Meredith Kercher murdered-Amanda Knox appeals conviction #15

[Malkmus]

I must have missed the post ... thanks for bringing me up to speed.

But ... Knox didn't confess to anything.

Do you think she might have been stoned when she told police that Patrick murdered Meredith - lost between dream and reality?

Originally you said that innocent people don't falsely accuse others of murder in two hours. When I presented you with anecdotal evidence of such, you moved the goalpost and said innocent people don't falsely accuse others of murder in two hours without confessing to murder themselves. Now that I've shown you they do, it's innocent people don't falsely accuse others of murder in two hours without confessing to a crime as well. Is that correct?

As far as me thinking Amanda was stoned when she gave her statement to police, you asked me that already back in February as well and my answer is the same as it was then: No.

 

[OldSteve]

DNA was found on the clasp of Meredith's bra, her underwear.


We are still trying to figure out how the boyfriend of Knox got his DNA on the underwear of his girlfriend's roommate; the victim ... but apparently everyone else would rather lose themselves in clasps, underwear and fasteners ... even though the bottom line is that his DNA is on the victim's underwear.

How many here are going to sit back and proclaim that the ony way a man's DNA could end up on a woman's underwear is because he smoked a cigarette with his accomplice hours earlier outside the bedroom ... and then his DNA flew onto the underwear six weeks later?

BBM

When you say "on her underwear" do you mean on the bra clasp - or is there another place it's been found?

 

[OldSteve]

Originally you said that innocent people don't falsely accuse others of murder in two hours. When I presented you with anecdotal evidence of such, you moved the goalpost and said innocent people don't falsely accuse others of murder in two hours without confessing to murder themselves. Now that I've shown you they do, it's innocent people don't falsely accuse others of murder in two hours without confessing to a crime as well. Is that correct?

As far as me thinking Amanda was stoned when she gave her statement to police, you asked me that already back in February as well and my answer is the same as it was then: No.

BBM
I too do not believe she was stoned, but she must have been very tired in the wee hours of the morning -

After reading what Steve Moore had said about the "interview" I cannot blame her for saying what she had said...

http://abcnews.go.com/International...tired-fbi-agent-steve-moore/story?id=11541334

 

[emyr]

Someone talking about the bra clasp results in more detail:

http://viewfromwilmington.blogspot.com/2011/03/analysis-of-bra-clasp-dna.html

Apparently Raffaelle shared 11 out of 30 alleles with Kercher. So do you use Kercher's peaks as matches to Raffaelle or do you reduce the match to the reamining 19 alelles?

I don't know Sollecito's profile, so I can't say if the alleles found were his alone, or if they were shared by Kercher.

What is known is that there are alleles that belong to neither Kercher nor Sollecito on the clasp. Also, there is a problem that with each allelle found, it generates a "stutter" which is an echo of the allelle found.

The expert report states that of the remaining 19 allelles that are Sollecito's, some of his alleles are in the same place you would expect to find stutters from Meredith's alleles. So how many alleles does that leave that can be black and white belonging to Sollecito? The maundy site implies that if you are being generous to Sollecito you would still have 11 matches. I don't know if that's true.

These new site says with the remaining matches to Sollecito, there are peaks of equal value that are clearly not his. There APPEARS to be two additional sets of DNA on the clasp. If Raffaelle shares 11 out of 30 alleles with Kercher, could he share 11 alleles out of 30 with each of these other two people?

This site says there is no good protocol in place for mixed DNA results because they are so complex. Because they are so complex, you would want to avoid suspect-centric analysis because it is much easier to go wrong in this scenario.

Lastly, it states that the peaks that match Sollecito vary quite a bit in height. This variance usually implies that the DNA was from a low copy sample. i.e. there was copious amounts of Meredith's DNA and just enough of these other three people's DNA to show up, but the results are more ragged than you would see with a straightforward sample.

As per usual with this case, it gets more complex the more you learn.

