• #40,481
Good work. It would indicate that NG is probably bleeding from the left side of her body/face, which would mean the perp is right handed.

Also, it's quite a significant amount of blood, but doesn't immediately look life-threatening.

Do you think it's blood from a bleeding/broken nose?
Yes, I thought it was quite a significant amount of blood also. Looking at the pattern of blood spots, I'm sure that there is also some on the mat. Then, there was some apparently on the walk all the way to the car, although from what has been posted here (I haven't seen it) the number of blood spots diminishes after they leave the porch. Of course, we don't know for sure, but I'm envisioning that the blood started inside the house and we're seeing the higher quantity of droplets at the porch as the perp likely slowed down while exiting the house - getting her through the door. If that is the case, that they started inside, it really is quite a bit of blood. If it's a simple nosebleed, it's a gusher! All this tells me that there was likely a fairly violent incident inside the home. I've come to the conclusion that she most likely was killed in the home or died soon after leaving it. Any way you slice it, very, very sad.
 
  • #40,482
  • #40,483
Going back to the footage from Camino Real...

To me another interesting part of that Camino Real video is the traffic pattern it establishes. There is clearly a northerly pattern early on that shifts to a decidedly southerly pattern towards 4-6 AM. This makes sense: northerly pattern would be people coming home from a Saturday night out from a main road to the south. Southerly pattern would be the AM commute traffic starting to head south from the neighborhood to the main traffic arteries.

Here are the camera hits:

0039: heading N
0046: N
231: N
236: S
327: N
345: N
407: S
449: N
451: N
513: S
555: S
603: S

Between 0039 and 400 AM 6 vehicles went by. 5 were headed north. Only 1 headed south. And it is the 236 hit.

If you want to extend that out, from 0039 until 500AM, 9 cars went by and only 2 were headed south. After 500AM all 3 cars headed south.

This correlation is possibly significant. Not only do you have a vehicle that seems to go against the established pattern. It also goes by at the exact time that a vehicle leaving Nancy's house and following the route I laid out previously would be going by this location.

The media framing of "a dozen vehicles" and LE summarily dismissing this (before later heading to the location to check it out) is a bit frustrating, honestly. The "dozen vehicles" don't matter. The 236 AM vehicle is the only one that matters. The next car to go by after 236 isn't until 327, almost an entire hour later. This isn't a frequented route. And nothing from then on in the evening is likely to have any significance at all to this investigation.

If the car went by went by at 240. Ok, maybe something to look at but less compelling. Anytime before 235, probably too early to be the perp.

But this is literally perfect timing. It's not 237 or 235. It's right on. You don't even need to twist it to fit.

One last point that comes to mind: what about the way to Nancy's?

Well, I would imagine the perp would take a different route there, knowing they could be caught on camera at some point along the way. You wouldn't want to be caught both coming and going, because then your vehicle is seen entering the area in the right timeframe and also leaving. Many entered. Many left. Very few entered at just the right time AND left at just the right time. Maybe only 1 or 2.

By taking a different route in and out you do increase the chances someone sees your vehicle on camera, but the tradeoff is that you only go each place once. In any neighborhood you see the same cars over and over, so one that goes one way then another and in the target time zone is going to be far more suspicious than one that just goes through once.
I agree with your reasoning that the perp(s) would be wise to enter and exit by different routes. but if they happened to take the same route, it could serendipitously help support your theory. do either of the earlier northbound hits look like possibly the same car?
 
  • #40,484
Yes, I thought it was quite a significant amount of blood also. Looking at the pattern of blood spots, I'm sure that there is also some on the mat. Then, there was some apparently on the walk all the way to the car, although from what has been posted here (I haven't seen it) the number of blood spots diminishes after they leave the porch. Of course, we don't know for sure, but I'm envisioning that the blood started inside the house and we're seeing the higher quantity of droplets at the porch as the perp likely slowed down while exiting the house - getting her through the door. If that is the case, that they started inside, it really is quite a bit of blood. If it's a simple nosebleed, it's a gusher! All this tells me that there was likely a fairly violent incident inside the home. I've come to the conclusion that she most likely was killed in the home or died soon after leaving it. Any way you slice it, very, very sad.
Just to add, I wonder if she was on some medication like blood thinners that would make the blood situation look worse.

