Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[wibbleflea]

This guy is no bumbling got lucky idiot.

Agreed – strong possibility that he's quite the planner. It's hard to eliminate the effect of luck, but I don't agree with the many former FBI agents I've heard on podcasts saying that the perp was incompetent or an idiot, based on things like the way the gun was carried or his actions on the doorbell footage. The gun had to scare and intimidate an 84yo woman (presumably unarmed), not an FBI agent or sheriff's deputy, and I'm sure it succeeded.

He could be a fool who got lucky, or someone who thought things through carefully. It seems wrong to rule out either. I lean toward the latter.

 

[Skully7100]

Agreed – strong possibility that he's quite the planner. It's hard to eliminate the effect of luck, but I don't agree with the many former FBI agents I've heard on podcasts saying that the perp was incompetent or an idiot, based on things like the way the gun was carried or his actions on the doorbell footage. The gun had to scare and intimidate an 84yo woman (presumably unarmed), not an FBI agent or sheriff's deputy, and I'm sure it succeeded.

He could be a fool who got lucky, or someone who thought things through carefully. It seems wrong to rule out either. I lean toward the latter.

They might be calling him an idiot to bait him to screw up and be found.

 

[Sarahlou]

I wonder if he could be a serial or if this was his first rodeo?

I don't know about serial killer, but to me it's hard to imagine this was his first time attacking a woman. It seems too extreme to go from nothing to this.

 

[emigrate]

First rodeo, imo. . He's possibly a shrinking violet, unobtrusive, attachment issues..a loner..you know the type...Someone's cousin who always shows up at family events by himself. That getup he was wearing was an expression of his alter ego. JMO

I hope you are right, I hate to see him do it again because he, so far, seemingly, has gotten away with this. A shrinking violet seeing how much pain he caused and got away with and seeing an entire city afraid of him could feed his needs so much he would do it again? The rush, the fear he is causing maybe the excitement is worth the risk to this perp. BTK was the start of my interest in this kind of thing. He not only enjoyed the crimes but seemed offended he wasn't being taken serious. I hope this guy doesn't "need another fix".

 

[Bruxer]

I think in the end we will find out if wasn't some sophisticated criminal or someone who so carefully planned not to leave their DNA. It will be someone who just got lucky. It could be someone who was on drugs or drunk-- someone with a huge substance abuse problem who has obliterated the logical parts of their brain. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being someone like that guy who was driving by last night-- the one who was arrested in front of her house... I don't think it's him but it could be someone like him-- a totally random person who no one is suspecting. And the ransom notes were just another opportunist not involved in the kidnapping.

I think we also forget that they can't swab every single surface in the house for DNA and microscopically go over the crime scene and find a hair that was left behind... it is likely that this suspect did leave some minute traces of himself behind but that it wasn't discovered.

I find it interesting, IF it is just one person, that they wore essentially the same outfit both times. That would indicate that they had to take it on and off and thus, it was probably not DNA free. Which IMO indicates that he isn't sophisticated.

 

[sds71]

Savannah Guthrie posted a new video to Instagram. "Someone out there knows something that can bring her home. Somebody knows. We are begging you to please come forward now."Savannah says people can report anonymous tips and is asking people to call the tip line.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027433705288134881

 

[emigrate]

I think in the end we will find out if wasn't some sophisticated criminal or someone who so carefully planned not to leave their DNA. It will be someone who just got lucky. It could be someone who was on drugs or drunk-- someone with a huge substance abuse problem who has obliterated the logical parts of their brain. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being someone like that guy who was driving by last night-- the one who was arrested in front of her house... I don't think it's him but it could be someone like him-- a totally random person who no one is suspecting. And the ransom notes were just another opportunist not involved in the kidnapping.

I think we also forget that they can't swab every single surface in the house for DNA and microscopically go over the crime scene and find a hair that was left behind... it is likely that this suspect did leave some minute traces of himself behind but that it wasn't discovered.

Could anyone make out what the writing said on the windshield of that guys blue vehicle it is bugging me.

