• #31,521
Do you think that Nancy left her house alive? Or did something happen during the kidnapping/robbery and she had a medical episode and passed within minutes?
I’m adding my opinion that Ive held from the beginning : that someone went to NG’s house that first night with the intent to kill her, which they did jmo. I don’t think this has anything to do with a robbery and I dont think it’s tied to a live kidnapping case either. No robber goes in to a house with a fully loaded backpack. A robber tends to carry one break in tool and an empty backpack to carry out the goods. And I’m not sure Ive heard of a robber (who wanted stolen goods) deciding it was better for him to take the person hostage or carry out the dead body from the house. The blood on the front porch tells me her serious injury happened on the front porch, (until we hear facts that there was a blood trail into the home). I think the stats say that most robberies occur during the daytime when people are not home sleeping. Who wanted NG dead is the question I’m still holding on to. The sideline circus of ransom notes is the second criminal case jmo, one that I am less interested in. Anxious for resolution for the family no matter what the true story is.
 
  • #31,522
This is an excellent interview about this case with Mary Ellen O'Toole, one of the pioneers of criminal profiling. Some of the questions aren't developed well by the interviewer (i.e. the pacemaker) but her analysis and profile are pretty compelling. JMO.


Source - WAVY TV10 News
 
  • #31,523
This is an excellent interview about this case with Mary Ellen O'Toole, one of the pioneers of criminal profiling. Some of the questions aren't developed well by the interviewer (i.e. the pacemaker) but her analysis and profile are pretty compelling. JMO.


Source - WAVY TV10 News
SlimPickens, Thank you for this.
She is superb.
Riveting.
Learned a lot, as..... she had slightly different takes on all the salient points brought up so far.
(MOO)
 
  • #31,524
A few posters have noted that removal would be a very unusual staging in a burglary gone wrong scenario. While I agree, I think the issue with a probability analysis is if we are in a highly unusual factual situation then definitionally, all scenarios remaining will be statistically rare.

To illustrate, although it does not appear that there is specific Federal data on this, abduction of a wealthy person for ransom in the US is also exceptionally rare IMO.
 
  • #31,525
To my mind:

If this was a targeted kidnap of a wealthy person then it seems so unprofessional to have left blood,footage and to be conducting business via TMZ

if this was a burglary gone wrong - what use would an elderly woman be to you?

i cannot think of any scenario that makes sense other than a totally haphazard burglar perhaps panicking and doing something stupid here

very very few scenarios actually make any sense imho
 
  • #31,526
I'm not getting why the FBI need to announce that they are going to enter the DNA results into the DNA data base; just do it.
 
  • #31,527
To my mind:

If this was a targeted kidnap of a wealthy person then it seems so unprofessional to have left blood,footage and to be conducting business via TMZ

if this was a burglary gone wrong - what use would an elderly woman be to you?

i cannot think of any scenario that makes sense other than a totally haphazard burglar perhaps panicking and doing something stupid here

very very few scenarios actually make any sense imho
Yes, but this isn't just any 'elderly woman', the story has been 'magnified' because it isn't. Even when the first notification of the ransom notes took place tells us a lot, it took a number of days.
 
  • #31,528
DNA in the house may or may not solve this case. If this was in fact pulled off by a family member, their DNA would already be in the house and wouldn’t be deemed suspicious. How can they rule out other people who worked on the home? Yes, their DNA is accounted for but we don’t know that it wasn’t them in the video that night. They may have alibis but people lie for people all the time. Then there are items that could have been touched by someone outside of the home, a phone for example if she showed someone something on it, or her watch. If they find DNA in the home from someone no one knows and it shows up in a criminal database, great, but that still may not be the end of it if it’s touch DNA. This may take a really long time to weed through unless someone confesses, someone squeals, or a body is recovered. I can’t imagine having this go on for years. What a nightmare.
 
  • #31,529
This is an excellent interview about this case with Mary Ellen O'Toole, one of the pioneers of criminal profiling. Some of the questions aren't developed well by the interviewer (i.e. the pacemaker) but her analysis and profile are pretty compelling. JMO.


Source - WAVY TV10 News

In this interview, O'Toole says the victim was targetted.

