Maine/Canada - Hurricane Lee, Sept 2023

[PayrollNerd]

https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2023&storm=13

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Public Advisory

www.nhc.noaa.gov

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

 

[Irishknit]

https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2023&storm=13

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Public Advisory

www.nhc.noaa.gov

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...



View attachment 444978

Atlantic coast Florida surfers are waxing their boards in anticipation. oh boy!

 

[JerseyGirl]

Atlantic coast Florida surfers are waxing their boards in anticipation. oh boy!

Lee coming in hot! I am starting to quiver here in Jersey.

So, will it affect the Caribbean ... Florida ... eastern U.S. coast? It is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges. The U.S. Virgin Islands just east of Puerto Rico are on the edge of the NHC's forecast "cone" in 5 days, its widest.

Long range models are hinting at a turn more to the northwest then possibly north, bringing Bermuda into the possible path. But errors are greater past the five-day mark. It poses no threat to land masses past the islands for over a week, so there is plenty of time to watch Lee. And this is a storm to be watched.

The tropics stay hot — keep an eye on soon-to-be Lee in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center began advisories on Tropical Depression 10 on Tuesday at 11 a.m. — and expects to be following major Hurricane Lee by the end of the week.

www.aroundosceola.com

That is NOT my BBM.

Powerful Hurricane Lee expected to form out of new Depression

Tropical Depression 13 is expected to become powerful Hurricane Lee.

www.news4jax.com

 

[HmmMysterious]

From the NHC...


"...TROPICAL STORM LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND..."

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 13.2°N 41.8°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

---

 

[JerseyGirl]

Tropical Storm Lee Forms, Expected To Rapidly Become Major Hurricane

The National Hurricane Center issued an “extremely bullish” forecast for the new system, which is expected to avoid the U.S., based on steering currents.

www.forbes.com

While it’s expected Lee will stay east of the U.S., forecasters with AccuWeather say any potential impacts rely largely on the overall steering pattern of next week’s winds and are advising people along the East Coast to monitor the path of the storm.

Even if the storm doesn’t make landfall stateside, AccuWeather experts are warning of “some stronger surf and dangerous rip currents” along the Eastern Seaboard.

____

The past few days, NJ had a few fatal deaths from people swimming in the surf and rip currents with Idalia and Franklin far out to sea.

 

[JerseyGirl]

I looked at Windy.com forecast for 9/14 and it shows the storm forecast in this area:

 

[anneg]

Tropical Storm Lee Forms, Expected To Rapidly Become Major Hurricane

The National Hurricane Center issued an “extremely bullish” forecast for the new system, which is expected to avoid the U.S., based on steering currents.

www.forbes.com

While it’s expected Lee will stay east of the U.S., forecasters with AccuWeather say any potential impacts rely largely on the overall steering pattern of next week’s winds and are advising people along the East Coast to monitor the path of the storm.

Even if the storm doesn’t make landfall stateside, AccuWeather experts are warning of “some stronger surf and dangerous rip currents” along the Eastern Seaboard.

____

The past few days, NJ had a few fatal deaths from people swimming in the surf and rip currents with Idalia and Franklin far out to sea.

I like to check the Spaghetti Models website (Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment!), which has a lot of maps and shows the likely turn toward the north. The graphic comes from South Florida Water Management District, apparently. Guess we shall see...

 

[PayrollNerd]

It would be great if it drifted north and stayed far from the east coast. I'm not holding my breath tho. Anyone else getting Hurricane Dorian vibes???

Tropical Storm Lee / Hurricane Lee prediction.

Hurricane Dorian 2019 historical path

Hurricane Dorian, September 6, 2019

www.weather.gov

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/05/weather/atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-climate/index.html

 

[Friday Fan]

It would be great if it drifted north and stayed far from the east coast. I'm not holding my breath tho. Anyone else getting Hurricane Dorian vibes???

Tropical Storm Lee / Hurricane Lee prediction.
View attachment 445091


Hurricane Dorian 2019 historical path

View attachment 445092

Hurricane Dorian, September 6, 2019

www.weather.gov

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/05/weather/atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-climate/index.html

It all depends on the jet stream! Currently this storm is trending a bit more NE than Dorian. Of course, I don't expect much West-East wind south of Georgia. Further north, westerly winds can keep things off-shore.

 

[HmmMysterious]

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[HmmMysterious]

This doesn't sound good

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[Friday Fan]

This doesn't sound good

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No it does not!

 

[PayrollNerd]

The pressure is dropping.

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Tropical Storm LEE
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2023:

Location: 13.5°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
50 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

 

[Friday Fan]

The pressure is dropping.

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Tropical Storm LEE
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2023:

Location: 13.5°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
50 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:


View attachment 445114

I think the track is a bit unpredictable. I'm looking at the "nowcast" steering layers and if steering doesn't change, it will go north for a day, then head straight west to the Antilles.

By comparison, Idalia's steering pretty much stayed constant and the future cast mirrored the "nowcast". Everyone knew where she was going.

Layer Mean Wind - West Atlantic - Steering Layer 500-850mb - Latest Available

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

But I'm no meteorologist. The models must indicate that steering will change, so it's complicated. So, NHC is thinking something will change in the Atlantic in the coming days and steer it more north.

The track worries me with this one.

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Although the NHC
forecast and the model guidance continue to show Lee passing to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend, users are
reminded that the details of the track forecast are still uncertain
at those time ranges. For reference, the average NHC forecast track
errors are around 125 and 175 n mi on days 4 and 5, respectively.
The NHC track forecast lies on the southern side of the model
guidance envelope, roughly halfway between the usually most skillful
consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Lots of uncertainty beyond the next 3 days.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hurricane LEE
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 06, 2023:

Location: 14.6°N 46.0°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 15 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[JerseyGirl]

Lee is a hurricane — will it affect Florida? Well, kinda, at least

The National Hurricane Center upgraded the central Atlantic storm to Hurricane Lee (75 mph) at 5 p.m. Wednesday, just 30 hours after it became Tropical Depression 13.

www.aroundosceola.com

Ensemble hurricane models like the GFS ("American model") and ECWRF ("European model") show the storm, currently headed west-northwest across the Atlantic, making a turn to the north in the 6-8 day time frame, and staying offshore of Florida.

Those projections have the storm passing between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda (serving as "goalposts") and possibly becoming a problem for Massachusetts to the Canadian maritimes.

 

[HmmMysterious]

The latest forecast track now shows a slight bump to the west on 8 PM Monday

 

[Irishknit]

Hurricane LEE
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 06, 2023:

Location: 14.6°N 46.0°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 15 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

View attachment 445247

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

How could I have forgotten about tropicaltidbits??? Facepalm. Thanks for reminding me.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hurricane Lee could be close to Category 5 strength by weekend. What can Florida expect?

AccuWeather forecasters are predicting Lee will become a Category 5 storm as it nears the Caribbean islands and may eventually track toward the U.S.

www.naplesnews.com

Based on the projected track, direct impacts from Lee are not expected across Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

"Right now, the area in the United States that really needs to pay attention includes locations from the Outer Banks of North Carolina up to the Northeast," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said

As the storm nears the East Coast next week, expect rough surf and seas, as well as a significant risk for dangerous rip currents.