Found Deceased MO - Toni Anderson, 20, North Kansas City, 15 Jan 2017 #3

[Dr.Strangelove]

I've heard that her phone died shortly, maybe a few hours after she went missing.

I heard today someone say some people at the Shady Lady lived near where her phone last pinged.

If she was seeing clients then that could be a good lead.

Where was her phone pinging at 4:42?

Was there really a cop watching her pump gas as late as 4:40 as Helmuth burped up early on.

Was that the same cop who stopped her at 4:20?

Why won't they release the footage of her movements at the QT?

What are they trying to hide?

I doubt they are hiding anything. They have no reason to release the tape, and even if there isn't anything bad on the tape it could hurt the investigation. Its good for an investigation if the police with hold details that don't need to be released.

 

[Megster024]

Right, I understand there's been reports of an impersonator, but it still seems unlikely. I believe the phone was on until 9:30pm, so it more than likely wasn't submerged from 5am-ish to 9:30 pm-ish right? Am I missing something? I still lean towards her running away.


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[Dr.Strangelove]

Your second theory is what I have believed all along. I have some other nuggets of ideas to support this.

My only thing is that with the last theory, I would think the police would have a good idea who she was meeting. They probably wouldn't need to ask for public help the way they did

 

[Dr.Strangelove]

Right, I understand there's been reports of an impersonator, but it still seems unlikely. I believe the phone was on until 9:30pm, so it more than likely wasn't submerged from 5am-ish to 9:30 pm-ish right? Am I missing something? I still lean towards her running away.


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That is true it isnt super common. I have no info about the phone, but I'd think it couldn't have been on and functioning if submerged in water

 

[MaxManning]

Not to change the subject, but the crime rate in Chicago right now is extremely high, even when you don't put it into different sections. I'd say KC's is pretty high right now for the city's norm as well.

Well, if we focus on murders.
762 in Chicago in 2016
201 in KC.

762 murders w/ 2.7 million population
201 murders w/ 460k population


Rough numbers :


KC = 1 murder per 2300 people

CHI = 1 murder per 3500 people


KC = 43 murders per 100k people

CHI = 28 murders per 100k people


So... I'll leave you with that.

Unless my math is wrong (has been before!) , then my impression based on the crime density maps are holding water atm.

 

[Megster024]

My only thing is that with the last theory, I would think the police would have a good idea who she was meeting. They probably wouldn't need to ask for public help the way they did

I wasn't aware they asked for help. Do you have a link handy you can share please?


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[sophie taylor]

Maybe she faked a text about getting pulled over again so her friends would think she's in jail and not sound the missing alarm.

Also. What cop would escort a local to a gas station in town?

That's deep thinking. She could've been inspired by the earlier stop to make it look like the cops stopped her again and maybe did something to her. This is crazy speculation, but crazy things happen all the time. I'm not feeling the hoax theory, though. Why would she sweat a trivial traffic stop with an OMG that happened some twenty minutes earlier? I don't think she did.

 

[Dr.Strangelove]

Well, if we focus on murders.
762 in Chicago in 2016
201 in KC.

762 murders w/ 2.7 million population
201 murders w/ 460k people


Rough numbers :


KC = 1 murder per 2300 people

CHI = 1 murder per 3500 people


KC = 43 murders per 100k people

CHI = 28 murders per 100k people


So... I'll leave you with that.

Unless my math is wrong (has been before!) , then my impression based on the crime density maps are holding water atm.

I think this isn't quite right due to the total population. Math isn't my strong suite though, so I could be way off. But wouldn't you not want to compare the murders per the same number? If the total population for one is much larger? You'd want to do some sort of equal ratio I think

 

[KMD_KC]

My only thing is that with the last theory, I would think the police would have a good idea who she was meeting. They probably wouldn't need to ask for public help the way they did

To throw people off. If it is a grand scheme scenario they would want the public to assume the authorities assume she bolted or was the victim of something.

 

[Dr.Strangelove]

I wasn't aware they asked for help. Do you have a link handy you can share please?


