• #34,461
Here is the link that @submarine7 appears to be referring to, without giving us that simple answer:

In it, Patel says that the images came from NG's nest camera from the morning she disappeared. Assuming that that's correct, my thought that the "no backpack" photo could have been from January 11 is incorrect.

It still seems likely that this is a thumbnail from a slightly earlier time that night/morning, and that the lack of a shadow is from the moon being obscured by a cloud, from the moon being in a different position at that time, or from the poor resolution of the thumbnail.

(At the risk of a lighter note, we can rule out lantana man being a vampire because he casts a shadow later on.)

JMO
oh duh, i hadn't thought about the moon being in a different position in the sky.

it looks like her porch faces northwest. if the no-shadow picture were later in early morning hours, the moon would be further west than the other images, and you'd expect his shadow to stretch out and gradually point more toward the east, going across the porch and toward the right from the camera's PoV. .... unless something big obstructed it, but i don't see any structures or plants big enough and dense enough to do that. but if it were earlier (perhaps contra patel saying it was the "same morning"), say 10 pm or earlier the night before, you might expect the house's moon-shadow to cover the area where he's standing.

so if this was within 24 hours of the disappearance, and if the lack of shadows isn't due to digital alteration, then i have to think either there's a passing cloud or the image is from the night before, guesstimating sometime in the 7 pm - 11 pm window.
 
  • #34,462
What happened to the two original ransom notes, that came the next day ? One where they asked for payment on Friday and another on Monday (or similar) . I know after these two, there was another fake one and they found him. But also TMZ apparently has now had 4. So are the first two also part of TMZs, I thought these came afterwards. It seems the first two have gone very quiet and almost forgotten about
The first two didn’t both come on the day after NG disappeared. One did, which was followed by another, said to be from the same person, a few days to a week later IIRC.

The arrest wasn’t for a ransom note sent to TMZ, it was for texts sent to AG and TC.

There were then three alleged messages to TMZ from someone claiming to know what happened, asking for a much lower amount than the actual ransom demands, in exchange for the info they say they have.

Now today’s new message is claiming to be from the person who sent the original two, who says they are the kidnapper.

JMO
 
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  • #34,463
1000 POSTS LATER, people speculating on AI vs real images and 2 perps...I dont think there were 2 perps. As everyone knows by now, I have felt from the beginning this was a kidnapper who had a delusional fascination with SG. She is his fantasy girlfriend .He is a marginalized, socially inadequate, man who has a poetic soul and finds his meaning in life through movies and TV. He is fixated on SG. Probably has an area in his home, like an altar, that has her photo, articles about her etc. He thinks when she is on the TODAY show that every word she speaks is CODE, directed at him. He became restless and decided he must have her but he can't. He went for her mom, instead. NOW HE HAS SG's attention. He also has a trophy..SG's mom. He may also have other trophies he took from the home, family photos, or lingerie from SG's old bedroom, for example.

MOTIVE will solve this case, imo. Obsessed stalker. Someone knows him and his devotion to SG. Watching the Today show daily, saving every program she is on, perhaps mentioning her during casual conversations once too often. This is not a 2 perp crime. This guy acted alone. MOO JMO
Maybe this explains why he was apparently in the house for a long time. The valuables to him were items of SG.

MOO
 
  • #34,464
Who presents a “kidnapping for ransom “ event , approx 18 day duration, without never sending proof of the victim being alive ( tied up, blindfolded, on a bed or chair) and the standard “ pay up or else” threats . Something is not adding up .
I can understand the ransom author not wanting to provide proof of life because they don't want to send a photo/video with metadata. Or risk a photo having a clue in the background. Or risk being caught on a street camera dropping off a letter. However, they could've asked NG (if she was abducted by him) what's your favorite memory of your children, what was your husbands favorite food, etc. and written that in the subsequent ransom email.

Either the ransom author couldn't provide proof of life because:
1) they aren't associated with the abduction and don't have NG in their possession (random cyber prankster)
2) they kidnapped her but she died in the process :(

JMO
 
  • #34,465
Thank You for the info! A bit hard for me to follow some of this, not knowing about all the history.

What I got from this is the Big Question, When should a warrant be allowed, with private DNA info? When is a criminal case “worth” exposing private DNA?

