• #34,281
I find the timeline of this weird. Like surely the neighbor wouldn’t have called much earlier than AG? I’m not understanding a window where APS would’ve shown up and left a card. Bc it seems like LE would’ve already been on the scene, so wouldn’t APS have just checked in with LE? Why leave the card?

The only way this makes sense to me is if APS was there before cops were called. Bc even if they somehow would’ve arrived before LE, AG would’ve been there. Very tight window assuming the card was left bc no one else was at the house. MOO
Another thing to consider is that NG disappeared on a Sunday. I feel like a message left for APS would have been picked up on Monday morning and taken from there. OMO.
 
  • #34,282
I could be wrong and mixing up cases im following, but I think Nanos did make a statement toward the beginning that he did not believe there to be any danger to the community, that it was their belief this was targeted. Again, I could be wrong. But I THINK it was mentioned early on.
I remember that, as well.
 
  • #34,283
There has also not been any statement that I am aware of, cautioning people, that there is an armed and dangerous man on the loose who presents a significant risk to the community. They knew from the beginning this was a narrow and focused kidnaping. JMO
Similar to the Tepe murder case in Columbus, IMO. I hypothesized that they had a stalker, and I was worried that other Columbusites may be in harm's way. I was only half correct: the Tepes did have a stalker, but a very targeted one. The public wasn't actually at risk and LE likely knew it very quickly.
 
  • #34,284
If the abductor arrived by vehicle, wouldn't someone on NG's street would have ring camera footage? Maybe it didn't pick up the license plate number but maybe they have a make, model and color? How long was it before LE released the info about the white Hyundai Elantra in the BK case?

A few of us who live in a similar neighbor hood set-up discussed this point. My cameras all around my property would not reach out into the street. You can see in the Nest footage, when the suspect is further back w/o the backpack on how blurry and washed out in the camera's IR glow he is.

Between the unusual Tucson low-light ordinance making the neighborhood "shockingly dark" (as one ex-FBI agent on scene said), the landscaping/vegetation and the set-back, spaced out neighbors camera would not record the street (and I believe some have interviewed saying that).

What further complicates this, besides no street light or cameras in the neighborhood, is that nearby major roads only have DOT cameras that do not record. The police doesn't control or record the intersection/street cams in Tucson.
 
  • #34,285
I thought that camera was at, and/or facing the rear or side of the house, maybe installed on the roof of the pool house type building? Happy to stand corrected though.

JMO
Yes you are correct. Apologies. I deleted post. It was a camera on guest house looking over back yard.
 
  • #34,286
Sometimes its unfortunate that the local agency takes the lead in criminal cases.
I think this is probably the biggest case this Sheriff has ever been involved in as the lead. Consequently, priorities that you think should be obvious were not followed.
For example, sending the glove to a DNA lab in Florida, which took a week to return results, instead of giving it to the FBI, who would have done so in a day or so.

And again, focusing on finding DNA hoping it will lead to the criminal when there is a medically compromised 84 year old woman whose life is at stake.


You are probably right about that. I think a ground search by the public in the early days certainly wouldn't have hurt the investigation. I mean, in situations such as these, people really, really want to help and this would have been a good way to allow that to happen.

As a sidenote, I had a dream the other night that they found NG alive and she was being hidden in the desert in an underground tunnel / cave. This means I'm either a visionary, or I'm consuming too much social media on this case!
 
  • #34,287
You are probably right about that. I think a ground search by the public in the early days certainly wouldn't have hurt the investigation. I mean, in situations such as these, people really, really want to help and this would have been a good way to allow that to happen.

As a sidenote, I had a dream the other night that they found NG alive and she was being hidden in the desert in an underground tunnel / cave. This means I'm either a visionary, or I'm consuming too much social media on this case!
No. You are not. There are many elaborate tunnels running underground between border states and Mexico built by the cartels. They are lighted and some they have found had air conditioning. I personally think she went through or is in a tunnel. imo imo
 
  • #34,288
I'm also not seeing a gun in front of his crotch. Cropped from the images in your EXCELLENT post. You can see it in the image on the right, but not the one on the left.

View attachment 646278

Here's the same image showing their entire bodies. Also noticed that the guy on the right has that head light thing on, the other guy does not.

View attachment 646279
In the backpackless image, the suspect's physique is more apparent to me: a slight paunch/gut and not much in the way of pecs. The sort of skinny-fat look those of us in our 30s and 40s struggle to fight!
 
  • #34,289
I could be wrong and mixing up cases im following, but I think Nanos did make a statement toward the beginning that he did not believe there to be any danger to the community, that it was their belief this was targeted. Again, I could be wrong. But I THINK it was mentioned early on.
Bbm.
Agreed with your comment, that's what I recall from early on ?
There's the possibility that the wrong house was targeted if gems were sought-- but still a planned abduction and not random, imo.
 