EDITED TO ADD: You know this is another good example of how dangerous it is to play expert on the internet. The Massai report says a match of 13 to 15 alleles is a near certainty, and 16 is jackpot. The maundy site says the same thing. This new site I found is saying Meredith and Sollecito share 11 alleles. So if you had an 11 allelle match then it could be either one of these guys. That seems pretty random. Does anyone know where Sollecito's profile is so we can see if these statements are true?

 

[Nova]

Is Knox eating too much pizza? Hello?

The murder scene in fact did not cause any concern for Knox. She claims to have had a shower at the scene of the murder, and then she toodled on over to Sollecitio's apartment where she mopped a floor and then settled in for brunch. It was during that brunch that she apparently mentioned the state of the cottage - and where he and she started calling roommates like Filomina.

Is there a creative writing thread somewhere? I don't think this is it.

You don't know that AK "toodled" or "settled in" or when she mentioned the state of the cottage.

She took the mop to RS' apartment. She ate something. She told him of her concerns about the unlocked front door of her apparently empty cottage.

Personally, I think all of this is easily explained by AK's lack of fluency in Italian. I get by talking to the pool attendant in Spanish because I do it in person and we augment my limited vocabulary with hand gestures. There's no way I could have the same conversations in Spanish over the phone with the police.

 

[Nova]

Could you please elaborate on, and itemize, those errors ... I think you are posturing and full of it.

Honestly, otto, you are very smart and I think you know exactly what I mean.

I itemized a number of major errors for you last night and I'm already embarrassed for getting caught up in the game. I decline to participate further.

 

[miley]

I don't know what to think. Unfortunately, independent experts were never asked to review the DNA evidence against RG.

But the sexual assault always seemed so tentative for someone in a murderous frenzy. Of course, it's possible RG assaulted the victim sexually, but with Stefanoni merely looking to confirm a theory already "imagined" by the prosecution, who knows?

and since they told Amanda she'd get 30 years if she didn't confess, told Patrick he'd get half of 30 if he would confess then I have no doubt they told Rudy (?)

 

[miley]

If Stefanoni was tried in court, I would find her guilty of suspect-centric testing. I would find her guilty of withholding evidence. I would find her not guilty of being a planter, because even with the previous two counts of guilt, the presumption is still of innocence unless solid proof can be given.

(snip)
I agree, Stefanoni brought all this on herself but I don't believe she planted anything.

 

[miley]

BBM

When you say "on her underwear" do you mean on the bra clasp - or is there another place it's been found?

Thank you Steve. if there wasn't a difference we'd all believe her black lace panties were stored in a jar of liquid!

 

[wasnt_me]

yes there was
besides the Y haplotype found in her... his dna was found on the sleeve of her jacket, on her purse and the straps of her bra

his bloody hand on a pillowcase, his bloody shoe prints
(and I believe a bare footprint in the bathroom, too) plus fingerprints
eta: also dna on the t.paper in the bathroom

I hate to say it this way, but "if it really is" his DNA all over the rest of the bra, that begs the question EVEN more the need for RS's assistance to touch only the metal hook.

We also have some "guilty" behavior from RG, such as his story of her bleeding to death, but he doesn't get her help, his fleeing the country and discarding his shoes, clothes, and mostlikely the murder weapon. And we have his lies about his "relationship" with MK, which neither his friends nor MK's substantiate.

RG places himself down at the cottage 20 minutes before newspapers say MK got home. Why is that? And if that's true, how does he meet AK and RS there at that time when they don't have any phone calls between them? How Do AK and RS meet RG when RS is busy on the phone with his father at that same time and AK at the door talking to RS's friend at around that same time?

Then there's the fact that RG approximates the death taking place around 920pm to 930pm. He's probably more correct than the experts, but the TOD approximations line up with what he said, so he's gotta be right about it. And if what RG says lines up with the evidence, we know RS accessed his cartoon at 926pm, so....