Although losing any blood at that age is bad.
 
  • #40,485
Good work. It would indicate that NG is probably bleeding from the left side of her body/face, which would mean the perp is right handed.

Also, it's quite a significant amount of blood, but doesn't immediately look life-threatening.

Do you think it's blood from a bleeding/broken nose?
I really have no idea. The 'crown' of spatter caused by blood hitting blood seems to be roughly 12" in radius, at least in some parts, so maybe a height determination can come from that. Seems like it could be fairly high up on the body, just by imagining it. I think a more reliable way to measure height is through measuring the droplets themselves, but I don't feel like we have precise enough images of the scene to determine that. It's down to the millimeter. You can be LE knows, though!
 
  • #40,486
THANK YOU so much for finding and posting this. I'm a local who has been intermittently lurking here since the first week of the case and all the "Tucson is shockingly dark and scary" comments have been making me a little nuts (and more than a little sad). One of the many, many things I love about Tucson is that its a dark sky city, but I've never even been really aware of a specific "ordinance" because it simply isn't true that, as one person said here, the government dictates that people can't have lights outside their houses. I haven't lived anywhere here where people don't have lights at least outside their front doors if not other doors, plus motion-detector lights and so on. We have lights outside all our doors on our patios, under awnings, as well as solar pathway lights that shine down on the pathway. We also have down-facing streetlights, but we live near downtown, not in the outskirts. My parents live in a different area of the Catalina Foothills and have plenty of light close to the house.

Perhaps more importantly, I've lived in some so-called sketchy areas of town and our current neighborhood has much more crime than the foothills, but I've never felt like Tucson in general is a scary place to live. To be fair, I also wouldn't go out and walk my neighborhood alone at night ...

So thank you for finding the facts, here. Plus, I learned a couple of things. I didn't know amber lighting was better, plus now I know the neighbor across the street with the very bright light that shines across into our yard is probably not supposed to do that. 😄
Thank you for giving us more interesting context!

I think everyone is baffled that (it seems like) LE has majorly struggled with gaining footage of the vehicle and isn't ultra certain about the exact vehicle/its path. And so the explanation they've put forward is "It's way too dark! No cameras would pick him up!" And it's like ???? I was baffled by that but I'm not from Tucson, so I didn't know how true it was, but in my experience cameras can still pick up vehicles even when it's dark. The houses aren't *that* far back from the road in NG's neighborhood.

Even if the footage from yesterday wasn't the kidnapper's vehicle, it does at least show that cameras *are* able to pick up cars passing late at night in the general neighborhood, and you can make out the general size and potential models/colors of the cars passing.

I just hope people keep submitting footage because this person wasn't a ghost, they had to get to (and leave) her house somehow.
 
  • #40,487
That's right. Not all people on a fixed budget can afford special lighting that adheres to all their dark sky guidelines so I imagine some just don't have lights at all. I guess my point is not all people have the same needs or resources yet government seems to find a way to force everyone in the same square box. They should stay out of it entirely.
That's a fair concern, but again, I don't think people here ever give a thought to needing to go spend a lot of money on "special" lighting or even give a thought to needing to comply with a light ordinance. My neighborhood is low-income and I'd venture everyone here has some sort of front-door lighting at minimum. I think it's important to clarify that this isn't a sternly enforced, prohibitive thing that prevents reasonable safety lighting at people's homes. The wider application of particular types of lighting to city-installed lighting and commercial lighting is probably much more a focus of these rules.
 
  • #40,488
I saw somebody say that it's very likely a nose bleed and that the area with most spatter looks consistent with her coughing at that point which would create a similar pattern.

JMO
Wouldn't a cough spray the blood out in a more linear way, unless her mouth was parallel with the floor? The spatter seems to radiate from a central location. I'm just having a hard time imagining the cough, but what the heck do I know?
 
  • #40,489
A Kia Soul is not the vehicle I'd associate with an abduction, possible kidnapping or murder.
 