 

[Mind your biscuits]

Residents can have outdoor lighting as long as it is in code.

...
Turn on outside lights Only When Needed, use timers and motion sensors.

Keep ALL Outdoor lights shining Downward, no light above the horizontal.

Use the Right Amount of light for the task at hand, more is not better.

Use light sources (lamps) under 3,500K (warmer colors) for ALL outside lights
...
Southern Arizona Chapter Of The International DarkSky Association – "Light Pollution" – The Only Pollution that Costs More to Perpetuate than to Eliminate!

https://content.civicplus.com/api/a...-tucson-pima-county-outdoor-lighting-code.pdf

Basically codes don’t allow light to escape in to the sky and no light trespass on to neighboring properties.
The warmer lighting is more effective for safety since it provides enhanced contrast and depth perception.

...
Amber LED lighting, with color temperatures typically around 1800K to 2200K, offers an excellent solution for exterior applications.

• Enhanced Visibility and Safety: Contrary to popular belief, warmer lighting can actually improve visibility (when compared to cooler color temperatures) by reducing the possibility of glare. The softer illumination provided by warmer color temperatures, especially amber LEDs, enhances contrast and depth perception, making outdoor spaces safer and more comfortable.
• ...

Warmer Lights, Better Nights - Barton Associates, Inc. - Consulting Engineers




all imo

I learn something new every day on here. Light trespassing is a thing?

 

[EyeCandy]

This may have already been covered as I haven’t had time to go through the threads this morning and only have a minute atm, apologies if so.

But I think that car in the video is a Lexus RX. I’m like 75% sure. If you’ve never seen one before look it up - I’d post a picture if I had more time, sorry again.

I have a Lexus RX tail lights are not like that Cadillac Escalade and some newer Tahoes seem to have those huge lights that go vertical

 

[templeton]

Is what looks like a white car in the new video footage in Nancy’s neighborhood, caught on camera going to her house and away from her house?

 

[SlimPickens]

Agreed – strong possibility that he's quite the planner. It's hard to eliminate the effect of luck, but I don't agree with the many former FBI agents I've heard on podcasts saying that the perp was incompetent or an idiot, based on things like the way the gun was carried or his actions on the doorbell footage. The gun had to scare and intimidate an 84yo woman (presumably unarmed), not an FBI agent or sheriff's deputy, and I'm sure it succeeded.

Agree. It could be a concerted effort to try to bruise his ego to draw him back out, but that would be both idiotic and dangerous, IMO. What if his idea of rebuffing them is to do it again?

I tend to think it is due more to their own egos and perhaps even overestimating their own abilities, and having to reconcile that their former colleagues at this top-of-the-food-chain-agency can't seem to get a handle on this guy (at least publicly and to their knowledge).

JMO.

 

[SMK777]

I don't know about serial killer, but to me it's hard to imagine this was his first time attacking a woman. It seems too extreme to go from nothing to this.

True.
Unless harming/taking her was completely unexpected, and was done in a panic.
Probably not likely, though.

 

[The Missing Canoe]

BBM I absolutely agree. Reading in People that it is rumored that SG will be returning to work soon is what I predicted the last couple of days . This could actually lure him out. He may become obvious. His grab to be noticed by and total domination of SG has failed. What next? His 4 weeks of terror and publicity has ended. This is when his obsession with SG will be seen by others in his circle. He has no where else to go with his quest to capture SG's attention. If my stalker exists, he will only then start making mistakes. He is smart and mindful and twisted. He is frustrated now. All this plotting and planning and his desires are still not satisfied. IF SG does return to work soon, he will surface again in an unmistakable way. Le might be laying a trap if they suspect this is a stalker. In or near the house? At SG's job? Within her social media posts? He's going to slip up when she returns to work. This isnt over for him. It will just take on a new form and he WILL get caught. JMO

If this is true, I can’t imagine the mental and emotional gymnastics SG would need to go through to perform on camera. Because it wouldn’t be simply a return to work out of choice or a need for the distraction, but a role with a clear and essential mandate.

 

[Cats Against Crime]

Going back to the footage from Camino Real...

