Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #38

[Mex]

Right but he’s been charged.

Charging is the way the state says we believe we have proof beyond reasonable doubt you are guilty.

Do we know if there are any hold ups regarding where he will be tried?

 

[Lyall0814]

<modsnip - quoted post and response to it removed> the prosecutors have told us they have evidence to name CB as the prime suspect in MM's case.

We know they have evidence in the five cases awaiting trial.

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>

I think they're acting pretty much like investigators/prosecutors everywhere. Sometimes what prosecutors describe as compelling evidence turns out to be flimsy. It's their job to say the evidence is strong. Sometimes according to them it's even overwhelming. But really it's flimsy, and very possibly that's going to happen again (if it ever does get to a trial that is. Imo it won't)

 

[Davieson]

No I think they're acting pretty much like investigators/prosecutors everywhere. Sometimes what prosecutors describe as compelling evidence turns out to be flimsy. It's their job to say the evidence is strong. Sometimes according to them it's even overwhelming. But really it's flimsy, and very possibly that's going to happen again (if it ever does get to a trial that is. Imo it won't)

Slightly off topic but I always think of Blair and his compelling evidence over Iraq. Nothing of the sort, it was all made up.

 

[Mex]

No I think they're acting pretty much like investigators/prosecutors everywhere. Sometimes what prosecutors describe as compelling evidence turns out to be flimsy. It's their job to say the evidence is strong. Sometimes according to them it's even overwhelming. But really it's flimsy, and very possibly that's going to happen again (if it ever does get to a trial that is. Imo it won't)

I think you are being pessimistic regarding the MM case. Much as some have been pessimistic regarding every initiative taken on behalf of MM since 2007 when she disappeared. None more so than investigators who didn't try to find her and who ignored pertinent evidence which should have been worth looking at to be ruled in or out.

It is nothing short of miraculous that the present MM German investigation has been able to come up with a suspect who has been agreed as such by the British and Portuguese police after the years of all other possibilities being eliminated.

Operation Grange identified circumstances which caused a bit of friction with the PJ who were following the same lead they were under secrecy of justice, prior to their reopening of the MM case. Confirmation indeed, if any was needed of a gaping hole in the initial investigation.

There was a prolific sexual predator operating within a 37 mile radius from where MM disappeared. Nobody bothered to look for him.

Snip
The Met uncovered the link which had been missed by Portuguese police.
________________________________________________
Portuguese police failed to probe the vital links and ruled out the prolific pervert as a suspect in the hunt for Madeleine.

The latest breakthrough in the case only came when Scotland Yard detectives connected the suspect with three incidents which were reported to them following a fresh appeal for information last year.
________________________________________________
“In six of the 12 potentially linked offences the suspect either sat or lay on the bed, before committing the sexual assault.”

A total of nine out of 12 break-ins carried out by the man were known to Portuguese investigators. However, they considered the incidents too spread out to be linked to Madeleine’s disappearance – despite taking place around an hour’s drive from Praia da Luz.

They also ruled out the suspect because there were no apparent attempts of abducting the girls.
________________________________________________
Two of the breakins were in Praia da Luz,
________________________________________________
In most cases there were no signs of forced entry to the properties, nothing was taken, and the intruder appeared between 2am and 5am.

This increases suspicions that the reasons for the intruder’s break-ins were sexually motivated.
________________________________________________
The suspect may have been in the properties for some time before committing the offences or being interrupted either by a parent, or the child waking up. He remained calm, even when disturbed.

Critics of the Portuguese investigation claim their failures to follow up on the leads mean they missed a vital window of opportunity to find Madeleine.
________________________________________________
A senior Portuguese police source said officers from the Policia Judiciaria were said to be “furious” with the Met.

They said the three UK letters of request have mentioned nothing about the new suspect.

The senior officer said: “The Metropolitan police today haven’t done anything but reveal the line of investigation discovered by the Portuguese team working on the review of the case.”

