MN MN - Joshua Guimond, 20, Collegeville, 9 Nov 2002 - #2

[Ciriii57]

i do think this couldd be a possibilty! but how does josh get back into his room without swiping in? let in by a roommate? let in by a monk? door wedged open?? if josh did make it back to st maur house,played music,this means that something bad maybe took place in st maur house or outside it...in fact im trying to picture myself as a 'fly on the wall' in this scenario!!

im listening to music.i dont know this but someone is going to try to lure me into a dangerous situation. maybe ive had a confrontation with them, or im about to have a confrontation. but not immediately.theyre not going to come in and punch me or assault me. its loud. its going to be heard. this person is calculated. its not sneaky enough to come in right now. whoever wants me in this dangerous situation is intelligent. theyre going to lure me out of the dorm room by a knock on the door,i open the door and go outside with them...this means they didnt swipe in and i didnt swipe out....no trace of door entry and exit logs... <<<<<<< thats what i think might have happened (my objective opinion of course)

We seem to be on the exact same page I think.
There are still some things to work out. One of them being the keycard. I can't explain how Josh entered without being recorded...that really bothers me. If someone had let him in then surely they'd have said so. Was the door propped open, possibly. Did the system fail, maybe.?
Could someone who had access have been already waiting for Josh and let him in? Who had access? Nick...but he was with Katie. Staff members, I assume so.
This is where this whole theory falls down, this one little point. And it drives me crazy.
Every single theory and idea has a stumbling block which seems to be some small thing that can't be proved either way!

 

[puzzleworldplanet]

We seem to be on the exact same page I think.
There are still some things to work out. One of them being the keycard. I can't explain how Josh entered without being recorded...that really bothers me. If someone had let him in then surely they'd have said so. Was the door propped open, possibly. Did the system fail, maybe.?
Could someone who had access have been already waiting for Josh and let him in? Who had access? Nick...but he was with Katie. Staff members, I assume so.
This is where this whole theory falls down, this one little point. And it drives me crazy.
Every single theory and idea has a stumbling block which seems to be some small thing that can't be proved either way!

the wedged open door is very possible. system failing, i dont think so because it recorded nick entering later in the early hours of the morning and nick himself acknowledges the time he entered.i agree this is an annoying point but it could be as simple as a wedged door.i dont think this theory falls down because of this door issue.some crimes are often solved without knowing every little minutiae

 

[Squeelz]

I'm really sorry, this was a mistake about Eric. I don't know half as much of the minutiae about this case as many of you, and am still catching up, so please excuse any mistakes and feel free to correct me.


Just wanted to say as well; I really don't think we should forget and dismiss the fact that there were a series of attempted abductions and, in one case, sexual assault, on students and young men walking alone at night in the area at this time by a group of men. Added to the fact that Josh was talking to strangers online and LE have speculated Josh was exploring his sexuality, I think this is important to take into account. Despite discrepancies in Nick’s version of events which is very suspicious, surely we must consider these attempted abductions etc as being a very likely explanation?

No need to apologize! Yes, i agree - especially the story from Simply Vanished about the guy who got in the truck with the four scary men and had to run for his life, awful. One really has to wonder if the same group is responsible for this too, maybe getting some answers about that situation could help?

 

[Ciriii57]

the wedged open door is very possible. system failing, i dont think so because it recorded nick entering later in the early hours of the morning and nick himself acknowledges the time he entered.i agree this is an annoying point but it could be as simple as a wedged door.i dont think this theory falls down because of this door issue.some crimes are often solved without knowing every little minutiae

Thank you I was disheartened and you've made me realise it doesn't make it impossible. Yes...it might just be as silly as the door wasn't closed all the way so he didn't need to use the keycard. Crazier coincidences have happened in these cases.

 

[Ciriii57]

No need to apologize! Yes, i agree - especially the story from Simply Vanished about the guy who got in the truck with the four scary men and had to run for his life, awful. One really has to wonder if the same group is responsible for this too, maybe getting some answers about that situation could help?

Yes was that the one where they took him to some swamp land and tried to force him to commit a sex act? It seemed like the same red vehicle (or it had a red interior, I forget) was involved in these incidents.
I keep it there in the back of my mind because despite Nick seeming more and more of a suspect, I can't dismiss these attempted abductions as a huge coincidence.
I would love to get some answers about this, particularly if the same things were happening in other close by towns and whether LE ever managed to find out who it was? I know they identified the driver of the orange car but I don't know if the two are related.