  • #34,290
I feel like there were no organized ground searches in Tucson where the public was involved because the sheriff came out immediately and adamantly stated that this was an obvious abduction and not a case of an elderly woman wandering off. I think that statement alone pretty much put the kibosh on anyone from the public wanting to organize one of those grid type searches you often see take place in the case of a missing person.
I can see the reasoning behind this - but dang — someone might have found something!! Anything.
 
  • #34,291
JMO I think the person who entered the house went there to kidnap NG and succeeded. The bag may have held items he might need to capture and keep her silent.
 
  • #34,292
I find the timeline of this weird. Like surely the neighbor wouldn’t have called much earlier than AG? I’m not understanding a window where APS would’ve shown up and left a card. Bc it seems like LE would’ve already been on the scene, so wouldn’t APS have just checked in with LE? Why leave the card?

The only way this makes sense to me is if APS was there before cops were called. Bc even if they somehow would’ve arrived before LE, AG would’ve been there. Very tight window assuming the card was left bc no one else was at the house. MOO

It’s reasonable that APS is alerted by LE whenever a senior is reported missing, a mandated procedure. Just because the card was left in the door doesn’t necessarily indicate no one was at the house, just that they weren’t invited in to talk family members who were present so the agent left their calling card. Understandably, APS intervention was not a priority then or now.
JMO


That morning, Guthrie failed to show up at a friend's house to watch a church service online, as she routinely did, so they called her daughter, Annie, who lives nearby, a source close to the family told NBC News.

At 11:56 a.m., the family arrived to check on her, calling 911 at 12:03 to report her missing. Patrol cars arrived at 12:15 p.m. and the search for Guthrie begins.
 
  • #34,293
Wait a minute, didn't Nanos say previously there was no evidence Nancy was taken over the border and they have no reason to believe she's in Mexico and now the FBI has put Mexican authorities on alert? Are these agencies even communicating because it feels like there's two separate investigations going on.

I also noticed Levin used the singular "kidnapper" and Sheriff Nanos said "individual with a target" in his most recent interview. Are we to surmise this was a lone wolf? It seems like it would take more than one person to pull this off, especially if they smuggled Nancy into Mexico, but I could be wrong. JMO.
 
  • #34,294
  • #34,295
JLR IS NOT ALLOWED as a source and is off topic in discussion.
 
  • #34,296

"...A suspect in the Nancy Guthrie investigation could be identified within two days amid a renewed probe into DNA evidence, a former
FBI special agent predicted.

Despite the search for the 84-year-old mother of Today Show star Savannah Guthrie
nearing three weeks without any arrests, John Iannarelli said investigators may be closing in...."

Would be nice if Iannarelli is accurate ??
Of course take this source with the proverbial grain. :rolleyes:

There's also this :


"... Amid mounting pressure on his handling of the investigation, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos insisted on Tuesday that the case is 'far from cold' despite no arrests being made 18 days into Nancy's disappearance.
The sheriff leading the search for missing Nancy Guthrie is facing mounting allegations that his mismanagement crippled the crucial early stages of the investigation ..... a vital search-and-rescue aircraft was grounded in the initial hours of the investigation when it was needed most..."


There is also the impression I have, that sheriff Nanos and the FBI are not on the same page, and it's frustrating when an elderly woman's life is at stake !
Smh.
Omo
 
  • #34,297
JMO I think the person who entered the house went there to kidnap NG and succeeded. The bag may have held items he might need to capture and keep her silent.
Sometimes it is not all smoke and mirrors, it is what it appears to be
 
  • #34,298
I wonder if recent Uber drivers, or car service drivers, have been interviewed. Statistically most are OK, like any group of people, but someone took NG. A hired driver could make friendly, casual conversation, find out she lived alone, had no dog, and could watch or help her get in or out of the car, seeing she couldn't move easily. It would only take a bad guy one trip to make a plan, ugh.

Did AG/TC always drive her home from places at night, or did NG order her own Ubers/cabs?
 
  • #34,299
If the abductor arrived by vehicle, wouldn't someone on NG's street would have ring camera footage? Maybe it didn't pick up the license plate number but maybe they have a make, model and color? How long was it before LE released the info about the white Hyundai Elantra in the BK case?
While that sounds like a good plan for most neighborhoods, I don't think that would work with the layout of NG's. The plants and rocks in the yards make things much more secluded than a neighborhood in other areas that just has grass in the front yard. Here is Brian Entin in front of NG's and he has a similar video at AG's home and the landscaping of both streets look the same.
 
  • #34,300
"Outside of the DNA, we’re also learning more about about what police are looking for. Males with facial hair who match the physical characteristics seen on Nancy’s Nest video — who may have recently purchased guns and have shopped at Walmart."

 

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