AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Sarahlou]

Yes, you are on the right track in my opinion. Think lawn maintenance guy, handyman, pool guy...etc. Whoever it was knew Nancy. So what happened? He went there to commit a burglary, thats why he brought a backpack. He thought it was easy in easy out...but Nancy probably recognized him.

Now, he panics and has to take her with him.

If kidnapping is the plan, you typically do not do it alone, you do not go into a crowded neighborhood, and you do not bring a backpack.

His backpack looked full when he was trying to enter the property though.

 

[SkidRogue]

Celebrity based wealth could be more public and thus easier to recognize than other bases for wealth.

In the end, the daughter's position as a host of The Today show made her far more visible and recognizable than other wealthy people in both name and appearance. Though the crime targeted the mother, the daughterr's daily visibility could have made the link easier to recognize and to confirm.

CONJECTURE

Do you remember the Clutter family murders? Perry Smith and Richard Hickock believed a false rumor about the amount of money Mr. Clutter kept in his safe. Rumors often exaggerate a person's access to wealth, especially if they are famous. In a scenario where bugulars did not find what they were looking for, NG would suddenly become the most valuable thing in the house.

 

[shonyakay]

Yes, you are on the right track in my opinion. Think lawn maintenance guy, handyman, pool guy...etc. Whoever it was knew Nancy. So what happened? He went there to commit a burglary, thats why he brought a backpack. He thought it was easy in easy out...but Nancy probably recognized him.

Now, he panics and has to take her with him.

If kidnapping is the plan, you typically do not do it alone, you do not go into a crowded neighborhood, and you do not bring a backpack.

I see your point of view.

I think it could be a complete stranger to Nancy who just decided to burglarize her home that night.

I was specifically meaning she could have told him about her daughter being the host of the Today Show while he was in her home that night.

Everyone knows the Today Show.
He knew he would be SOL regardless of what he decided to do with her at that point so he decided to take her.
I am just thinking out loud.

 

[penguinface]

Since he was dressed head to toe to cover his identity and had a bite light he may be a prolific burglar. He might carry a gun just in case he had ever has to use it if caught etc.

I’ve wondered if he carried/holstered it in what looks like a haphazard way so that it’s accessible by both his right and left hand, if he needed to pull it at a moment’s notice and his other hand was holding something/otherwise busy.

JMO

 

[LRinCA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023376230066880937

Editing to add:

There has been a discussion of sliding glass doors leading to her covered patio area. It looks to me like a large picture-type window with three sections and the egress is through the blue door with small panes on the right (facing).

 

[SUNchips]

I think he did walk through the blood because I see repeat square patterns that look like transfer from the sole of a sneaker.

View attachment 645504

cropped section from the full image below

View attachment 645505

https://www.the-sun.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2026/02/2026-nancy-guthrie-84-reported-1056311992_c12df7.jpg?resize=960,640&quality=90&strip=all

I noticed that too in the blood. Definitely seems like more clues of what happened to Nancy can be found in the blood pattern.

I know it’s been mentioned before but I’m absolutely SHOCKED that they still haven’t taken the doormat, that’s like day one stuff!

 

[maskedwoman]

They didn’t tow the car at Rio Rico stop—
They didn’t take samples form it

They towed the car at the Culver’s stop because they DID take samples from it—and it has to be further examined and kept until results come back that disqualify it as used in kidnapping or confirm it was used.

Similar cars in some respects (colors, blac rims, shape) but maybe not similar reasons

Now, THAT is interesting. They saw something interesting enough to take samples. I pray this leads to something. Plus, imagine how pi$$ed you would be if LE impounded your car and you did nothing wrong.

 

[Gunther Toody]

His backpack looked full when he was trying to enter the property though.

What in your opinion, was in it? Could it have simply been an internal frame?
In a kidnapping scenario, it would make far more sense to follow the victim until they are somewhat isolated, right?
This criminal looked incompetent, in that he was playing with the doorbell camera, and forced his way in. Why go through that just to kidnap someone, when you could grab them outside a store or while they are on a walk?

 

[iamshadow21]

CONJECTURE

Do you remember the Clutter family murders? Perry Smith and Richard Hickock believed a false rumor about the amount of money Mr. Clutter kept in his safe. Rumors often exaggerate a person's access to wealth, especially if they are famous. In a scenario where bugulars did not find what they were looking for, NG would suddenly become the most valuable thing in the house.

But then you'd expect the house to have been ransacked first. They're not going to immediately take the elderly lady when nothing valuable is in plain sight. They're going to rummage through her underwear and socks drawers, the medicine cabinet, and the freezer at least. Also, her purse was found in the home.