 

[puzzleworldplanet]

Thank you I was disheartened and you've made me realise it doesn't make it impossible. Yes...it might just be as silly as the door wasn't closed all the way so he didn't need to use the keycard. Crazier coincidences have happened in these cases.

i felt the same way for a second!! but i think the theory stands strong. you said weve got a few things left to think about,so heres some extra thoughts

in the netflix doc,nick says (about 2.42 am when he keycarded back in to st maur house): "I went home. I went upstairs. I noticed JOsh wasn't in his room. But I just said oh he must still be at the party."

"The next morning. I saw he still wasnt there and i thought that was weird"

so if josh was playing music at 12.32am. lets say nick leaves at 1am when katie said he left.....

whatever happened,took place between ~1:15am - 2.42am. when nick does keycard back in, josh now really isnt there (because he had already been taken away at that point). so in realistic terms thats 1 hour 20 mins (approx) where something sinister could have (and mostly like did) happen(ed). my objective opinion again.

 

[Ciriii57]

so if josh was playing music at 12.32am. nick leaves at 1am when katie said... whatever happened,happened between ~1:15am - 2.42am. when nick does keycard back in, josh now really isnt there (because he had already been taken away at that point). my objective opinion again

I agree with everything above.

in the netflix doc,nick says (about 2.42 am when he returned to st maur house): "I went home. I went upstairs. I noticed JOsh wasn't in his room. But I just said oh he must still be at the party."

"The next morning. I saw he still wasnt there and i thought that was weird"

Maybe it's just me, but again I find this behaviour unusual. Maybe others wouldn't. We now can now say that when Nick got back Joshs computer was playing music to itself as well as the TV playing away. Josh wasn't there. Wouldn't that strike you as strange, if not annoying...All that noise?
Perhaps they were both muted? Wouldn't the music and TV have bothered him if he was trying to sleep? Even in a separate room you'd hear it I think. Maybe not depending on the layout.
Was Josh’s room door open for him to know he wasn't there? Or did Nick habitually check on whether Josh was present whenever he got back, was it normal for him to go in and check? Again I suppose he could have just called out and got no response.

 

[puzzleworldplanet]

I agree with everything above.


Maybe it's just me, but again I find this behaviour unusual. Maybe others wouldn't. We now can now say that when Nick got back Joshs computer was playing music to itself as well as the TV playing away. Josh wasn't there. Wouldn't that strike you as strange, if not annoying...All that noise?
Perhaps they were both muted? Wouldn't the music and TV have bothered him if he was trying to sleep? Even in a separate room you'd hear it I think. Maybe not depending on the layout.
Was Josh’s room door open for him to know he wasn't there? Or did Nick habitually check on whether Josh was present whenever he got back, was it normal for him to go in and check? Again I suppose he could have just called out and got no response.

i come back to what we discussed earlier

katie said nick left between 1-1.30am
nick told sheriffs he left at 2.30am according to netflix doc. (however he contradicts himself...in the netlix doc he said he left around 2am (so this raises 2 separate issues, lets call them #issue #1 and issue #2).

flatmate said he overheard an argument between josh and nick
nick denies argument between him and josh took place (issue #3)

this guy is supposed to be a senior political science major who participated in mock trials where you have to be OCD level correct, obsessively correct about facts in order to succeed in this field. your 'best friend' goes missing and you give sheriffs conflicting times with the persons dorm you left,and say your flatemate from your dorm is lying (thats effectively what hes done by denying there was an argument)

and i also find that behaviour unusual for all the same reasons you do

 

[Squeelz]

Yes was that the one where they took him to some swamp land and tried to force him to commit a sex act? It seemed like the same red vehicle (or it had a red interior, I forget) was involved in these incidents.
I keep it there in the back of my mind because despite Nick seeming more and more of a suspect, I can't dismiss these attempted abductions as a huge coincidence.
I would love to get some answers about this, particularly if the same things were happening in other close by towns and whether LE ever managed to find out who it was? I know they identified the driver of the orange car but I don't know if the two are related.