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Negativity interfered with taking an interest in checking out the evidence which at the time was inconvenient for the Portuguese police who had already decided on the perpetrator. It is risible to suggest that the BKA are replicating that incompetence in their present investigation which is evidence led.

I wonder about the ambiguous statement "They also ruled out the suspect ...". Was this the guy referred to recently in the Portuguese press as having been checked out at the time?

 

[frank-cole]

It is highly likely that the jurisdiction issue and the five cases awaiting trial as a direct result is causing a delay in the MM case.

Why would anyone rush to judgement in the above circumstances particularly as it seems more investigation is being conducted or where the subsequent trial venue will be.

I do not understand why the prosecutors are being criticised for delays which are not their fault, probably no one is more concerned than they are to get these cases moving.
My opinion

Completely agree.
If the cases are moved It’ll be interesting to see whether the Magdeburg spokesperson receives the same level of scrutiny HCW does.

IMO the scrutiny doesn’t really have anything to do with HCW, it’s really about the nature of the investigation & the direction it’s going. HCW gets the flack because he’s the face of that investigation.

IMO the prosecutors will wait until the other cases conclude before they make their move in the MM case. That’s what makes the most sense IMO. It’s possible that CB will be given a preventative order & a life sentence. Perhaps the reality of life in that prison will be enough to get a full confession & location of remains, in return a better prison with a full supply of marmalade & jam. IMO that could be a part of their long game but it may well come after a conviction in the MM case & after CB runs out of steam with the whinging letters & bizarre drawings.

JMO

 

[frank-cole]

I know we’re not meant to rely on psychic insights, but Frank, you’re psychic ;-)

In all seriousness, if the evidence emerges to convict CB, there probably will be opposition to it from some quarters. Perhaps that very likelihood is another reason for a delay in the investigation, as the prosecution is mindful of the need to secure unequivocal evidence. Jmo.

Yep. It’ll rain in England this week….

It’s certainly been a long process but I don’t think the lack of action is a reflection on a weak case. When the traffic jam of cases clears then IMO a MM arrest will be on the horizon. From an investigative standpoint, they’ve cracked the biggest missing person case of all time & still have information that could bring more answers.

IMO a charge is inevitable, but they won’t act until the other cases are clear.

 

[enquirer6]

If Brueckner, or anyone like him, is charged with responsibility for the disappearance of Madeleine, what will the charge be?

 

[Mex]

<modsnip - quoted post removed for personalizing?

<modsnip - response to quoted post> the fact that CB is neither classed as an arguido in Portugal, prime suspect in a missing child case by British law enforcement and prime suspect in the murder of a child by German investigators without there being back up of supporting evidence.

We have first hand experience of the systematic approach the BKA and prosecutors take when prosecuting crime when they come across it. There is the example of the aggravated rape CB was found guilty of in 2019. There are five pending cases hanging over his head all of which had enough evidence to support charges being laid. These evidence supported six cases, one tried and five untried as yet, show that CB prolifically sexually targeted women and children.

The five pending cases prove the existence of evidence. Just because we don't know what the evidence is for the MM case which is still being worked under secrecy of justice, most certainly does not go hand in hand with the assumption that there is none. <modsnip>
My opinion

 

[Okapi]

Completely agree.
If the cases are moved It’ll be interesting to see whether the Magdeburg spokesperson receives the same level of scrutiny HCW does.

IMO the scrutiny doesn’t really have anything to do with HCW, it’s really about the nature of the investigation & the direction it’s going. HCW gets the flack because he’s the face of that investigation.

IMO the prosecutors will wait until the other cases conclude before they make their move in the MM case. That’s what makes the most sense IMO. It’s possible that CB will be given a preventative order & a life sentence. Perhaps the reality of life in that prison will be enough to get a full confession & location of remains, in return a better prison with a full supply of marmalade & jam. IMO that could be a part of their long game but it may well come after a conviction in the MM case & after CB runs out of steam with the whinging letters & bizarre drawings.

