• #41,341
I've come to realize this case is far more complex that it originally appeared to be. We saw what appeared to be a novice Perp in his Wmart getup with what appears to be a gun worn in a manner that could have ended the night very differently had he sneezed.

While I certainly hope I'm wrong, given the blood droplets and the amount of them, I sadly speculate that NG was murdered, and died at her home the night she disappeared. While we might not be privy to this information, we aren't aware of any proof of life that was ever given after she disappeared. I speculate that is because NG was no longer amongst the living to do so.

I know very little about SG, her morning show, or her journalistic history. When doing a quick search, I found she has conducted inverviews with some high profile individuals regarding some highly controversial matters. Sadly, I do speculate that whatever happed to NG was in direct retaliation to some perceived grievance against her high profile daughter. That being said, I think there is much more to this than will ever be revealed to the general public. Stating bluntly, I think NG was collateral damage, and the Perps have been tormenting and punishing SG ever since N disappeared. Punishing SG, issuing a terrifying warning?

This is a horrid nightmare that I freely admit goes far beyond my sleuthing skills.
Prayers for all the innocent affected.

Amateur opinion and speculation
Good point re SG conducting some high profile individuals regarding some highly controversail subjects.

And SG's close relationship with her mother was obvious to The Today Show viewers.

A sick and disturbed person who was interested in tormenting and punishing SG could easily come to the conclusion that the best way to do that would be to hurt or kill her mother.

JMO
 
  • #41,342
The car thing doesn't necessarily mean anything, I don't think Gannon's family ever got his Nintendo Switch back from LE even though it had nothing to do with his killing.

Sometimes things just go into the black hole of an investigation and take forever, or never emerge. And this is still an active investigation without a publicly identified suspect. They're going to hang on to things for as long as they can until they're absolutely of no importance to any case they want to build.

MOO
But to keep a car for this length of time I think does mean something. Especially a car, which is no small item and a needed everyday one imo.
 
  • #41,343
But to keep a car for this length of time I think does mean something. Especially a car, which is no small item and a needed everyday one imo.
Someone further up the thread suggested none of the family cars had been released yet. That means no one family member is being singled out. They just haven't released the cars.

MOO
 
  • #41,344
I haven't seen an answer to my question about the Huffpost as a source, but I'm going to take a gamble. We had been discussing whether there was forced entry and if there was any blood found in the house, this article says that it was forced entry and there was blood in the house. It's dated very early on, February 3rd. Please flag my post if this is not a legitimate source to be sharing.

"Investigators found blood and signs of forced entry in the home of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday."

"Sources who were not authorized to discuss the case told the Times that blood was found inside the house, but it was not determined where it came from. Guthrie’s wallet, cell phone and car were still there as well."

 
  • #41,345
Unless they saw blood in the house and signs of some kind of struggle...
Reported by Banfield, though we haven’t heard anything official.

A rear door wide open, NG’s car in the garage, blood inside the house, iPhone and Apple Watch both left behind, no sign of NG.

If AG & TC entered through the garage (leaving the 11:56 time stamp) and saw all that, it makes sense to call LE just minutes later, even without seeing the blood on the front porch.
 
  • #41,346
I go back and forth. The more I look into this the more I start to think that this was one individual and he is sort of going of the playbook of EARONS. There are a lot of similarities. Starting with the ski mask, extra clothing covering whole body, location choice, recon, mouth flashlight etc... He may not be doing it for the same reason, but maybe he was taking the playbook of one of the most successful ever to never get recognized. Maybe NG was an easy 1st target because of her age, and with her house set back so far and all of the homes being somewhat off the main road. But then I think, why would he go after somebody who is the mother of a celebrity if you are trying to be so safe and covering all your bases like that? You would have to know that it would get media attention, I don't think one would imagine it would get the amount that it has received, but you must be smart enough to know it would garner more than you would want. SO that brings me back to Nancy was a deliberate target. So like I said, I go back and forth.
 
  • #41,347
I haven't seen an answer to my question about the Huffpost as a source, but I'm going to take a gamble. We had been discussing whether there was forced entry and if there was any blood found in the house, this article says that it was forced entry and there was blood in the house. It's dated very early on, February 3rd. Please flag my post if this is not a legitimate source to be sharing.

"Investigators found blood and signs of forced entry in the home of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday."

"Sources who were not authorized to discuss the case told the Times that blood was found inside the house, but it was not determined where it came from. Guthrie’s wallet, cell phone and car were still there as well."