Even if some dispute that, the MOT report still says he did activity at 910pm, which would give him and AK 5 minutes to rush up to the cottage to orchestrate MK's murder for no aparent reason.

We also know RG is correct because we know from the broken down car and tow truck guy that the cottage was dark with zero activity between 1015pm and 1130pm.

The only stretch I can possibly make is that RS and AK could have come home to get the mop and walked in on RG fleeing the scene. The couple was traumatized for the night and decided to call the police in the morning, which would explain RG's crazy story. I really doubt that happened, but I just can see no scenero where a woman, whose dating a man whose family has money, would see the need to kill over 300 euros. IF Ak stole it and MK threatened to tell the other roommates, still don't see that as a reason to murder. I just don't see AK logically telling RS and RG to "sic" MK before she called the roommates or the police over that. I even LESS see RS and RG just blindly complying, etiher.

They say they don't need to prove motive, but over something as bizarre as their theory, I think they DO need to prove motive. I hate to be crass, but if RS's family does have money and AK was sleeping with him, why wouldn't she just try to pump him for money rather than steal from MK and murder MK over it? Makes no sense. Certainly makes no sense for RS to be murdering someone to "split" 300 euros take. That's absurd.

As for the sex game gone wrong....can't even get into how absurd that is. That theory requires physical contact, and as we can see from the evidence, only RG had physical contact with the victim, so does a knife attack, right? o I'm very unclear at how such a "hands on" kind of crime wouldn't require physical evidence from RS and AK, certainly rising higher than the level of "maybe" RS floated in and tapped the bra clasp before dipping the front of his right foot in blood, floating out and mysteriously depositing his footprint on the bathmat, doing an expert clean up, but leaving his footprint on the bathmat for the world to see.

I really wish I could make up a feasibly guilty scenerio, so I could understand that insistence upon guilt.

 

[wasnt_me]

Agreed. I was speaking of the 2 because I do wonder why the verdict is not final for Otto in the CA case, but seems to be in the Knox case.

Cherrypicking the juries and decisions that suit, I suppose. Same with OJ's trial, according to Otto, they got that wrong, too.

But somehow, the innocence project is unreputable because it has assisted AK with her incorrect verdict. Go figure....

 

[wasnt_me]

Going through all of this forensic evidence of Stefanoni, I am currently surprised that I have moved from thinking of her as a forensic scientist doing her job to someone who has an active agenda for the prosecution who engaged in withholding critical evidence from the defense. I am surprised that this is indisputable.

Don't forget she also withheld the fsa files even after the judge ordered her to turn them over, AND she giftwrapped a mop. A mop, I say.

:floorlaugh:

 

[wasnt_me]

Someone talking about the bra clasp results in more detail:

http://viewfromwilmington.blogspot.com/2011/03/analysis-of-bra-clasp-dna.html

Yes, this is the site I was talking about last night. I think one of his newer posts has a chart in it comparing this, but it was with numbers, not a graph. I didn't understand it, but if you're dealing with mixed DNA and it's a complicated process and you have someone who is under a crunch to get some evidence against these kids after the shoe print thing fell apart, then I could see Stephanoni cheating by taking a look at RS's actual DNA to "sort" the peaks, etc. If she has 4 mixed profiles to use to compile just one, then she's got some good puzzle pieces to work with. But she had to have used his profile. I don't see how she sorted his out of a soup of 4 mixed profiles.

 

[wasnt_me]

Honestly, otto, you are very smart and I think you know exactly what I mean.

I itemized a number of major errors for you last night and I'm already embarrassed for getting caught up in the game. I decline to participate further.

And I applaud you, Nova.

 

[emyr]

Don't forget she also withheld the fsa files even after the judge ordered her to turn them over, AND she giftwrapped a mop. A mop, I say.

:floorlaugh:

She did? Literally? Why did she do that? Was she casting aspersions on the mop story?

