AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[SlimPickens]

So what you are saying is that he's been lucky, and that's what I said before. But it is still amateurish and shows. Mouth light that transfers saliva, that dangling universal holster that would fumble out his semi if he ran or turned quickly, gloves he couldn't even fit in a trigger guard. These are not criminal "style points" like you focus on but practical lapses in applied thinking. Yeah I agree he might be a bumbling amateur that got away with past scores.. Many do. So it's not his first rodeo in that sense though he's an amateur w/ goofy choices. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

All criminals that successfully executive crimes are lucky, even professional ones.

JMO.

 

[SaraSmile]

A burglary gone wrong and her still being alive don't seem to track, like you said why take her. Unless she got hurt and they panicked and took her (couldn't leave her to call 911 and get caught but felt guilty that she was hurt and thought they would patch her up, I can't imagine.... but I'm not a criminal)

I understand exploring the idea of a burglary that went bad. Hard to believe she may be alive.

JMO

 

[zecats]

What constitutes a burglary “gone wrong?” She wakes up, discovers him/ them ransacking her things and threatens to call 911? In reality, with an iPhone or watch, one only has to ask Siri to do that. Maybe she actually had a bit of fight in her and she ran to do just that and/or even unmasked him in a struggle. Then she could not be left behind. JMO

 

[truecrimel]

Very interested in the RR they towed. When the doordasher was detained, his car was released with him. They’re holding onto the RR for a reason IMO.

 

[stmichael]

LE had some reason to look for that car and driver the other night, before they went to the house and removed the woman and her (possible) son... or whoever the male was. They must have had a good lead to do that. They let all go, but took the RR for inspection. jmo

Yes. They did that based of a federal warrant. Nanos also said (or slipped) in a follow up that the person detained was "their person of interest".

I was watching the live feed from the Culver parking lot of them photographing the rear of the RR, and then putting sealing tape on the doors. But the whole detain and release is not typical (is anything in this case?). I'm sure they're keeping tabs. Let's see what the results bring.

 

[Walela]

I want to know about the camera the FBI took from the guest house (pool house) roof on 2-6-26. drone video
In this article a security expert explains what he believes this camera on the roof signifies. "....-says the location of the camera signifies this was likely a premeditated crime."

What have they discovered from this camera? What was it recording? It was wired but wired to what? Was that a solar panel for power or some sort of an antenna? Who knew it was there? Who put it there? When was it put there? Was it there when the roof was recoated?

 

[cait2007]

Has it been released that anything was taken from the home? Is there anyway of knowing if jewelry or money was missing? I know many elderly people with cash hidden all over and even have safes with cash. The investigative work done early on makes me question if we would really know.

 

[britinsussex]

Sheriff Nanos responds to me about the local Phoenix news report that sites an inside source who says investigators believe the Guthrie case was a burglary gone bad and that Nancy Guthrie is still alive."Did not come from us. No idea and even though that is one of many possibilities we would never speculate such a thing. We will let the evidence take us to motive."

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023192737596764337

This

 

[stmichael]

What constitutes a burglary “gone wrong?” She wakes up, discovers him/ them ransacking her things and threatens to call 911? In reality, with an iPhone or watch, one only has to ask Siri to do that. Maybe she actually had a bit of fight in her and she ran to do just that and/or even unmasked him in a struggle. Then she could not be left behind. JMO

I could see a burglary gone wrong with fatal results. That's easily conceivable and happens, especially with a medically compromised 84 year old. It's basically a trope in crime movies with blundering amateurs. But a burglary gone wrong into a kidnapping is highly unusual. I don't even know how that would go down logistically.

 

[GMG1999]

That is included. It consists of multiple databases. But includes 19.2 million offender profiles and 6.1 million arrestee profiles. But when all is said and done it roughly accounts for 7-8 percent of the US population.

Very helpful. So what percentage of the US Population has committed crimes in the last 20 years?

I have a hard time believing a person commits this type of a crime as a first time offender.

 

[marloweclover]

Based on nothing but my opinion -- a way in which a burglary gone wrong leads to taking NG. Your DNA gets on her body somehow. Maybe she scratches you in self-defense so it's under her nails, something like that. If that happens, plus you know you are already in CODIS, you might think taking her is necessary because you're now identifiable in that way even if she doesn't survive.