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Oh I just meant I think they wouldn't have spoken to media ect and would have sort of kept it on the down low, not that the police actually asked for help

 

[misslu]

Josh Helmuth has tweeted a lot. According to him, Toni left at 4:40 and a cop/s saw her pump gas.

Which would be an entire 20 minutes between the reported stop time of 4:20. The cop said he watched her pump gas. Even taking into account the time of the atm transaction, that's a long time to observe someone imo. Did she pump gas, then the cop left, then she attempted a separate atm transaction? If not, the entire ordeal of pulling her over, issuing a warning and directing her across the street and watching her pump gas was 20 minutes.

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[Dr.Strangelove]

To throw people off. If it is a grand scheme scenario they would want the public to assume the authorities assume she bolted or was the victim of something.

I can see that.

 

[MaxManning]

I think this isn't quite right due to the total population. Math isn't my strong suite though, so I could be way off. But wouldn't you not want to compare the murders per the same number? If the total population for one is much larger? You'd want to do some sort of equal ratio I think

That's why I did it per 100k people and how many murders per people.

Here is two ways of calculating :

To find that rate, simply divide the number of murders by the total population of the city. To keep from using a tiny little decimal, statisticians usually multiply the result by 100,000 and give the result as the number of murders per 100,000 people.

[FONT=&quot]2,479,338 / 100,000 = 24.79338. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]That means there are 24.79338 "groups" of 100,000 people in that population. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Now, how many murders would there be for each of those groups? [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]221 / 24.79338 = 8.9136. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]So, for every group of 100,000 people, there are 8.9136 murders. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]8.9136 murders per 100,000 people. [/FONT]

But by all means, you can try and do your own math and correct it. I'm not above error.

 

[Dr.Strangelove]

That's why I did it per 100k people and how many murders per people.


To find that rate, simply divide the number of murders by the total population of the city. To keep from using a tiny little decimal, statisticians usually multiply the result by 100,000 and give the result as the number of murders per 100,000 people.

But by all means, you can try and do your own math and correct it. I'm not above error.

Oh ok I see how you did that. That's probably right math wise. But I know some city's include the counties in those stats and some don't. That could be a contributing factor to high or low murder rates.

 

[kittymittons]

I heard today someone say some people at the Shady Lady lived near where her phone last pinged.

Do you have a source for this information?

 

[KMD_KC]

I can see that.

As unlikely as this scenario seems several facts stick out, IMO, to support this.

 

[heartgoesout]

4:25 traffic stop which took 7 minutes (reasonable)
the QT was right across the street.
4:33 card transactions
9 minutes later at 4:42 text to friend "OMG just just pulled over again"
I think these are reasonable times.
I do not think the police are hiding anything ominous.

 

[kittymittons]

That's why I did it per 100k people and how many murders per people.

Here is two ways of calculating :




But by all means, you can try and do your own math and correct it. I'm not above error.

I mostly was just pointing out that the homicides in Chicago are the highest they've been in two decades, not necessarily comparing to KC via population density. But, KC's homicide rate last year went up 37% from the previous year, so I do recognize that it is indeed a huge issue here.

 

[MaxManning]

Oh ok I see how you did that. That's probably right math wise. But I know some city's include the counties in those stats and some don't. That could be a contributing factor to high or low murder rates.

I pointed that out in my original post.

Crime density maps make it very clear that there are individual areas that are night and day in terms of crime rate. But as I said in that post as well, I think if you compare the worst areas in KC to the worst areas in Chicago, there isn't any great contrast. The crime rates in those bad areas is just simply bad, and therefore they are dangerous areas.

Which is what we are talking about in regards to this case. Your comment about KC somehow not being nearly as dangerous as CHI, is not accurate imo. In both cities, it truly depends on where you are.

If Toni Anderson went NW of that QT, she would be in far greater danger percentage wise than if she was hanging out at that QT. That's just what the numbers say, that's all. My very point was that evaluating at the city scale can be very misleading.

 

[Dr.Strangelove]

As unlikely as this scenario seems several facts stick out, IMO, to support this.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is the case. It seems out there but it also seems fitting and those things do happen.