What do the mean when they say it was not determined where the blood came from? Does that mean from where Nancy was bleeding?
 
  • #41,348
Obvious not good at the scene of the crime, but if there was a plan to do something afterward in the desert terrain, where moon is the only light you have, the more light the better. There is baby cactus plants everywhere, wildlife, scorpions.
Snipped by me for emphasis:

Very good thinking!
 
  • #41,349
I haven't seen an answer to my question about the Huffpost as a source, but I'm going to take a gamble. We had been discussing whether there was forced entry and if there was any blood found in the house, this article says that it was forced entry and there was blood in the house. It's dated very early on, February 3rd. Please flag my post if this is not a legitimate source to be sharing.

"Investigators found blood and signs of forced entry in the home of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday."

"Sources who were not authorized to discuss the case told the Times that blood was found inside the house, but it was not determined where it came from. Guthrie’s wallet, cell phone and car were still there as well."

On the first page of this thread on Feb 2nd, the following article was posted about the state of NG's home.

Per this article, the Pima County Sheriff's Office noted on their briefing today that, "disturbing or concerning circumstances were found at the home, prompting homicide detectives to assist in the investigation."

www.tmz.com

'TODAY' Anchor Savannah Guthrie’s Mom Missing

Authorities in Arizona are searching for Nancy Guthrie, the mother of 'TODAY' anchor Savannah Guthrie, who was reported missing under what authorities are calling concerning circumstances.
www.tmz.com
www.tmz.com
 
  • #41,350
One would think that B or C would still be recognized by someone considering there isn't a person in the country that hasn't seen that video. It's getting so popular that I imagine memes will be made with it soon.

A is one that sticks out to me, and every day that passes makes the case stronger for it. And if it was a for hire kind of thing, whomever did the hiring probably hired from outside of the country.

Another possibility that keeps coming back to me is those online nihilistic anarchist thrill/kill cults who initiate members by convincing them to do things like this. And they continually escalate things to encourage higher status within that community. These types of folks would definitely have the tech prowess to not be tracked online (or elsewhere), and creating a digitally anonymous presence would likely be a piece of cake. These are 'dark web' types.

JMO.

As a mild counterpoint: ambiguous video footage rarely leads to the identity of the perp from the public.

Did anyone call in McKee after he was shown walking in that alley? LE had unreleased footage of him walking to his own car (!) but I don’t think the public footage helped.

The case of the Shermans (Toronto, 2017) has public footage of the walking man, with a distinctive gait – no ID.

Liz Barraza: very bad footage, admittedly, but both the perp and the car are on video, and the car’s make and specific model were identified. The case remains unsolved.

Missy Bevers: a lot of video of the killer, almost performing for the camera. No ID.

Ambiguous video ends up being hard. There are exceptions, I’m sure.
 
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  • #41,351
As a mild counterpoint, ambiguous video footage rarely leads to the identity of the perp from the public.

Did anyone call in McKee after he was shown walking in that alley? LE had unreleased footage of him walking to his own car (!) but I don’t think the public footage helped.

The case of the Shermans (Toronto, 2017) has public footage of the walking man, with a distinctive gait – no ID.

Liz Barraza: very bad footage, admittedly, but both the perp and the car are on video, and the car’s make and specific model were identified. The case remains unsolved.

Missy Bevers: a lot of video of the killer, almost performing for the camera. No ID.

Ambiguous video ends up being hard. There are exceptions, I’m sure.
Add to all of the above the Bridge Guy footage in the Delphi, Indiana murders where the footage was clear, showed a distinctive gait, and had audio of his voice.

He lived and worked in town at a well frequented pharmacy and in 5 years --video brought not a single hit from the public. Zero. Zip.
 
  • #41,352
As a mild counterpoint, ambiguous video footage rarely leads to the identity of the perp from the public.

Did anyone call in McKee after he was shown walking in that alley? LE had unreleased footage of him walking to his own car (!) but I don’t think the public footage helped.

The case of the Shermans (Toronto, 2017) has public footage of the walking man, with a distinctive gait – no ID.

Liz Barraza: very bad footage, admittedly, but both the perp and the car are on video, and the car’s make and specific model were identified. The case remains unsolved.

Missy Bevers: a lot of video of the killer, almost performing for the camera. No ID.

Ambiguous video ends up being hard. There are exceptions, I’m sure.
I’m not familiar with all those, but I am Liz Barraza and interestingly my belief is the perp tried to conceal identify as well by dressing as a female when male. (Not proven or stated, but a theory by many) .

