AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[SMK777]

If it was a burglary gone wrong, wouldn't it unfortunately be more likely that she is dead?

You would assume so. Very strange.

 

[oc1234]

Also, the "could be alive" statement. If a burglary gone wrong, and burglary was the motive, how and where would a burglar conceal a living NG and for what purpose?

41 minutes in the house.....may there have been talk between them?
Remember the case where a woman was held hostage for a couple of days, but managed to convince him to let her go? She talked religion and faith and redemption with him, and I believe he turned himself in.

This would be a miracle if NG is still alive....somehow, somewhere.

A burglary gone wrong and her still being alive don't seem to track, like you said why take her. Unless she got hurt and they panicked and took her (couldn't leave her to call 911 and get caught but felt guilty that she was hurt and thought they would patch her up, I can't imagine.... but I'm not a criminal)

 

[loves2readhistory]

So it wasn’t actually on the roof. It was high up on the wall of her house and looks like it’s wired to a solar panel on the roof. I have NO clue how LE missed that camera for the first 6 days of the investigation.

It looks similar to this Nest model

So going from your post—
that was likely a camera earlier installed FOR NG—to offer views of her courtyard area in back and used solar power for its operation. A camera NOT BROUGHT by the people who abducted her but long standing in its presence.
If that is true—her camera vs one used to scope out a target—then LE seemed pretty bad at searching a crime scene. As well as not even asking the family for info about cameras that were previously installed…
That lapse in attention/investigation makes LE seem pretty inept IMO.
And it reduces the quality of planning that many of us thought the suspects put into shadowing NG’s house prior to breaking in…

This is all my opinion/analysis — and seeing how that camera was mounted. That was not something set up as a temporary camera to spy on NG—it would take time and effort to install—not just placed on a roof with some tape or mounting putty.

 

[SaraSmile]

Do you think that Nancy left her house alive? Or did something happen during the kidnapping/robbery and she had a medical episode and passed within minutes?

Passed away or subdued, carried out. Blood droplets all the way from front foot to car. Perfectly round droplets, not smeared, she did not walk out, her feet would have smeared the drops.
Just an idea

JMO

 

[Detective Willy]

IMO it's highly unlikely that Nancy is still alive.

I think the perp(s) went to plan B and disposed of Nancy because of the amount of publicity this case has got and feared they would get caught if they tried to go ahead with the ransom.

 

[britinsussex]

Big if true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023181112026259856

How would it be an intended burglary? 1.) A man breaks in to steal and then sees pictures of SG and decides to take it to another level that includes abduction and ransom? Or 2.) a man breaks in, something happens to NG, the perp sees pictures of SG and decides to take her body, then decides to ask for ransom? (Just being honest here-I somewhat knew of SG before all of this, have never watched The Today Show, but I would never recognise her in person, let alone a picture in a woman's home in Tucson, AZ.) jmoo

 

[stmichael]

I put JMO, as I was just guessing how he could have disabled inside cameras.
I’m not sure if we heard yet, how inside cameras were disabled.
Others thought maybe a WIFI scrambler

JMO

Interesting point. I thought about the Wifi being cut because of the odd timing of the camera disabled, then followed by person detected. In many cases just snipping the fiber optic cable coming off the pole would suffice. It's also why I recommend a hardwired POE CCTC system on top of common wifi cams like Ring or Nest. We've all experienced internet outages or a tree taking out our fiber line going into the house.

Wifi jammer packs are somewhat big and need to be exposed, though I suppose he may have had one off camera. I follow a colleague in South Africa who has an X feed for his private security contracting business and they are very common there in home invasions (it's crazy how bloody SA has become these days). I've even seen it in the states in NY lately.

 

[Cassie P]

He’s heavily masked. We see one clip of him walking near the front door, crouching somewhat and looking away from the camera. That’s the only part that makes sense.

We see his masked face close up and in good detail. He knows it – he has looked right into the lens. Around the same time, he’s using his possibly double-gloved hand cupped around the camera lens without blocking it. Why? Thinking of using that to block the view of NG being removed? Or is there someone else who isn’t fully covered up and can’t be recorded?

And then, the lantana. As a means of blocking his own face, it makes no sense and anyway, it’s too late – he’s on camera.

He’s heavily masked. We see one clip of him walking near the front door, crouching somewhat and looking away from the camera. That’s the only part that makes sense.

We see his masked face close up and in good detail. He knows it – he has looked right into the lens. Around the same time, he’s using his possibly double-gloved hand cupped around the camera lens without blocking it. Why? Thinking of using that to block the view of NG being removed? Or is there someone else who isn’t fully covered up and can’t be recorded?

And then, the lantana. As a means of blocking his own face, it makes no sense and anyway, it’s too late – he’s on camera.

If he has already broken in from another entrance, a cloth or towel from the house would do the job. His jacket or backpack would, too. (We see him without the backpack at one point.)

The whole clip would probably tell the story but these fragments make a mystery.

I’ve read the theory about using the stalk of the plant in lieu of a key to remove the camera – maybe, with a strong enough stalk.

After all that kerfuffle, the camera is removed. So maybe the flowers were there to block a few seconds of footage – not of him, though. Wish we had audio!

You are not the first person to see the video and have the reaction that "something is off." This usually means our brain is still trying to process the scene in front of us that does not make sense.

