to be the case.

Same goes for the playground exposure and the beach attack. These crimes I think are typical of CB and his background.

If the question is do I think CB abducted and murdered MM. I think it’s possible but it’s equally possible he didn’t. In a situation like this, I look to the people making the claim that he did to support what they are saying both through their actions and their words.

It seems clear to me that they can’t prove he is responsible for a crime in relation to MM. If they can’t prove it, how can they be sure he did it? Why should I believe them just because they say so?

It’s a high-profile case which I’m sure the Germans would love to crack. Has this affected their judgement? IMO, it’s possible.

I find it hard to believe that CB was out having dinner with his girlfriend on Wednesday night, going over to NF’s place possibly on Thursday night (the night MM disappeared) and having a fling with LE at the same time and in the middle of this, he was abducting and murdering MM. People will no doubt provide examples where criminals have acted normally but I have doubts CB could have.

It seems astonishing to me that someone like CB - criminal, loud mouth, impulsive, widely networked, drug/alcohol dependent could get away with it for 16 years. Especially if he was uploading and downloading images and footage of it on the internet as some people believe.

There are lots of cases where LE have got it wrong… badly. Is it possible here… absolutely.

All MO.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

I think I’ve answered similar questions before. If the question is, do I think CB is capable of raping someone, then my answer is yes - it’s proven to be the case.

If the question is do I think CB abducted and murdered MM. I think it’s possible but it’s equally possible he didn’t. In a situation like this, I look to the people making the claim that he did to support what they are saying both through their actions and their words.

It seems clear to me that they can’t prove he is responsible for a crime in relation to MM. If they can’t prove it, how can they be sure he did it?

It’s a high-profile case which I’m sure the Germans would love to crack. Has this affected their judgement? IMO, it’s possible.

I find it hard to believe that CB was out having dinner with his girlfriend on Wednesday night, going over to NF’s place possibly on Thursday night (the night MM disappeared) and having a fling with LE at the same time and in the middle of this, he was abducting and murdering MM.

It seems astonishing to me that someone like CB - criminal, loud mouth, impulsive, widely networked, drug/alcohol dependent could get away with it for 16 years. Especially if he was uploading and downloading images and footage of it on the internet as some people believe.

There are lots of cases where LE have got it wrong… badly. Is it possible here… absolutely.

All MO,

If they can’t prove it, how can they be sure he did it?
1) I go on the opposite: Even if BKA doesn't actually get enough evidence to prove beyond doubt that CB is guilty, that doesn’t automatically mean that CB didn't do it. JMO. I believe they may have stronger evidence than many may think but still not enough to convict unequivocally. I even think they will only get there with CB's confession.
2) This is also valid for the various(!) "strong" CB alibis (although he does not need one, actually...)

IMO I think it's highly likely he got caught very few times in relation to the number of crimes he carried out. How many times was CB caught for burglary in Portugal?
Just lucky, clever?! In the DM rape he was massively unlucky. He got away for 14 years. A solitary hair...despite his best efforts to avoid leaving DNA. It showed careful planning on his part to avoid detection.
And those are just the crimes we know about.

Beyond the long list of his criminal record in Algarve and Germany, (apparently) there's "still" no evidence of murder. And so, it doesn't seem to fit the profile...
By the way, in Portugal, Algarve, the macabre recurrence by such a proliferous burglar/abductor wouldn't even be a surprise looking at PJ organization and team at that date. CB knew well the area (me too) as well as the shameful laziness and incompetence of PJ (me too). The perfect habitat for him.

Anyway, IMO he seemed meticulous when the risk was higher but incautious with the "trivial" (e.g. diesel theft) and lax and foul-mouthed when drunk.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

If they can’t prove it, how can they be sure he did it?
1) I go on the opposite: Even if BKA doesn't actually get enough evidence to prove beyond doubt that CB is guilty, that doesn’t automatically mean that CB didn't do it. JMO. I believe they may have stronger evidence than many may think but still not enough to convict unequivocally. I even think they will only get there with CB's confession.
2) This is also valid for the various(!) "strong" CB alibis (although he does not need one, actually...)

