AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

  • #13,981
I still don't believe the ransom notes are from the abductor. I was watching this case from the very beginning. There was no ransom note yet. ALL of the media people were saying "there's no way she could have wandered away. This must be a kidnapping of some sort." I think some people got into their head they could make money off of this and send in fake ransom notes and I imagine there have been multiple ransom notes. We already know one faker was arrested in California. It really seems the sheriff has been focused on kidnapping ever since the beginning, but I worry he relied on that theory too much. No cadaver dogs have been on the scene. It took them FOUR tries to find another camera on the roof. The sheriff's department put up and took down crime tape four times; should have kept it up continuously until they knew what actually happened and what they were looking for. I still think someone does not kidnap a 84 year old, physically fragile woman. IF this was done by kidnappers and were going to release her, they would have been sure she had her meds, had her cane, etc. Sometimes the answer is just the easiest one: family member. I don't think family member has made any ransom notes. And just because a ransomer "might" have some info only one who was in the house knew, well there have been dozens of people going in and out of her house since this happened. And all of the photographs might be downloaded somewhere and in offices where there are even more people looking at everything. Plus there are photos on Facebook of Nancy and possibly in her own home, so many ransomer saw something, like a picture on a wall in the background and pretended they saw it when they "kidnapped" her.
 
  • #13,982
yet sophisticated enough to not be caught yet. Every day that goes by and the FBI hasn't tracked them down, makes me lean more towards it being real. How frustrating this must be for the family.
Yes the perpetrator has yet to be apprehended, so there was a degree of competence and sophistication for sure.

Of course LE could have identified a prime suspect and trying to get the evidence to make a solid case.
 
  • #13,983
I still don't believe the ransom notes are from the abductor. I was watching this case from the very beginning. There was no ransom note yet. ALL of the media people were saying "there's no way she could have wandered away. This must be a kidnapping of some sort." I think some people got into their head they could make money off of this and send in fake ransom notes and I imagine there have been multiple ransom notes. We already know one faker was arrested in California. It really seems the sheriff has been focused on kidnapping ever since the beginning, but I worry he relied on that theory too much. No cadaver dogs have been on the scene. It took them FOUR tries to find another camera on the roof. The sheriff's department put up and took down crime tape four times; should have kept it up continuously until they knew what actually happened and what they were looking for. I still think someone does not kidnap a 84 year old, physically fragile woman. IF this was done by kidnappers and were going to release her, they would have been sure she had her meds, had her cane, etc. Sometimes the answer is just the easiest one: family member. I don't think family member has made any ransom notes. And just because a ransomer "might" have some info only one who was in the house knew, well there have been dozens of people going in and out of her house since this happened. And all of the photographs might be downloaded somewhere and in offices where there are even more people looking at everything. Plus there are photos on Facebook of Nancy and possibly in her own home, so many ransomer saw something, like a picture on a wall in the background and pretended they saw it when they "kidnapped" her.
I suppose if there are no developments today, the second deadline day, the notes will be dismissed as hoaxes?
 
  • #13,984
I think she was hurt in the house and walked out the front door because a car was in that front driveway. In this scenario, there are likely two people.

Of course, 10 seconds from now I'll have a different rendition and then discard both of them to shimmy back on the fence.
I am really trying hard to wrap my head around the blood. Bear with me, please. If she was hurt in the house and walked out to a waiting car, why is there only one area of blood? No trail. If she and "bad guy/s" walk out the front door, who locked the door behind them? Wasn't it said that her keys were found in the house along with wallet and phone?
 
  • #13,985
Now that you have me thinking on this, I also can't fathom it in reverse...if she was carried out of the house I guess she would have to have stood there bleeding maybe while someone was locking all 4 locks behind them?? I don't even know if the door was locked but if it was, who had the key? Hasn't it been said that her keys, wallet, phone etc were in the house? I just can't make the blood work for me. I appreciate the thought provoking discussion
What if the direction of bleeding was actually from the driveway towards the house? That would explain the increased blood by the front door as it was being unlocked. Exiting of the house could then have occurred from a car in the garage.
 
  • #13,986
Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

February 9, 2026

A former top FBI official has raised doubts about whether Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mom, Nancy, is really still alive and being held by kidnappers.

“I’m very skeptical of this,” former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker told Fox News’ “The Big Weekend Show” on Sunday. “Is this really a kidnapping? Does somebody really have her, and is she really alive?” he said of the fiends claiming to have her.

[…]

“If this was a kidnapping, it would be a very simple matter to authenticate and provide proof of life,” Swecker said, noting that no evidence had been “credibly authenticated at this point.” “You have to allow for the possibility that this was something more or something other than a kidnapping.”

Swecker also pointed to the ransom demands being reported, which skyrocketed from $1 million to a reported $6 million in a matter of days. “Remember now, it was 1 million not too long ago. All of a sudden, it’s 6 million,” Swecker told the outlet. “I really think there’s a third party here that’s just playing with them, opportunists who think they can exploit this situation.”
[…]

More at link:
Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

And as I keep sayin....

oh my.... we are opening one huge Pandora's Box....
 