MOO

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Here is a photo taken from the NBC Nightly News/FB Tom Llamas from 02/12 and showing the back sliding door, which we know had been left open, when family arrived for their wellness check:

View attachment 645517

https://fb.watch/FiTWsCPQmk

So the subject possibly gained access via back sliding door (forced entry) after trying to enter through the front door (main entrance)? What are your thoughts about the sequence of events and why do you think like that? Just curious.

Cheers,
Nin

Hello, good morning Nin!

What do you think that white thing is lying in the doorway? Is that a sheet, a painters tarp??? Doesn't make sense that it is there.

I do believe the perp removed the camera or tried to at least at the front door @ 1:47 am and was unsuccessful (Lantana capture) I do believe he made his way to the back sliding door via the gate you had mentioned was left open. I do believe he took Nancy out of the house via the front door because a vehicle was parked near the front of the house. But for entry---I think it was the back door.

Now that begs the question. Did she have a bar she could put in that slider? If so, then how did he gain entry thru that door?

 

[Soccer Hooligan]

Yes! I posted about the pacemaker as a potential use form tracking back on Feb 7th. LE should have been onto that long before me. If it has been my Mom, I would have been driving all of Tucson with her phone and watch looking for a Bluetooth connection no matter how rudimentary that would have been compared to FBI’s technology.

Me too!! At least it’s something and this should be looked into.

 

[iamshadow21]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023376230066880937

As anyone who followed the Idaho College case knows, you don't have to do anything so dramatic to get in a sliding door. There are videos on YouTube on how to get inside a locked sliding door in moments.

MOO

 

[birdbox]

Yes, you are on the right track in my opinion. Think lawn maintenance guy, handyman, pool guy...etc. Whoever it was knew Nancy. So what happened? He went there to commit a burglary, thats why he brought a backpack. He thought it was easy in easy out...but Nancy probably recognized him.

Now, he panics and has to take her with him.

If kidnapping is the plan, you typically do not do it alone, you do not go into a crowded neighborhood, and you do not bring a backpack.

If the burglar would have done just a little bit of homework watching her, he could have snuck in and out while she was playing mahjong with her other daughter esrlier that evening. I guess i am an overachiever, but if that was my line of work, im doing my homework to ensure it doesn't end up kidnap or murder. But then again if we are talking about someone trying to break in and steal stuff, maybe this line of thinking just doesnt computer for them.

 

[aamillaa]

I can’t see a highly organized group with enough people involved to kidnap Nancy, take care of her (meds, etc), and take this risk of getting caught only asking for $6M (if that’s true, so MOO). Especially splitting that between multiple people.

Then again, I don’t see any sort of highly organized group targeting an 84 year old and delivering a ransom with no proof of life.

I know nothing about Bitcoin, but my husband does. He said it’s pretty much traceable and most people agree the government has back doors to easily identify users (his opinion, so MOO). I can’t see a high organized operation not considering that. I mean, what was this individual planning to do with the ransom money? Any movement would be tracked on the blockchain. Random people online have figured out wallets of public individuals by their transactions (no source, MOO).

Combined with released video, seems much more likely to be an amateur. It’s only been two weeks. So long for the family and a long time to hope for a positive resolution, but a very short time from an investigation standpoint.

While it seems mistakes have been made, I do think LE may be further along than we think. I’m not sure I see SG going along with all these very public scripted videos otherwise (instead of the one she did that asked public for info, etc).

I don’t know what to think about this case other than there’s been lots of publicity, twists, and distractions.

I think it may come down to the most simple/likely explanation and the publicity of the case led to this being consumed/discussed as more of a movie than real life.

Currently leaning towards burglary gone wrong/body disposed close to house or inside job by someone with close knowledge. That could change at any point though.

All MOO

 

[jandlinaz]

The sheriff leading the search for Nancy Guthrie has said he “understands” why some have said her son-in-law should be seen as a suspect, but insisted he didn’t want to put “a mark on somebody who could be completely innocent.”

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said that while “nobody” has been ruled out, he was troubled by “nasty stuff” being circulated about Cioni.

“If he [Tommaso Cioni] is guilty, if he’s the one who did it, and we’re able to prove that, then at that time jump on it but don’t come out of nowhere with this,” Sheriff Nanos told the Daily Mail on Sunday.

“I understand the pundits are out there. They’re gonna say, well, he’s the last one to see her alive. We understand that stuff. But, my goodness, you’re putting a mark on somebody who could be completely innocent. And more important than that, he’s family,” he added.

“People out there can get pretty ugly and mean and nasty and not have the facts. I tell my journalists, you guys need to be a little more responsible… because that’s just really nasty stuff,” the sheriff said

Sheriff leading Nancy Guthrie search ‘understands’ interest in son-in-law Tommaso Cioni — but warns of jumping to conclusions

The sheriff leading the search for Nancy Guthrie has said he “understands” why some have said her son-in-law should be seen as a suspect.

nypost.com

I still believe there is only one scenario that makes sense. Let's, first look at the other theories. Burglary gone wrong. How many burglaries are committed by an individual in an area that is that remote and difficult to find. Even reporters get lost using GPS. A gun and a full backpack aren't generally needed for a burglary. Next, an abduction. Plausible, however, what's the motive. I really don't believe rhe ransom notes were legitimate. What fits??