But how do we know that? She might be correct, but I believe that is an assumption not currently confirmed by LE.
 
  • #31,530
In this interview, O'Toole says the victim was targetted.

But how do we know that? She might be correct, but I believe that is an assumption not currently confirmed by LE.

She's basing her assumption/analysis on the fact that Ms Guthrie is statistically a "low risk victim" meaning that she doesn't affiliate with criminals, lives in a nice neighborhood, etc., and that since she is statistically a low risk victim then the probability of her being randomly targeted is low and the probability of her being specifically targeted is high. In other words, folks that live in nicer areas are less likely to be a victim of violent crime, and since she was a victim of violent crime it was less likely random violence and more likely targeted violence.

Hope that made sense.

JMO.
 
  • #31,531
Who thinks someone in the family is responsible for what happened to Ms Guthrie ?

Hapless Lantana guy (+ possible accomplice) were hired to act like burglars and stage it ?

While I never wanted to believe this, it couldn't be ruled out... and was fueled when LE kept returning to TC/AG's property as well as door to door in their immediate neighbourhood

The whole home invasion gone wrong - taking Ms Guthrie - makes no sense. Although, tbf, nothing's made a shred of sense since day 1.

*edited to add... just putting a theory out, not saying it's what I do think occurred.
The direct family are not experienced in crime of this nature so they are unlikely to have the network to hire someone like Latana guy. Also, without having deep trust with Latana guy it would be so risky for the family (if they were involved) to expose such a crime to a random criminal in order to hire them. I don't think it is any of NG's direct family, but not ruling out someone associated to them.
 
  • #31,532
She's basing her assumption/analysis on the fact that Ms Guthrie is statistically a "low risk victim" meaning that she doesn't affiliate with criminals, lives in a nice neighborhood, etc., and that since she is statistically a low risk victim then the probability of her being randomly targeted is low and the probability of her being specifically targeted is high. In other words, folks that live in nicer areas are less likely to be a victim of violent crime, and since she was a victim of violent crime it was less likely random violence and more likely targeted violence.

Hope that made sense.

JMO.
Her daughter elevates her risk of being targeted some what? That's probably the only thing that poses risk
MOO
 
  • #31,533
I realize she's the natural choice for spokesperson, I wasn't even scrutinizing her just wondering why the format and team approach was replaced. I'm sure she's advised before making a video.
JMO - If it were me and every eye blink, hand movement or non movement was scrutinized for something nefarious, I wouldn't want to be on camera either. SG is in her element in front of the camera, albeit not in this capacity, and has professional composure
 
  • #31,534
How are they interfering with what is going on. There is nothing going on.
I think she is spot on. Bloggers, podcasters, and the yellow journalists motivated by clicks and looking to make a name for themselves with scoops that are premature or unfounded. They're not professional journalists who report facts without inserting themselves into the story. Overall, the sensationalist outlets and individuals covering this are hampering progress of the investigation in my opinion. They've played fast and loose with the facts and wild speculation. They posted online about the two major LE operations in advance and while they were underway, tipping off potential targets and possibly endangering the victim's life. They've doxed people who they incorrectly believe to be targets, individuals questioned and released, acquaintances of family members with no indication they're involved. They've harrassed and spread baseless rumors about family members, repeating misinformation about gambling debts and the like so often it is seen as fact. The circus atmosphere created by the media frenzy has repercussions for real people, like the car dealer whose business w an adjacent property. Getting the word out was critical, and mainstream media provide excellent, balanced coverage. The online and tabloid journalists, the unscrupulous self-promoters, are not value-added here.
 
  • #31,535
How are they interfering with what is going on. There is nothing going on.
Think she should mind her own business. The main channels are doing exactly the same as podcasters etc. All of them sitting at swat locations trying to get the scoop.
 