  • #13,987
I am really trying hard to wrap my head around the blood. Bear with me, please. If she was hurt in the house and walked out to a waiting car, why is there only one area of blood? No trail. If she and "bad guy/s" walk out the front door, who locked the door behind them? Wasn't it said that her keys were found in the house along with wallet and phone?
Perhaps no trail of blood because someone handed her a towel for the purpose of not leaving a trail of blood.

But if I knew all the answers, I'd join the team of investigators and solve the case.

jmo
 
  • #13,988
Ok yes it just seems that many people here aren't really engaging the question in good faith of what's reasonable for NG based on what we know about her. Anecdotal stories about people in different circumstances (age, health, mobility, health issues) are, frankly, irrelevant. I've been speaking about what I know about NG based on reporting and on people I know who ARE in similar condition to her, and what would be considered reasonable in my opinion.

I wanted to address this, because I am one person who has spoken up about the assumptions around NG's abilities. Everything here, MOO of course. I am nowhere near NG's age (I am actually younger than SG), so this does not come from a place of defensiveness. Disagreement on matters of opinion does not imply bad faith. I think most of us here are doing our best to figure out what happened, based on our own personal experiences, which is about all we can do, given the lack of facts.

First, I completely respect your experience and knowledge as a lawyer. I can only speak for myself, but when I opine on the abilities of NG, I am neither making nor predicting any legal argument. We are so far away from this being in a courtroom that it seems pointless to speculate on, and I don't have the knowledge to do so anyway. I really don't think most of this discussion is about what would make for a sound legal argument at this point; it's about what the scant evidence we do have might suggest about what actually happened, with the goal of finding NG. This thread is about finding her, not building a case against any perp. All the legal stuff will play out later and is a separate question.

If we review all of the available information, I think we'll see that there are some conflicting perspectives on how mobile, active, and able NG is. My personal opinion (nothing more!) is that her frailty may be somewhat played up in the public communications to the ransom note writers and in the press conferences, to engender sympathy and humanize her. In these contexts, I do not think that it would help achieve anyone's goal to emphasize how strong and independent she is, and how she'll be just fine on her own. That's just not the narrative they want to be weaving at this point.

This is not to say that it's not clearly (IMO) true that she has mobility issues, and likely that she's on important medication, is injured easily, etc. But it's also not to say that she doesn't regularly move herself around town without assistance, drive a car, and generally lead an active life. These things can both be true.

The bottom line of my frustration with some of the discourse here is that it is framed as "because she is a frail old lady, it's simply impossible that she did X, and therefore the explanation must be Y." As outsiders, we do not know definitively what she can and can't do. We can talk all day about what we might consider reasonable for someone in a similar condition, but 1) we don't have a ton of details about what her condition actually is — just snippets of incomplete information, and 2) what might be reasonable for other people is not really conclusive evidence of what happened here.

I'm totally fine with "hey, given what we know about NG's age and condition, this scenario seems unlikely to me." I'm less ok with "no one in NG's age and condition could have done that, so obviously this is what happened." Maybe it seems like a subtle distinction, but I guess I'm just looking for some nuance, some acknowledgement that we're dealing with an individual human being rather than an abstract average statistic, and an understanding that we're all doing our best here with very limited information.

None of us truly know what happened, and whether we like it or not, the bits and pieces of information we have do not point in a single direction. It's not bad faith to share our own opinions based on the combination of life experience and the information we do have.
 
Last edited:
  • #13,989
Hi, Can someone think of a similiarly perplexing case to this one. Just thought it would be interesting to read about another case that is interesting as this one.
 
  • #13,990
Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping

February 9, 2026

A former top FBI official has raised doubts about whether Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mom, Nancy, is really still alive and being held by kidnappers.

“I’m very skeptical of this,” former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker told Fox News’ “The Big Weekend Show” on Sunday. “Is this really a kidnapping? Does somebody really have her, and is she really alive?” he said of the fiends claiming to have her.

[…]

“If this was a kidnapping, it would be a very simple matter to authenticate and provide proof of life,” Swecker said, noting that no evidence had been “credibly authenticated at this point.” “You have to allow for the possibility that this was something more or something other than a kidnapping.”

Swecker also pointed to the ransom demands being reported, which skyrocketed from $1 million to a reported $6 million in a matter of days. “Remember now, it was 1 million not too long ago. All of a sudden, it’s 6 million,” Swecker told the outlet. “I really think there’s a third party here that’s just playing with them, opportunists who think they can exploit this situation.”
[…]

More at link:
Former FBI top official doubts whether Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance was actually a kidnapping
One thing is true IMO- If this is a kidnapping, (and maybe even if it isn't) and the family pays, then it is open season on relatives of famous people in the US in a way that only Mexico and Brazil have experienced.
 