 

[Cassie P]

If it was a robbery gone bad, WHY take the body?

-They panicked, did it on the spur of the moment. Didn't want to get caught.
- If NG died suddenly they didn't want a First Degree Murder charge. In AZ I believe like some other states if you are committing a robbery and there is an unintentional death, it is First Degree Murder.
-One of the robbers had another agenda of SA. They couldn't leave DNA evidence.
-The robbers at the scene realized that NG was related to someone famous and they thought they could make some big money.

 

[Sessiebo]

I’ve said a few times a burglary gone wrong seems incredibly unlikely in this case as if it had then I’d expect her to have been found in the home injured or deceased. The only way I could maybe understand her being taken is if she was able to identify the perp(s) but even then I think it’d have been much easier for them to kill her rather than take her. If burglary gone wrong is the situation and she’s currently alive, she’s either going to be found alive because LE know the identities of the kidnappers and find the location she’s at or she’s going to be found dead once they start closing in and the perp panics. Both of which mean they went to the trouble of taking her for what? It just doesn’t make much sense to me as a theory.

Because she did some damage while fighting for her life and he is already in CODIS therefore easily traced?
Idk, just trying to think why
I feel like we give this perp way too much brainpower, he probably isn't that smart and everything after entering the house was inprov based on panic with a dose of luck. - JMO

 

[nerosleuth]

I was wondering the same. Does kidnapper run a full service elderly equipped nursing home type kidnapping lair? Seems like a difficult type person to kidnap who would need a lot of assistance.

Just a thought here.

How about if she is being held in a building that formerly used to be a nursing home? Or a doctors office?

 

[Pharmasgirl]

None of this may be true, but if any of these points are true, this is significant.

She says that a "source says investigators believe this was a burglary gone bad". Perhaps things were taken from the house that LE hasn't revealed? Money or jewelry missing? Wonder what is different now that makes LE say this? If, indeed, they really are thinking that this was a burglary gone bad.

And then she said that a source says that there's "widespread belief by investigators that NG could be alive". Doesn't give any reasons that they believe that NG could be alive but they may have compelling evidence that points to this. If this is true, I imagine we might hear more about this from LE.

If this source is accurate, these points are a very big deal and LE is possibly much further along in this investigation than would appear to the public.

I don't understand how "a burglary gone bad" could quickly pivot to the perpetrators taking NG from the house and without any planning, take her somewhere safe and keep her alive without NG seeing who they are.

JMO

AB also had her LE source she swears by…
who hasn’t yet panned out. All grain of salt til locked UP!

 

[halfpintny]

I try to analyze why certain information is disclosed and other information is not. Why tell us about a random discarded glove being sent for DNA sequencing? They didnt tell us what type of DNA they sent out from the home. Why are they so sure this glove is related? It is similar? Is the other glove in the house? It seems odd and random to me.

 

[Cassie P]

All criminals that successfully executive crimes are lucky, even professional ones.

JMO.

Yes but I think after seeing the lantana man video, we would agree that this guy is not an experienced highly successful professional.

 

[GMG1999]

I could see a burglary gone wrong with fatal results. That's easily conceivable and happens, especially with a medically compromised 84 year old. It's basically a trope in crime movies with blundering amateurs. But a burglary gone wrong into a kidnapping is highly unusual. I don't even know how that would go down logistically.

and let's say she was alive for a bit, how long can she go without meds?

 

[birdbox]

Is the consensus now that she must have been carried out because the blood drops are not smeared? And she could be alive, unconscious, or deceased?

This has been my exact thought on this, I agree with you.

If he carried her out bleeding I feel she would have been bound and wrapped in a tarp. Why would he risk her blood in his vehicle??

 

[cait2007]

But a kidnapper would need to bring a full backpack?
What would a kidnapper need?
Tape, zip ties, equipment to disable cameras, etc.

A few ideas:
- change of clothes, gloves, etc..
- a computer to potentially extort money from her at break in.
- he (not acting alone) already took things from her house to discard as evidence or things he stole from the home had been put inside. This could have been done prior and removing the cam, to remove her from the home, was the last thing before the getaway.

Just ideas- not facts.