From everything I’ve read it sounds like separate parties. I believe the one where they tried to SA the guy was four men in a truck? I’ll have to listen to the podcast again. He got away somehow and ran to a nearby place where people were smoking outside and they let him crash there for the night. It was the week or two after Josh disappeared, correct? Or am I combining incidents…

 

[Squeelz]

Yep, this is my impression too, and also seems to be the standard of how they work in most campuses across the world. I assume that a key was still required to access the actual dorm/Josh's private room though? (They must have had locks) If this is the case then his keys were there in the room. He had to take the keys and keycard with him to the poker party to get back into is room ergo if the keys were there the logical conclusion is that Josh, or someone else, returned them. This creates a few scenarios:
1) Josh did return to his room and left his keys there
2) Someone else returned the keys to Josh's room
But each scenario then has it's own problems:

• If Josh was in his room and left again, why didn't he take his keys? Possibly he was just meeting someone at the entrance and supposed he wouldn't be leaving Maur House?
• If someone else placed the keys there in order to make it look like Josh had been in his room, then why? What possible reason could they have? Also...whatever the intention was, it failed as the most popular belief was always that he never made it back to his room.
• Did something bad happen actually in Josh's room I doubt it..too risky trying to carry a body through the halls and there was no evidence of foul play in the room.
• How many people had access to Josh's room that night to do this, besides Josh himself?

BBM-That is a great point that I never considered! It is one of those small pieces of information that we don't have that could really be quite crucial...Were there unused contact lenses found in his room or had he ran out?
I would agree with what your friends also said about the circumstances of wearing them too.
I used to work in an opticians so have some basic knowledge and I would also like to add that the "type" of lense case could be important. Josh can't have been wearing Daily disposable lenses because you don't use a case for them, you just throw them away. Back in 2002 there were really only 2 other options; monthly disposable and hard lenses. They both have different cases but basically if it was monthlies then I agree with you @puzzleworldplanet that it proves nothing because generally people have tonnes of these empty cases lying around. However if it was Hard lenses then they are much more expensive and difficult to manufacture. You just have the 1 set at a time and they're designed to be worn for up to a year and basically if it was these and they weren't in their case, I guarantee they were in his eyes! You wouldn't run out or lose them.
Again...we have no idea!


I had actually considered that he may have gone to swap his glasses for his contacts funnily enough! I read that LE "theorised" that he went back to grab more beers.
I can't understand why they needed to theorise though-why didn't they just ask Greg and Alex? I am sure they would have remembered and I am sure Josh would have told them "Oh I'm just going to grab...." whatever it was!

This case has ALOT if information available, with a pretty good timeline and names of all the major players. But I believe that there are some very small, and possibly overlooked, pieces of information that would break the case and we just don't have them. I also think the friend's timeline from the party is "off" by about 10 minutes.

Good point about swapping glasses for contacts - if it was cold out he might’ve realized his glasses were fogging up and swapped them

 

[Squeelz]

No, you're right. Please excuse the mistake! It was Eric who recollected why he left the party. I don't know if the person who saw him at 11.57 was ever revealed except they were someone who knew him well.


It would check out. But I find it too specific. I've rarely heard such a specific time, as opposed to "about midnight". I'd really like to now how this person was able to be so specific. Of course, they may have just happened to check the clock after seeing him pass by...hell of a coincidence.


That's some amazing sleuthing! So basically either 2 people lied about Nick, or Nick lied. So Nick...why would you be lying about significant events and times. Even if Nick is innocent of any wrongdoing, it suggests that he has some knowledge of something that he was hiding.


I honestly believe it's crucial. I really do believe this places Josh in his room from 11.52 to at leaast 12.32. Flicking through songs for some reason. I'm convinced that we can trust the time log on the computer and that the people at the party just estimated. I don't think it was on purpose, but I think unknowingly they confused things. I don't believe they could be accurate about timing and yet also not really remember him leaving. Those two things exclude eachother. "Oh I don't really remember him leaving but it was definitely at 11.55" hmmmm

12.32 is when the music stopped. I suppose that doesn't mean that something happened to Josh then. He may have just stopped listening and watched TV, read a book or gone to sleep instead?

If we believe Katie then Nick leaves hers sometime between 1 and 1.30. His next confirmed location is 2.42 when he keys back into is room. That means Nick has at least 1 hour and 40 mins to do something. At this point I'd really like to hear from a local who can tell me: if you left campus with intent to commit a crime or hide a body, taking into account the drive to the location and back again, where is your most likely destination?
Has LE ever conducted any searches of areas off campus? I reckon Josh will be found somewhere within about a 30 min drive, off campus. But I'd need to hear local knowledge as to where it woukd be most possible to access.

