AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[mrjitty]

This is an excellent interview about this case with Mary Ellen O'Toole, one of the pioneers of criminal profiling. Some of the questions aren't developed well by the interviewer (i.e. the pacemaker) but her analysis and profile are pretty compelling. JMO.

Source - WAVY TV10 News

In this interview, O'Toole says the victim was targetted.

But how do we know that? She might be correct, but I believe that is an assumption not currently confirmed by LE.

 

[SlimPickens]

In this interview, O'Toole says the victim was targetted.

But how do we know that? She might be correct, but I believe that is an assumption not currently confirmed by LE.

She's basing her assumption/analysis on the fact that Ms Guthrie is statistically a "low risk victim" meaning that she doesn't affiliate with criminals, lives in a nice neighborhood, etc., and that since she is statistically a low risk victim then the probability of her being randomly targeted is low and the probability of her being specifically targeted is high. In other words, folks that live in nicer areas are less likely to be a victim of violent crime, and since she was a victim of violent crime it was less likely random violence and more likely targeted violence.

Hope that made sense.

JMO.

 

[Duk3]

Who thinks someone in the family is responsible for what happened to Ms Guthrie ?

Hapless Lantana guy (+ possible accomplice) were hired to act like burglars and stage it ?

While I never wanted to believe this, it couldn't be ruled out... and was fueled when LE kept returning to TC/AG's property as well as door to door in their immediate neighbourhood

The whole home invasion gone wrong - taking Ms Guthrie - makes no sense. Although, tbf, nothing's made a shred of sense since day 1.

*edited to add... just putting a theory out, not saying it's what I do think occurred.

The direct family are not experienced in crime of this nature so they are unlikely to have the network to hire someone like Latana guy. Also, without having deep trust with Latana guy it would be so risky for the family (if they were involved) to expose such a crime to a random criminal in order to hire them. I don't think it is any of NG's direct family, but not ruling out someone associated to them.

 

[TheDinks]

The direct family are not experienced in crime of this nature so they are unlikely to have the network to hire someone like Latana guy. Also, without having deep trust with Latana guy it would be so risky for the family (if they were involved) to expose such a crime to a random criminal in order to hire them. I don't think it is any of NG's direct family, but not ruling out someone associated to them.

Every theory has holes, f'sure and nothing seems to make sense. However, something can't be dismissed because it is "unlikely". We have no idea what contacts they have... only takes a friend of a friend.

Take the Adelsons, for example. Well respected family with dental business... okay, sure, some of son Charlie's (CA) exploits were dicey but we only know about these after the fact. Face value - very respectable family. But player CA had a g/f who had connections with Miami gangbangers. Next minute - CA's ex brother-in-law (DM) was shot and killed by unsophisticated (to say the least!) hitmen - and all because CA's sister W (recently divorced from DM) and W & CA's mom had enough of dealing with DM. [short version]

 

[submarine7]

She's basing her assumption/analysis on the fact that Ms Guthrie is statistically a "low risk victim" meaning that she doesn't affiliate with criminals, lives in a nice neighborhood, etc., and that since she is statistically a low risk victim then the probability of her being randomly targeted is low and the probability of her being specifically targeted is high. In other words, folks that live in nicer areas are less likely to be a victim of violent crime, and since she was a victim of violent crime it was less likely random violence and more likely targeted violence.

Hope that made sense.

JMO.

Her daughter elevates her risk of being targeted some what? That's probably the only thing that poses risk
MOO

 

[submarine7]

I realize she's the natural choice for spokesperson, I wasn't even scrutinizing her just wondering why the format and team approach was replaced. I'm sure she's advised before making a video.

JMO - If it were me and every eye blink, hand movement or non movement was scrutinized for something nefarious, I wouldn't want to be on camera either. SG is in her element in front of the camera, albeit not in this capacity, and has professional composure

 

[Bodhi]

How are they interfering with what is going on. There is nothing going on.

