AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[HoveringWombats]

It could well be from 2:12 am. I think it’s probable. HL did say that LE confirmed that with TMZ. The only thing we know is that the camera had to have reconnected at some point for this footage to appear on Google servers.

The thing we don’t know much about is the supposed disconnection at 1:47 am. We don’t know how or why it happened, or whether the disconnection was temporary. It’s just an event listed in the sheriff’s original timeline, with no detail.

As I've had more time to think through this whole thing, I've increasingly become skeptical that all of the information we have is accurate. It's just hard to reconcile all of the "facts" we have been told with the truth of how this stuff works (in terms of timing, disconnects/reconnects, etc.). I'm not saying that it's impossible that everything is accurate, but I'm not very confident. Especially given how many other pieces of information we've been given that later turned out to be wrong, and how little confirmation we have of key data points. I hope that some day we have enough reliable information to all agree on the truth here, but we're far from that right now, IMO.

 

[Eli9]

F

For God's sake, why don't they just pay the 100k and find out if it's legit once and for all? What do they have to lose at this point?

Yes, it might be a scammer but if it is, at least they'll know and they can stop wasting their time with this guy.

Agree. Pay the guy. It's a total risk but like you say what do they have to lose?

 

[VegasGirl35]

And why isn't this individual in the know claiming the $100k reward money?

I could see many reasons. He has a criminal record. He doesn't trust police. He's afraid his identity will be leaked. He could be a co-conspirator in Nancy's kidnapping. He knows providing insider knowledge of the crime scene puts a giant target on his back and whoever else is involved will take him out.

 

[FaviousM]

Do you mean the headline doesn't match what Nanos actually says in the interview (of Feb 13th)? The headline is unambiguous. Is it completely misleading?

The headline doesn't match what Nanos actually says, in my opinion. The interviewer asks if DNA was found in the house. What Nanos says is "We found DNA". He never says yes to the interviewer's question and never confirms that DNA was found in the house

 

[milkshakedonkey]

Do you mean the headline doesn't match what Nanos actually says in the interview (of Feb 13th)? The headline is unambiguous. Is it completely misleading?

Nanos dances around the question and says they have DNA but he doesn't confirm (as was asked in the question) if it was IN the house. JMO. Also, at this point, I'm not sure I consider Nanos a "reliable narrator". Not that he's being dishonest, just that he spends so much time trying to not say something that he says nothing verifiable. Possibly intentional.

 

[BellaToothless]

To me this is extremely insightful commentary, sorry if it's been posted before but I've only just watched it.

I buy everything Jay Armes III is selling!

CBS News Texas reporter Amelia Mugavero sits down with international private investigator Jay Armes III to watch surveillance images released by the FBI in an effort to identify a masked figure seen on video. He says the footage could be a major breakthrough.

Really excellent analysis IMO. 1 thing that popped out at me:

He noted it's not normal for a home invader to take 41min in the home. He said "it just doesn't happen". And his 2 reasons for why this might have happened was a botched invasion or the Perp was trying to cover forensic evidence. Earlier report below stated that an "anonymous source in LE" said that all of the cameras inside the house that were set up/pointing specifically to know if NG fell were able to be smashed before their motion was able to be visible in recordings/streams.

Source: Nancy Guthrie Abduction Points to 'Inside Job': Chilling New Theory Emerges Surrounding Masked Man Behind Disappearance of 'Today' Host Savannah's Mom

Also note previous LE report that "person was detected" on camera at 2:12? (Unknown whether it was an interior or exterior camera) LE also said it was unknown if it was a person or animal. I have cameras that lists it out like this. Sometimes correct sometimes not.

If true this would acct for the extra time. Would also make me question if this was an inside job (person familiar with the property interior to that extent). Lantana man just didn't seem to be in a hurry. At all. Did not move as though he was concerned about time.