  • #40,490
Just to add, I wonder if she was on some medication like blood thinners that would make the blood situation look worse.

Although losing any blood at that age is bad.
Many people with pacemakers are on blood thinners to prevent the risk of a stroke. People with pacemakers who aren't at risk for a stroke don't take blood thinners. JMO
 
  • #40,491
According to AB's source, yes. They also told AB that the blood patterns were the same inside as the ones outside. Blood drops falling from a height.
The source didn't tell her where in the house the blood was found though.
Thank you so much!
 
  • #40,492
Nice work! I hadn’t noticed while studying the photos and videos, but the view from this perspective gives me the immediate impression that she was being carried out rather than walking. I suppose she could have been ushered out alongside the abductor, but the doorframe itself acts as a bottleneck to any foot traffic and I’d expect that a blood trail would be more central - even if it was coming from her left extremity.
MOO
Yeah, the blood is quite scattershot on the porch itself. IIRC, it's a bit more spaced out and linear on the pavement, but it's so hard to see from the video that's available.

What's surprising to me is the seeming lack of shoeprints in the blood considering the fairly wide blood pattern. I think there might be one in the tile 2 rows from right and 3 rows down from the house, but I'm not sure.
 
  • #40,493
Thank you for giving us more interesting context!

I think everyone is baffled that (it seems like) LE has majorly struggled with gaining footage of the vehicle and isn't ultra certain about the exact vehicle/its path. And so the explanation they've put forward is "It's way too dark! No cameras would pick him up!" And it's like ???? I was baffled by that but I'm not from Tucson, so I didn't know how true it was, but in my experience cameras can still pick up vehicles even when it's dark. The houses aren't *that* far back from the road in NG's neighborhood.

Even if the footage from yesterday wasn't the kidnapper's vehicle, it does at least show that cameras *are* able to pick up cars passing late at night in the general neighborhood, and you can make out the general size and potential models/colors of the cars passing.

I just hope people keep submitting footage because this person wasn't a ghost, they had to get to (and leave) her house somehow.
I think the footage issue, particularly in NG's neighborhood, has more to do with the space around houses on each lot, the fact that houses are set back far from the road, the orientation of houses, rising and falling areas in the landscape, the thicker desert vegetation, and so on. In the foothills area where my parents live, the houses are also on large lots and often set back from the road, but it seems like they're more neatly lined up somehow so that I'd guess a lot of front-door cameras would catch passing traffic. EBM: Also, for instance, (as far as I can tell) the curved drive in front of NG's house means that the front door area is more obscured from the road than it might be if there was a straight driveway that ended relatively close to the front door. There's heavier vegetation between the front door and the street.
 
  • #40,494
Just to add, I wonder if she was on some medication like blood thinners that would make the blood situation look worse.

Although losing any blood at that age is bad.
I don't think we've ever seen a list of her current medications, but many patients on pacemakers are on blood thinners. So, good catch. Maybe that minimizes the possibility of a big, violent incident.

EBM: Sorry folks. Hard time keeping up with thread. I'll read to the end before I post next time!
 
  • #40,495

I live in the woods with no street lighting but the houses here have ample lighting. What stood out to me in NG area was that the immediate areas around houses and those neighborhoods were dark.

Here are the outdoor lighting codes for Pima:

View attachment 648836
That does look super dark, darker than I'd expect the neighborhood streets to look there. I wonder, though, if that might be because residents there don't worry as much about lighting outside their houses, given how safe many of them *did* consider that neighborhood? There aren't street lights on those roads, but there could certainly be more lighting from house to house.
 
  • #40,496
I got tired of rewinding the BE video, so I tried my hand at very roughly mapping out the blood spots on the porch. I'm not sure how much use this is, and this kind of thing is not my strong suit at all, but I figured I'd post it here.

View attachment 648816
The slightly lighter red blob represents the larger blood pool area, and the roughly circular shape is the approximate extend of the blood spatter. Again, all very, very rough. The video also doesn't show much of the porch in detail, so who knows what's missing.

Although I can't see blood on the doormat (can you?), it looks like the spatter is maybe slightly curtailed on that side, which could indicate either Nancy of the suspect were standing there, preventing the spatter from reaching as far on that side. Just a guess.