I wish we could get the list of songs Josh listened to (if it was him at the computer), might give some insight into the mood he was in (or whomever it was at his computer I guess)

 

[charminglane]

Good point about swapping glasses for contacts - if it was cold out he might’ve realized his glasses were fogging up and swapped them

Did Josh need his glasses to read the computer screen?

 

[Ciriii57]

From everything I’ve read it sounds like separate parties. I believe the one where they tried to SA the guy was four men in a truck? I’ll have to listen to the podcast again. He got away somehow and ran to a nearby place where people were smoking outside and they let him crash there for the night. It was the week or two after Josh disappeared, correct? Or am I combining incidents…

Transcript from the simply Vanished Podcast which mentions all of these things that had happened:

According to Joshua Newville, host of the podcast "Simply Vanished", there were a series of attacks, stalkings, and attempted abductions of young men in the area around the time of Josh's disappearance. About a year prior, a man reportedly pulled a male student into the bushes and held his head underwater. The night before Josh's disappearance, a young man left a bar in St. Joseph, a city close to Saint John's, and was "jumped" and attacked by at least two men.
Around that same time, a young male student was walking in the same area where Josh was last seen when he was picked up by four college-age men in a double-cab pickup truck. They drove him to a swampy area near campus, where he was told to perform a sexual act on the driver. When the driver got out to go to the back of the car, the student ran off. The men chased after him and searched for him with flashlights, but fortunately, he was able to escape.
Another man described how, a couple of weeks after Josh's disappearance, he was walking home from a party in St. Joseph at around 2am when a car stopped in front of him. Two large men got out and started aggressively walking toward him. He turned around and ran away. They chased after him, but he was able to escape.
This witness described the two men as being about forty years old, taller than 5'10", and weighing over 200 pounds. They had gruff facial hair and were driving a late 1980s or early 1990s two-door, dark-colored car with a red interior, long doors, and a built-in luggage rack on the top of the trunk.
Around that same time, a young man was walking in St. Joseph when a car with three men inside pulled up and asked for directions to a specific house. After he gave the directions, they opened their car door and said, "Well, get in, and we'll go". The man felt "creeped out", so he ran away. The car followed him to another street, so he ran and hid behind some houses until a friend was able to pick him up. His description of the car and men was similar to the description given by the previous witness.
In August 2003, a man was walking to his car in a dark area on Saint John's campus when he noticed he was being followed by a vehicle containing four men. When he got to his car, he noticed the men were sitting in their car, staring at him. He immediately left the area. However, it is not known if these incidents are related to Josh's disappearance.

Sounds like these are all the same men stalking young males in the area. It's a big coincidence!

 

[Ciriii57]

I wish we could get the list of songs Josh listened to (if it was him at the computer), might give some insight into the mood he was in (or whomever it was at his computer I guess)

@DarkJodo has this list. I am unsure as to what information he is allowed to share publicly; but perhaps if he can't give us the actual songs, or at least those that were skipped, he could provide us with the genre/style?
Since this was Josh's downloaded favourites I assume it was a diverse list but I do wonder which were skipped.

 

[Ciriii57]

I can't share the link directly here, but it is part of the transcript of one of the many podcasts or TV shows that covered Josh's case which someone has helpfully provided. I knew alot of this info, but had also forgot or missed much of it and I found it useful to have it all in one place. It is regarding Josh's computer use and who he was chatting with. Just putting Nick to the side momentarily because everything below seems like it needs to be kept in consideration:

...They looked at Josh's emails, but there was nothing out of the ordinary about them. However, other things piqued their interest.
Lieutenant Weiss discovered that Josh was spending time on Yahoo Personals in the month before he disappeared. Investigator Struffert identified three profiles that Josh used. One of them had part of his name and his zip code. He mainly used it to talk in law and sports-related chat rooms. The other two profiles portrayed him as a woman: "CoochieCoo2002" and "GwenGirlBigJugs". Investigators discovered that he was using these profiles to chat online with men, often talking to them in a "sexual" way.
It appeared that Josh was regularly up in the middle of the night, using the latter two profiles to talk to people in Yahoo chat rooms. He talked with straight, bisexual, and gay men. He also visited chat rooms geared toward lesbian and bisexual women. He viewed dozens of profiles and exchanged pictures with several people. He also visited webcam chat rooms. He seemed particularly interested in chatting and webcamming with heterosexual couples.
On October 28, 2002, Josh reported another user for violating Yahoo Chat's Terms of Service. Around that same time, he had a twenty-eight-minute phone call with an unknown person using his phone card. Shortly afterward, he deleted the Yahoo chat program and its user folders from his hard drive. This occurred less than two weeks before he disappeared.
The examination of Josh's computer has led Lieutenant Weiss to believe Josh might have had some secrets he did not want to share with others. Lieutenant Weiss has also come to believe that Josh was looking for casual encounters with people he met online.
Lieutenant Weiss theorizes that Josh was exploring his sexuality. Josh had viewed and/or saved both heterosexual and homosexual on his computer. However, most of his loved ones had no indication that he might have been gay or transgender. Katie does not think he was gay; she says she never got that "impression" from him. She was not aware of him exploring his sexuality while they were together. Nick says he never saw any sign that Josh was gay. However, a male friend of Josh's says that in high school, Josh tried to kiss him.
Unze wonders if one of the people Josh was talking to online found out he was a man and not a woman. He believes it would have been embarrassing for that person. He wonders if they might have decided to find Josh, meet him, and harm him.
One theory mentioned by investigators is that Josh met someone online, chatted with them, and planned to meet up with them on the night of his disappearance. Investigator Struffert thinks that could explain why Josh abruptly left the party. He wonders if Josh met with someone he did not know well and was harmed by them.

Dana believes that Josh had secrets. She wonders if those secrets got him killed.

My main takeaways were:

• He seemed particularly interested in chatting and webcamming with heterosexual couples.
• He talked with straight, bisexual, and gay men
• he was using these profiles to chat online with men, often talking to them in a "sexual" way.
• He also visited chat rooms geared toward lesbian and bisexual women
• Josh had viewed and/or saved both heterosexual and homosexual pornog raphy on his computer
• He viewed dozens of profiles and exchanged pictures with several people. He also visited webcam chat rooms
• a male friend of Josh's says that in high school, Josh tried to kiss him
• Katie does not think he was gay......Dana believes that Josh had secrets. She wonders if those secrets got him killed.

Now, whether Josh was gay or straight is not the issue; but it really does sound like there was some "blossoming" in him sexually. It seems like he was definitely exploring his interests. He was chatting with heterosexual couples, gay, straight and bi men and visiting lesbian chat rooms. And he was downloading both hetero- and homosexual graphy.
Could LE be onto something with what they have found? Could it be that Josh placed homself in a dangerous situation? I think yes, it is possible.
I always find it interesting between Katie and Dana. Listning to them speak about Josh it's like they are describing 2 different people. Did Josh's personality change? Is this related to this activity? Dana seems open to the fact that Josh had "secrets". Katie ..less so. I think Josh and Katie had drifted so much that she didn't even know him that well anymore. Did his "secrets" get him killed?

And finally, I had never picked up on the fact that Josh had tried to kiss a male friend in High School. Is there any chance that Josh made an unwanted pass at one of his roommates, Nick maybe..or someone and it didn't go down well.

 

[puzzleworldplanet]

i can understand people thinking about the playlist itself,but i dont think the songs matter much! i think the key is the times the music was played,because i think this case is solved by 'connecting the dots' like weve done so far.i actually dont think we are a million miles away with the theory we had earlier

 

[puzzleworldplanet]

I can't share the link directly here, but it is part of the transcript of one of the many podcasts or TV shows that covered Josh's case which someone has helpfully provided. I knew alot of this info, but had also forgot or missed much of it and I found it useful to have it all in one place. It is regarding Josh's computer use and who he was chatting with. Just putting Nick to the side momentarily because everything below seems like it needs to be kept in consideration:



My main takeaways were:

• He seemed particularly interested in chatting and webcamming with heterosexual couples.
• He talked with straight, bisexual, and gay men
• he was using these profiles to chat online with men, often talking to them in a "sexual" way.
• He also visited chat rooms geared toward lesbian and bisexual women
• Josh had viewed and/or saved both heterosexual and homosexual pornog raphy on his computer
• He viewed dozens of profiles and exchanged pictures with several people. He also visited webcam chat rooms
• a male friend of Josh's says that in high school, Josh tried to kiss him
• Katie does not think he was gay......Dana believes that Josh had secrets. She wonders if those secrets got him killed.