 

[emyr]

Alright, some new info:

Amanda and Meredith shared 9 allelles:
D21s11 shares 30
CSF1PO shares 12
D3S1358 shares 18
Th01 shares 6 and 8
D13S317 shares 13
D16539 shares 10
D2s1338 shares 20
TPOX shares 8


They also share a peak at "X", but I'm unsure if that's just a sex gene?

In any case, it appears if you only match 9 allelles, you really could be anybody.

Amanda shares an additional 3 allelles with Sollecito that she does not share with Meredith.

Meredith's provided DNA is 30 points. There is a chart in the new report that shows the alleles in question in a mixed Meredith and Sollecito profile. The mixed profile yields 19 unique alleles for Sollecito, which implies that he and Meredith have 11 alleles that are the same.

Sollecito's unique alleles from Meredith are:
D8S1179 15
D21S11 32.2
CSF1PO 10
D3S1358 16 17
TH01 9 9.3
D13S317 12
D161539 11
D2S1338 16, 24
D19S433 13, 15.2
VWA 12, 15
TPOX 9
D18S51 16, 17

This implies if you match 11 alleles you could be anybody. Amanda matches 3 alleles of this remainder, leaving 16 alleles unique to Sollecito.

Don't know what this means, but it is interesting.

 

[SMK]

I know no one likes Mr. Fisher being quoted, but he does run a major website re Knox, and I do read him. I hope his proclamations and exited utterances contained within a couple of excerpts from this lengthy July article are close to the truth of the matter.

I hope that the statements which the Roman experts released to the court will be given due consideration by Judge Hellman and by the jury:

Court appointed independent forensic experts, Stefano Conti and Carla Vecchiotti, from Rome's Sapienza University, released a scathing report detailing gross negligence on the part of lead forensic scientist, Patricia Stefanoni, regarding the key DNA evidence used to secure convictions in the first trial. The alleged murder weapon and a DNA laced bra clasp have been fully discredited leaving absolutely no credible evidence to confirm the convictions of Knox and Sollecito. The report will be presented to the court July 25, where it will be game over for the prosecution.

The independent experts cite an egregious violation committed by Stefanoni that clearly shows she had an agenda.

The worst of all revelations is Stefanoni's failure to objectively test DNA samples. The method she used centers in on a specific suspect, a practice that is forbidden by all international standards due to the fact that it leads to biased analysis.

Samples are to be analyzed individually and then the final results are compared to see if any produce a positive match. If one begins knowing what they are looking for already, they are likely to interpret the electropherogram to match the result they are trying to achieve. Conti and Vecchiotti explain as follows:

"Statements about a profile obtained from a sample under examination, regarding the decision as to which is a true allele and which a 'drop-in', must necessarily be pronounced without knowledge of the suspect's profile; only in such a way, in fact, can a qualitatively unimpeachable and balanced approach to the interpretation of the profile emerging from the sample in question be guaranteed. An interpretation of the profile obtained from a sample, carried out with the suspect's reference profile available, indicates an imbalanced [approach], and is in total contrast with the absolutely objective nature of forensic science"
Stefanoni not only violated protocol, but also lied about it in court when she stated that she had adhered to proper procedure and analyzed all traces in an absolutely objective manner. Her boss, Dr. Renato Biondo, head of the DNA Unit at Polizia Scientifica, Rome, and consultant for the prosecution, needed positive results from Stefanoni and she was more than willing to fulfill the request.