Please let me know if you see any errors or misses.
Excellent job!!
 
  • #40,497
I saw somebody say that it's very likely a nose bleed and that the area with most spatter looks consistent with her coughing at that point which would create a similar pattern.

JMO
Thinking about this more. Could the blood pattern shown in the bottom right corner of the image below be a partial handprint? Maybe pinky and ring fingers on Nancy's right hand and the side of her palm? If so, she could've been on hands and knees here, and coughing blood straight down.

Screenshot 2026-02-27 at 14.19.45.webp

What's interesting is that immediately adjacent to those print marks (whatever they are), there are intact blood drops. So, if the pattern was caused by a hand or a shoe or whatever, those nearby drops would've been deposited after that print was left.

I can almost imagine two separate blood trails on the porch, which could explain why the blood is so all over the place and not just one dripping line from the door to the driveway. Could Nancy have entered and exited the porch from the pavement and not via the front door?

ETA: Perhaps her left hand was placed on the tile just off the mat (3rd column from right, 2nd row from door), and that's why the spatter doesn't appear in that spot, although you'd think it would.
 
Last edited:
  • #40,498
I agree with your reasoning that the perp(s) would be wise to enter and exit by different routes. but if they happened to take the same route, it could serendipitously help support your theory. do either of the earlier northbound hits look like possibly the same car?

It's hard to tell, but neither previous N bound car looks like the southbound 236 AM car to me. I haven't been able to sit down and really analyze that footage though. It's a pain to pause the Fox video, at least on my computer.

You're right: if one of the N bound cars filmed between midnight and 1 AM going north was the same vehicle that could get quite interesting. I would be surprised if they took a back way in though. They hadn't committed a crime yet, so no need.

I would imagine that they would have to eventually utilize a main road, but the idea would be for that to happen as far away from the crime scene as possible. Just looking at the map, I could see almost limitless ways to get many miles before you had to commit to a main route.

Perps could afford to take a roundabout way, because they would likely assume that they had until the next morning before anyone would notice Nancy missing, at the earliest. It would be around 2-3AM so they must have assumed they had until 7 or 8 AM, at a minimum, before someone called, texted, or visited Nancy. That's a solid 4-5 hour head start, and probably more.
 
  • #40,499
That does look super dark, darker than I'd expect the neighborhood streets to look there. I wonder, though, if that might be because residents there don't worry as much about lighting outside their houses, given how safe many of them *did* consider that neighborhood? There aren't street lights on those roads, but there could certainly be more lighting from house to house.
The lighting codes of that area I posted prohibit certain lumens and have specific code about where the lights can be pointed etc. You can read it all including prohibitions and exclusions in the Pima code link. Marana and Oro Valley have their own codes.


I live in a similar neighborhood layout with no street lights, though larger size properties and in the woods, but we have LED spotlights on poles and the house and adjunct structures (mine are on RF switches and integrated w security system via wifi. police recommended) and many more lights around the immediate houses and driveways (also helps w/ cameras, no IR night light recording like seen in the Nest cam). We have many other codes as w/ any municipality (bamboo is banned here for instance) but nothing in town code about lighting like that.

My total lighting output would be prohibited by Pima county code but it greatly helps here (w/ wildlife too).

And btw I want to stress the local precinct crime unit encouraged the lighting set up as such, when we had a string of burglaries in the neighborhood (older people, affluent) and the burglars crept up in the dark in each case.
 
  • #40,500
Yeah, the blood is quite scattershot on the porch itself. IIRC, it's a bit more spaced out and linear on the pavement, but it's so hard to see from the video that's available.

What's surprising to me is the seeming lack of shoeprints in the blood considering the fairly wide blood pattern. I think there might be one in the tile 2 rows from right and 3 rows down from the house, but I'm not sure.
I keep wondering if the front walkway to the driveway was staged. Seems likely that 2 people may have carried her. Since there was blood in the house, they seemed to have avoided getting blood on their shoes, stepping in her blood or leaving a trail of blood from their shoes. JMO
 
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