AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[warp3dwing]

1000 POSTS LATER, people speculating on AI vs real images and 2 perps...I dont think there were 2 perps. As everyone knows by now, I have felt from the beginning this was a kidnapper who had a delusional fascination with SG. She is his fantasy girlfriend .He is a marginalized, socially inadequate, man who has a poetic soul and finds his meaning in life through movies and TV. He is fixated on SG. Probably has an area in his home, like an altar, that has her photo, articles about her etc. He thinks when she is on the TODAY show that every word she speaks is CODE, directed at him. He became restless and decided he must have her but he can't. He went for her mom, instead. NOW HE HAS SG's attention. He also has a trophy..SG's mom. He may also have other trophies he took from the home, family photos, or lingerie from SG's old bedroom, for example.

MOTIVE will solve this case, imo. Obsessed stalker. Someone knows him and his devotion to SG. Watching the Today show daily, saving every program she is on, perhaps mentioning her during casual conversations once too often. This is not a 2 perp crime. This guy acted alone. MOO JMO

Do you think the suspect forced entry or was able to access the home by other means?

If entry wasn’t forced, it might narrow down the possibilities. Was a key used? I know LE seldom releases that kind of info.

 

[moonglow123]

If they still have the RR, and they have possible DNA from inside the house, can they not test the two to see if they match?

Yeah, good point, I wonder if they're in the process of doing so. I assumed they'd be testing it for Nancy's too.

 

[Trino]

Where would they search? The last place she was seen was her home, I'm sure they searched that general area. Without an idea of where she was, where would they start?

How about 200 searchers around Tucson area? How about driving 286 near Tucson? 82? 83?

 

[cherryleaf]

I suppose it doesn't matter how they narrow down the list of possible suspects but I am taken aback that they have 40 people on a list of possible suspects. Plus, it seems kind of dumb to buy the gun you intend to use in a crime from a gun store. MOOooo

Sometimes people are so smart they’re stupid.
MOO

 

[Arkay]

Bite Lights are commonly used by pilots for flight deck operations. Does NG know any pilots?

She certainly does know a pilot, but he is a billion percent innocent.

Her son Camron was a career military jet fighter pilot and now flies for the Vermont National Guard. When he made his plea for his mother, IMO the fury in his eyes was striking. He’s helpless here and he’s accustomed to dangerous situations in which he has control, but he cannot do anything here other than beg.

My private wish, although I know it cannot be done with a military jet, is for him to get permission to fly his jet all over the area to aid in the search for his mother.

Savannah once did a segment on Today where she went to Vermont and he had permission to fly her around, very much more challenging than sitting on a commercial plane.

Again I know you can’t take a military jet for private reasons, but that is my secret wish.

JMO

https://www.today.com/video/savannah-and-her-brother-take-flight-in-an-f-16-44510787680

 

[1.618]

I think there is maybe something to the next door neighbor being a prominent gemologist who was showing rare gems and minerals at the Tucson Gem and Mineral Show that was going on at the time all of this happened. I think that's where the "burglary gone wrong" narrative came from-- they are probably wondering if the real target was the neighbor (same neighbor where police were examining the ring flood lights yesterday) and the suspect went to the wrong house.

There were also some thieves at the Tucson Gem and Mineral Show that one of the vendors got on video stealing some of her gems and is asking the public if they can identify. You can't see their faces here so I hope it is okay to post... the gait of the man in white looks very similar to the guy on the porch. This is just my opinion, of course, as I have no more info than anyone else here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2023902402194055353

Totally a possibility, but the intruder(s) spent a fair amount of forethought putting together an ensemble that was tucked in, potentially multi-layered, removed cameras, brought a full backpack containing something bulky/puffy (took up the entire space and probably and fairly lightweight because it seems to stay put as the perp bends over -- if it was heavy, I would expect it to fall to one side more). Gems are not that big unless they are geodes. The blood trail seems to end at the front walkway so that insinuates that a car or vehicle of some kind was possibly backed up to the walkway. Just seems odd that such a seemingly planned event would wind up being them breaking into the wrong house. Whoops, what a big faux pas that would be. And then happenstancing onto NG alone (a female, whereas the gem expert is male) in the middle of night and deciding to remove her from the home. Wouldn't the just bolt from the house and leave NG there in whatever state if they were like oh shoot, wrong house, no gems here!? I think early on it was mentioned nothing was stolen, besides NG. Plus, I can't imagine this gem expert has prize gems just sitting on the coffee table like a paper weight. They'd probably be in a safe if there at all. Just because one studies something, doesn't mean they keep that thing in their house either. Just seems less likely of a scenario to me. The lantana man does seem to amble around and improvise with yard vegetation, but that doesn't mean that the event was not carefully planned.