IMO I think it's highly likely he got caught very few times in relation to the number of crimes he carried out. How many times was CB caught for burglary in Portugal?
Just lucky, clever?! In the DM rape he was massively unlucky. He got away for 14 years. A solitary hair...despite his best efforts to avoid leaving DNA. It showed careful planning on his part to avoid detection.
And those are just the crimes we know about.

Beyond the long list of his criminal record in Algarve and Germany, (apparently) there's "still" no evidence of murder. And so, it doesn't seem to fit the profile...
By the way, in Portugal, Algarve, the macabre recurrence by such a proliferous burglar/abductor wouldn't even be a surprise looking at PJ organization and team at that date. CB knew well the area (me too) as well as the shameful laziness and incompetence of PJ (me too). The perfect habitat for him.

Anyway, IMO he seemed meticulous when the risk was higher but incautious with the "trivial" (e.g. diesel theft) and lax and foul-mouthed when drunk.

In relation to 1), I respect your opinion but CB doesn’t have to prove his innocence, that is presumed, the burden of proof is on the prosecution.

In relation to CB having committed more crimes. This may be the case but in six years of investigating and up to 100 officers, the BKA haven’t brought much new information to the fore. It could be said that HB through OG is responsible for bringing the DM, HB, two unidentified rapes forward and the Salema Beach and playground, comparatively lesser crimes, were already reported to the Portuguese police. I’m sure they have tried but this is not a significant result relative to the time and financial investment. They certainly haven’t identified more cases of abduction or child murder as is the claim with MM.

There is really only his somewhat irrelevant criminal record, the fact that he was in the Algarve at the time, a witness statement and the prosecutors word that he is responsible for a crime against MM.

IMO, there are genuine reasons to doubt he is responsible.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

In relation to 1), I respect your opinion but CB doesn’t have to prove his innocence, that is presumed, the burden of proof is on the prosecution.

In relation to CB having committed more crimes. This may be the case but in six years of investigating and up to 100 officers, the BKA haven’t brought much new information to the fore. It could be said that HB through OG is responsible for bringing the DM, HB, two unidentified rapes forward and the Salema Beach and playground, comparatively lesser crimes, were already reported to the Portuguese police. I’m sure they have tried but this is not a significant result relative to the time and financial investment. They certainly haven’t identified more cases of abduction or child murder as is the claim with MM.

There is really only his somewhat irrelevant criminal record, the fact that he was in the Algarve at the time, a witness statement and the prosecutors word that he is responsible for a crime against MM.

IMO, there are genuine reasons to doubt he is responsible.

The second-last sentence. Your minor ("only..."), my major.
The last one, ok, you confirm, for you, it's likely he is not responsible. I really no longer support nor imagine that scenario as possible after all this show.

CB doesn’t have to prove his innocence...He does not need an alibi...LOL
If I or you were being publicly accused of murdering a child and I knew I was innocent....would be taunting the police that they haven't been able to find any "forensic" evidence yet?! 2xLOL

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The second-last sentence. Your minor ("only..."), my major.
The last one, ok, you confirm, for you, it's likely he is not responsible. I really no longer support nor imagine that scenario as possible after all this show.

CB doesn’t have to prove his innocence...He does not need an alibi...LOL
If I or you were being publicly accused of murdering a child and I knew I was innocent....would be taunting the police that they haven't been able to find any "forensic" evidence yet?! 2xLOL

Certainly I’m not and I don’t think you are career criminals so we cannot be expected to act the same way as CB. We don’t know what game he is playing in this unusual situation.

One small thing that I did find quite telling were MWT’s comments after he interviewed HCW. He said a couple of times that HCW “hates” CB, that this was very clear. This seems to be an unusual way to describe the view of a prosecutor. We have no idea of the prior relationship between CB and HCW and perhaps other prosecutors. If it’s bad, who knows how CB would react.

 

[Deleted member 268165]

That’s why IMO corroboration is key. If a testimony is corroborated with evidence then it’s valid, if it isn’t it isn’t. There have been many thousands of sightings, tip-offs & leads. Out of all of those thousands of individual pieces of information, Helge B’s testimony was one reason there’s an active murder investigation in process. IMO if his testimony wasn’t assessed thoroughly, deemed credible & corroborated with evidence it would have been just another one of the thousands of others.