JMO

Just to change the record in this thread, let’s talk about those prisons

If jurisdiction for the pending 5 charges switches to Saxony-Anhalt, does anyone know would CB be moved to a prison in that state? Or would he serve out his current sentence where he is? Or is even that a bunfight?

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Just to change the record in this thread, let’s talk about those prisons

If jurisdiction for the pending 5 charges switches to Saxony-Anhalt, does anyone know would CB be moved to a prison in that state? Or would he serve out his current sentence where he is? Or is even that a bunfight?

I can only assume that prisons are federally run. If you can recall, CB was originally incarcerated in Kiel which is in Schleswig-Holstein but he was moved to “Germany’s Alcatraz” or Oldenburg which is in Lower Saxony.

I make this assumption because If the prisons had anything to do with prosecution jurisdiction, it makes no sense that CB was imprisoned in Kiel - it is in a different state to Braunschweig.

This is the rationale but it could of course be wrong.

 

[RichardKimble]

So HCW tells us that there is no body ,there are no forensics, what if one or both of these criteria have to be met before even a hint of a charge can be laid, and said criteria cannot be met, I'd venture recent searches of the reservoir could explain this.Look at it another way, no investigative measures or suspicions led to CBs front door, he was entered into the affray through the back door by a third party.imo.

 

[mrjitty]

For reference we looked at HCWs official role before, without any definitive conclusion.

He is the official media liaison for the prosecutors office of Braunschweig, but also a senior prosecutor in terms of his rank and qualifications. Whether this means he actively works as a prosecutor, or only does media or both, is unclear.

 

[Mex]

Yep. It’ll rain in England this week….

It’s certainly been a long process but I don’t think the lack of action is a reflection on a weak case. When the traffic jam of cases clears then IMO a MM arrest will be on the horizon. From an investigative standpoint, they’ve cracked the biggest missing person case of all time & still have information that could bring more answers.

IMO a charge is inevitable, but they won’t act until the other cases are clear.

The supposition just isn’t feasible that the case for MM against CB is a weak one as a result of delays outwith the control of anyone other than the defence, which might very well have bitten off more than it can chew with the procedural tactic used.

It has definitely
a) given more time to concentrate on lines of inquiry for MM and perhaps beyond
b) it hasn’t made the five outstanding indictments vanish. The evidence is still there to be used

Only the investigators know which angles they are working on and whether or not MM is the only case. Given that already one heinous rape crime has been solved as a result of the MM investigation and five others will eventually have their day in court despite all the wishful thinking thinking to the contrary.

The official CB defenders have a job to do in upholding due process as outlined in the Constitution. But the motivation escapes me for the unconditional support given to him by ordinary folk arguing his case despite knowing little of it.
Such is the composition of events which characterises the mystery of MM.
My opinion

 

[Mex]

So HCW tells us that there is no body ,there are no forensics, what if one or both of these criteria have to be met before even a hint of a charge can be laid, and said criteria cannot be met, I'd venture recent searches of the reservoir could explain this.Look at it another way, no investigative measures or suspicions led to CBs front door, he was entered into the affray through the back door by a third party.imo.

Your despair that the lack of human remains might impinge on justice being served can be offset by it not being unheard of for such cases to be resolved and the perpetrator apprehended and convicted.

 

[frank-cole]

The supposition just isn’t feasible that the case for MM against CB is a weak one as a result of delays outwith the control of anyone other than the defence, which might very well have bitten off more than it can chew with the procedural tactic used.

It has definitely
a) given more time to concentrate on lines of inquiry for MM and perhaps beyond
b) it hasn’t made the five outstanding indictments vanish. The evidence is still there to be used

Only the investigators know which angles they are working on and whether or not MM is the only case. Given that already one heinous rape crime has been solved as a result of the MM investigation and five others will eventually have their day in court despite all the wishful thinking thinking to the contrary.