 

[Chimera]

Totally agree.
Who would do this to NG?
Why would they do this to NG?
Someone wanted her gone from day one…
Sorry

JMO

Agreed !

And at this time, unless something changes, I doubt the motive was robbery.
Jmo.

 

[SaraSmile]

If they still have the RR, and they have possible DNA from inside the house, can they not test the two to see if they match?

I’m sure they are testing all evidence, looking for matches between evidence.

Even more importantly, looking for the donors of the evidence, maybe at least one sample is the perp!

If they find unknown DNA( not in CODIS), then they go to IGG, genetic geneology route. To discover who is the very likely donor. Then, they can find, interview this person.

JMO

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Hopefully they treated the inside of her house with much more care than they did the outside. I literally saw with my own eyes a reporter walking up to the blood stains because it was not taped off. Why in the world it wasn't taped off I don't know. Just letting people walk up on the scene right where the perp was! and not only that there is recorded evidence of this happening, so yes a defense attorney will love that. It's not someone saying "someone walked up here" - it is on video.

It's always better to be safe than sorry when such a serious crime is being investigated. So, let's hope the inside of her house was treated more professionally. It's hard for people to have confidence when they see how the outside of the home was treated.

Even in this video Brian Entin says something to the effect 'now that the crime scene is cleared we can get a little closer.' (time stamp 2:30) This was on just day 3. They sent officers back there repeatedly after this. IMO the scene should have been shut off until they have their perp(s). Again, better to be safe than sorry when there could be a trial in the future. I thought roping off the scene was just basic LE protocol, but what do I know. I know I've watched a lot of trials and this could pose a problem or at the very least give the defense something to fire back with. Defense attorneys love to go after the police investigation. Try not to give them a reason to. No investigation is perfect because people are not perfect, but letting random people walk all over her property before she is found and before they have their perp(s) is concerning. Again, only my opinion.
edit: spelling error
JMO

Warning: Be careful letting the video play to the end. Chris Cuomo's voice at the end of News Nations videos is extremely loud. I always try to catch it before the end. lol

This is what I've been saying all along---and this is why I was soooo critical of LE. I agree, nobody needs to go there for anything---even the pool guys didn't need to be there. I understand maintenance---but can't that be done AFTER this has come to a resolution? Who's going to show up next? The cleaning lady?

Asking Chatgpt---how long was the house roped off with police tape in the Idaho murders

In the 2022 University of Idaho murders case (where four college students were stabbed to death in a house on King Road in Moscow, Idaho), the house served as an active crime scene and was roped off with police tape and secured by law enforcement for many weeks after the murders while evidence was gathered and the investigation continued. Authorities kept the property secured as they processed evidence, removed belongings for families, and restricted access to protect the scene.
The house stayed under law-enforcement control for nearly a month following the killings in November 2022, with police presence and crime-scene tape still in place into December 2022, as items were packed up and evidence handled.
Eventually, after law enforcement completed processing and families recovered belongings, the property was demolished on December 28, 2022 — about six weeks after the murders — which effectively ended the crime scene and any tape still on it.

 

[SaraSmile]

Totally a possibility, but the intruder(s) spent a fair amount of forethought putting together an ensemble that was tucked in, potentially multi-layered, removed cameras, brought a full backpack containing something bulky/puffy (took up the entire space and probably and fairly lightweight because it seems to stay put as the perp bends over -- if it was heavy, I would expect it to fall to one side more). Gems are not that big unless they are geodes. The blood trail seems to end at the front walkway so that insinuates that a car or vehicle of some kind was possibly backed up to the walkway. Just seems odd that such a seemingly planned event would wind up being them breaking into the wrong house. Whoops, what a big faux pas that would be. And then happenstancing onto NG alone (a female, whereas the gem expert is male) in the middle of night and deciding to remove her from the home. Wouldn't the just bolt from the house and leave NG there in whatever state if they were like oh shoot, wrong house, no gems here!? I think early on it was mentioned nothing was stolen, besides NG. Plus, I can't imagine this gem expert has prize gems just sitting on the coffee table like a paper weight. They'd probably be in a safe if there at all. Just because one studies something, doesn't mean they keep that thing in their house either. Just seems less likely of a scenario to me. The lantana man does seem to amble around and improvise with yard vegetation, but that doesn't mean that the event was not carefully planned.

Thanks for your input. Welcome!

jMO

 

[LRinCA]

Re: the gem show/gems collector neighbor theory -

I wonder how prominent the addresses on houses in NG's neighborhood are displayed. Given the desert terrain and the fact that it doesn't look like a structured HOA neighborhood, I'm guessing they aren't easily visible - especially in the middle of the night in a neighborhood with a light ordinance for stargazing.

 

[SaraSmile]

wish we knew which sample this is for. one might take "bloodline trace" as a hint it's presumed perp blood (i.e., from the house), but AFAIK we don't know whether any foreign DNA in the house was from a bodily fluid sample.

would be annoyed if it's one of the random gloves of unknown provenance.