  • #31,536
I think she is spot on. Bloggers, podcasters, and the yellow journalists motivated by clicks and looking to make a name for themselves with scoops that are premature or unfounded. They're not professional journalists who report facts without inserting themselves into the story. Overall, the sensationalist outlets and individuals covering this are hampering progress of the investigation in my opinion. They've played fast and loose with the facts and wild speculation. They posted online about the two major LE operations in advance and while they were underway, tipping off potential targets and possibly endangering the victim's life. They've doxed people who they incorrectly believe to be targets, individuals questioned and released, acquaintances of family members with no indication they're involved. They've harrassed and spread baseless rumors about family members, repeating misinformation about gambling debts and the like so often it is seen as fact. The circus atmosphere created by the media frenzy has repercussions for real people, like the car dealer whose business w an adjacent property. Getting the word out was critical, and mainstream media provide excellent, balanced coverage. The online and tabloid journalists, the unscrupulous self-promoters, are not value-added here.
And the Daily mail reporters aren't? They are doing the same thing. NBC, Brian, JLR. The tips regarding Swat movements are coming from the main channel reporters first!
You obviously arent watching it live as you can see they are all following each other!
 
  • #31,537
She's basing her assumption/analysis on the fact that Ms Guthrie is statistically a "low risk victim" meaning that she doesn't affiliate with criminals, lives in a nice neighborhood, etc., and that since she is statistically a low risk victim then the probability of her being randomly targeted is low and the probability of her being specifically targeted is high. In other words, folks that live in nicer areas are less likely to be a victim of violent crime, and since she was a victim of violent crime it was less likely random violence and more likely targeted violence.

Hope that made sense.

JMO.

I understand that part as far as it goes.

But i still believe that there is an assumption built into the framework i.e the purpose was to do a violent crime. What if it was the house targeted and not a person?

Personally I don't think we have anywhere near enough information to decide which of various unlikely scenarios is more probable, on a purely statistical basis.

But I do agree that if a crime against the person (abduction, assault etc) was the idea, then its likely selective. FWIW
 
  • #31,538
Why are they leaking stories today? How did we move from Nanos' statement that it "could take years" and helicopter searches in the desert to a sudden, overwhelming belief that Nancy is alive and well? Also, she's been kept well for 15 days by the guy on the video who physically harmed Nancy within the first hour of their encounter?

This is crazy. There must be something going on and this is meant to keep us chattering while they negotiate with the kidnapper. There is honestly no scenario I can come up with where Nancy was the intended target of a robbery but in the criminals panic he chose to take her with him. For the past two weeks he's fed her, given her a place to eat, and escorted to the bathroom every time while also keeping her from screaming out or doing anything else to jeopardize his freedom. When do thieves take people? That sounds absurd. It's like your in a deep dark hole and you're digging deeper. There has to be a better explanation than this.

If somebody took her two weeks ago because they panicked, then they clearly have no impulse control or reasoning skills. They may be incapable of caring for themselves. MOO
 
  • #31,539
I hope I haven't missed someone else posting the link, but we've had an elderly person kidnapped in Australia - not a lot of information available at this stage but we have a link on WS here:


A very distressing situation - Chris Baghsarian is 85 years old and at this stage they are thinking mistaken identity. It's getting limited coverage here, but I am just posting as this is a rare situation like Nancy's.

The latest link I can find has more details - there are some distressing images in the article but they have been blurred.


Hope it's not too off topic, just thought it was relevant given the age of the person kidnapped, and in this case they seem to think they took the wrong person (I'm not sure at this stage, either way hoping he is returned home)
 
  • #31,540
Why are they leaking stories today? How did we move from Nanos' statement that it "could take years" and helicopter searches in the desert to a sudden, overwhelming belief that Nancy is alive and well? Also, she's been kept well for 15 days by the guy on the video who physically harmed Nancy within the first hour of their encounter?

This is crazy. There must be something going on and this is meant to keep us chattering while they negotiate with the kidnapper. There is honestly no scenario I can come up with where Nancy was the intended target of a robbery but in the criminals panic he chose to take her with him. For the past two weeks he's fed her, given her a place to eat, and escorted to the bathroom every time while also keeping her from screaming out or doing anything else to jeopardize his freedom. When do thieves take people? That sounds absurd. It's like your in a deep dark hole and you're digging deeper. There has to be a better explanation than this.

If somebody took her two weeks ago because they panicked, then they clearly have no impulse control or reasoning skills. They may be incapable of caring for themselves. MOO
Agreed. How can we expect that this person has a safe place for her? Food, water? Change of clothes and underwear? Restroom? Shower? Without meds for 2 weeks? It doesn't sound believable to me at all.
 

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