Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #39

[Anxala]

You make a good argument.

I suppose I find it hard to take seriously his claims as to BKA motivations. Why would they seek a patsy? It makes no sense. I think they are genuine in their belief CB is guilty. Of course that belief might be incorrect.

If we take the emotive and dismissive 'patsy' out of the equation for a minute, it's easier to understand GA's position. He has never veered from his original theories and CB just doesn't fit with them. That's why he's resistant to CB as the abductor/murderer. So it's not so much that he's ridiculing the BKA's investigation, more that he just can't with good faith get on board it as it's contrary to everything he believes.

The BKA investigation on the other hand is not burdened with history and CB clearly, based on what they know/claim they know, fits for MM.

So yes, I understand both positions, and believe both to be reasonable, based on their separate perspectives.

 

[mrjitty]

I agree that it is unlikely the BKA would manufacture a fall-guy, there is no logical reason they would.

In the Australian Channel 9 Podcast, that doesn’t seem to be what he’s saying though. It’s more that the Met is trying to shelve OG and that the BKA investigation into CB gives them this opportunity.

OK - that makes more sense.

 

[Davieson]

Why haven’t they shelved it then? Instead they were I believe granted additional funds this year to prolong the investigation.

Which public body ever turns additional funding down ?

 

[mrjitty]

<modsnip: quoted post was removed>
To be clear, I am saying there a multiple possibilities.

Sometimes police know who did it, but cannot charge for procedural / evidential reasons. Morphew is a case like this. The case has collapsed for procedural reasons, despite the case against the accused being strong. Other times it is evidential. e.g some evidence might be inadmissible, or not prove part of the actus reus, or the witness might not be reliable enough at trial.

Then there are a small number of cases where the reason they cannot find the direct evidence of murder is because the perfect suspect is in fact not guilty. See Delphi.

I agree their failure to close the case does not prove CB innocent. Rather the longer this goes on, the more it suggests an alternate possibility - the theory of the case is incorrect

How likely that is, we can't say, because we don't know what the secret evidence is.

 

[mrjitty]

If we take the emotive and dismissive 'patsy' out of the equation for a minute, it's easier to understand GA's position. He has never veered from his original theories and CB just doesn't fit with them. That's why he's resistant to CB as the abductor/murderer. So it's not so much that he's ridiculing the BKA's investigation, more that he just can't with good faith get on board it as it's contrary to everything he believes.

The BKA investigation on the other hand is not burdened with history and CB clearly, based on what they know/claim they know, fits for MM.

So yes, I understand both positions, and believe both to be reasonable, based on their separate perspectives.

Thanks for the detailed explanation

I am increasingly convinced the evidence that have is basically what we just discussed.

This is why they can't charge it, but why they think they know what happened.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Why haven’t they shelved it then? Instead they were I believe granted additional funds this year to prolong the investigation.

It was meant to be shelved and was widely reported that it would be after GA made the comments to the podcast:

Madeleine McCann probe 'to end' amid fears suspect won't be charged

Scotland Yard will reportedly bring Operation Grange to an end later this year, 15 years after Madeleine McCann went missing while on holiday in Portugal with her parents

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Anxala]

Thanks for the detailed explanation

I am increasingly convinced the evidence that have is basically what we just discussed.

This is why they can't charge it, but why they think they know what happened.

It's possible. Kind of implausible and more than a bit concerning if that's all they have though, don't you think? On their own, I feel any defence worth its salt would give them short measure as to their reliability...

Anyway, I was thinking re Das Buch and the 2 anonymous cases on the current charge sheet, the young girl at the farmhouse and the elderly woman at the holiday apartment, names and dates of assaults unknown. I'm curious as to how they ended up on the charge sheet with such vague detail and on entirely the basis of questionable hearsay. So, maybe CB wrote about both and what he wrote ties in with the alleged details provided by the witnesses who claim to have seen the videos in which the two victims were attacked. And that's what they've used - the combination of the witness account and CB's writings - to get those two cases on the charge sheet?

 

[mrjitty]

It's possible. Kind of implausible and more than a bit concerning if that's all they have though, don't you think? On their own, I feel any defence worth its salt would give them short measure as to their reliability...

Anyway, I was thinking re Das Buch and the 2 anonymous cases on the current charge sheet, the young girl at the farmhouse and the elderly woman at the holiday apartment, names and dates of assaults unknown. I'm curious as to how they ended up on the charge sheet with such vague detail and on entirely the basis of questionable hearsay. So, maybe CB wrote about both and what he wrote ties in with the alleged details provided by the witnesses who claim to have seen the videos in which the two victims were attacked. And that's what they've used - the combination of the witness account and CB's writings - to get those two cases on the charge sheet?

IMO you can see how conviction in the hypothesis would build from the tip from Helge B

• Suspect apparently lived in the area at the time (if not at PdL)
• Profile matchs well enough
• Development and conviction in historic rape case (validates Helge B as witness)
• Proof of theory of someone who breaks and enters and commits violent crime
• Phone call (places on the scene at approx the right time
• Jag re-reg - too coincidental?
• (Poss) written confession in Das Buch
• (poss) stolen goods from OC
• (poss) other confessions?

So you might feel at this stage, you are close to getting the big break in the case?

