AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Diddian]

Agree. Could be an airsoft due to the purported flood lights being damaged (shot them out?). Looks weird enough from the images that it could also be a stun gun of some sort.

JMO.

It doesn’t seem like an air gun projectile would have enough force to have done the damage that can be seen to the bricks behind the damaged floodlights. It looks like the backplate of the floodlights was forced back into the wall, like it was smashed by a sledgehammer.

https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/02/918/516/broken-flood-lights-nancy-guthrie-home.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

Source, image 3 of 4 in this article:

Nancy Guthrie's house equipped with floodlights; authorities probe alleged ransom note clues

The alleged ransom note in the case of missing 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie references a broken floodlight at her Tucson home, the FBI confirmed during its investigation.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Bodhi]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

Excellent analysis! It helps enormously. It'll help focus the discussion of that image. It provides context for LE's interest in video from specific dates within certain time frames.

 

[girlhasnoname]

I love a good Walmart video at trial

Same - I've stated many times good ole' Wally World has single handedly help convict many a criminal.

 

[Mistermagoo]

New TMZ video uploaded. Talking about possibilities of Nancy in Mexico (LE is treating it as a potential lead allegedly), note demanding a different type of crypto from bitcoin, refers to media as being a 'go-between'. New crypto account it sounds like, mentions FBI at the gun shops (sounds like a dead end according to their sources).

Well there it is.

 

[Napoli]

I feel like there were no organized ground searches in Tucson where the public was involved because the sheriff came out immediately and adamantly stated that this was an obvious abduction and not a case of an elderly woman wandering off. I think that statement alone pretty much put the kibosh on anyone from the public wanting to organize one of those grid type searches you often see take place in the case of a missing person.

There has also not been any statement that I am aware of, cautioning people, that there is an armed and dangerous man on the loose who presents a significant risk to the community. They knew from the beginning this was a narrow and focused kidnaping. JMO

 

[SlimPickens]

After posting my in depth analysis of the No-Backpack image, someone bought me Guardianship.
But I don't know who.

Thank you so much, kind person

Here is something else I was looking at, mask man's shoes appear to have a distinct two tone black/white sole:
(Source - original FBI video, my own captures)

View attachment 646273

First impression is that appears to be brand new shoes. Not a lot of folks maintain their laces like that (at least around these parts). Companies tend to lace with the first lace on top, whereas most folks in my experience change it to stringing that first lace under. Or maybe the kids these days do it that way? I'm not entirely certain.

JMO.

 

[mzufall]

There has also not been any statement that I am aware of, cautioning people, that there is an armed and dangerous man on the loose who presents a significant risk to the community. They knew from the beginning this was a narrow and focused kidnaping. JMO

I could be wrong and mixing up cases im following, but I think Nanos did make a statement toward the beginning that he did not believe there to be any danger to the community, that it was their belief this was targeted. Again, I could be wrong. But I THINK it was mentioned early on.

 

[Gemmie]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

I'm also not seeing a gun in front of his crotch. Cropped from the images in your EXCELLENT post. You can see it in the image on the right, but not the one on the left.

Here's the same image showing their entire bodies. Also noticed that the guy on the right has that head light thing on, the other guy does not.

 

[LetsSolvIt]

I find the timeline of this weird. Like surely the neighbor wouldn’t have called much earlier than AG? I’m not understanding a window where APS would’ve shown up and left a card. Bc it seems like LE would’ve already been on the scene, so wouldn’t APS have just checked in with LE? Why leave the card?

The only way this makes sense to me is if APS was there before cops were called. Bc even if they somehow would’ve arrived before LE, AG would’ve been there. Very tight window assuming the card was left bc no one else was at the house. MOO

Another thing to consider is that NG disappeared on a Sunday. I feel like a message left for APS would have been picked up on Monday morning and taken from there. OMO.

 

[SRWCF]

I could be wrong and mixing up cases im following, but I think Nanos did make a statement toward the beginning that he did not believe there to be any danger to the community, that it was their belief this was targeted. Again, I could be wrong. But I THINK it was mentioned early on.

I remember that, as well.

 

[warp3dwing]

There has also not been any statement that I am aware of, cautioning people, that there is an armed and dangerous man on the loose who presents a significant risk to the community. They knew from the beginning this was a narrow and focused kidnaping. JMO

Similar to the Tepe murder case in Columbus, IMO. I hypothesized that they had a stalker, and I was worried that other Columbusites may be in harm's way. I was only half correct: the Tepes did have a stalker, but a very targeted one. The public wasn't actually at risk and LE likely knew it very quickly.

 

[stmichael]

If the abductor arrived by vehicle, wouldn't someone on NG's street would have ring camera footage? Maybe it didn't pick up the license plate number but maybe they have a make, model and color? How long was it before LE released the info about the white Hyundai Elantra in the BK case?

A few of us who live in a similar neighbor hood set-up discussed this point. My cameras all around my property would not reach out into the street. You can see in the Nest footage, when the suspect is further back w/o the backpack on how blurry and washed out in the camera's IR glow he is.