  • #13,991
i am trying to get my mind with yours...if she opened the door from inside, why go outside? I can imagine open it, get hit, bleed etc but she had to have been outside to bleed outside. If she was hit as soon as she opened the door, wouldn't the blood be inside? Further, and I am no blood expert...in fact, I'm no expert on anything!...the blood doesn't appear to be spread out. It looks like someone stood in one spot and dripped. How does that fit?

Now that you have me thinking on this, I also can't fathom it in reverse...if she was carried out of the house I guess she would have to have stood there bleeding maybe while someone was locking all 4 locks behind them?? I don't even know if the door was locked but if it was, who had the key? Hasn't it been said that her keys, wallet, phone etc were in the house? I just can't make the blood work for me. I appreciate the thought provoking discussion
The outside metal door opens outward.Nancy sees someone she recognizes and opens the metal door outwards,maybe stepping down into the mat.The blood droplets are beside the mat.I think she was then taken back inside,killed and taken out the back door to be buried somewhere.I’m thinking strangulation if AG and TC didn’t see a lot of biological evidence.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_9298.webp
    IMG_9298.webp
    91.6 KB · Views: 25
  • #13,992
What if the direction of bleeding was actually from the driveway towards the house? That would explain the increased blood by the front door as it was being unlocked. Exiting of the house could then have occurred from a car in the garage.
If that is the case, where does it fit in the timeline?

We know the blood is NG's. When would she have walked INTO the house with an injury?

I'm willing to think this out, while we wait.

jmo
 
  • #13,993
What if the direction of bleeding was actually from the driveway towards the house? That would explain the increased blood by the front door as it was being unlocked. Exiting of the house could then have occurred from a car in the garage.
this makes more sense to me but why was she outside bleeding? Why would she go back inside bleeding? The blood has really stumped me.
 
  • #13,994
One thing is true IMO- If this is a kidnapping, (and maybe even if it isn't) and the family pays, then it is open season on relatives of famous people in the US in a way that only Mexico and Brazil have experienced.
💯
 
  • #13,995
One thing is true IMO- If this is a kidnapping, (and maybe even if it isn't) and the family pays, then it is open season on relatives of famous people in the US in a way that only Mexico and Brazil have experienced.
That is my concern about paying the ransom. If this is a kidnapping, let's make sure the perps do not get paid and they are sent to prison.
 
  • #13,996
If the notes are an opportunist and not the person who took NG, then I fall back on statistics and a close family member. An accidental heat of the moment crime with a panicked coverup.
I tend to think this makes the most logical sense of the facts at hand.
 
  • #13,997
I think the blood was from when she opened the door and hit.She was likely then pushed inside after that.
I also wonder if she had already been hit inside and she attempted to escape through the front door. Then she was pulled back in rather than pushed in.
 
  • #13,998
Its not like the northeast where you could walk across backyards, its little hills and small ravines and small washes that would make it difficult to be anywhere that wouldn't be very visible
You would hope LE in these 'missing person' or 'searching for a body' situations use heat-seeling drones early on so they didn't have to rely solely on naked-eye visibility.
 
  • #13,999
The blood on the porch might even be from a different incident that Nancy had that is unrelated. 🤷‍♀️

In the last two days I provided a breakdown of this; not sure where that comment is ...but this may help.

Generally, blood changes as it dries and ages:

Color: Fresh blood is usually bright to dark red. As it dries, it turns darker brownish-red, and over time can look almost rust-colored.

Texture: New blood looks wet, glossy, or tacky.Older blood is dry, flaky, or crusted.

Edges: Fresh stains often have smooth edges.Older ones may have cracked or uneven edges as they dry.

Smell: Very fresh blood has little smell; older blood can develop a metallic or musty odor.

There is no single reliable test that gives an exact time. Instead, experts combine multiple indicators:

Visual changes (very rough only)
Color and drying patterns change over time, but this is highly unreliable on its own. Lighting, surface type, humidity, and temperature all affect appearance.

Chemical changes in hemoglobin
As blood ages, hemoglobin breaks down and oxidizes. Labs can analyze these changes to estimate whether blood is very recent vs. older, but not a precise hour or day.

RNA degradation
RNA in blood cells degrades at a predictable but variable rate. This can sometimes help distinguish fresh (hours–day) from older (days–weeks) stains under controlled conditions.

DNA quality
DNA itself doesn’t “expire” quickly, but fragmentation patterns can provide broad Environmental context
Heat, sunlight, moisture, airflow, surface material (carpet vs. tile), and whether the blood was disturbed all dramatically affect aging. This is why timelines often come with wide ranges. Timing clues—again, very approximate.
 
  • #14,000
That is my concern about paying the ransom. If this is a kidnapping, let's make sure the perps do not get paid and they are sent to prison.
Replying to myself - and hoaxers shouldn't be rewarded either. I understand wanting to pay the ransom while at the same time understand NOT paying the ransom.

It's a decision that tortures. I hate it.
 

Guardians Monthly Goal

Staff online

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
357
Guests online
3,879
Total visitors
4,236

Forum statistics

Threads
640,658
Messages
18,762,585
Members
244,701
Latest member
drewdunbar_1977
Back
Top