Re the 2 known ransom notes from "the kidnapper" there always seemed to be 2 possibilities: 1. It was not from kidnapper or 2. It was from kidnapper but staged in that the ransom was not primary goal. I say this because it came late after kidnapping. Sent to a celebrity rag TMZ as well as 2 others? (Wants a celebrity stance). Could not offer proof of life or was never intending to. No known amping up of pressure on family after the 2. And why not leave the note if you're already in the home?

Thoughts?

 

[penguinface]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023432488350343456

New letter/ransom note sent to TMZ.

After HL had said about it being a crime if the person isn’t telling the truth and is hoaxing them, I wish he’d said “And if you are real, that’s also a crime - obstruction of justice” or misprision of felony, or whatever the Arizona statute calls that charge.

Even if their lawyer could argue that it’s not technically that, due to the fifth amendment and them having the right not to incriminate themselves, it could still be floated as a possibility by HL, as that should be for a court to decide, not the person concealing information, covering for criminals, and endangering an elderly woman, all for profit (from the hypothetical possibility that they’re telling the truth, I mean!)

JMO

 

[investigatoroffacts]

A go fund me was form by a man in Arizona to help raise funds for the Bitcoin. I think we all saw that coming. Since I don’t want to bring attention to it, please just Google the information to get the article and see the page.

 

[Wishbone]

Do you mean the headline doesn't match what Nanos actually says in the interview (of Feb 13th)? The headline is unambiguous. Is it completely misleading?

All I got out of the video is they found dna and are trying to identify it and the LE are working very hard 24 7

 

[jenimeni23]

A go fund me was form by a man in Arizona to help raise funds for the Bitcoin. I think we all saw that coming. Since I don’t want to bring attention to it, please just Google the information to get the article and see the page.

I saw it and couldn't help but think - there's no way to know of the creator of that G F M was legit and would actually use the funds toward that.

 

[HoveringWombats]

LE also said it was unknown if it was a person or animal. I have cameras that lists it out like this. Sometimes correct sometimes not.

Just to emphasize this — I have a camera that regularly tells me a person was detected in my back yard. 99% of the time, it's a particular tree we have that's blowing in the wind. These things are far from perfect, so we shouldn't take them as rock solid fact.

 

[rebel123]

One of the risks to an investigation like this is – much of it has to be done behind the curtain, (and) it’s important that certain things don’t leak out. And under this kind of spotlight, that can become very difficult,” said Miller, who has worked in both local and federal law enforcement.

Media outlets have largely been cooperative so far, though. “Three different television outlets who received a series of purported ransom notes and demands – possibly real, possibly fake – have been disciplined about not revealing sensitive details about those documents,” Miller said.

Stories regarding possible tension between the Pima County Sheriff’s Office and the FBI, even if they are representative of the mood on the ground, can also be harmful to progress, he added.

“None of this is helpful to the atmosphere and progress of the investigation,” Miller said.

The 3 biggest challenges as the Nancy Guthrie case stretches into week 3

CNN, FBI, SAVANNAH GUTHRIE , INSTAGRAM, KOLD, Savannah Guthrie / Instagram By Elizabeth Hartfield, CNN (CNN) — It’s been 16 days since Nancy Guthrie was reported missing, and investigators working the case that has captivated the nation’s attention are encountering a unique mix of challenges...

abc17news.com

What ever 'medium' law enforcement decide to convey information, it needs to be 'clear', the clearer it is, the more 'engagement' they will get from members of the public. Once it becomes a 'blur' people will lose interest and not 'engage'.

 

[Kapua]

As I've had more time to think through this whole thing, I've increasingly become skeptical that all of the information we have is accurate. It's just hard to reconcile all of the "facts" we have been told with the truth of how this stuff works (in terms of timing, disconnects/reconnects, etc.). I'm not saying that it's impossible that everything is accurate, but I'm not very confident. Especially given how many other pieces of information we've been given that later turned out to be wrong, and how little confirmation we have of key data points. I hope that some day we have enough reliable information to all agree on the truth here, but we're far from that right now, IMO.

