Regarding the timeline, as a runner, (similar to what several others have noted) the notion of someone training for a half heading out for a run at 7:00, with an appointment at 8:00 seemed a stretch.
However, it occurred to me today (while out for a run actually - continuing to flip this tragedy over and over in my head), that when I'm training for a distance event (half marathon or higher, as Nancy was), that I get fairly regimented in the mileage schedule especially as the race draws closer, and the number of "long-runs" I need prior to the goal.
Especially the longer-runs. IIRC, Nancy's goal race was in Virginia in early September (< 6 weeks away) - she didn't have but maybe 3-4 more weeks with most every long run being fairly important.
Seems BC's affidavit indicated that Carrie had canceled their long-run in Umstead the day prior. [ Doesn't say whether Nancy went/ran anyway on Friday I don't think ].
Maybe because of the cancellation, she felt some pressure to at least get in some miles (even if somewhat unplanned) on Saturday morning before the painting. Maybe she figured she could stretch a run from 7-8 or 7-8:30, and still have time to get to JA's by 9:00. (Granted a little later than JA indicates was planned, but perhaps the 8:00 start time was "soft" (ie, maybe it was a "let's start around 8ish" )).
I don't know how "regimented" or "dedicated" she was, but anyway, it did occur to me that this would be a relatively simple explanation for the 7:00 departure, even with a 8ish appointment. (Need to get in the miles to stay on schedule).
It would be consistent with the other (unconfirmed) post that someone reported seeing someone with relevant clothing around 8am.
It's also been said no one (else?) has claimed to have seen someone jogging at that time (busy time of day, popular running trails). I agree, but do we know for sure that no one (else?) did see her report it, but has been asked not to disclose it publicly yet?.
[ Though during the search time, I would think folks who may have seen her maybe would have reported it (at least SOMEONE), to those leading the search. ]
Anyway, enough of my ramblings from the "run" - continued prayers for all involved.