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told the Daily Mail that specialists are working with Google to extract data from cameras in Nancy Guthrie's Arizona home, despite initial setbacks due to offline systems or expired subscriptions.

Google said at first we don't have anything," Nanos told The Daily Mail. "But we're going to do our best to try to what they call 'scratch'.

"It's hard. It's like scratching through layers, think of it like you have eight layers of paint on your house. They want to go to the sixth or seventh layer and they have to be very delicate about it not to destroy what's there.

"I just hope they can scrape a camera shot down that driveway to identify a vehicle. Because, my goodness, you can't put a mask on a vehicle, right?"

The sheriff hopes the forensic work can reveal a vehicle used during the incident, noting, "I just hope they can scrape a camera shot down that driveway to identify a vehicle. Because, my goodness, you can't put a mask on a vehicle, right?"

Nanos oversees a massive team of 400 personnel from local law enforcement, the FBI, and other agencies working nonstop, and he says they've received roughly 40,000 to 50,000 tips, sometimes reaching 5,000 per hour.

Despite criticism online, Nanos stressed the thoroughness of his team's initial investigation, saying officers spent nearly 20 hours processing the scene before the FBI arrived to conduct their work.

He addressed rumors surrounding family members, including Tommaso Cioni, clarifying that no one has been cleared or ruled out in the case, and emphasized that the Guthrie family has been fully cooperative throughout.

While the sheriff would not detail forced entry, camera placements, or exactly how Nancy was removed, he confirmed that only one camera was tampered with by the intruder, a key focus for forensic analysis.

Savannah Guthrie finally receives good news that gives her hope of finding her mother Nancy

Savannah Guthrie received a glimmer of hope in the search for her mother, Nancy, as authorities revealed progress in the investigation, focusing on digital forensics to uncover cri

www.marca.com

Tommaso. Something happened when he dropped Nancy off. He couldn't stick around because his wife was expecting him home. He called someone to go to the house and get Nancy out and clean up the evidence. That door was probably left unlocked. That's why in the video you see the suspect reach for the door and then notice the video doorbell. He mumbles his way trying to cover the doorbell. It, also, explains the full backpack. He has cleaning supplies and possibly a blanket. It explains why he would carry a gun. Nancy is in there alive and the gun is used to motivate Nancy to leave.
Quoting Sherlock Holmes "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

 

[shonyakay]

But then you'd expect the house to have been ransacked first. They're not going to immediately take the elderly lady when nothing valuable is in plain sight. They're going to rummage through her underwear and socks drawers, the medicine cabinet, and the freezer at least. Also, her purse was found in the home.

MOO

We don't know how the inside of the house looked though. It was obvious enough to LE that the home was a crime scene with the way he described it. It seemed something awful happened in there.

The man on the porch is seen at one point with no backpack on but when he is seen at another point with a backpack it is noticeably full.

 

[birdbox]

I posted this last night. LE should potentially be able tie the glove to the Guthrie residence through plant DNA. The glove in question , if used by the perp, should be loaded with lantana plant DNA

 

[zecats]

His backpack looked full when he was trying to enter the property though.

I believe his backpack was carried in necessity and was full of items he needed to commit whatever crime he had planned. Not so sure burglary was that crime. IMO

 

[Gunther Toody]

If the burglar would have done just a little bit of homework watching her, he could have snuck in and out while she was playing mahjong with her other daughter esrlier that evening. I guess i am an overachiever, but if that was my line of work, im doing my homework to ensure it doesn't end up kidnap or murder. But then again if we are talking about someone trying to break in and steal stuff, maybe this line of thinking just doesnt computer for them.

I think everything changed if and when she recognized him. That is something he did not plan on. He probably thought if he was quiet, she wouldn't even wake up.

Then he panics and starts thinking irrationally. The real question should be where did he take her? If he was just someone who wanted some quick cash in a burglary, he was not prepared for a hostage.

He certainly would not take her home, so what were his options?
Again, just my opinions.

 

[birdbox]

CONJECTURE

Do you remember the Clutter family murders? Perry Smith and Richard Hickock believed a false rumor about the amount of money Mr. Clutter kept in his safe. Rumors often exaggerate a person's access to wealth, especially if they are famous. In a scenario where bugulars did not find what they were looking for, NG would suddenly become the most valuable thing in the house.

I agree that a person can have a wealthy,or famous relative and some people may think that wealth applies to everyone in the family.