Between the unusual Tucson low-light ordinance making the neighborhood "shockingly dark" (as one ex-FBI agent on scene said), the landscaping/vegetation and the set-back, spaced out neighbors camera would not record the street (and I believe some have interviewed saying that).

What further complicates this, besides no street light or cameras in the neighborhood, is that nearby major roads only have DOT cameras that do not record. The police doesn't control or record the intersection/street cams in Tucson.

 

[BellaToothless]

I thought that camera was at, and/or facing the rear or side of the house, maybe installed on the roof of the pool house type building? Happy to stand corrected though.

JMO

Yes you are correct. Apologies. I deleted post. It was a camera on guest house looking over back yard.

 

[Gunther Toody]

Sometimes its unfortunate that the local agency takes the lead in criminal cases.
I think this is probably the biggest case this Sheriff has ever been involved in as the lead. Consequently, priorities that you think should be obvious were not followed.
For example, sending the glove to a DNA lab in Florida, which took a week to return results, instead of giving it to the FBI, who would have done so in a day or so.

And again, focusing on finding DNA hoping it will lead to the criminal when there is a medically compromised 84 year old woman whose life is at stake.

You are probably right about that. I think a ground search by the public in the early days certainly wouldn't have hurt the investigation. I mean, in situations such as these, people really, really want to help and this would have been a good way to allow that to happen.

As a sidenote, I had a dream the other night that they found NG alive and she was being hidden in the desert in an underground tunnel / cave. This means I'm either a visionary, or I'm consuming too much social media on this case!

 

[Recidivist]

You are probably right about that. I think a ground search by the public in the early days certainly wouldn't have hurt the investigation. I mean, in situations such as these, people really, really want to help and this would have been a good way to allow that to happen.

As a sidenote, I had a dream the other night that they found NG alive and she was being hidden in the desert in an underground tunnel / cave. This means I'm either a visionary, or I'm consuming too much social media on this case!

No. You are not. There are many elaborate tunnels running underground between border states and Mexico built by the cartels. They are lighted and some they have found had air conditioning. I personally think she went through or is in a tunnel. imo imo

 

[warp3dwing]

I'm also not seeing a gun in front of his crotch. Cropped from the images in your EXCELLENT post. You can see it in the image on the right, but not the one on the left.

View attachment 646278

Here's the same image showing their entire bodies. Also noticed that the guy on the right has that head light thing on, the other guy does not.

View attachment 646279

In the backpackless image, the suspect's physique is more apparent to me: a slight paunch/gut and not much in the way of pecs. The sort of skinny-fat look those of us in our 30s and 40s struggle to fight!

 

[Chimera]

I could be wrong and mixing up cases im following, but I think Nanos did make a statement toward the beginning that he did not believe there to be any danger to the community, that it was their belief this was targeted. Again, I could be wrong. But I THINK it was mentioned early on.

Bbm.
Agreed with your comment, that's what I recall from early on ?
There's the possibility that the wrong house was targeted if gems were sought-- but still a planned abduction and not random, imo.

 

[Soccer Hooligan]

I feel like there were no organized ground searches in Tucson where the public was involved because the sheriff came out immediately and adamantly stated that this was an obvious abduction and not a case of an elderly woman wandering off. I think that statement alone pretty much put the kibosh on anyone from the public wanting to organize one of those grid type searches you often see take place in the case of a missing person.

I can see the reasoning behind this - but dang — someone might have found something!! Anything.

 

[densogirl]

JMO I think the person who entered the house went there to kidnap NG and succeeded. The bag may have held items he might need to capture and keep her silent.

 

[MistyWaters]

I find the timeline of this weird. Like surely the neighbor wouldn’t have called much earlier than AG? I’m not understanding a window where APS would’ve shown up and left a card. Bc it seems like LE would’ve already been on the scene, so wouldn’t APS have just checked in with LE? Why leave the card?

The only way this makes sense to me is if APS was there before cops were called. Bc even if they somehow would’ve arrived before LE, AG would’ve been there. Very tight window assuming the card was left bc no one else was at the house. MOO

It’s reasonable that APS is alerted by LE whenever a senior is reported missing, a mandated procedure. Just because the card was left in the door doesn’t necessarily indicate no one was at the house, just that they weren’t invited in to talk family members who were present so the agent left their calling card. Understandably, APS intervention was not a priority then or now.
JMO

How long has Nancy Guthrie been missing? See updated timeline of case

The 'Today' host's mother remains missing amid a desperate search.

www.usatoday.com

“That morning, Guthrie failed to show up at a friend's house to watch a church service online, as she routinely did, so they called her daughter, Annie, who lives nearby, a source close to the family told NBC News.

At 11:56 a.m., the family arrived to check on her, calling 911 at 12:03 to report her missing. Patrol cars arrived at 12:15 p.m. and the search for Guthrie begins.