Haha, I was thinking the same. The gloves seem so farfetched.

jMO

 

[SaraSmile]

Agreed. DNA inside the house is more likely to yield results relevant to the case than a glove found 2 miles away. I suppose the hope was that he threw it out the car window.

At this point, they are tracking down all leads, no matter how farfetched.

JMO

 

[GlobeFireCandle]

1000 POSTS LATER, people speculating on AI vs real images and 2 perps...I dont think there were 2 perps. As everyone knows by now, I have felt from the beginning this was a kidnapper who had a delusional fascination with SG. She is his fantasy girlfriend .He is a marginalized, socially inadequate, man who has a poetic soul and finds his meaning in life through movies and TV. He is fixated on SG. Probably has an area in his home, like an altar, that has her photo, articles about her etc. He thinks when she is on the TODAY show that every word she speaks is CODE, directed at him. He became restless and decided he must have her but he can't. He went for her mom, instead. NOW HE HAS SG's attention. He also has a trophy..SG's mom. He may also have other trophies he took from the home, family photos, or lingerie from SG's old bedroom, for example.

MOTIVE will solve this case, imo. Obsessed stalker. Someone knows him and his devotion to SG. Watching the Today show daily, saving every program she is on, perhaps mentioning her during casual conversations once too often. This is not a 2 perp crime. This guy acted alone. MOO JMO

I’ve read most of your posts and have to say you sound a little bit carried away with your theory! But having said that, I agree with some of it. - I think that is is a sole perp, the type of character you have described somewhat, however, I don’t think it is related to SG. I think it is someone who has been gearing up to commit an abduction and has picked out someone who he has seen as an easy target, isolated and vulnerable. He may be revelling in the attention but I don’t think that was part of the plan. I still think the ransom notes are a hoax, if they are from the actual kidnapper then they are part of a game not a genuine ransom demand.

 

[1.618]

People who live in Arizona seem to dress very warm in those temps. I'm one of them. If it gets to 60 I take a winter coat with me in the evening. I've seen roofers/landscape workers in the hottest Arizona temps wearing heavy clothing and neck balaclavas.

Same, Phoenician here. 60's is cold to me. And true roofer's landscapers do tend to wear full sleeves and pants even in the summer, but mostly those are single layer to provide some sun protection (i.e. they don't do it for warmth in 115 deg). But unless it's like Flagstaff at night, wearing potentially two layers over your face and likely multiple layers over your body whilst performing a heist while a person is in the home (which would be expected at a house with a car present in the middle of the night) seems likely a pretty stressful situation that would make most people hot and sweaty.

 

[warp3dwing]

I live in a city where you can get anything anytime. Except for lantana in February! I’ve grown it as an annual, but I suspect it’s a different variety.

Desert dwellers: is it typical for a sizeable segment of lantana to be so easily grabbed? It seemed dead or otherwise just lying in the garden bed. No pulling or tearing required to pick it up, like a golf tee. Is this weird or expected for this plant?

 

[windrower]

It's in this thread, but it's also here:
Post in thread 'Nancy Guthrie, 84, missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026 - MEDIA, MAPS, TIMELINE thread *NO DISCUSSION*' Nancy Guthrie, 84, missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026 - MEDIA, MAPS, TIMELINE thread *NO DISCUSSION*

Actually I was mistaken, now that I look it up the sheriff said that a neighbor called the same day she went missing. So who knows what they were thinking?

From the article:
During one lull in the story on Feb. 16, ***** spent time speculating about a business card that he had seen that was left on Nancy Guthrie’s front door. The card was from a case manager for Arizona’s Adult Protective Services division.

***** speculated that there might have been an open case of elder abuse.

There was not.

A Republic reporter saw the card on Feb. 3 while taking photographs at the front door. A reporter called the phone number listed. An agent said the card was left after Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance, not before.

It was left so Nancy Guthrie, an older adult who lived alone, could contact the agency if she needed services once she returned home safe.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2026/02/17/media-circus-nancy-guthrie-coverage/88683133007/

Thank you both.

I did miss where the info about the APS card was clarified, and appreciate being able to put that in the fact pile.

 

[Spectrix]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)

For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

 

[SMK777]

At this point, they are tracking down all leads, no matter how farfetched.

JMO

Yes, it would be remiss not to, I agree.

 

[SaraSmile]

Do you think the suspect forced entry or was able to access the home by other means?

If entry wasn’t forced, it might narrow down the possibilities. Was a key used? I know LE seldom releases that kind of info.

I thought the perp went in the back slider, whether locked or not, these are easy to get in.
Just an idea, NG locked the front door, but may have left a back door slider unlocked.
People often “ lock up” this way in safe neighborhoods.

JMO