Yes I thought it odd too that he looks right at the camera and then tries to obscure it with the plant. A number of people have guessed that he assumed for some reason that the camera was not working and was surprised to find it still recording and in working order.

Yes good guess, blocking someone else not in disguise? Or blocking NG being carried out the door by an accomplice?

 

[cait2007]

JMO— I believe investigators don’t have enough evidence to conclude she passed away, so they’re saying she could be alive. Unfortunately, I’m guessing there is less than 1% she’s alive even without a body. Keeping an 84 yo woman alive, medicated, and well, after 15 days with no further contact or ransom seems like a stretch. I don’t see the point of dragging this out with someone of her age. What would be the end game? If she was in fact alive, I would almost assume this is more for a control trip than money.
I do honestly hope she is out there healthy and ok, but I don’t think it’s likely.

 

[birdbox]

And, then, what does one do with an 84 yr old, on meds, injured woman?

I was wondering the same. Does kidnapper run a full service elderly equipped nursing home type kidnapping lair? Seems like a difficult type person to kidnap who would need a lot of assistance.

 

[Jenny9]

Tarp or body bag, rope, gag all “ soft” , plus “hard” tools.

J m o

Change of clothes

 

[louvillian08]

Yes, there were 2 solar cameras on the casita. One facing courtyard and one facing the parking area near garage.

The fact that LE somehow didn’t know about those for almost a week makes me wonder if they misinterpreted the 1:47am camera disconnection notification. Could it have been one of those cameras disconnecting? MOO

I would assume the Nest app makes it easy to differentiate between cameras but maybe not since they didn’t know about this one.

 

[cady]

Very interesting in that they say "a burglary that could have gone wrong" and believe NG is still alive.
Many of us thought a burglary that went wrong with NG tragically deceased during the initial attempt. which happens.

I still wouldn't expect a Range Rover in the mix, curious to see how that plays out.

LE had some reason to look for that car and driver the other night, before they went to the house and removed the woman and her (possible) son... or whoever the male was. They must have had a good lead to do that. They let all go, but took the RR for inspection. jmo

 

[abams]

So the burglary went wrong but the suspect(s) were prepared to abduct (or worse, remove the body of) the home's resident? I've been trying to be optimistic that the investigation was on the right track up til now but honestly that just makes me think they're throwing crap at the wall.

Hope the glove DNA returns a hit.

 

[loves2readhistory]

I was originally given the choice of my EP’s preferred pacemaker with leads or paying for the leadless one out of pocket (this was while they were still investigational). Just throwing it out there since I was given the option of an “upgrade” of sorts… at substantial cost. So it’s not always “you get what you get”.

And considering NG’s age, it could be her pacemaker was installed after she was on Medicare. Medicare (from my experience) usually has a baseline item it covers for Advantage or Supplemental plans (like type of lens for cataract replacement) and the patient has the option of upgrading to more of a bifocal lens. I imagine that same thing is true for pacemakers simply because Medicare is premised on paying for needed—not WANTED—medical equipment. Like patient can get one free device with wheels—some people choose to buy roller on their own and get Medicare to pay if they need wheelchair—although that likely won’t be the top level of wheelchair.
JMO

 

[birdbox]

This makes me wonder if he couldn't drive properly with the gloves on. Or perhaps he was trying to restrain NG in the vehicle and they got in his way. They seemed thick and awkward. And pondering what would he do with his layers of clothing and shoes? He took great precautions to not leave DNA, but then what does one do with all of it?
MOO

Also would look very suspicious if pulled over and wearing gloves or even at an intersection and someone glances over like what the heck?

 

[lonetraveler]

I'm thinking that if it was a burglary gone bad, it doesn't make sense that he would take NG with him. He was totally disguised. Why take her with him? This IMO points more to a kidnapping.

 

[thefragile7393]

It's over there by Marana. LE and FBI use helicopters for surveillance when they want to keep track of where people are in a house, when they leave, where they go, etc. Could be surveillance, could be connected with this case or it could be helicopter pilot training. JMO

There is an army national guard training site out there as well

 

[Sessiebo]

Also, the "could be alive" statement. If a burglary gone wrong, and burglary was the motive, how and where would a burglar conceal a living NG and for what purpose?

41 minutes in the house.....may there have been talk between them?
Remember the case where a woman was held hostage for a couple of days, but managed to convince him to let her go? She talked religion and faith and redemption with him, and I believe he turned himself in.

This would be a miracle if NG is still alive....somehow, somewhere.

I believe they keep saying she may be alive to hold onto some hope for the family and to keep the investigation going along with the FBI.
LE stating she's no longer with us makes believe they have definitive evidence that suggests she died. IMO they do not have that kind of evidence so they have to presume she's alive.
Sadly i do not think she's still amongst us.
JMO

 

[Pharmasgirl]

Also, the "could be alive" statement. If a burglary gone wrong, and burglary was the motive, how and where would a burglar conceal a living NG and for what purpose?

41 minutes in the house.....may there have been talk between them?
Remember the case where a woman was held hostage for a couple of days, but managed to convince him to let her go? She talked religion and faith and redemption with him, and I believe he turned himself in.

This would be a miracle if NG is still alive....somehow, somewhere.

Always believe in miracles