I’d encourage people to just think of body language - height- with this perp. Ignore the facial and consider if you know someone that fits height, motions, walk as this porch guy.
 
  • #41,353
I am not sure where to put this post. I think it doesn't matter how many masks the perp is wearing . I DO THINK MULTIPLE. That's as much for prevention of shedding DNA as it is for facial distortion and intimidation. So, what are we left with? Eyes and mouth.
Just eyes, possibly. Maybe not even eyebrows. This post shows an example of a thin mask that covers the mouth.

That could be what we’re seeing – fake mouth, fake moustache, fake lips, fake teeth. Flashlight held in mouth, underneath the mask.

We never see the flashlight. We only see the light it emits. It could be shining through a thin mask. When it’s turned off, we see the fake facial details again.
 
  • #41,354
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when he did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen onto that segment, it isn't likely that he would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from whence?

JMO.
 
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  • #41,355
As a mild counterpoint: ambiguous video footage rarely leads to the identity of the perp from the public.

Did anyone call in McKee after he was shown walking in that alley? LE had unreleased footage of him walking to his own car (!) but I don’t think the public footage helped.

The case of the Shermans (Toronto, 2017) has public footage of the walking man, with a distinctive gait – no ID.

Liz Barraza: very bad footage, admittedly, but both the perp and the car are on video, and the car’s make and specific model were identified. The case remains unsolved.

Missy Bevers: a lot of video of the killer, almost performing for the camera. No ID.

Ambiguous video ends up being hard. There are exceptions, I’m sure.

Certainly valid and true, but none of those had the kinds of eyes that this video has on it. This is nationwide. Worldwide in some respects. You're correct in that some sleuth from the general public isn't likely to ID this perpetrator, but someone who knows him has a far greater chance at seeing this video than even the locals had at seeing the ones you listed. This case has vast public interest, and a 1.1 million dollar incentive to boot.

JMO.
 
  • #41,356
I imagine that they didn't even realize it was a full moon. Since they smashed the outdoor lights, it seems that they would have preferred to commit the crime when the moon wasn't full and they were so much more visible than on any other night.

JMO
It’s possible, but I lean the other way: the recon was done in lower light but the full moon helped the perp drive without headlights and to see what he was doing outside without bright flashlights.

The area inside the porch would have been very dark to the perp and that needed an occasional use of a tiny flashlight. We only see the porch area brightly on video because the camera is blasting out infrared, invisible to the perp but visible to the camera sensor.

Out in the open, moonlight would have been useful to eliminate the need for flashlights and headlights and remain undetected by home cameras on residential roads.
 
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  • #41,357
Certainly valid and true, but none of those had the kinds of eyes that this video has on it. This is nationwide. Worldwide in some respects. You're correct in that some sleuth from the general public isn't likely to ID this perpetrator, but someone who knows him has a far greater chance at seeing this video than even the locals had at seeing the ones you listed. This case has vast public interest, and a 1.1 million dollar incentive to boot.

JMO.
True, and if the perp has some background in crime, maybe a former associate could call in.

But people who know the perp may not recognise those eyes if the perp isn’t seen as the type. The Mangione case had massive publicity, and the photos were good enough to allow someone who didn’t know him to recognise him from a photograph, but I don’t think anyone who knew him had called in his name beforehand. And plenty of people knew him – he had friends and family. I think that’s significant.

This video isn’t good enough for someone who doesn’t know the perp to recognise him, so that avenue is out.
 
  • #41,358
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when either of them did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen on that segment, it isn't likely that they would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece and how? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from where?

JMO.
Women watch Savannah, and I suppose a smaller group of men. PG does not. But, it's impossible not to bring SG into the equation because she's the one person in the bunch that comes with risk.

This doesn't appear to be about collecting money so that means the kidnapping and murder were intended to harm SG and her family. PG could be hired from out of the area, and that would certainly explain why nobody recognizes him. This seems very personal and PG has always seemed out of place to me.
 
  • #41,359
I’m not familiar with all those, but I am Liz Barraza and interestingly my belief is the perp tried to conceal identify as well by dressing as a female when male. (Not proven or stated, but a theory by many) .

I’d encourage people to just think of body language - height- with this perp. Ignore the facial and consider if you know someone that fits height, motions, walk as this porch guy.
Well-said.
 
  • #41,360
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when he did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen onto that segment, it isn't likely that he would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from whence?

JMO.
IMHO, Anger and revenge. Look at SG's past. Ex something or other. Boyfriend, husband, friend (male or female) This was personal.
 
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