Now, whether Josh was gay or straight is not the issue; but it really does sound like there was some "blossoming" in him sexually. It seems like he was definitely exploring his interests. He was chatting with heterosexual couples, gay, straight and bi men and visiting lesbian chat rooms. And he was downloading both hetero- and homosexual *advertiser censored* graphy.
Could LE be onto something with what they have found? Could it be that Josh placed homself in a dangerous situation? I think yes, it is possible.
I always find it interesting between Katie and Dana. Listning to them speak about Josh it's like they are describing 2 different people. Did Josh's personality change? Is this related to this activity? Dana seems open to the fact that Josh had "secrets". Katie ..less so. I think Josh and Katie had drifted so much that she didn't even know him that well anymore. Did his "secrets" get him killed?

And finally, I had never picked up on the fact that Josh had tried to kiss a male friend in High School. Is there any chance that Josh made an unwanted pass at one of his roommates, Nick maybe..or someone and it didn't go down well.

maybe darkjodo can give us his 2 cents but i read nothing into that stuff. the "tried to kiss a male friend" thing....dudes sometimes get so drunk they do something stupid and regret it. if there was a string of guys this happened to, then id look into it deeper, but if someone is gay or bisexual, there wouldnt be one event, there would be multiple signs and i just dont get that feeling. as far as dana saying about 'secrets',i think everyone has some secrets.if darkjodo looked at the computer and found evidence of any secrets im sure he would share it. im not dismissing it,its possible, but i cant look past what we've discovered. i think if we continue connecting the dots with timestamps as our backup,i think we get this solved

 

[Ciriii57]

i can understand people thinking about the playlist itself,but i dont think the songs matter much! i think the key is the times the music was played,because i think this case is solved by 'connecting the dots' like weve done so far.i actually dont think we are a million miles away with the theory we had earlier

You are correct; the play list is not important in itself. Only the times. I think there was just some curiosity about the songs. Maybe to gauge his mood (although it's probably not possible like that). And it is always nice and sometimes useful to build a more complete picture of a person.

 

[puzzleworldplanet]

You are correct; the play list is not important in itself. Only the times. I think there was just some curiosity about the songs. Maybe to gauge his mood (although it's probably not possible like that). And it is always nice and sometimes useful to build a more complete picture of a person.

no i think its a good suggestion,it would be interesting to know the music,but i know women who listened to 'emo' music and they were happy and they just loved that genre.i think the fact someone has been using the computer means josh or someone else was in st maur house and i think it gives a good indicator of what time the crime took place,although i think its prior to 2.42 am.i wish we know if josh got home because in the beginning,i didnt think he did....but now....i am changing my mind and think him getting home is likely.as we said...i just cant figure out the keycard situation.the door must have been pinned open. i cant think of any other way

 

[Ciriii57]

maybe darkjodo can give us his 2 cents but i read nothing into that stuff. the "tried to kiss a male friend" thing....dudes sometimes get so drunk they do something stupid and regret it. if there was a string of guys this happened to, then id look into it deeper, but if someone is gay or bisexual, there wouldnt be one event, there would be multiple signs and i just dont get that feeling. as far as dana saying about 'secrets',i think everyone has some secrets.if darkjodo looked at the computer and found evidence of any secrets im sure he would share it. im not dismissing it,its possible, but i cant look past what we've discovered. i think if we continue connecting the dots with timestamps as our backup,i think we get this solved

I don't think whether Josh was straight, gay, bi, trans or whatever is important. But I do think there might be some relevance in whether what he was doing as a result endangered him and I think there is a definite chance that it could have done.
Everyone back then was chatting online and downloading pornog raphy. But Josh was doing something beyond this, he was pretending to be a different gender and we aren't sure why or what he was up to as well as the other stuff with random people online. He was not telling his friends about it either and he had reported someone for something and deleted his account...there was something happening that we don't yet have a clear picture of.

I certainly am not dismissing the Nick theory; I am in total agreement with you that it makes alot of sense out of every situation especially everything we recently pieced together with the timeline discrepancies. But I personally also have to consider this as well because I can see 2 possibilities that both seem to have merit.
I don't want to make the mistake LE made and focus solely on 1 idea (ie: the lake) to the possible detrimental exclusion of other ideas. I would definitely like to explore it.