The official CB defenders have a job to do in upholding due process as outlined in the Constitution. But the motivation escapes me for the unconditional support given to him by ordinary folk arguing his case despite knowing little of it.
Such is the composition of events which characterises the mystery of MM.
My opinion

Completely agree. The simplest hypothesis is usually the right one. Which is (IMO) that all of the 5 cases, regardless of jurisdiction, will go trial. I don’t think there’s a logical angle that could argue that there’s plausibility that somehow FF is going to free CB of the charges in the interim.

As for the MM case, the juries out on that one! ?(Pun intended). IMO it’ll go all the way, but there’s certainly an air of uncertainty & perhaps some assess that positive or negative outcomes in the 5 cases influence the MM case. Hence the polarising opinions on the strength of those cases & the view of the prosecution.

 

[enquirer6]

Just to change the record in this thread, let’s talk about those prisons

If jurisdiction for the pending 5 charges switches to Saxony-Anhalt, does anyone know would CB be moved to a prison in that state? Or would he serve out his current sentence where he is? Or is even that a bunfight?

I can't imagine prisons 'competing' for the 'privilege' of holding him .....

 

[mrjitty]

I beg to differ. I doubt the suspect was described as a demon and a monster in the arrest warrant.

Obviously I am not a fan of this kind of rhetoric in the press from police - mostly because it can impact the trial and jury. We've seen trials have to be moved in the US due to pre-trial publicity for example. This recently happened in the morphew case post charge where the DA talked about the trial on a podcast which was not good.

I hope to check out the filed documents in more detail, but the Judge himself appears to have described the offending as 'depraved' and the prosecutor also used strong words.

So interesting, but I am not sure directly analogous to HCWs comments

 

[Mex]

Obviously I am not a fan of this kind of rhetoric in the press from police - mostly because it can impact the trial and jury. We've seen trials have to be moved in the US due to pre-trial publicity for example. This recently happened in the morphew case post charge where the DA talked about the trial on a podcast which was not good.

I hope to check out the filed documents in more detail, but the Judge himself appears to have described the offending as 'depraved' and the prosecutor also used strong words.

So interesting, but I am not sure directly analogous to HCWs comments

Short of the knowledge that MM was missing investigators were left with only witness evidence on which to build a case. But for one reason or another they simply did not believe what the witnesses told them.

• They discarded the evidence of MM’s mother who told them the room was not as it had been left with the window closed and the outside shutter down. The shutter had been raised and the window opened proving someone had been in the room to do that.
• JT’s evidence that she had witnessed a male carrying a child dressed in pyjamas yards from the holiday apartment was also dismissed.

Two eye witnesses both of whom were discounted left the police with little to go on and MM was never found.

Fast forward from 2007 to the present day and witness a case which was fated never to be solved, in the process of being solved.
How come?
Someone grassed and was listened to.
The information given was checked with what was on file in 2007 but either never looked at or given a cursory glance before being ignored.

To solve a case investigators need evidence and they have to look at it whatever the source. They didn’t do that in 2007 and MM paid the price by becoming a mystery story.

The Germans didn’t ignore their witness.
They and Operation Grange took it back to 2007 and worked forward from there and collated their evidence, which resulted in CB becoming the prime suspect. All based on evidence. There couldn’t be a greater difference between then and now.

The lesson there is that if you don’t look and check it out you won’t find it.
My opinion

 

[sandy_80]

wasnt the male carrying the child supposengly one of the ppl who knew the mccanns carrying his child ?
this is so messed up .. you dont kno a single thing for truth

 

[RichardKimble]

It's been posted often enough.

Mr Redwood said: “Our focus in terms of understanding what happened on the night of May 3 has now given us a shift of emphasis. We are almost certain that the man seen by Jane Tanner is not Madeleine’s abductor.

“It takes us through to a position at 10pm when we see another man who is walking towards the ocean, close by to the apartment, with a young child in his arms.

“This child is described as being about three to four years of age with blonde hair, possibly wearing pyjamas, and the man is a white man with dark hair.”

As for the window and shutters crime scene photos paint a different picture.