I think she is spot on. Bloggers, podcasters, and the yellow journalists motivated by clicks and looking to make a name for themselves with scoops that are premature or unfounded. They're not professional journalists who report facts without inserting themselves into the story. Overall, the sensationalist outlets and individuals covering this are hampering progress of the investigation in my opinion. They've played fast and loose with the facts and wild speculation. They posted online about the two major LE operations in advance and while they were underway, tipping off potential targets and possibly endangering the victim's life. They've doxed people who they incorrectly believe to be targets, individuals questioned and released, acquaintances of family members with no indication they're involved. They've harrassed and spread baseless rumors about family members, repeating misinformation about gambling debts and the like so often it is seen as fact. The circus atmosphere created by the media frenzy has repercussions for real people, like the car dealer whose business w an adjacent property. Getting the word out was critical, and mainstream media provide excellent, balanced coverage. The online and tabloid journalists, the unscrupulous self-promoters, are not value-added here.

 

[pulchra73]

How are they interfering with what is going on. There is nothing going on.

Think she should mind her own business. The main channels are doing exactly the same as podcasters etc. All of them sitting at swat locations trying to get the scoop.

 

[pulchra73]

I think she is spot on. Bloggers, podcasters, and the yellow journalists motivated by clicks and looking to make a name for themselves with scoops that are premature or unfounded. They're not professional journalists who report facts without inserting themselves into the story. Overall, the sensationalist outlets and individuals covering this are hampering progress of the investigation in my opinion. They've played fast and loose with the facts and wild speculation. They posted online about the two major LE operations in advance and while they were underway, tipping off potential targets and possibly endangering the victim's life. They've doxed people who they incorrectly believe to be targets, individuals questioned and released, acquaintances of family members with no indication they're involved. They've harrassed and spread baseless rumors about family members, repeating misinformation about gambling debts and the like so often it is seen as fact. The circus atmosphere created by the media frenzy has repercussions for real people, like the car dealer whose business w an adjacent property. Getting the word out was critical, and mainstream media provide excellent, balanced coverage. The online and tabloid journalists, the unscrupulous self-promoters, are not value-added here.

And the Daily mail reporters aren't? They are doing the same thing. NBC, Brian, JLR. The tips regarding Swat movements are coming from the main channel reporters first!
You obviously arent watching it live as you can see they are all following each other!

 

[mrjitty]

She's basing her assumption/analysis on the fact that Ms Guthrie is statistically a "low risk victim" meaning that she doesn't affiliate with criminals, lives in a nice neighborhood, etc., and that since she is statistically a low risk victim then the probability of her being randomly targeted is low and the probability of her being specifically targeted is high. In other words, folks that live in nicer areas are less likely to be a victim of violent crime, and since she was a victim of violent crime it was less likely random violence and more likely targeted violence.

Hope that made sense.

JMO.

I understand that part as far as it goes.

But i still believe that there is an assumption built into the framework i.e the purpose was to do a violent crime. What if it was the house targeted and not a person?

Personally I don't think we have anywhere near enough information to decide which of various unlikely scenarios is more probable, on a purely statistical basis.

But I do agree that if a crime against the person (abduction, assault etc) was the idea, then its likely selective. FWIW

 

[submarine7]

Why are they leaking stories today? How did we move from Nanos' statement that it "could take years" and helicopter searches in the desert to a sudden, overwhelming belief that Nancy is alive and well? Also, she's been kept well for 15 days by the guy on the video who physically harmed Nancy within the first hour of their encounter?

This is crazy. There must be something going on and this is meant to keep us chattering while they negotiate with the kidnapper. There is honestly no scenario I can come up with where Nancy was the intended target of a robbery but in the criminals panic he chose to take her with him. For the past two weeks he's fed her, given her a place to eat, and escorted to the bathroom every time while also keeping her from screaming out or doing anything else to jeopardize his freedom. When do thieves take people? That sounds absurd. It's like your in a deep dark hole and you're digging deeper. There has to be a better explanation than this.

If somebody took her two weeks ago because they panicked, then they clearly have no impulse control or reasoning skills. They may be incapable of caring for themselves. MOO

 

[Strangeworld]

I hope I haven't missed someone else posting the link, but we've had an elderly person kidnapped in Australia - not a lot of information available at this stage but we have a link on WS here:

Australia Thread 'Australia - Chris Baghsarian, 85, Sydney, Kidnapped 13 February 2026'

Saturday at 4:17 PM

Chris Baghsarian was kidnapped on February 13, 2026. I forgot to put that in the title. If anyone knows how to edit it, I would be grateful.