To me another interesting part of that Camino Real video is the traffic pattern it establishes. There is clearly a northerly pattern early on that shifts to a decidedly southerly pattern towards 4-6 AM. This makes sense: northerly pattern would be people coming home from a Saturday night out from a main road to the south. Southerly pattern would be the AM commute traffic starting to head south from the neighborhood to the main traffic arteries.

Here are the camera hits:

0039: heading N
0046: N
231: N
236: S
327: N
345: N
407: S
449: N
451: N
513: S
555: S
603: S

Between 0039 and 400 AM 6 vehicles went by. 5 were headed north. Only 1 headed south. And it is the 236 hit.

If you want to extend that out, from 0039 until 500AM, 9 cars went by and only 2 were headed south. After 500AM all 3 cars headed south.

This correlation is possibly significant. Not only do you have a vehicle that seems to go against the established pattern. It also goes by at the exact time that a vehicle leaving Nancy's house and following the route I laid out previously would be going by this location.

The media framing of "a dozen vehicles" and LE summarily dismissing this (before later heading to the location to check it out) is a bit frustrating, honestly. The "dozen vehicles" don't matter. The 236 AM vehicle is the only one that matters. The next car to go by after 236 isn't until 327, almost an entire hour later. This isn't a frequented route. And nothing from then on in the evening is likely to have any significance at all to this investigation.

If the car went by went by at 240. Ok, maybe something to look at but less compelling. Anytime before 235, probably too early to be the perp.

But this is literally perfect timing. It's not 237 or 235. It's right on. You don't even need to twist it to fit.

One last point that comes to mind: what about the way to Nancy's?

Well, I would imagine the perp would take a different route there, knowing they could be caught on camera at some point along the way. You wouldn't want to be caught both coming and going, because then your vehicle is seen entering the area in the right timeframe and also leaving. Many entered. Many left. Very few entered at just the right time AND left at just the right time. Maybe only 1 or 2.

By taking a different route in and out you do increase the chances someone sees your vehicle on camera, but the tradeoff is that you only go each place once. In any neighborhood you see the same cars over and over, so one that goes one way then another and in the target time zone is going to be far more suspicious than one that just goes through once.

 

[EyeCandy]

so LE went to look at the camera of the last car sightings? The vehicle going South when most all others were North and the timestamp of near Nancy being gone?

 

[minazoe]

this has a good breakdown of the time and the Kia Soul

 

[warp3dwing]

I got tired of rewinding the BE video, so I tried my hand at very roughly mapping out the blood spots on the porch. I'm not sure how much use this is, and this kind of thing is not my strong suit at all, but I figured I'd post it here.


The slightly lighter red blob represents the larger blood pool area, and the roughly circular shape is the approximate extend of the blood spatter. Again, all very, very rough. The video also doesn't show much of the porch in detail, so who knows what's missing.

Although I can't see blood on the doormat (can you?), it looks like the spatter is maybe slightly curtailed on that side, which could indicate either Nancy of the suspect were standing there, preventing the spatter from reaching as far on that side. Just a guess.

Please let me know if you see any errors or misses.

 

[templeton]

LINK TO VIDEO. PLEASE ADD LINKS TO ANY PICTURES YOU POST

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027167218812035457

 

[templeton]

View attachment 648818

Well they didn’t post the way I intended. It looks like it’s going two different ways on the videos I saw

 

[Jade]

I learn something new every day on here. Light trespassing is a thing?

Yes! My neighbors have a powerful double flood light, fortunately motion sensitive not on all night, and it reaches all the way over to our side porch. I hate it!

Another neighbor had flood lights they left on day and night on their newly built house and it pointed across their lawn, not on to their lawn, but up in the air right in to our upstairs porch. Luckily it burned out and they never replaced it.

Commercial light trespasses the worst, imo.

You can’t get lost in the woods or fields around here even though it is rural and agriculture lands all you have to do is get to the nearest rise wait until dark then follow the glow from one of the Walmart’s to civilization.

all imo


Please remember you can't discuss blurred posts