 

[onemoremiletogo]

IMO you can see how conviction in the hypothesis would build from the tip from Helge B

• Suspect apparently lived in the area at the time (if not at PdL)
• Profile matchs well enough
• Development and conviction in historic rape case (validates Helge B as witness)
• Proof of theory of someone who breaks and enters and commits violent crime
• Phone call (places on the scene at approx the right time
• Jag re-reg - too coincidental?
• (Poss) written confession in Das Buch
• (poss) stolen goods from OC
• (poss) other confessions?

So you might feel at this stage, you are close to getting the big break in the case?

+ chats
Too much coincidences to go other directions, other suspects (who?!) and believe this is not the more logic "bet".

 

[Mex]

What would be the logic for prosecutors to charge CB for crimes against MM at this moment in time?

The process would go nowhere.

It would be bogged down in the jurisdiction argument which has prevented the five crimes CB was charged with at the end of 2022 being brought to trial.

Even if they already have enough evidence to support an indictment in the MM case, where is the logic in the authorities handing over all they have on CB and his crimes when they don't have to.

Particularly since it won't be a progression towards prosecution. CB won't be charged until jurisdiction is resolved. Why would anyone think he should be and why would anyone think there is reasoning other than jurisdiction for the delay.
My opinion

 

[RichardKimble]

Thanks for the detailed explanation

I am increasingly convinced the evidence that have is basically what we just discussed.

This is why they can't charge it, but why they think they know what happened.

Know what happened in relation to her death? I don't think anyone can work out 5a.

 

[Mex]

<modsnip: quoted post was removed>
Quite simply there is no suspicion and there is no evidence against anyone other than CB of harming MM. There are no indications that he did not.

There is evidence against CB.

Whichever way it is looked at, this is the end of the road for finding out what happened to MM and who bears responsibility for doing it.
Until such time until CB faces judgement in a court probably only he knows exactly how strong the evidence against him is and I certainly don't think anyone can vouch for his innocence except his legal team who are paid to do so.
My opinion

 

[enquirer6]

Know what happened in relation to her death? I don't think anyone can work out 5a.

You're jumping the gun a bit, there, Richard.

Even though Encarnacidio intstructed Mark Harrison to investigate that Madeleine had been murdered and buried, there is no clear evidence, certainly from the shelved enquiry and neither (at least in the public domain!) from the present enquiry, about what actually happened to Madeleine.

We do know that Mark Harrison ruled out burial, at least on the beach (although you would never guess that from reading Amaral's book).

 

[RichardKimble]

You're jumping the gun a bit, there, Richard.

Even though Encarnacidio intstructed Mark Harrison to investigate that Madeleine had been murdered and buried, there is no clear evidence, certainly from the shelved enquiry and neither (at least in the public domain!) from the present enquiry, about what actually happened to Madeleine.

We do know that Mark Harrison ruled out burial, at least on the beach (although you would never guess that from reading Amaral's book).

You should note I posed a question.

 

[Dre]

I’m absolutely open to CB being the culprit, but I’m waiting for some real connective evidence to sway me, Moo

 

[Mex]

I’m absolutely open to CB being the culprit, but I’m waiting for some real connective evidence to sway me, Moo

Everyone will be keen to see closure of MM's case particularly if the right perpetrator is found.

CB is the prime suspect of three investigative police forces and he is the only person against whom any evidence has been found to make him a suspect in MM's disappearance.

The evidence against him must be compelling.
My opinion

 

[enquirer6]

Everyone will be keen to see closure of MM's case particularly if the right perpetrator is found.

CB is the prime suspect of three investigative police forces and he is the only person against whom any evidence has been found to make him a suspect in MM's disappearance.

The evidence against him must be compelling.
My opinion

One point to add.

Herr Wolters has said, several times, if you could see the evidence we have .... strongly indicating that he has not made public all he knows.

ETA: I think that the fact the McCanns, now, for the first time, seem to acknowledge they won't see Madeleine again further indicates that he has shared information with them he has not made, more widely, public.

 

[Anxala]

IMO you can see how conviction in the hypothesis would build from the tip from Helge B

• Suspect apparently lived in the area at the time (if not at PdL)
• Profile matchs well enough
• Development and conviction in historic rape case (validates Helge B as witness)
• Proof of theory of someone who breaks and enters and commits violent crime
• Phone call (places on the scene at approx the right time
• Jag re-reg - too coincidental?
• (Poss) written confession in Das Buch
• (poss) stolen goods from OC
• (poss) other confessions?

So you might feel at this stage, you are close to getting the big break in the case?

I can see it but it all still needs something absolutely compelling to drive it which, we have to assume, must be the bit we don't know, the 'if you knew what I know, you too would come to no other conclusion' bit.

I'm just not sure a written confession in Das Buch could be that compelling driver?

 

[Mex]

I can see it but it all still needs something absolutely compelling to drive it which, we have to assume, must be the bit we don't know, the 'if you knew what I know, you too would come to no other conclusion' bit.

I'm just not sure a written confession in Das Buch could be the compelling driver?

I suspect it was something from within CB's vast and horrible collection of photographic images and videos which has made investigators so sure.
For some reason he took the mask off to reveal his face after raping DM, he may have revealed himself deliberately or inadvertently during other outrages.

 

[Consider Dudley]

Which public body ever turns additional funding down ?

I’m sorry but the contention was that the Met actively WANT to shut down OG. If that’s the case why are they asking for more funding? That’s illogical and nonsensical imo.