Chris Baghsarian, 85, kidnapped in reported case of mistaken identity in Sydney

Grandfather, 85, Snatched from His Home in Case of Suspected Mistaken Identity: ‘Screaming Just Kept on Going'

• Molly's Mom
• Replies: 14
• Forum: Missing Persons Discussion

• 
• 
• 

A very distressing situation - Chris Baghsarian is 85 years old and at this stage they are thinking mistaken identity. It's getting limited coverage here, but I am just posting as this is a rare situation like Nancy's.

The latest link I can find has more details - there are some distressing images in the article but they have been blurred.

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/chilling-cctv-captures-moments-elderly-sydney-man-kidnapped-from-quiet-suburban-home/news-story/8f326e61f60114205c884a1fa8ca6e1b

Hope it's not too off topic, just thought it was relevant given the age of the person kidnapped, and in this case they seem to think they took the wrong person (I'm not sure at this stage, either way hoping he is returned home)

 

[SMK777]

Why are they leaking stories today? How did we move from Nanos' statement that it "could take years" and helicopter searches in the desert to a sudden, overwhelming belief that Nancy is alive and well? Also, she's been kept well for 15 days by the guy on the video who physically harmed Nancy within the first hour of their encounter?

This is crazy. There must be something going on and this is meant to keep us chattering while they negotiate with the kidnapper. There is honestly no scenario I can come up with where Nancy was the intended target of a robbery but in the criminals panic he chose to take her with him. For the past two weeks he's fed her, given her a place to eat, and escorted to the bathroom every time while also keeping her from screaming out or doing anything else to jeopardize his freedom. When do thieves take people? That sounds absurd. It's like your in a deep dark hole and you're digging deeper. There has to be a better explanation than this.

If somebody took her two weeks ago because they panicked, then they clearly have no impulse control or reasoning skills. They may be incapable of caring for themselves. MOO

Agreed. How can we expect that this person has a safe place for her? Food, water? Change of clothes and underwear? Restroom? Shower? Without meds for 2 weeks? It doesn't sound believable to me at all.

 

[connie9030]

I think she is spot on. Bloggers, podcasters, and the yellow journalists motivated by clicks and looking to make a name for themselves with scoops that are premature or unfounded. They're not professional journalists who report facts without inserting themselves into the story. Overall, the sensationalist outlets and individuals covering this are hampering progress of the investigation in my opinion. They've played fast and loose with the facts and wild speculation. They posted online about the two major LE operations in advance and while they were underway, tipping off potential targets and possibly endangering the victim's life. They've doxed people who they incorrectly believe to be targets, individuals questioned and released, acquaintances of family members with no indication they're involved. They've harrassed and spread baseless rumors about family members, repeating misinformation about gambling debts and the like so often it is seen as fact. The circus atmosphere created by the media frenzy has repercussions for real people, like the car dealer whose business w an adjacent property. Getting the word out was critical, and mainstream media provide excellent, balanced coverage. The online and tabloid journalists, the unscrupulous self-promoters, are not value-added here

So true! I hope citizens all around the country now understand the consequences of interfering in LE operations. Tipping off targets can be very dangerous and doxxing is very detrimental not just to targets but their families. Step back and let LE do their job.

 

[Cassie P]

So let's say this was the plan or something like it, is it for ransom? I could have bought the ransom letters but they apparently never gave proof of life, so if that's what the plan was, she had to have passed away or they would have given POL to get paid right?

We don't know the motives for robbers to take NG if the robbery went bad. Did she recognize on of them? Or did one of them injure her? Was she taken to hide more serious crimes than robbery? Or being identified?

We also do not know what is going on behind the scenes with the kidnappers/LE/family.

 

[connie9030]

This is pretty eye opening to listen to. Brian conducts an interview with Sargent Cross, he's a sargent and union president for the pima county sheriff's office.

At 37:25 Brian asks him if it's true that the homicide department is fairly inexperienced

Cross states that the homicide department has 96 detectives, and that 45 of them are "detective 1s", not sure what that equates to in months or years but they're newer to the homicide team.

