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  • #34,621
Does anyone know how low a helicopter needs to fly for a signal sniffer?
Could they use a drone?
I was just thinking they should put them on drones. I'm also unsure what areas they have already searched. There was a map in here earlier today (I'm sorry I can't remember who posted it) that showed a flight path in the Tucson area and I'm wondering if more area has been covered.
 
  • #34,622
  • #34,623
DBM
 
  • #34,624
Was the Gem Neighbour away that night that NG disappeared? Would explain if they had the wrong house and were not expecting anyone. If they were home, then that is irrelevant.

Edit to clarify
 
  • #34,625
I was just thinking they should put them on drones. I'm also unsure what areas they have already searched. There was a map in here earlier today (I'm sorry I can't remember who posted it) that showed a flight path in the Tucson area and I'm wondering if more area has been covered.
Take a read of this article. Search for the word "drone" within the article and some interesting info comes up.

 
  • #34,626
And that neighbor purportedly runs a large gem show in the area. So maybe it was right wifi wrong house?

JMO.
I don’t think this is likely if we are assuming at least some of the ransom notes were legitimate. I would also think there is probably some logical middle ground between “oops we robbed the wrong house” and “better kidnap the sole occupant and hold her for ransom.”

JMO
 
  • #34,627
  • #34,629
I guess I can't hold it against LE for still offering/conducting them, but polygraphs (personally) mean nothing to me, more or less. I know LE swears they use them to "help weed everyone out", but also it's pretty well-established that they're borderline meaningless, which is why they're not allowed as evidence in anything that counts for anything.

So. If they're giving people polygraphs, good for them, I guess. I hope it gives them data they can use. To me this just means they don't know for sure who did this and are hoping to stress someone out enough to make a mistake (totally reasonable and fair; also has NOTHING to do with whether or not polygraphs work as claimed).
 
  • #34,630
Not too happy to hear this as polygraph rests are not fully reliable.
There is a reason they are not admissible in court and nobody should ever agree to take one---even if innocent.
my thoughts exactly

an officer did tell me once that he liked using it because just the thought of taking it makes some people so nervous that they'll confess before the test even begins. but, that was many years ago before the internet really stressed how unreliable the test is. and besides, that tactic definitely won't work on everyone (a psychopath for example is very unlikely to experience such a high level of anxiety that they would confess. and they'd be likely able to fool the test as well and then be cleared.)

moo
 
  • #34,631
  • #34,632
  • #34,633
Thanks.
So let me understand...
Cameras outside detected movement around the outside of the house, right?
Then her pacemaker goes off comms at 2 something, which is probably when she is out of range of the signal.

How does that place him in the house for over 40 minutes?
At times I've thought that lantana guy spent some of that time trying to break in. At other times, I've thought that an accomplice was already in the house.

JMO
 
  • #34,634
Was thinking the 2:12 was the software notification that a person was spotted by a camera . Could be one of the outside cameras we saw removed but the 2:28 disconnect was when pacemaker either lost bluetooth as it updated? was it determined it notified you every minute or every few minutes.
I can leave my bluetooth area and return and my device doesn't know until my phone tries to send data every 5 minutes. This is a cgm not a pacemaker thou. Would 2:28 notification have some wiggle room as being exact time she left her bluetooth area or when her app tried to connect to receive data?
So is that 16 minutes max inside if 2:12 was still an outside camera. I would think inside cameras if she had any..didn't have notifications enabled because she walks around inside and those phone software notifications pings would drive her crazy. and also because the sheriff time line never mentioned any notifications of her walking inside other than garage opening and closing. Only giving us the 2:12 one from a camera..

I don't believe it was the doorcam because I thought sheriff described 1:47 was time the doorcam was disabled meaning destroyed or battery removed ..
But the sheriff was vague at times.
My take based on what was provided to us:

Doorcam disconnected at 1:47. FBI states that the footage released to us was doorbell cam moments prior to disconnect. So figure footage was from around 1:35-1:40 AM give or take.

2:12 was motion detected by another camera somewhere on the property. It was probably the time the perp(s) walked around to the back of the house. Or maybe the time a car pulled into the driveway for getaway.

NG pace maker disconnects around 2:28 +- 4 minutes. So from the time they entered the house to taking her was probably only 10-15 minutes.

IMO
 
Last edited:
  • #34,635
Didn’t Brian Entin said on Monday the next 24-48 hours may be interesting? MOO bc I can’t remember where I saw that.

If so, interesting the polygraphs are happening 48 hrs ish from Mon.

MOO
Indeed he did:
[/td]​
WFLA Live, which is still streaming as of Monday, February 16 at 1:50 PM Eastern, had Brian Entin on earlier. Brian Entin said he believes this case will be solved and advised everyone to watch the next 24 to 48 hours closely. I can’t provide a timestamp yet because the broadcast is still live.
[td]



[/td]​
We're nearing that deadline.
 
  • #34,636
If they disconnected / cut power to the door camera in advance then they wouldn't have any hesitation going to the front door.
I believe they didn't anticipate that door camera to be working.

Nancy was obviously taken out of the front door of her home, either alive or deceased, because of her blood trail leading away from her front door toward the front driveway area. 😢
Can they tell by the blood spatter/cells if it came from someone alive and how recent?
 
  • #34,637
<snipped>
Minutes before that emailed release, the lawyer for a mother and her son confirmed to Arizona’s Family that they were subjects of two search warrants issued and served last Friday. Attorney Chris Scileppi said the pair were detained while the search warrants were being executed, but later released with no arrests made.
 
  • #34,638
There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:
  • "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
  • "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
  • "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
  • "It's a different person altogether"
I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:
  • The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
  • There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
  • The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
  • The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
  • No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time
  • Without meta data we don't know the date/time
  • We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
  • It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
  • It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos
  • It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
  • It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification
Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

Best post I've seen! Great work
 
  • #34,639
“Nanos said the Guthrie family has cooperated with investigators.

"We really put them through the wringer," Nanos said. "We not just interview them, we take their cars, we take their houses, we take their phones, all this stuff — and we're not taking it. They're giving it to us voluntarily. They have been 100% cooperative with us through everything we've asked. They are victims. They are not suspects."

 
  • #34,640
Some people may think these types of Google Trends results are meaningless. I, personally, do not think that they can be explained away.
Same 😅
 

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