IMO Helge B is exactly the type of person somebody like CB would have been familiar with, so it’s not surprising that the credible information came from that type of a character. If a virtuous law abiding citizen came forward, as thousands have, IMO the likelihood of them having very relevant information would be much less than the likes of Helge. The type of individual IMO who commits this sort of crime will be far more likely to confide in, or boast to other nasty criminals, like Helge. JMO

IMO, in the case of MM, HB is not a witness.
Also, HB was not a witness in the case of DM.
He was a witness of seeing two videos, with no reference to MM or DM.

 

[RichardKimble]

Certainly I’m not and I don’t think you are career criminals so we cannot be expected to act the same way as CB. We don’t know what game he is playing in this unusual situation.

One small thing that I did find quite telling were MWT’s comments after he interviewed HCW. He said a couple of times that HCW “hates” CB, that this was very clear. This seems to be an unusual way to describe the view of a prosecutor. We have no idea of the prior relationship between CB and HCW and perhaps other prosecutors. If it’s bad, who knows how CB would react.

It's suspect bias , the Police in the Ricky Neave case admitted to this after his mother was found not guilty ,the mother was far from being a good mum, never made her a murderer though.
Back to CB, the common denominator in the rape conviction and possible pending ones are the recordings, this is not in the case of MM, Wolters said they do not have video or photographs of the two together, there are no forensic links, start stripping back what they don't have then what is left ? blowed if I know, then then we're not in the position of knowing without the evidence, but it can't be much imo.

 

[Consider Dudley]

On the subject of CB and the unidentified “victims”, I also think it’s worth mentioning that CB was not exclusively a monster to women.

He held down girlfriends, some of which found him nice, even gentlemanly.

Of the women he dated, there was a huge age range from NM (teenager) to the women who stayed with him at the box factory (25 years his senior IIRC).

It’s not impossible to consider him recording consensual sexual activity with some of these women.

Just to reiterate my position here, I am not defending CB, nor discounting any of the awful crimes he has been convicted for. I am however not convinced by the German prosecutor. I think these alleged crimes are being used to develop a narrative about CB in relation to the MM crime in place of real evidence.

If CB video recording apparently violent but consensual sex was not uncommon with those women who found him “nice” and “gentlemanly” then perhaps they have already come forward to FF to give their side of the story, in which case CB and those who seem keen to defend him have little to worry about.

 

[Consider Dudley]

In relation to 1), I respect your opinion but CB doesn’t have to prove his innocence, that is presumed, the burden of proof is on the prosecution.

In relation to CB having committed more crimes. This may be the case but in six years of investigating and up to 100 officers, the BKA haven’t brought much new information to the fore. It could be said that HB through OG is responsible for bringing the DM, HB, two unidentified rapes forward and the Salema Beach and playground, comparatively lesser crimes, were already reported to the Portuguese police. I’m sure they have tried but this is not a significant result relative to the time and financial investment. They certainly haven’t identified more cases of abduction or child murder as is the claim with MM.

There is really only his somewhat irrelevant criminal record, the fact that he was in the Algarve at the time, a witness statement and the prosecutors word that he is responsible for a crime against MM.

IMO, there are genuine reasons to doubt he is responsible.

What are the main reasons that make you doubt he is responsible?

 

[Consider Dudley]

IMO, in the case of MM, HB is not a witness.
Also, HB was not a witness in the case of DM.
He was a witness of seeing two videos, with no reference to MM or DM.

Quite. If he was lying in order to strengthen the case against CB by inventing rapes on video why not go the whole hog and claim MM was in one of these videos?

 

[Consider Dudley]

It's suspect bias , the Police in the Ricky Neave case admitted to this after his mother was found not guilty ,the mother was far from being a good mum, never made her a murderer though.
Back to CB, the common denominator in the rape conviction and possible pending ones are the recordings, this is not in the case of MM, Wolters said they do not have video or photographs of the two together, there are no forensic links, start stripping back what they don't have then what is left ? blowed if I know, then then we're not in the position of knowing without the evidence, but it can't be much imo.

Yes, we’re all discussing this from the position of not having full access to all the evidence which makes it a rather pointless task imo. We can presume and guess as much as we like but where does that get us?