Cross said he believes the most senior detective in the homicide department has been there 3 years. There are other detectives currently with homicide that have more experience overall, with other departments, but newer to homicide.

I watched that too. Previous no-confidence vote regarding the Sheriff came back almost unanimously yes. 1 no vote. Cross said Sheriff won 2024 election by about 500 votes. A mass exodus of detectives and patrol resulted after that resulting in the inexperience of those in the department. Sounds like nobody wants to work for him.

 

[Cassie P]

Agreed. How can we expect that this person has a safe place for her? Food, water? Change of clothes and underwear? Restroom? Shower? Without meds for 2 weeks? It doesn't sound believable to me at all.

Of course it is possible and believable. But it won't be hotel level accommodations or like being at home.

A room, place to sleep, food once a day. Bucket near by or taken to the bathroom twice a day.
Maybe a change of clothing.

People have been held captive with sparse or dismal accommodations and survived.
Women and children were detained in horrid conditions in WWII for example.

But yes an elderly person with health issues is at risk.

 

[SMK777]

Of course it is possible and believable. But it won't be hotel level accommodations or like being at home.

A room, place to sleep, food once a day. Bucket near by or taken to the bathroom twice a day.
Maybe a change of clothing.

People have been held captive with sparse or dismal accommodations and survived.
Women and children were detained in horrid conditions in WWII for example.

But yes an elderly person with health issues is at risk.

I guess so.

 

[MadDoc]

Forgive me if this has been posted before. I have been doing my best to keep up with this thread. I consider myself to be a speed-reader, but it has taken every minute of my spare time.

This happened a few days ago in Sydney. Not sure if it has its own thread yet. When I read about it, I noticed some similarities to Nancy Guthrie's case and some differences.

Kidnapping of Chris Baghsarian (ABC News)

To summarize key points in the article:
* 85-year-old victim
* Believed to be snatched from his bedroom around 5am on Friday by intruders who forced their way into his home
* There are concerns about Mr Baghsarian's wellbeing due his age and because he requires daily medication
* However, LE believe he is still alive and have issued an appeal for his safe return
* CCTV footage shows him being taken by the group - at least 3 people believed to be involved, possibly more
* There is also a video of him "filmed by his kidnappers and distributed by his captors"
* LE believe it is a case of mistaken identity and that the actual target was "a figure with links to the Alameddine crime family"
* The victim's family have not received a ransom demand. The police have no indication whether the "actual target's" family have received a ransom demand (IMO if they did, they may not contact police about it)

I will be following this case with great interest, in parallel with that of Nancy Guthrie.

Anything not in the article is my own opinion and speculation only.

 

[MadDoc]

I hope I haven't missed someone else posting the link, but we've had an elderly person kidnapped in Australia - not a lot of information available at this stage but we have a link on WS here:

Australia Thread 'Australia - Chris Baghsarian, 85, Sydney, Kidnapped 13 February 2026'

Saturday at 4:17 PM

Chris Baghsarian was kidnapped on February 13, 2026. I forgot to put that in the title. If anyone knows how to edit it, I would be grateful.

Chris Baghsarian, 85, kidnapped in reported case of mistaken identity in Sydney

Grandfather, 85, Snatched from His Home in Case of Suspected Mistaken Identity: ‘Screaming Just Kept on Going'

• Molly's Mom
• Replies: 14
• Forum: Missing Persons Discussion

• 
• 
• 

A very distressing situation - Chris Baghsarian is 85 years old and at this stage they are thinking mistaken identity. It's getting limited coverage here, but I am just posting as this is a rare situation like Nancy's.

The latest link I can find has more details - there are some distressing images in the article but they have been blurred.

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/chilling-cctv-captures-moments-elderly-sydney-man-kidnapped-from-quiet-suburban-home/news-story/8f326e61f60114205c884a1fa8ca6e1b

Hope it's not too off topic, just thought it was relevant given the age of the person kidnapped, and in this case they seem to think they took the wrong person (I'm not sure at this stage, either way hoping he is returned home)

I checked the thread before I composed my post, and you must have literally posted at the same time that I did!

Great minds think alike.