JMO
They can promise what they will do VOLUNTARILY i.e NOT SHARING customer DNA with law enforcement. What they are not saying or promising is this: "we cannot promise what a court order can compel them to do." JMO
 
  • #34,466
I don't think the LE is going to state anything about this at this moment.
Idk if it is related but Sheriff Nanos said he believes Nancy is being kept nearby, whatever he based this on besides his belief i really have no clue 😅
My theory is also partially made of hope that Nancy is not discarded somewhere because that's just heartbreaking to think about 😔
Yes, that is my point about LE and the internet searches -- they have stated nothing. So Fox News claiming the internet searches and their dates based on Google Trends is absurd. That is not how Google Trends calculates it's data.
 
  • #34,467
No, the thing next to the plant has moved. I tried to frame the thing in both pictures. It moved more to the background. I'll try again.
Edited to ad picture from Spectrix's post. AZ - Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026
Yes, I see what you see in the background. It appears to be a bag of something, fertilizer or lawn mulch. Or something worse? But worse, the angle of the camera has changed. Notice the tiles; the difference in the angle is apparent there.
 
  • #34,468
  • #34,469

True. However, the problem with providing proof of life is that it can give away details about the surroundings (whether video, photograph or audio) and also raise the question of whether it was AI generated. The persistence that she could be returned if the sum was paid is interesting though especially the fact that the time between notes provided to TMZ have been decreasing in length. The captor probably wants resolution for this as well. Although in their mind that would come in the form of cryptocurrency and whatever the media component of that is that was requested in the most recent note.
I agree it would be very risky to provide proof of life that way but I wonder why they wouldn't provide it another way.

Have Nancy convey some info to her fam that no stranger could know. Or have her answer a question put forth by her kids regarding a family story or inside joke that no outside could guess at.

Lack of that is concerning.
 
  • #34,470
I think this likely is not based on evidence that they have uncovered.

It's likely base on evidence that they haven't been able to find or doesn't exist. JMO
Agreed! It seems that investigators are learning as much from what isn’t there as from what is — the absence of evidence may be just as telling as the evidence they’ve uncovered about the perpetrator and the circumstances of the incident. IMO.
 
  • #34,471
I can understand the ransom author not wanting to provide proof of life because they don't want to send a photo/video with metadata. Or risk a photo having a clue in the background. Or risk being caught on a street camera dropping off a letter. However, they could've asked NG (if she was abducted by him) what's your favorite memory of your children, what was your husbands favorite food, etc. and written that in the subsequent ransom email.

Either the ransom author couldn't provide proof of life because:
1) they aren't associated with the abduction and don't have NG in their possession (random cyber prankster)
2) they kidnapped her but she died in the process :(

JMO
I don't think they ever had any intention of returning her. MOO
 
  • #34,472
  • #34,473
  • #34,474
Who presents a “kidnapping for ransom “ event , approx 18 day duration, without never sending proof of the victim being alive ( tied up, blindfolded, on a bed or chair) and the standard “ pay up or else” threats . Something is not adding up .
According to TMZ, this latest ransom demand does "graphically" describe what will happen if they don't pay (at 1:40): Nancy Guthrie Update: Possibly In Mexico...
 
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  • #34,475
  • #34,476
What I see is after he pulled some of the plant, he folded or balled it up. So, not looking like he was trying to use the specific part of the stems as a tool to pick at the tab of the doorbell cam.
jmo


AB mentioned that after the guy grabbed the lantana that he appeared to stretch it to see how firm it was.
I believe poster Megnut said lantana is sticky.
AB theorized that he used the lantana to place between the nest cam and bracket to help remove it.
 
  • #34,477
Yes, that is my point about LE and the internet searches -- they have stated nothing. So Fox News claiming the internet searches and their dates based on Google Trends is absurd. That is not how Google Trends calculates it's data.
Let's just hope they asked Google (or have a warrant) for specific data on searches as they already work with Google on the Nest video footage at this moment.
 
  • #34,478
In Mexico, they could simply ask NG "what meds do you take? And then just go buy them without a prescription." This would favor not spending too much time in the US before the border crossing (if that did happen) to ensure that she got the medications she needs.
Ya know, I had not thought of this before...about the ease of getting meds across the border compared to in the U.S. That idea would make it at least slightly-more plausible that she would have the meds she needs IF she is actually being held in Mexico.
 
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