I have followed quite a few cases here on WS and I would say that in the majority of those cases, at least some of what the media reported was untrue. You also have to consider that the investigators are not telling us everything to protect the investigation. Sometimes, you just have to sit tight and wait. MOO

 

[TharTrooth]

Was the man with the two backpacks caught on camera the same night NG went missing ever identified?

Could "Lantana man"s full backpack be explained by him having one bag inside the other? Quite why he would do this is open for debate, and apologies if this person has been identified and cleared

Edited - the man has been identified and cleared

 

[aamillaa]

"Them" "Mexico" Author of ransom note has a record of burglary from 10 years ago. Hmmmmm

BBM

Very big clue to who the writer is… especially if the individuals responsible would know this.

Heck of a way to apply pressure if LE has a feeling they know who is this but not enough to act. MOO

 

[txsleuth70]

Yes, but if the dealership sold it 2 days after Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance, the dealer plates would not be on it. A new owner will have permanent license plates when they take their vehicle from the dealer. Most dealers have a runner who goes to the dmv one or more times a day with the paperwork. They attach the new plates so it is ready for you at pick up. If you sell or turn in your current vehicle at the same time, you can use your old plates in most states.
Photo from Fox News 10 shows what appears to be a paper plate which has been covered by LE on the night they towed it.
(Note: I see the vehicle is a Land Rover. I have referred to it as a Range Rover in a previous post.)

Didn't say anything whatsoever about a dealer plate being on the vehicle. One can plainly see that it has a paper tag. Fraud is rampant with paper tags. A criminal wouldn't prioritize getting a metal plate onto a car. They would probably just slap another paper tag onto it. Then sell the car. The new owner wouldn't always necessarily be issued a new metal plate right away because it takes a minute to transfer the title.

 

[K9Enzo]

F

For God's sake, why don't they just pay the 100k and find out if it's legit once and for all? What do they have to lose at this point?

Yes, it might be a scammer but if it is, at least they'll know and they can stop wasting their time with this guy.

Then it signals that threats and extortion work. There are so many families with missing loved ones, even children. This risks them, and future victims.

If homeboy knows something, prove it. But they don't..... to date, it appears. IMO

 

[iamshadow21]

I saw it and couldn't help but think - there's no way to know of the creator of that G F M was legit and would actually use the funds toward that.

So many layers of third rate cons just lining up to get arrested.

MOO

 

[FaviousM]

Was the man with the two backpacks caught on camera the same night NG went missing ever identified?

LE identified them and cleared them

Man seen in security video near gate of Tucson home is cleared in Guthrie disappearance, officials said

Law enforcement officials have cleared a man who was seen near the gate of a Tucson home in a security video from the night Guthrie disappeared, according to

www.nbcnews.com

 

[wibbleflea]

As I've had more time to think through this whole thing, I've increasingly become skeptical that all of the information we have is accurate. It's just hard to reconcile all of the "facts" we have been told with the truth of how this stuff works (in terms of timing, disconnects/reconnects, etc.). I'm not saying that it's impossible that everything is accurate, but I'm not very confident. Especially given how many other pieces of information we've been given that later turned out to be wrong, and how little confirmation we have of key data points. I hope that some day we have enough reliable information to all agree on the truth here, but we're far from that right now, IMO.

I couldn’t agree more. The timeline and initial reporting came too soon to have been the result of forensic work on the devices. I think it came from phone alerts and a poor understanding of tech. That isn’t a criticism. It was what they had at the time. (The wording around the pacemaker event is a prime example.)

The report of a camera disconnected could have been the misinterpretation of an alert on NG’s phone. We know there were multiple cameras and we don’t know how they were named. We can’t be sure that the doorbell camera disconnected; if it did, we don’t know how long it remained offline.

If Harvey Levin is correct about the times and if the Google narrative is real, that camera was connected at or after 2:12 am.