This is not the first time Stefanoni has been dishonest with the court. Stefanoni claimed that stains detected at the crime scene using luminol (an investigative tool used to detect blood not visible to the human eye) were never tested for blood; however, in July 2009, when pressured by the defense, Stefanoni released information originally withheld confirming the stains were tested with tetramethylbenzidine, which is extremely sensitive for blood. All of the stains detected with luminol tested negative for blood. Stefanoni held this information from the court testifying instead that the stains were indeed blood. This is yet another example where Stefanoni created evidence to benefit the prosecution.

http://injusticeinperugia.blogspot.com/2011/07/amanda-knox-experts-report-proves.html

 

[emyr]

From my unscientific look at the bra clasp DNA, there appear to be 67 notated peaks, as well as 8 other "bumps". On the graph Otto provided, there were 30 peaks matched for Meredith, so I guess they normally look for 30 peaks.

So a minimum of 3 people's DNA on the bra clasp, a maximum of 5 people. Most of the experts are saying 3 to 4. Most of them are saying 1 guy, 2 to 3 girl profiles on the clasp.

The largest peaks are clearly Merediths. Sollecito has 19 unique alleles to match for his profile, Amanda has 21 unique alleles left to match hers. Guede is unknown. This is assuming we are engaged in suspect centric testing.

We have 37 peaks available to us to match Amanda's 21 and Sollecito's 19. Since they overlap by 3, the unique footprint for the two of them is down to 18 and 16. That's a total of 34 unique peaks between the two of them. DNA experts state that the strong peaks of Meredith's profile will cause a stutter (I view at as an echo) in an adjoining allele. Apparently some of these echos are in the same place as Raffaelle and Amanda's peaks. So the total data points you are allowed to look at narrows even further.

Now, I'm not sure I understand, but would you expect to see all 30 show up or not? I've seen matches at 28 and 29, with explanation that occasionally peaks drop out, but I haven't seen a confirmation for 16 out of 30. Multiple DNA is different I think, because of the overlap?

Anyway, We have 37 unique peaks. So far, the internets say of the 19 we need to match for Sollecito, there is a match of between 11-19 of those peaks. We know that if Amanda was the other person that touched the clasp, that would only generate a matching profile to Sollecito on 3 peaks. 11 is a hell of a lot higher than 3.

If we assume Sollecito innocent, and we want to believe his profile is not on this clasp, then since there is multiple DNA the first assumption is that the other people's DNA on the clasp has combined to match Sollecito's profile.

i.e. their peaks have to match Sollecito's and not each others in 11 to 19 places, depending on how you read the original report.

So, if there are 11 that match Sollecito, and there are 2 people besides Meredith that touched the clasp, you would need an overlap of their DNA on 5 and 6 peaks respectively. If it's 3 people, they would have to match by 3, 3, and 4.

If there are 19 matches for Sollecito, 2 people would have to have 10 and 9, and 3 people would have to have 7, 6, and 6.

SO, I would say if the data indicates that there are 3 profiles that aren't Meredith's on the DNA, and 11 peaks match Sollecito, then you can't infer it's his DNA. That's because Amanda matched him in 3 unique places that Meredith did not, so it's feasible for people to match him around 3 to 4 places and not to each other. If there are only 2 extra profiles then... a 60% likelihood that it's him? (I'm sure there's a real way to figure this out).

If there are all 19 peaks, it appears past reasonable doubt to me.

 

[Nova]

and since they told Amanda she'd get 30 years if she didn't confess, told Patrick he'd get half of 30 if he would confess then I have no doubt they told Rudy (?)

Wow! I didn't know they said that to PL. That does rather change my understanding of the oft-repeated axiom that there are no "plea bargains in the Italian judicial system".

 

[Nova]

Thank you Steve. if there wasn't a difference we'd all believe her black lace panties were stored in a jar of liquid!

I started to correct otto's choice of words the other day, looked up the word in question and realized he was right and I was wrong.

You and Steve are correct that we in the U.S. don't usually refer to bras as "underwear", but otto is correct that technically they are. I think the point of his use of the term "underwear" in this case was to emphasize that RS' DNA was found in a place that is difficult to explain by everyday behavior.

So difficult to explain, frankly, yet so perfectly convenient for the prosecution that I've come to think it quite likely that it was planted by someone.