About the cameras.... if the doorbell camera was offline or disabled, it seems impossible for it to later transmit a movement notification unless it was back online temporarily. It's possible the notification was from a different camera, but any camera that was able to send a notification would have to be online and would send video to the cloud. I can't make sense of this discrepancy about the movement notification AFTER the camera was offline/disabled and the lack of any video recovery.
We have multiple cameras at our house from different off-brand companies. All of them use SD cards for recording because I refuse to pay for a subscription. The cameras still record when they are offline (as long as they have power), you just don't get any notifications and can't see the video until it is back online. If someone physically removed (or smashed) a camera, access to any video would be gone permanently (unless the SD card was found/recovered).
At any rate, if the camera was not disabled until 1:47 am, I assume that there would be video from all day Saturday, including any visitors as well as the family drop-off around 9:48 pm (if it was detected). If the drop-off was exclusively at the garage area perhaps it would not have been picked up by the doorbell camera but maybe by another camera (unless they were already disabled).
I feel that all the camera disabling makes it almost certain that the perp was someone close to NG because they knew how the cameras were set up, both the physical locations and the recording settings, etc. It just seems impossible that someone did all that without leaving a single second of video recordings on any camera.