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I align with your, and Old Steve's hypothesis of what happened. I will add one more layer to it though. I believe the connection to the Niswender murder is real, and should be investigated vigorously. These girls did something (that in the mind of the Perp) offended him. I do not believe her disappearance from the party was an accident or a perfect storm scenario. I believe the Perp stalked her, and planned well in advance. Perhaps he attended previous concerts where he became a casual known to her, but the opportunity to snatch her without detection didn't present itself.
The genre of the music and what it communicates should be considered as well. For an unbalanced mind it could seem like "instructions". The mere symbol of the band with the pick axe and it's dripping blood and the repetitive underworld lyrics are enough to set a borderline type in to action. If indeed this same Perp murdered the Niswender girl in Dec 2012, he probably felt relief and satisfaction....until the compulsion started building in him again. This of course, is just all amateur speculation. However, the theory isn't so far fetched that it shouldn't be explored IMO...
<respectfully snipped>
Re: connection to Niswender case. You've obviously given this some thought.
There were two Niswender sisters (twins) and two Bruck sisters who seemed to be friends. A photo of the four young women is posted elsewhere in this discussion. In your scenario, did the perp specifically target Julia Niswender and Chelsea Bruck instead of Jennifer Niswender and Kassandra Bruck? Were/Are they potential targets of the perp, or was he specifically targeting Julia whom we know was murdered and Chelsea who remains missing?